The Angels came into tonight’s game on the brink of elimination, but their chins remain high despite the formidable task of having to win three straight against the Red Sox in order to advance to the ALCS. Rookie shortstop Brandon Wood, veteran pitcher Darren Oliver, and Angels’ broadcaster Mark Gubicza offered their perspectives on the Halos’ two-games-to-none deficit prior to tonight’s game at Fenway Park.
Gubicza on the Angels-Red Sox series thus far: “What it’s come down to is that the Red Sox have been able to put up some key at-bats to get some key hits with two outs – they’ve knocked in eight or nine runs with two outs. The Angels inability to get hits with guys in scoring position has really hurt them. You have to give a credit to the Red Sox pitchers for bearing down, but you also have to have a little better approach; I think the Angels have been a little too aggressive so far at the plate.”
Gubicza on Mike Scioscia saying, “We haven’t seen what won us 100 games out there”: “I talked to him before the start of the series, and he said he thought this was his best club, one through 25, that he’s ever had. Of course, they won in 2002, and that was a pretty solid club. They just haven’t been able to get on base and create opportunities to score. They’re the best in the business going first to third, and situational hitting, but while they’re getting hits out of their three-four-five guys – Teixeira, Vlad and Torii Hunter – they haven’t got any extra-base hits out of those guys. I guess that’s what he means right now.”
Gubicza any ingredients the Angels may lack: “I think they’ve got everything, really. They’ve got speed, they’ve got power; I think their key guy is Chone Figgins. How he gets on base is how they score. When he was out for awhile, they didn’t score and weren’t stealing bases. They have to be more aggressive as far as running the bases and stealing bags when they get an opportunity. They haven’t made some key pitches, too. They gave up four runs in the first inning the other day, and you can’t do that against a team like the Red Sox.”
Gubicza on how being down 0-2 in a 3-game series affects the psyche of a team: “Just talking to the guys on the plane and in the bus, they still feel their confidence. I was in that situation with Kansas City back in 1985; we were down 0-2 against the Blue Jays, and again against the Cardinals. But we had George Brett to say that we had them just where we wanted them, and just that little confidence-relaxing saying got us through. They need somebody here to do that, and I think they have that type of guy in Torri Hunter. He’s a guy who’s been in the playoffs, but he hasn’t won a World Series either. They need a guy to clutch up and get a big base hit for them, and he might be the guy to do that.”
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Wood on what it’s like to be in the postseason for the first time: “It’s my first time coming to Boston, and being here, and being in the playoffs – I know that the atmosphere is going to be great here tonight. Walking down that tunnel from the clubhouse, you can almost smell and feel 100 years of baseball and the great players that have been here.”
Wood on the Angels being down 0-2 in the series: “This is my first experience, and I don’t know how it’s been in the past, but everybody is loose in the clubhouse. This is obviously a must-win, but the season isn’t over. Everybody feels like we still have a great opportunity. I don’t think you can change. You can’t walk into the clubhouse and be tense, and not smile, and not have fun, because this is what the game is all about. There’s obviously a little more importance to this game than other games during the year, but I don’t think you can wake up in the morning and change what you’re used to. You have to just come out and play hard.”
Wood on his season from a personal standpoint: “For me, it was a tough start in Triple-A. I had a couple of bad months where I was figuring some stuff out, but then I turned it around ever since about the all-star break. Ever since then, I think I’ve been where I need to be.”
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Oliver on the mood in the Angels’ clubhouse: “It’s still the same, man. Every game is different, and you just play the game, game-to-game; just like they’re taking it one game at a time, so are we. We know that we’re down 0-2, but you still have to win one game; you don’t even worry about the next game. We’re about the task at hand.”
Oliver on his season from a personal standpoint “I mean, it’s always good to go out there and help the team get to the postseason, and that’s what we did this year. But as far as anything else, it’s not really a complete success until we get a lot farther into the postseason. That’s what it’s all about.”
Baseball always brings its share of notable fans to the ballpark, and Fenway Park is no exception tonight as the Red Sox try to close out the Angels in Game 3 of the ALDS. Among those in the house is bestselling author, and hardcore baseball fan, Stewart O’Nan. O’Nan, whose most recent novel is “Last Night at the Lobster,” shared a few thoughts prior to the game.
