I was thinking about Brooks Kieschnick the other day (don’t ask) and got to wondering why more teams don’t employ — or at least try to employ — two-way players, guys who can provide some utility on the mound as well as at the plate and in the field. Granted, it’s difficult enough to acquire the skills necessary to survive at the big-league level as a hitter or a pitcher, but given the modern tendency toward larger staffs (and hence smaller benches), wouldn’t it make sense for teams to try and develop another Kieschnick?
Aside from the challenges inherent in actually developing a two-way player, there is also the matter of risk, which always accompanies innovation. Perhaps, like batting the pitcher eighth, this falls into the novelty category and it will never gain widespread acceptance because if it doesn’t work (or is perceived not to work, a la Boston’s “closerless bullpen” from a few years ago), the public — not to mention the folks responsible for implementing such an idea — won’t soon hear the end of it.
It’s amazing the things that can kill innovative thinking.
Looking back further, I’m reminded of Rick Rhoden, who once served as DH for the Yankees in a June 1988 contest against the Orioles (he batted seventh, grounding to third and driving home Jay Buhner on a sac fly in two trips to the plate, both against Jeff Ballard… an excellent pitcher against whom to deploy another pitcher as DH, but that’s a story for some other day). Rhoden was — and still is (he has played golf profesionally for many years since retiring from baseball) — a tremendous athlete who might have been able to help his teams in multiple capacities had it not been for childhood osteomyelitis that resulted in limited range of motion in his right leg.
Earlier in his career, while a member of the Pirates, Rhoden teamed with Don Robinson, another good hitting pitcher. (In 1982, Pittsburgh’s pitchers outhomered its center fielders — one of the many joys of starting Omar Moreno every day).
Robinson, who battled injuries throughout his career, might also have made a good two-way player if not for his own chronic leg problems. He hit .231/.252/.330 in 665 plate appearances, knocking 13 home runs in the process. Not great, but certainly respectable for a guy who wasn’t employed to do that sort of thing. Presumably Robinson could have honed his skills and gotten better results had hitting represented a more significant part of his job.
Still, on the final day of the 1984 regular season, Robinson must have enjoyed himself in Philadelphia. In the first game of a doubleheader, he struck out the side in order in the ninth to notch his 10th save of the year. Then in the nightcap, he went 1-for-3 with an RBI while batting third and playing left field.
There may well be solid reasons for not trying to develop two-way players — the necessary skill set is hard to find and develop (guys who are good enough at either are already doing either), we might look like idiots if it doesn’t work, etc. But it seems to me that a player that can fill multiple roles with a single roster spot should have value.
Besides, having someone on the bench who might work the seventh or pinch-hit for whoever worked the seventh is just plain fun. I like to think there’s still room for that in baseball.
When the Red Sox acquired Jeremy Hermida from the Marlins this afternoon, in exchange for young lefthanders Jose Alvarez and Hunter Jones, they brought on board a 25-year-old outfielder whose promise has thus far outshown his production. After a strong 2007 campaign where he hit .296/.369/.501 with 18 home runs, Hermidia has seen his numbers decline over the past two seasons, most notably his SLG, which bottomed out this year at .392. Theo Epstein talked about the hopes he has for his new acquisition in a conference call earlier this evening.
Epstein on the trade: “This is not a blockbuster. It’s a value trade and a chance to get a guy with unfulfilled potential at a reasonable cost. I don’t think we can draw grand conclusions about our offseason, or the offseason in Major League Baseball, with this one transaction. It’s just a small move, and I’m sure that there will be increased activity with a lot of clubs once we get to the general managers’ meetings.”
On Hermida’s health issues: “That’s one of the things that has held him back and has prevented him from reaching his potential. But most of the injuries that he has had have been soft-tissue types of injuries, nothing that should be chronic — nothing structural that should impair him going forward. Often times, young players, when they get hurt early in their careers, it really hampers them. As they move closer to their prime, and mature a little bit, some figure out how to stay on the field and that helps them to reach their potential. Others don’t. We’ll see what happens with Jeremy.”
