CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Baseball ProGUESTus: T... (10/02)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Bizball: Do the Dodger... (10/02)

October 2, 2012

Fall Instructional League Report

Rays/Twins

by Chris Mellen

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Fall Instructional League, or “Instructs,” is great for several things: doing follow-up scouting from the season, getting a first look at recently signed players, or getting a first glimpse at players coming over to the United States for the first time. The teams in Instructs are typically composed of  the younger prospects from the lower levels and rehabbing players from the upper minors. Teams go through workouts in the morning, then play games in the afternoon against the other teams in the area. So between the morning and the afternoon, you have plenty of chances to lay the eyes on the developing prospects.

Fort Myers has served as my home base for Instructs since I’ve been coming down, and it’s always a productive trip. This year, the Twins, Red Sox, Orioles, and Rays have been playing a rotation of games against each other; for the last six years, I was covering the Red Sox and no one else, so this year sees me expanding my scouting base considerably. It’s been challenging given the large volume of players to see and heightened sense of attention needed, but it’s been fun getting outside of my comfort zone. So these reports will be of selected players from each organization who have stood out for one reason or another. Today we’ll start with the Rays and Twins, with the Red Sox and Orioles to follow later.

Tampa Bay Rays

RHP Parker Markel: I saw Markel throw with Hudson Valley in 2011 and he stood out as having some potential.  He’s gone through some mechanical tweaks since then, as he’s now throwing from a mid-to-low three-quarter arm slot; he has a much easier time keeping his arm there than the previous higher three-quarter slot. The stuff’s been enhanced, especially the ease with which he throws the fastball and movement created.  Markel showed a heavy 93-96 mph heater in his outing, touching 95 and 96 with frequency. He breezed through the Red Sox lineup he faced by spotting it on both sides of the plate and pounding the lower tier of the zone.  His fastball’s a tough ball to elevate due to its downward movement. Markel also showed a tight 83-85 mph slider with late bite and an 81-83 mph fading changeup. The slider has the type of depth to miss advanced bats. I’d like to see more of the changeup in future scouting opportunities, but it looked like an offering that can eventually develop into one that produces weak contact by keeping batters out front. With his stuff profile, I feel Markel can project as a late-inning leverage reliever. With further tightening of the slider and increased power, he could potentially push as an above-average one.

OF Bralin Jackson: As Jackson walked up to the plate, the first thing that jumped out was the body. He is filled out, chiseled, and has plenty of muscle packed onto his frame. Both the upper body and lower half are powerful. He whips the head of the bat through the hitting zone, creating easy bat speed via his strong hands, making a distinct sound when he makes contact. The overall game is very raw presently, however, and Jackson’s progression is likely going to take time. He doesn’t see secondary offerings well and over-compensates when he’s behind in the count, which leaves him susceptible to fastballs with two strikes. Jackson will run into some heaters early in his career, but the progress building an approach and training his eye to differentiate what is coming out of opposing pitcher’s hands are key to progressing out of the low minors.  Defensively, he has the speed and agility to play center field, but he’s weak with his reads off the bat, freezing on contact; he’s especially rough with balls hit right at him. If he’s going to stick in center, there's a lot of work to do, as while the package of tools does stand out, the amount of development he needs stands out equally.          

3B Tyler Goeddel: The body makes Goeddel an intriguing player, but he is relatively rough on both sides of the ball, so I came away from this view mixed on him going forward. At 19 years old, Goeddel’s very lean, with a lot of room to pack muscle onto his 6-foot-4 inch frame. He needs strength to enhance his swing, as the bat presently drags through the zone. Physical development alone won’t make him a better hitter though, as there isn’t much upward plane or leverage to the point of contact. He pulled his hands in against an inside fastball well, but there was little backspin created despite squaring it up. So the swing needs work to produce both lift and backspin to drive pitches consistently. Defensively, Goeddel wasn’t overly fluid at the hot corner, and I also didn’t see the reactions and foot speed that the ones who typically stick at the position display. Combined with projected physical development, a move out of the infield to a corner outfield spot could be in his future, which is going to put more of an emphasis on the bat.    