O’Nan on the Angels-Red Sox series thus far: “I’m not that surprised, in a way. But I am a little surprised that the Angels offense hasn’t put a lot of runs on the board, because I think that Hunter and Teixeira have really beefed up the middle of that lineup. I’m a little shocked that their six-through-nine guys are doing absolutely nothing. Back in the old days, at least they had a guy like Casey Kotchman getting up there and doing something. But it’s only two games. Think back to 2004, where Bellhorn and Damon did nothing for the first four or five games. So, I’d say it’s not over. Tonight is the test. If Beckett is strong, the Red Sox could go a long way in the playoffs. If he’s not strong, they have to ride Lester as long as they can.”
O’Nan on this year’s Mark Bellhorn: “JD Drew is Bellhorn. I think that Bellhorn inhabits him, just with a bad back. Obviously, the granny against Cleveland last year, and the two-run dinger in the ninth inning — he also has Bellhorn’s ability to stand and watch pitch after pitch after pitch, and then sit down. And, like Bellhorn, he’s occasionally booed. He’s definitely Bellhorn.”
NOTES FROM THE PREGAME PRESS CONFERENCES:
Terry Francona on Coco Crisp replacing JD Drew in tonight’s lineup: “JD is physically doing pretty well…I know that normally you get to this time of the year and just stay with it. I don’t know that the way we’re built right now, that is the best way for us to do it. Coco’s had some pretty good at-bats against (Joe Saunders). I just think sometimes we need to try to do what’s right for the ballclub, and it maybe it is different than we’ve done in the past. I think we have to recognize some of the things that have happened to our team physically. It’s not something I think with trepidation.”
Mike Scioscia on Aquaman: “No, Aquaman, like I said, he’s got cement flippers. So he’s swimming somewhere with the fish right now. But we’re loose. I think there’s a focus that our team has. This is not, obviously, the position you ever envision being in as you get into a series, but it’s where we’ve put ourselves.”
Just some thoughts in advance of tonight’s Brewers/Phillies game:
Dave Bush gets a closeup, and while Bush has, in the past, been a pitcher I pushed as a sleeper candidate, an underrated hurler, etc., I’m not sure this is the time to tout him as someone who might surprise this evening. Since a strong 2006 season, Bush’s peripherals have been slipping, with his strikeout rate and home-run rate going in opposite directions, leaving him a back-end starter rather than a #3 with #2 upside. You can ski on his Stuff scores: from 21 to 14 to 6 in three years. He survived this year on a very low BABIP (.238), and his problems with lefty batters (.244/.308/.473) could give him trouble against the Phillies’ lineup core. In six career starts against the Phillies-here’s your grain of salt-Bush has allowed 10 homers. Carlos Villanueva might be warming up right now.
The Brewers bats haven’t been good, with four singles, three doubles and five walks in two games. That’s it. They’re not quite as HR-dependent as the White Sox are, but they do need to hit some long balls if they’re going to win. The matchup of Jamie Moyer-despite his history of being effective against right-handed batters-is as good as it will get for the Brewers in this series. They have to take advantage of the situation.
The Phillies are 2-0 in this series without getting a ton from Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. The two are 1-for-12 with six walks the “1″ being Utley’s double Wednesday off of Mike Cameron. In what could well be a high-scoring affair tonight, with two good offensive teams facing #3 starters in a hitters’ park, what the Phillies get from their two best hitters could be a key to whether we see a Game Four in this series.
I can’t help but wonder, should the Brewers not win three straight games here, if it will have been worth it for them. Was it worth Matt LaPorta, a couple of other prospects, and the cash they paid Sabathia to have the September they had, and a couple of postseason home games? The cash will cancel out, so it just comes down to the question of whether the six years of LaPorta at below-market cost was worth it. We say, all the time, that flags fly forever; trading the future to win a championship is just something you have to do sometimes. But what happens when what you trade for is just a naked flagpole?
I don’t know if there’s a right answer. I just think the question is interesting.