On Hermida’s declining production: “I just think he hasn’t really put everything together offensively yet. If you look back at 2007, as a 23-year-old, he had a really solid season and was starting to fulfill the promise he had showed in the minor leagues. He’s got a lot of offensive tools, and he’s got a sound approach and a good swing, and he’s got some power. I think that the last two years there were high expectations, and it didn’t come together for him. He was nagged by some small injuries, and his performance certainly hasn’t been as good the last few years as it was in 2007. I can tell you that that’s the reason we were able to acquire him today. Had he maintained that performance, or had linear progression from 2007 until today, there‘s no way we would have been trading for him today, let alone in this kind of a deal. So, he‘s a guy who needs to figure it out, and needs to get straightened out, to reach his potential, and I think that there‘s a chance that he will. It may not happen, or it may not happen with us, but we‘ve had really good scouting reports on him, and we like the way that he controls the strike zone, and we certainly liked him a lot as an amateur and throughout his minor league career. Taking those factors, we thought it was certainly a reasonable deal.”
The team went all-in on an extended strategy based on getting CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. Say what you will about Brian Cashman or the Steinbrenner family, it worked.
It’s the Series that capped the season, a real fall classic that comes at just the right time. 2009 didn’t have drama or records, but it was a combination of talent, market size, and economy that pushed the World Series and the playoffs to solid TV ratings and a mindshare that competed with the NFL. Who’d have thought we’d be talking about a ratings surge in one sport and a possible apocalyptic strike in another and have the positives going to baseball?
Maybe Joe Girardi does overmanage. Maybe Alex Rodriguez really is a choker Centaur. Maybe the new Stadium doesn’t have ghosts. What they all have now is a new championship banner and a set of rings on the way. Whether this was for George (as Selig said) or for their fans, #27 was memorable.
(Congrats to Hideki Matsui on the World Series MVP. Well deserved and a nice going away gift, perhaps. I still would have voted for Chase Utley, but I won’t quibble with Matsui.)
We were just here, weren’t we? Pedro Martinez taking the mound at Yankee Stadium in the World Series, facing off against the team that became his archenemy in the 2000s, in front of a crowd that hates him as much as it respects him.
It feels different, though, and not just because it’s a bit chillier, a bit more November. It’s not just the difference in the series, although that’s part of the equation. Martinez, who worked Game Two with house money and a chance to give the Phillies a chokehold on a repeat title, now takes the mound in an elimination game against a team that has scored 21 runs since we left them and, despite a loss in Game Five, looks more like the team that scored 915 runs during the regular season than it has in these playoffs.
Maybe we’re just jaded, having seen the act in Game Two and walked away impressed, but not wowed. Martinez got through the Yankees on guile last week, giving up two big solo home runs and two singles after he should have been excused from the premises, and while it was entertaining and skillful, it wasn’t the kind of performance that leaves you breathless. Martinez was effective, not dominant, and the task in front of him tonight is much more difficult. Having hamstrung his lineup in that first game, Joe Girardi tonight runs out the starters, with Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada instead of Jerry Hairston Jr. and Jose Molina, and Brett Gardner playing center field for the injured Melky Cabrera. The Yankees start seven left-handed batters or switch-hitters, and the other two guys can play a little. As mentioned, Martinez’s bag of tricks doesn’t work quite so well against one of those groups; he struck out 30% of the right-handed batters he faced in 2009, and just 11% of the lefties. Lefties did the damage in Game Two, hitting two homers, two singles and drawing a walk in 16 PAs.
Martinez’ success in his starts this season has been somewhat related to the number of left-handed batters he was facing (pitchers excluded, postseason included):
Three: 0 R in 7 IP (one start)
Four: 10 R in 22 2/3 IP (four starts)
Five: 7 R in 14 IP (four starts
Six: 4 R in 14 IP (two starts)
I’m not that excited about the sample sizes here-Martinez had two rain-shortened starts in the “five” bin and both of the two starts in the “six” bin came against whatever passed as the Mets towards the end of the year. Still, Martinez did have most of his success when facing lineups that included a lot of right-handed batters. His dominant start in the NLCS was against a Dodgers team starting just three lefty batters.