LHP Blake Snell: Two things jumped out at me when scouting Snell: the fastball movement and ease in creating velocity. His heater operated at 90-93 mph, with the type of run and life to attack right-handed hitters on the inside third. A lot of young lefties fall into ruts of working away, away, away from righties, but Snell showed the confidence to bust them in and, most importantly, the ability to do so. I liked it. His command of the fastball is presently fringy and the progress he makes repeating his delivery more consistently will be key. The breaking ball worked 79-83 mph, with shallow break, and he tended to roll it. Consequently, it needs tightening to become a viable offering to miss quality bats. Snell dropped his wrist under the ball when delivering it, but that’s correctable with repetition. I see him as a level-to-level guy, who will need development time to iron out the rough edges. There’s projection with the body, though, with any added strength potentially helping him squeeze out a tick or two more velocity. It’s a nice package for a development staff to work with and could end up churning out a back-end starter at the major league level.

Minnesota Twins

OF Byron Buxton:  Conversations about Buxton all tend to feature a familiar phrase: “super toolsy.”  He oozes talent. I got my first look at Buxton during batting practice, which consisted of a lot of line drives from gap to gap. The hands are quick, paired with strong forearms that generate plenty of bat speed and allow him to control the head of the bat through the hitting zone. The swing is a bit rough during game action though, mainly opening early with his hips that cause his hands to move too far forward during his stride. Still, there is drive behind the ball and backspin created when squared up.  I saw a player just beginning to scratch the surface offensively, with the hit tool to grow into a plus hitter for average and power that can approach 20 home runs. However, the offensive development is going to take some time due to a raw approach and below-average present pitch recognition. He needs time to marinate in the professional ranks. The speed and defense are also impressive:  Buxton got timed at 4.09 seconds down the line on a bunt attempt where he was a little slow getting started. He glides after flyballs out in center field, reading them well off the bat. There’s a lot of development to go, but the package is there to become an above-average major leaguer.

3B Miguel Sano: It is hard to miss Sano on the field because he is a physical monster. At 19, he looked a bit firmer as I remembered him being softer in the past. On the field, he showed a plus arm at the hot corner, but I don’t see either the foot speed or hands for him to end up sticking there. The reads off the bat aren’t great either, frankly, and he’ll likely move over to first base or to the outfield given the arm.  He puts on a power display in batting practice, though, with raw power that grades at the top of the charts. Sano stays back on fastballs, but gets fooled easily by sharp breaking balls.  The swing does get long, too.  He yanks over the top of breaking stuff and I also see higher velocity fastballs on the inner third giving him trouble in higher levels without adjustments. Sano likes to get the arms extended, handling offerings middle-to-away well.  He may end up a hitter who can be busted inside consistently, but will make pitchers pay for mistakes. If the approach develops with continued experience and instruction, Sano slots as a five-hole hitter for me.  30-plus home runs are not out of the question, but that will probably come with mediocre batting averages and a lot of strikeouts.

RHP Jose Berrios: I was surprised when I looked at the roster and saw that Berrios was only 18 years old, because he repeats his delivery well for a pitcher his age and was more polished than the young arms I typically see at this point in their development.  Throwing from a three-quarter arm slot, Berrios keeps on top of his downward-moving fastball well.  He touched up to 94 mph, averaging 92 mph in the outing. The command of the pitch was about fringe-average, as he leaves it in the middle of the plate too much, but he showed the ability to move it around the strike zone and hit some corners after a slow start. There isn’t much projection with his body, though, and I just don’t see the stuff likely to go through a big transformation. Berrios’ development will be about fine tuning and becoming more consistent. Both the curveball and changeup flashed plus potential, but he was especially inconsistent staying on top of the curve. It worked 79-82 mph, at times deep and also at times loopy as it rolled to the plate. The tighter version can definitely miss bats. Overall, Berrios is an interesting arm. The level of polish leads me to believe that he can track with lesser resistance through the low minors, performing well in the process. I’m in the “wait and see” category with him though because the stuff could hit a wall in the upper minors where the more advanced hitters will press him to live on the corners in the lower-tier of the strike zone consistently.                                       