Carlos Pena scratched his eye on Sunday and had blurry vision today. He was removed and will be re-assessed before tomorrow’s game. As for the other Carlos in the series, Carlos Quentin was, as expected, not on the White Sox playoff roster. Sources tell me that he is a longshot at best for the ALCS.
Watching the Dodgers-Cubs game last night, one of the announcers discussed how much better Andre Ethier was hitting since Manny Ramirez came to the team. That’s something we can test, so I asked Eric Seidman to take a look at this through the lens of Pitch F/X. His findings follow:
Andre Ethier recently said that he felt he was seeing better pitches with Manny Ramirez batting behind him. The same was speculated regarding Jeff Kent, when he hit before ManRam. What does better pitches mean? More carefully placed pitches? Less junk? The best I can figure, better pitches refers to both a higher percentage of fastballs and an overall higher percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone, regardless of type. To test this, I looked at the Pitch F/X data for Ethier from 3/31 to 8/27, when he was not hitting ahead of Manny, and compared it to the data from 8/28 until the end of the season, when Manny was protecting him. Here are the results:
Pre-Hitting Before Manny
Fastballs: 61.7%
Cu/Sl: 23.7%
Changeup: 14.6%
Pitches per PA: 3.75 Pitches in the Generous Strike Zone: 55.5%
Hitting Before Manny
Fastballs: 62.7%
Cu/Sl: 23.0%
Changeup: 14.3%
Pitches per PA: 4.32 Pitches in the Generous Strike Zone: 56.6%
Essentially, nothing has changed. There was a shift in his curveballs or sliders seen but that is more likely a byproduct of the pitchers he was facing rather than any type of game strategy. He saw virtually the same amount of fastballs and same percentage of pitches in a pretty generous strike zone before hitting in front of Manny and after. It might seem like he is seeing better pitches but it could be some type of placebo effect. Then again, if you define “better pitches” differently, let me know and I’ll run more tests. - Eric Seidman
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UPDATE: Eric adds: “One aspect of seeing better pitches that this would not measure is when they are thrown. In theory, a guy with a 3-2 count and Michael Bourn on deck could see a tricky slider designed to strike him out, but which may walk him. With Manny, they don’t want to put someone on ahead of him, so Ethier may be more likely to see fastballs in these types of situations. Given his increase in pitches per PA batting ahead of Manny he is also exhibiting more patience at the plate and working the count, quite possibly into his favor.”
PHILADELPHIA _ The Brewers have decided on using right-hander Dave Bush in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Phillies after originally listing their starter for Saturday night’s game at Miller Park as “undecided.” Bush will oppose Philadelphia’s Jamie Moyer. The Brewers had been holding off on announcing Bush as the until they saw if they would need him to pitch in long relief of starter Yovani Gallardo in Game 1 on Wednesday. However, Gallardo was able to get through four innings despite pitching just 24 1/3 innings during the regular season because of two knee surgeries.
No word yet on who would start a potential Game 4 on Sunday, though the most likely matchup is Joe Blanton going for the Phillies against Seth McClung or Jeff Suppan, with McClung likely getting the nod if he is not needed to used in relief in Games 2 or 3. With a potential Game 5 scheduled for Tuesday in Philadlephia, Sabathia would be able to come back on a normal four days of rest for the Brewers after pitching on three days of rest for the fourth straight time Thursday night in Game 2 and would face fellow left-hander Cole Hamels, who allowed two hits in eight shutout innings in a Game 1 victory Wednesday.
–Much is being made of the Phillies having to face Sabathia, the Brewers’ ace, in Game 2 tonight and it is a big task. However, it should be noted that Phillies right fielder Jayson Werth led all major-leaguers with 16 home runs off left-handed pitchers in the regular season and first baseman Ryan Howard was third with 14. The Phillies hit .257/.337/.464 against lefties in the regular season as opposed to .255/.330/.426 against right-handers.
–The Brewers are proof positive that you need a little bit of luck to get to the playoffs. The Brewers won the NL wild card by one game over the Mets and part of the reason is that they led the major leauges with 28 victories in their last at bat and also went 28-17 in one-run games for a winning percentage of .622 that was tops in the majors.