I was hoping to find information about teams facing Martinez a second time, but the late start to his season left few data points. The only team he saw twice was the Mets, and the two starts were 20 days apart. My sense is that the deception he relied upon the first time around won’t work as well the second, but I have nothing with which to back that up, and to some extent, Pettitte will be facing the same challenge. It’s probably a wash.
No, the seven lefthanded batters in the Yankees’ lineup, Brett Gardner the worst of the bunch, are the main concern. It’s entirely possible that we’ll see more of J.A. Happ tonight than we will Martinez, given the possibility of short and brutal start. If it becomes a bullpen game-no one here expects Pettitte to work deep into the game-that clearly favors the team with more good arms and one very special one to close out the game.
A shortwave trough (upper level disturbance) is moving into the northeast, causing increasing clouds from late afternoon into evening. That will help keep temperatures from falling quickly after sunset. Problem is they only get into the low 50s for highs today, so game temps should be in the upper 40s. Wind should be very light, from the S (right to left on the field) at only 2-4 mph, probably totally irrelevant to game play. There is an increasing chance of rain with time, but nothing is expected to reach NYC until well after the game is over (2,3,4 in the morning).
If the Phils stay alive for Thursday - that upper level disturbance is going to create a surface low of the coast that should intensify rapidly. Its close enough to the coast that rain is likely all day, but far enough off that it should be more of a steady drizzle/light showers than steady pounding rain. Combine those showers with temperatures in the mid-40s AND a 20-25 mph win from the northwest (out to right field, the famous “wind tunnel”), playing conditions will be totally miserable. I don’t think the rain by itself would be enough to call the game, but I would hope that the combination would. If they do play in that weather, look for New York hospitals to be flooded with upper respiratory cases by Sunday-Monday. Those of you that don’t live along the east coast don’t appreciate the how pernicious these cold damp events feel, the way the humidity helps the cold penetrate into you and take your immune system apart like a sand castle at high tide. I’d rather be out in 20 degree snow than this.
Assuming they do the right thing and delay to Friday - Clear weather, but a little bit colder still. Game time temps in the 40-43 range, and the wind will still be noticeable at 10-15, still blowing out to right, but that’s roughly half of what Thursday night’s wind is liable to be. That will produce wind chills in the 30-35 range, but it will still be better than Thursday by a mile.
This is a notes column that won’t be bulleted because I’m not about to have yet another fight with WordPress over my use of HTML.
When you cover these things, you tend to limit your world a bit. Hotel, box, pressers, field, clubhouse if you have access. You don’t get around enough. This evening, I skipped BP and walked around Citizens Bank Park, where the crowd always seem to arrive early. I wanted to get a feel for the fans, see if there was a resignation in the air or optimism. By the standards set in the last two postseasons, this crowd wasn’t that live last night, getting punched in the mouth early and rebounding during the Phillies rallies, but never quite reaching the heights we’ve seen and heard from them in the past. As I mentioned on Twitter last night, they started leaving, and quickly, after Jorge Posada knocked in the last two runs of the game. I’m not criticizing-I was just surprised.
Walking around this evening, listening in on conversations, talking to a few fans, I don’t get anything but optimism. These people think they’re going to win tonight, that the season won’t end on their watch, and what happens in New York happens. I’ve yet to come across anyone who’s been willing to say that the Phillies will come back and win it all, but for one night, everyone is back on board. This crowd, win or lose, isn’t going to leave early.
Having Cliff Lee on the mound is part of the optimism. The Phillies have won 75% of his starts, including all four in the postseason, where he’s been fantastic. Expecting him to be as good as he was in Game One may be a stretch, though, and especially with winds that blew towards left during the afternoon. We’ve seen a bunch of homers here in the first two games, and the Yankee lineup, even missing Melky Cabrera and Jorge Posada, can go deep. The Phillies need to get their offense going, and that means Jimmy Rollins has got to be on base. He’s posted a .368 OBP in the series, just .306 for the postseason, and even that’s an upgrade on his .294 mark during the season. The Phillies have a top-heavy offense (the performance in this series of ZZ Bottom notwithstanding) that requires the table-setters be on base for the scary monsters that follow. Manuel has gone this far with Rollins atop the lineup, but if Rollins can’t be something more like his career self, that loyalty is just going to hasten the Phillies’ exit.
