When the Red Sox acquired Jeremy Hermida from the Marlins this afternoon, in exchange for young lefthanders Jose Alvarez and Hunter Jones, they brought on board a 25-year-old outfielder whose promise has thus far outshown his production. After a strong 2007 campaign where he hit .296/.369/.501 with 18 home runs, Hermidia has seen his numbers decline over the past two seasons, most notably his SLG, which bottomed out this year at .392. Theo Epstein talked about the hopes he has for his new acquisition in a conference call earlier this evening.
Epstein on the trade: “This is not a blockbuster. It’s a value trade and a chance to get a guy with unfulfilled potential at a reasonable cost. I don’t think we can draw grand conclusions about our offseason, or the offseason in Major League Baseball, with this one transaction. It’s just a small move, and I’m sure that there will be increased activity with a lot of clubs once we get to the general managers’ meetings.”
On Hermida’s health issues: “That’s one of the things that has held him back and has prevented him from reaching his potential. But most of the injuries that he has had have been soft-tissue types of injuries, nothing that should be chronic — nothing structural that should impair him going forward. Often times, young players, when they get hurt early in their careers, it really hampers them. As they move closer to their prime, and mature a little bit, some figure out how to stay on the field and that helps them to reach their potential. Others don’t. We’ll see what happens with Jeremy.”
On Hermida’s declining production: “I just think he hasn’t really put everything together offensively yet. If you look back at 2007, as a 23-year-old, he had a really solid season and was starting to fulfill the promise he had showed in the minor leagues. He’s got a lot of offensive tools, and he’s got a sound approach and a good swing, and he’s got some power. I think that the last two years there were high expectations, and it didn’t come together for him. He was nagged by some small injuries, and his performance certainly hasn’t been as good the last few years as it was in 2007. I can tell you that that’s the reason we were able to acquire him today. Had he maintained that performance, or had linear progression from 2007 until today, there‘s no way we would have been trading for him today, let alone in this kind of a deal. So, he‘s a guy who needs to figure it out, and needs to get straightened out, to reach his potential, and I think that there‘s a chance that he will. It may not happen, or it may not happen with us, but we‘ve had really good scouting reports on him, and we like the way that he controls the strike zone, and we certainly liked him a lot as an amateur and throughout his minor league career. Taking those factors, we thought it was certainly a reasonable deal.”
But he can be a similar player to Drew and not be as good. OPS doesn't do an overall comparison to approach and hitting style justice.
I agree with you that JD Drew is a far superior player. He hits for much more power and gets on-base more. Looking at strictly results - it is the wrong comparison.
But if the poster was acknowledging a similar approach, I don't think it is that bad of a comparison.
They both have low walk rates, similar GB/FB ratios, comparable on the base paths. I'd have to dig a bit more to say anything conclusively - but two players can have very similar approaches and very different results.
That was along the lines of what I meant. Drew and Hermedia have similar approaches and traits. Both are left handed hitters who can man right field, they have their injury dings, hit for some power and some average without being an elite power or contact hitter. In other words, I think Hermedia is relatively undeveloped and could be an adequate replacement in a similar kind of role to J.D. Drew.
Regarding walk rate, Hermedia's isn't all that shabby, but Drew's is vastly superior.
And yes, Drew's played in the AL some. On the flipside, Hermedia might thrive outside of Florida's unfriendly hitting confines.
Do I think Hermedia is as good as Drew? No. But he does a pretty good impression for a pretty good price.
As a Red Sox fan, I have opposite feelings but agree with your assessment of the two trades. I'd say the Getz/Fields package is a bit more valuable than the two pitching prospects the Sox gave up AND I'd rather have Hermida than Teahen. At least Hermida has some upside.
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I don't know how Red Sox fans can live with themselves given blatant attempts like this one to buy a championship. After all, if Hermida's salary wasn't due to escalate, surely the poor Marlins would keep him and see if he can fulfill that upside potential.
The way Boston is taking advantage of the weaker small-market teams makes me sick.
Sincerely, Yankees Fan who gets a kick out of "Yanks bought the championship"-style rants
It is interesting that a team like the Red Sox got him. You would think that a team like the Royals or the Astros would be better off getting him and giving him 500 at bats (if healthy). When you are expecting to win, it is hard to give up so many at bats on a lottery ticket (which is why, I assume, the Marlins got rid of him- OK, so one of the reasons).
I agree with "It is interesting that a team like the Red Sox got him." I'd have to believe that there are a number of teams that Hermida could potentially add value to, and that could have both afforded him and offered a better package in order to acquire him. It would be interesting to know how many other teams the Marlins talked to about Hermida.
My first thought was "he's similar to JD Drew" just like the first poster. I do think when you have a chance to get a young kid with his skill set you take it. Hermida could be VERY good and if he's not the price was minimal so it doesn't hurt. I predict he'll blossom in Boston.
I am excited about this- I kind of feel like this could be a Carlos Pena situation where no one can figure out why this guy isn't a stud and then he becomes one. What do you think?
Hermida actually just had the best bb/k of his career I think the under lying skill set make this a great gamble, enhanced by what was given up to acquire him.
I recall seeing some reports that Hermida has had an attitude problem; he's just not all that interested in baseball. He's the type of player a small market team could gamble on, but he won't get an opportunity in Boston unless he stays out of the doghouse and gets off to a hot start. Boston is past the point where it should be looking for this type of bargain. His downside is significant.
This is a team that employed a LaRoche, a Kotchman, a Kielty, a Millar, a Merloni etc. They'll find a way to work him in, especially with an aging Ortiz.
I think the important thing to remember is what the Sox gave up for Hermida - essentially nothing. I think Christina called them "organizational cannon fodder" or something along those lines. The Sox can afford to take on his salary, so worst case he's a decent 4th OF and best case he turns into a solid ballplayer that the Sox acquired for spare parts. Good deal for Theo.
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Theo just got a new J.D. Drew with a bit less talent and not quite as severe an injury history.
Really?
JD Drew: Career Adjusted OPS+: 129
Hermida: Career Adjusted OPS+: 102
Drew has played much more of his career in the real league, and has been 25 percent better while doing it. No comparison.
But he can be a similar player to Drew and not be as good. OPS doesn't do an overall comparison to approach and hitting style justice.
I agree with you that JD Drew is a far superior player. He hits for much more power and gets on-base more. Looking at strictly results - it is the wrong comparison.
But if the poster was acknowledging a similar approach, I don't think it is that bad of a comparison.
They both have low walk rates, similar GB/FB ratios, comparable on the base paths. I'd have to dig a bit more to say anything conclusively - but two players can have very similar approaches and very different results.
Drew has a low walk rate?
That was along the lines of what I meant. Drew and Hermedia have similar approaches and traits. Both are left handed hitters who can man right field, they have their injury dings, hit for some power and some average without being an elite power or contact hitter. In other words, I think Hermedia is relatively undeveloped and could be an adequate replacement in a similar kind of role to J.D. Drew.
Regarding walk rate, Hermedia's isn't all that shabby, but Drew's is vastly superior.
And yes, Drew's played in the AL some. On the flipside, Hermedia might thrive outside of Florida's unfriendly hitting confines.
Do I think Hermedia is as good as Drew? No. But he does a pretty good impression for a pretty good price.
Of course, it probably doesn't help that when I think of Hermida, I end up misspelling his name so it rhymes with hernia.