PHILADELPHIA _ Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell is in the lineup for Game 1 of the NLDS on Wednesday against the Brewers after he felt no pain while taking pre-game batting practice. Burrell strained his back on his final swing of batting practice during Tuesday’s workout at Citizens Bank Park and was questionable for Wednesday’s game. If Burrell wouldn’t have been able to play then right fielder Jayson Werth would have moved to left field and Matt Stairs would have started in right field.
Also, Brewers right-hander Yovani Gallardo is only the second pitcher in major-league history to start a postseason game after having a 0-0 record in the regular season. Gallardo, limited to 24 1/3 innings this year because of two knee surgeries, joined Virgil Trucks, who started Games 2 and 6 of the 1945 World Series for the Tigers against the White Sox after missing most of the regular season while serving in the military. Trucks went 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA, allowing five earned runs in 13 1/3 innings after pitching just once in the regular season and missing all of the 1944 season.
Gallardo made four starts in the regular season, the fewest by a pitcher to open a post-season season since Larry Gura started Game 1 of the 1976 American League Championship Series for the Royals against the Yankees after making two starts and 18 relief appearances that year. Gura started twice in the series and went 0-1 with a 4.22 ERA, giving up five earned runs in 10 2/3 innings.
Having home-field in this series could be big for the Phillies as they went 48-33 at Citizens Bank Park in the regular season, their second-highest number of home wins in the last 15 years behind only the 49 they won at Veterans Stadium in 2003. The Phillies had a plus-74 run differential at home compared to plus-45 on the road. The Phillies also hit an NL-high 109 home runs at home.
Proving there are seemingly no more hard feelings about him giving up the 1993 World Series-losing home run to the Blue Jays‘ Joe Carter, former Phillies closer Mitch Williams got a huge ovation from the crowd when he threw out a ceremonial first pitch. The Wild Thing, now a popular figure on the Phillies’ post-game television show, jokingly threw his first pitch halfway up the backstop.
While I won’t be in Tampa — and no, I don’t know if they’ll play BP Fantasy Friday during Game 2 — I will be watching. If you’re in the Indianapolis area and want to watch with me, I’ll be at the Oaken Barrel in Greenwood. Email me for details.
For the last few years, Baseball Prospectus has had a happy and productive partnership with the New York Sun, contributing content to what has been one of the best–if not simply the best–sports page found in any daily paper in this country. Sadly, today is the last day of the Sun’s publication, an unhappy end to what had been a glorious enterprise.
Admittedly, there’s the risk of seeming a bit overly self-referential in commending the Sun on the quality of its writing team in sports. It has been my pleasure to work with many of the Sun’s contributors in past projects, either here at BP or in my previous incarnation as an acquisitions editor: Allen Barra, John Hollinger, Sean Lahman, Jonah Keri, Aaron Schatz. From among the BP stable, the Sun has published the writing of Steven Goldman, Kevin Goldstein, Will Carroll, Jay Jaffe, Caleb Peiffer, Marc Normandin, and even a few odds and ends by me. These are authors most of you know and enjoy, and to bring them all together on a single sports page was and remains something of an ideal.
Key to making that relationship as fruitful as it had been was our editor at the Sun, Geoff Foster, as well as his tireless associate, Jayanthi Daniel. We can only wish them the best in their futures, knowing that, for a brief while, there was a print paper singularly delivering the kind of quality the audience deserves from a daily newspaper. It was a fine attempt that reflected Geoff’s ambition and vision, and it was an honor for those of us here at BP who participated to be given the opportunity to take part. Godspeed, good luck, and most of all, thank you.
Step away from the ledge, Yankees fans. Rivera should recover from this surgery fine. He has a small calcification (ie, bone spur) in his acromioclavicular joint. A procedure known as a Mumford will be done to shave down the bone and spur, opening up the joint space and freeing the structures to move normally.
There’s a great comp here - Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman had the procedure before the 2007 season and showed no ill effects once he returned. Hoffman and Rivera share many things and they’ll likely both visit Cooperstown together someday, but now they’ll share a shoulder procedure as well.
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Transaction of the Day: Beating the Deadline by Weeks