The bottom of the Yankee lineup is unusually weak, as Brett Gardner replaces the injured Melky Cabrera in center field, which against a lefthander is a loss; Jose Molina once again catches A.J. Burnett and hits just in front of him. It’s a minor blessing for the Yankees that Lee is pitching, in that Molina has at least shown a little power against southpaws in his career. Still, the Yankees also need the top spots in their order to produce if they’re going to end the night damp and inebriated. (Me, I just need a reason.)
Cabrera is off the roster in favor of Ramiro Pena. I fail to see why Pena is the choice rather than Freddy Guzman, who would replace Gardner as the pinch-runner and fill an outfield slot. Pena is just a backup middle infielder with no tactical value at all, and he’d need to see an injury to get on the field at all. Guzman at least has speed; Pena’s best tool is his glove, and you’ll see Joe Girardi be forthright and open in front of a microphone before you’ll see Derek Jeter removed for defense.
I had my first cheesesteak of the trip today, from the ballpark stand, Tony Luke’s (American, without). It was OK…there’s a small chain in Southern California that still has the best cheesesteaks I’ve ever had, by a bunch of Philly expats who import pretty much everything they sell from here. I’ll have to get to Cheesesteak Corner here on a different trip-it seemed a bit heavy for breakfast on this one, especially since I want to try both.
It’s cold. We’ve been pretty spoiled since Game One in New York, but tonight is going to be about 15% below “crisp,” into that area where baseball is less play and more a chore. That probably helps both pitchers, maybe enough to cut down on the problems with the wind.
Joe Sheehan texted me, asking if CC Sabathia’s mechanics were odd. He’d noticed a “loading” maneuver, what Joe described as a small hesitation at the top of his move. That slight pause, more pronounced from the windup, is a very effective move by Sabathia for two reasons. First, it throws off the timing of the hitter, though he’s very consistent with it. It’s much like a Hideo Nomo pause-at-the-top or a Bob Wickman lean.* Second, it’s an extender and accelerator, lengthening his stride and putting more of his considerable mass in motion. (Remember, F=MA.) It’s not unlike the so-called “stepover” move done by Tim Lincecum and others. For Sabathia, his just comes a bit earlier in the motion.
All in all, Sabathia’s motion is not only efficient, but well-adapted, using his long arms, athletic ability, powerful legs, and yes, his weight. It’s all repeatable, smooth, and if you ask any Phillie, Angel, or Twin, pretty darned effective.
* Yes, it would be easier to see this than describe it, but that’s illegal. I know a lot of sites ignore rights issues, but this isn’t one of them. It’s not hard to click over to MLB.com for some highlights that will give you a good look.
Before Game Three, I was thinking about how we really didn’t know what the story was. The World Series was down to a best-of-five, and given the pitching matchups and home-field situation, essentially in the same place where it had stood Wednesday afternoon. From that point, it’s a matter of waiting; there are storylines in advance of a game like that-will Ryan Howard and Alex Rodriguez contribute, can Cole Hamels pitch well, how will Nick Swisher bounce back from a benching?-but the overall story of the series is on hold until we know who wins the next contest.
Tonight, we have the story. The Phillies, down in a series for the first time since 2007, take the field tonight in what is close to a must-win situation. They do so against CC Sabathia, the big lefthander who has pitched superbly in four postseason outings, including seven innings of two-run ball in Game One. The Phillies won that game in part because their ace, Cliff Lee, was even better, throwing eight shutout innings on his way to a complete game. They won’t have that option tonight, as Charlie Manuel has chosen to not match Joe Girardi by bringing back his best starter on three days’ rest.
This decision is defensible, even with the Phillies down 2-1; Lee has no experience going on short rest, and while I think we make too much of the difficulty of doing so, it’s up to the player and his manager to know the pitcher’s capabilities. It helps Manuel that Blanton is an above-average starter, much better than Girardi’s second option of Chad Gaudin. The Phillies are giving up a little by starting Blanton, and their hope is to get more back by having Lee on regular rest. Manuel was asked about it again this afternoon, and appeared tired of the topic.
