Last update: Tue Oct 20 05:16:00 2009 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timeswith some help from PECOTA
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections). And the ELO version of this report, based on an ELO rating scheme. July 4 - updated player performance rates (not just playing time) in the depth charts, and fed those results into the expected win% for pecota projected standings.
Generated Mon Oct 5 10:45:41 EDT 2009
Average wins by position in AL East: 103.0 95.0 84.0 75.0 64.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 103 59 .605 103.0 59.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Red Sox 95 67 .604 95.0 67.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Rays 84 78 .541 84.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 75 87 .466 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 64 98 .457 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in AL Central: 87.0 86.0 79.0 65.0 65.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 86 76 .482 86.5 76.5 45.89310 .00000 45.89310 Twins 86 76 .484 86.5 76.5 54.10690 .00000 54.10690 White Sox 79 83 .551 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Indians 65 97 .474 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 65 97 .490 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in AL west: 97.0 87.0 85.0 75.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Angels 97 65 .518 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rangers 87 75 .472 87.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 85 77 .414 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 75 87 .432 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 95.0Average wins by position in NL East: 93.0 87.0 86.0 70.0 59.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 93 69 .569 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Marlins 87 75 .524 87.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 86 76 .604 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 70 92 .507 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 59 103 .466 59.0 103.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.0 83.0 80.0 78.0 74.0 62.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 91 71 .556 91.0 71.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cubs 83 78 .525 83.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Brewers 80 82 .480 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 78 84 .441 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Astros 74 88 .467 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 62 99 .362 62.0 99.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL West: 95.0 92.0 88.0 75.0 70.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 95 67 .536 95.0 67.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rockies 92 70 .533 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Giants 88 74 .495 88.0 74.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 75 87 .410 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 70 92 .516 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.0
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.