RHP J.T. Chargois: The righty came out of the gate lighting up my radar gun with a lot of “94s” and a high of 97 mph. The fastball simply explodes out of his hand, with downward movement and run. Chargois’ command is about average, but he has the ability to beat hitters, especially elevated. The delivery is extremely jerky and full of effort.  He gets just about every ounce of energy behind each pitch, which at times amounts to over-throwing. It is hard to see Chargois being able to maintain his stamina due to all of the effort he expends, and so multiple innings are going to take their toll on him. Ultimately I see him as a reliever, with the potential to develop into a late-inning one. He was fastball-dominant in the outing, only throwing an 81-83 mph changeup twice, so I didn’t get a good look at what he has for secondary stuff.  There was good separation with the change from his heater and the arm speed was similar to create some deception. The ceiling looked like a closer, but I think a seventh- or eighth-inning reliever is more likely and that there is volatility in his projection due to him presently still being on the rough side.

Chris Mellen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Chris's other articles. You can contact Chris by clicking here

Related Content:  Prospects,  Scouting,  Minor League Baseball

20 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Mtn Jam

This is great. If at all possible, when amateur seasons get going, is there any way we can convince you guys to report on some of the top high school/college talents?

Oct 02, 2012 05:51 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

That will be happening. You might see something on HS hitters on the site as soon as this week.

Oct 02, 2012 06:35 AM
 
Behemoth

This is a really good article. I hope it's the sort of thing that we are going to get more of under the new prospect approach.

I was wondering if Markel has a good fastball/slider, and the possibility of developing a decent changeup, why you see him as a reliever? Would the three decent pitches not give him a chance as a starter?

Also, Sano sounds as though he might end up somewhat similar to Pedro Alvarez - load of Ks, load of home runs, not great average, and mediocre defence. Is that the sort of outcome that you think is most likely?

Oct 02, 2012 06:13 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Chris Mellen
BP staff

With Parker Markel, I got the feel that the slider is the lone pitch with will end up missing quality bats consistently and it has to play up a little more to do so. At 22 years old there's potential growth with the changeup, but it wasn't real deep and is likely an offering he sprinkles in as the competition rises, rather than leans on. The package looked best suited for shorter outings, where he won't be pressed to churn multiple times through a lineup.

I think that kind of offensive profile could be a likely outcome for Miguel Sano. The arms are long and the swing has length. It is harder for him to keep the hands inside of the ball. He's the type of hitter than gets extended early, with balls out and over the plate in his wheelhouse. Sano can improve driving his hands down and through the ball, but will have to work to maintain his swing, likely making him a streaky hitter.

For the third question, yes. It is a mixed level environment so that has to be kept in mind when evaluating things, but I've seen progress shown in Instructs from players after seeing them during the season. Red Sox prospect Bryce Brentz is one who comes to mind that looked a lot better in Instructs after initially struggling during his first pro summer and it carried into the next year.

Oct 02, 2012 07:04 AM
 
Behemoth

Thanks. I appreciate the thoughtful response.

Oct 02, 2012 16:17 PM
rating: 0
 
Behemoth

Another question, actually. Do you get a feel for who is actually making progress in instructs, if you see the same guys quite often?

Oct 02, 2012 06:14 AM
rating: 0
 
Craig Goldstein

This isn't much of a prospect question, but how exactly does one pronounce Chargois?

Oct 02, 2012 07:28 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

Shar-gwah

Oct 02, 2012 08:51 AM
 
philly

Chris

I have a quick question on a couple of unmentioned rehabbers. More of a where are they?

Kyle Gibson pitched a month or so of the minor league season as part of his TJS rehab and is scheduled to pitch some more in the AFL. Is it correct to assume he was in Twins camp continuing to keep his arm stretched out in prep for the AFL?

And the Rays Alex Colome had to be shut down in late August, I believe with a lat injury. Did you happen to catch if he was a rostered player with the Rays rehabbing?

Thanks.

Oct 02, 2012 08:17 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Chris Mellen
BP staff

Kyle Gibson was at Instructs and rostered for Minnesota. I saw him during some drills. Didn't catch him throw and not sure if he was in the pitching rotation or just working out.

Alex Colome was not on the Rays roster.

Oct 02, 2012 08:55 AM
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

Great notes, Chris. I saw a lot of Jackson as a prep player and really liked him as a good value pick in the 5th Round. Could be an interesting talent if development clicks (and Tampa is generally good at finding the right buttons to push).