“You’re asking Cliff Lee to do something he’s never done before,” said Manuel. “But we’re also asking him to do it in a very big, important place, and that’s in the World Series. I didn’t have to think very long about that.”
Joe Blanton is a notch above an innings guy, almost never missing a start and pitching to an RA a notch above league-average. He’s a flyball pitcher, and since coming to Philadelphia in a trade last July has allowed 40 home runs in 266 innings, about twice the rate at which he’d allowed homers (69 in 790 2/3) as an Athletic. A much improved strikeout rate has enable him to keep his run prevention in about the same place. Blanton has never had much of a platoon split-abit more power allowed to righties-so starting him against the lefty-heavy Yankees isn’t a big deal. As an over-the-top guy who works vertically rather than horizontally, his mistakes tend to come high in the zone rather than on one side of the plate or the other.
Four weeks ago, no one would have given a second though to Joe Blanton starting Game Four of the World Series. It’s only an issue now because of how well Cliff Lee has pitched and the Phillies position in this series. As Steven Goldmanso eloquently put it, history dictates that Lee start tonight, but I think the decision is a close one, and I’m willing to give Manuel the benefit of the doubt.
Whoever starts the game for the Phillies is going to need runs, and in fact, it’s the eight guys batting in front of Blanton who should be the focus. With Sabathia pitching, the Phillies can’t expect to get much from Ryan Howard, which means Jimmy Rollins-who after a .297 OBP in the regular season has been in the middle of many of the team’s rallies in October-has to be on base. Jayson Werth, after two homers last night, has to have that kind of night tonight, as he’s the team’s one true lefty-crusher. Chase Utley has to have a good night, to in part make up for Howard’s deficiencies. The Phillies probably have to score four or five runs tonight to win, and they probably can’t do that unless two of those three players get to Sabathia.
There’s no value in trying to predict the outcome of a single baseball game. The story, though, is that for the Phillies to have a reasonably chance of repeating, they have to win tonight with their #3 starter on the mound, against the ace of the best team in baseball, who throws with the arm that shuts down their biggest power bat. The story, is that this series is going to be either a classic or a dud based on what happens in Philadelphia tonight.
Tonight, Andy Pettitte makes the 39th start of his postseason career. In the first 38, he threw 237 1/3 innings with 3.83 ERA and a 154/63 K/BB ratio. Twenty-four starts, including his last six and nine of his last 10 dating back to the 2003 World Series, have been quality starts. That’s one big reason why his teams are 23-15 when he takes the mound in the playoffs.
Any discussion about Andy Pettitte’s Hall of Fame chances has to start-not eventually get to, not politely acknowledge, not use as a supporting piece of evidence-with those 38 starts. Pettitte’s career matches exactly the three-playoff-tier era that has elevated the playoffs to a spot just above the regular season. During Pettitte’s career, we’ve diminished regular-season performance, pennant races, the six-month trial, and we’ve elevated October above all else.
In that crucible, in games deemed so important that we needed to create another round of them, and build entire narratives around the heroes and goars created by them, Pettitte has been great. That 3.82 ERA isn’t anything special by regular-season standards; in a related story, he has no postseason starts against the Royals or Pirates. Pettitte has a season’s worth of innings in the highest-profile games at a time in the game’s history when we care more about the postseason than at any other. Nearly 2/3 of his postseason starts have put his team in position to games, games that can directly lead to a championship.
I’m not a fan of the increased importance we place on the postseason, but I don’t get to make the rules. We play more postseason games and care more about them than at any point prior, and we have to evaluate Hall of Fame candidates in that light. Pettitte is part of a large group of pitchers whose regular-season work will get him considered as a Hall of Famer. He’s the type of pitcher who used to be better handled, before the voting pool decided that 300 wins was just about a bright-line test for induction. When you add a season’s worth of high-leverage innings thrown at an above-average level of quality, though, it becomes nearly impossible to keep him out.
I can’t come up with a way to factor this into JAWS, and maybe I shouldn’t. What I do know is that Andy Pettitte, like John Smoltz, has the postseason track record that isn’t just an adjunct to a reasonable Hall case; it’s one that demands he be a Hall of Famer.
