I got into a conversation today with some smart baseball people over at ESPN about ‘off days’ for pitchers, mostly in reference to Rich Harden, who was pretty damn off today. However, this is Rich Harden we’re talking about, a mercurial talent who has made only 63 starts. So bad days for a guy like Rich Harden always make one wonder if he’s off . . . or if he’s hurt.
I don’t think this is just bad day. Bad days are really weird things. Knowing a few minor league pitchers, it’s funny how often things are one way in warm ups and another when the game starts. Buddy of mine went six shutout innings a couple weeks ago and said he had nothing in warmups.
That said, having ‘nothing’ usually revolves around two things — command and quality of breaking stuff. Velocity is usually there, even when you are ‘off.” Let’s look at Rich Harden’s velocity in his first start of the year, when he went a pretty dominant six innings against Milwaukee.
AVG Velo: 92.7 MPH
% 89-91: 25%
% 92+: 75%
% less than 91: 14%
% 94 or greater: 32%
And now here’s today.
AVG Velo: 90.9 MPH
% 89-91: 71%
% 92+: 29%
% less than 91: 42%
% 94 or greater: 2%
That’s a pretty stunning difference, and the percentages for the high and low end of things are even more telling then the nearly two mph difference in average velocity.
Looking for more data, one of the editors over at ESPN, Dan Kaufman, wondered how Harden looked in his other poor start, when he went only three innings against Colorado, but had more control issues than anything else, as he struck out eight. Here’s that start:
April 15th:
AVG Velo: 92.5 MPH
% 89-91: 23%
% 92+: 77%
% less than 91: 10%
% 94 or greater: 23%
Really much closer to the April 10th outing as opposed to today. So broken, or just tired? I threw this by Will Carroll, who would know better than us, and he thinks it’s just simple fatigue. Will wrote a compelling opinion as part of the Cubs Team Health Report on having Harden as the team’s fifth starter in order to give him more rest between starts and help save his arm. Either way, the fact that we’re in May, The Cubs are under .500 and we’re already talking about this story one way or another does not bode well for the north side of Chicago.
At the end of the day, what's the practical diference between fatigue and a minor injury? Either way, the remedy is almost always largely comprised of rest. If he's still capable of hitting 92+, this is not like to be a major injury.
As a Reds fan, I have felt from the start that there ware an awful lot of rosey projections around this Cubs team. Harden, Bradley, Z, and Soto are all big question marks imo.
The more fatigued you get, the less likely you are to recover and the more likely you are to get injured in your next start. If it's a minor injury, at least the rest of the muscles in your body aren't affected (except for cascading injury situations, like tendinitis leading to rotator cuff problems as pitchers attempt to compensate, etc.)
On that note, I haven't read of any cases of tendinitis in awhile..
Let's say Pitcher A is a starter. He goes out to the mound ready. If he had one of those "energy meters" like you see on video games, let's say his reads 100. By the end of the sixth, he's down to 25. He could go a bit more, but you'd really rather not. He's pulled for a reliever.
He comes back the next day, hangs out with the Trainers, maybe plays some catch and shags. His energy is back up to 50.
Day 2 comes and he's feeling good. He does some long toss and his meter's back to 75.
Day 3 90.
Day 4 is where it gets interesting. Is he all the way back here, or is he a bit under 100. Let's say he's at 95. (Why Day 4? This is where the recovery plateaus. There's little added benefit to the added rest in most cases.)
Day 5 he's back on the mound at 95. This is the insidious fatigue, what I call "seasonal fatigue."
With subsequent recoveries, instead of getting back to 100, it's less each time. He tires more quickly, his pitches don't have the same life, etc. This is why fatigue is so important to monitor.
Thanks Will, that's kind of how I pictured it. I also pictured it similar to charging a rechargeable battery, where each further recharge diminishes the life and performance of the battery. However, my analogy doesn't describe the effectiveness of extra rest.
"Velocity is usually there, even when you are 'off.'"
Is that true? It sounds right, but how about going through the logs of pitchers we strongly suspect weren't injured and seeing how their fastball distributions vary?
One other question is the gun. sometimes different places have speed guns which register different speeds. Though, if all this is taken from Pitcher F/X data then I assume that's all calibrated the same way.
The first year that the pitch F/x system was used, there were calibration errors, but Dan Fox and Eric Seidman says those issues have been remedied since.
Harden threw 107 pitches in his outing before tonight. I can't really imagine Lou figuring out how to manage Harden correctly. Perhaps his mere 86 pitch outing will help him recover before his next start.
I agree with the previous poster who questioned the wisdom of "Velocity is usually there, even when you are ‘off.'" This seems like a reasonable premise, but it's based completely on speculation and anecdotal evidence. Kevin, you are using statistical analysis to prove a premise that may or may not have any meaning (eg If a pitcher is just "off," his velocity is still there. If a pitcher has a bad day and his velocity isn't there, he is likely injured and not just "off.") It seems reasonable enough, but you really can't just throw it out there.
This season, Harden has three good starts and two bad starts, and the two bad starts didn't come in a row. Aren't we kind of leaping to conclusions here? It may just be that letting him go over 100 pitches in his previous start was a bad idea and with a little more rest and more careful management he'll be just fine.
Really interesting article Kevin. I have always heard comments about when a pitcher has "it" or doesn't. I didn't know if it was always necessarily just speed or if it was the break of their pitches. I am trying to learn more about the pitch f/x tool. is there a website that has this data on it along with the vertical and horizontal movement? thanks.
I'm sure I'm missing something here, but couldn't the lower velocity numbers simply be a result of Harden relying more on his slider and changeup than his fastball? Both of those pitches clock in at under 90 MPH, and I thought I'd seen games where he was pitching fine, but was very reliant on his changeup.
"""Either way, the fact that we’re in May, The Cubs are under .500 and we’re already talking about this story one way or another does not bode well for the north side of Chicago."""
And three days later, they are no longer under .500, but have added zambrano to the injury queue.
I think the fact that we are in early may might just be a little too soon to press the panic button, even for us cub fans.
It's not like anyone expected harden to make 30 starts and pitch 200 innings.
I was perusing Harden's data over at fangraphs and was looking for a forum to post something, so here goes.
Rich Harden has undergone a pretty amazing transformation as a pitcher.
From 2004-05 his average fastball was over 94 mph, he threw sliders 15% of the time, and changeups 7.5%. In 2008-09 his average fastball is 91.7 mph, he basically doesn't throw a slider (2.9% in 2008, 0% in 2009), and he throws changeups 30% of the time.
Rich Harden came up dominating with plus fastball velocity and a vicious slider. Now he dominates with above-average fastball velocity and a changeup, but no slider.
Its kind of amazing he has changed so much as a pitcher, yet still has the ability to dominate. It really is too bad he couldn't stay healthy throwing all 3 pitches with his velocity, because he probably would have consistently been one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Team Health Reports: Chicago Cubs
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The box score at ESPN says he was removed from the game with a sprained ankle. Don't know if he started the game with it.
http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=290501116
Actually that was Florida pitcher Hayden Penn.
Oops you're right, my mistake. That's what I get for cooking and browsing at the same time.