Oct 02, 2012 08:54 AM
 
omb8236

I am enjoying some of the detail associated with the move to larger prospect staff. However, I feel like these synopses would really benefit from some kind of header or main takeaway. It would give the reader something to frame the paragraph and move it beyond a collection of impressions.

Anyhow, I'll read them anyway because the descriptions are rich and obviously informed. Just some food for thought.

Oct 02, 2012 10:56 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Did his opening paragraph(s) not accomplish the necessary framing? I thought it set the stage for the scouting impressions quite well. What exactly are you looking for? I'm asking honestly, because if we can improve the product, I want to know about it.

Oct 02, 2012 12:57 PM
 
omb8236

Jason, that's a totally fair response. I guess my more accurate request would have been that I feel like I am floundering trying to read this information and not have it become disposable. It's too good for that.

There are a massive number of prospects that you all cover and for someone like me that may only be familiar with a top 50 overall prospects list and a Red Sox top 20 list, I guess I am having trouble placing Parker Markel in any context. For me it would be a benefit to have his draft year, BP ranking if applicable, and maybe an up or down arrow about the prospect's progress. I am familiar with someone like Sano or Buxton, but for a Markel I am clicking on the hard link to his player card and losing the flow that comes reading the piece without interruption.

Apologies if I am not making sense here or being clear enough. I've really enjoyed your team's work and my comments are meant in a positive spirit.

Oct 02, 2012 14:10 PM
rating: 2
 
Brock Dahlke

I agree with omb, i'm not really a huge follower of prospects and really only know the very very top ones, so some of these rundowns, though well written, don't do much for me.
So some other details about the player besides name and team would be great.

Oct 02, 2012 14:50 PM
rating: 0
 
Behemoth

It sounds like once the new team have done a set of rankings, it might help to post the player's ranking, and maybe their age. One other thing that would help me is to always post the level of a club - i.e. Short Season Hudson Valley rather than just Hudson Valley.

Oct 02, 2012 16:17 PM
rating: 1
 
R.A.Wagman

Maybe including the player's pedigree would be instructive - draft round, overslot signing if applicable, something about how he came to the org in question. Otherwise, great stuff.

Oct 03, 2012 04:59 AM
rating: 0
 
Scott44

Chris - That description of Buxton reminds me strikingly of the conversations about Hicks. Who do you think ends up the better MLB'er? Thanks

Oct 02, 2012 11:00 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Chris Mellen
BP staff

That's a tough question. I saw Aaron Hicks a few times in Double-A this year, but didn't really study him closely enough. The look at Byron Buxton is more about building the initial base. Let's table that one for a bit and come back to it.

Oct 02, 2012 20:12 PM
 
jtpapka

I really liked the style of your writing, very easy to follow, clear, crisp, nice work, I'm looking forward to your next submission.

Oct 02, 2012 11:32 AM
rating: 3
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Baseball ProGUESTus: T... (10/02)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Bizball: Do the Dodger... (10/02)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article League Preview Series
Every Team's Moneyball: Minnesota Twins: Reb...
Premium Article Skewed Left: History Repeats Itself
Premium Article League Preview Series
Premium Article Pitching Backward: Why Relievers Get A Free ...
Premium Article Spring Training Notebook: Cactus League
Prospectus Feature: How the Astros do Spring...

MORE FROM OCTOBER 2, 2012
Premium Article Bizball: Do the Dodgers Really Have a “Sec...
Baseball ProGUESTus: The Ever-Changing Mecha...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Nishioka Unsinks His C...
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Starting Pitching Review
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Tuesday, October 2
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, October 2
What You Need to Know: Tuesday, October 2

MORE BY CHRIS MELLEN
2013-03-28 - Premium Article Notes from the Field: Four Prospects with Wo...
2012-11-06 - BP Unfiltered: Prospect Ranking Regrets and ...
2012-10-04 - Premium Article Fall Instructional League Report
2012-10-02 - Premium Article Fall Instructional League Report
2012-09-21 - BP Unfiltered: The Call-Up: Jake Odorizzi
2012-09-10 - Monday Morning Ten Pack: Most Memorable Pros...
More...


INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2012-10-04 - Premium Article Fall Instructional League Report