I don’t know if tonight will add to that case. It is, and I may be the first person to use this phrase at a World Series in a while, unseasonably warm, and there’s just a light breeze out to center. It feels like a great night to have a bat in your hands-no, the other kind-and while I’ve pounded the idea that Cole Hamels is going to have a great World Series into the ground, I’d feel better about that meme if the mercury was slightly lower. We’re supposed to get intermitten showers, and at about 7 p.m. as I post this, we’re getting one.
To some extent, tonight’s game just sets the narrative up. We don’t know yet whether we’re going to have a classic World Series, a long one, and tonight won’t give us that information. We’ll be 2-1 in the morning, and then Game Four happens, and we can worry then about one team trying to take a commanding lead and the other looking to make it a best of three. For tonight, we just have one lefthander on his way to Cooperstown off a great postseason resume, and the version of himself about ten years younger.
The Jerry Hairston Experience doesn’t get to start against a lefty, as Nick Swisher is back in the lineup. Down Hideki Matsui, it seems Joe Girardi wanted to get some power back into the lineup. Matsui was never a real option, as he’s rarely played right field and barely played any outfield this season. One reason he had a strong year this season was his being limited to DH, which helped his knees tremendously. It will be interesting to see if Girardi is able to get Matsui into the game in a high-leverage spot; his ability to hit lefties will help if that spot is against Hamels.
In case I didn’t mention this last year…Citizens Bank Park is gorgeous, one of my favorite of the new breed of parks. Everything is, to one extent or another, a Camden Yards knockoff, but they pull it off here very well, and even by new-park standards it has a lot of open space on the inside.
When Joe Buck and Tim McCarver agree that it was a bad play, it was indeed a bad play. (We’re still waiting on Chip Caray’s brilliantly guided analysis.) I’m referring to the apparent decision by Jeter to try to bunt in the seventh inning of last night’s game. Two runners were on base—Melky Cabrera, who had knocked Pedro Martinez out of the game, and the King of Speed, Jorge Posada, who had greeted the new pitcher, Chan Ho Park, with an RBI single—to set the table for Jeter. The Yankees had a 3-1 lead, but it was apparent Joe Girardi would be turning to Mariano Rivera for an extended save unless more runs were scored.
When you have one of your best hitters at the plate, one who has a knack through coming through with runners on base—Jeter has a career .308 average when runners are in scoring position—you’d surely give him a chance to knock in some runs, especially one with decent base running skills, like Melky Cabrera, is on second. That’s not the play that was on, though. The bench had initially told him to bunt, so Jeter squared.
His first attempt went foul. A four-seamer buzzed the outside corner, putting Jeter in the hole 0-2. Now, we all know that when you bunt with two strikes and you foul a pitch off, you’re out, so teams usually take the bunt off and allow their hitter to swing. That’s exactly what Joe Girardi did, but the man who hit .334 in the regular season decided to give himself up once again. On the third pitch of the at-bat, Jeter again squared, this time laying wood on the ball. It went foul right in front of catcher Carlos Ruiz. Instead of having a productive AB, perhaps moving runners over on a deep fly or maybe even getting a hit, Jeter took the bat out of his own hands.
Why even risk bunting in that situation? According to run expectation, with runners on first and second and no out, a team is expected to approximately 1.5 runs in an inning. When there are runners on second and third with one out, the run expectation actually goes down to 1.4. There’s always a chance that Jeter hits into a double play—Jeter ranked 20th in the league in DP% with 17 percent—and he is a ground-ball hitter, but when you’re in the World Series and have one of your best hitters at the plate, it’s better to take the risk.
Some people laud Jeter for being willing to give himself up for the good of the team, but the whole point of a good hitter is that he’s too good to throw away his at-bats on something with as limited potential to do good as a bunt. Worse, the Yankees did not score again, thanks in part to the botched call by first base umpire Brian Gorman on Johnny Damon’s liner to Ryan Howard.
Jeter said after the game that deciding to bunt with two strikes was his call. “That was me,” Jeter said. “I was stupid.”
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You Could Look It Up: He Should Have Picked Lee