CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Internet Baseball Awar... (11/14)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (11/14)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (11/16)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (11/15)

November 14, 2012

Transaction Analysis

The Toronto Blue Jays Acquire Most of the Remaining Miami Marlins

by R.J. Anderson, Derek Carty, Jason Parks and Mark Anderson

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

We'll be updating this article with additional reactions and analysis as the situation develops.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Reportedly will acquire RHP Josh Johnson, SS-S Jose Reyes, LHP Mark Buehrle, C-R John Buck, UTL-S Emilio Bonifacio and $4 million from the Marlins for SS-R Yunel Escobar, SS-R Adeiny Hechavarria, RHP Henderson Alvarez, C-R Jeff Mathis, LHP Justin Nicolino, and OF-R Jake Marisnick. [11/13]

In a single swoop, Alex Anthopoulos netted two new members of the rotation, a leadoff-hitting shortstop, a utility player, and another catcher without sparing his top hitting or pitching prospect. Toronto now has the look of a serious contender.

Johnson, the headliner of the trade, ends Toronto’s post-Halladay quest to find an ace-caliber starter. He pitches off a low-to-mid-90s fastball and uses a hard slider to end at-bats. Durability is a concern; Johnson has just one 200-plus-inning season under his belt. The 28-year-old Minnesotan also suffered through his worst big-league season last year. His strikeout rate declined and his walk rate increased—albeit in large part due to a career-high seven intentional walks. Johnson is a free agent at season’s end; given the other goodies involved in the package, it’s impossible to discern whether the Jays intend to re-sign him.

Toronto reportedly considered pursuing Reyes last offseason before ultimately ducking out of the bidding. The shortstop is heading north one season into a six-year deal worth $106 million. As exciting of a player as there is in the majors, Reyes uses impressive speed and bat-to-ball skills to provide offensive value. He’s made to hit near the top of the order and should become Toronto’s everyday leadoff hitter. Reyes has five years and $96 million remaining on his contract. A club option for the 2018 season, worth $22 million, could push the total amount remaining to $114 million if exercised.

Buehrle is the archetypal soft-tossing southpaw who survives with guts and guile. He gets by with mediocre strikeout rates by avoiding free passes and displaying a knack for generating double-play balls. The four-time Gold Glove winner has seen his ERA continuously outperform his peripherals as a result. How Buehrle’s approach will translate to the American League East is a question worth asking. Toronto will have the next three years (at the cost of $48 million) to learn the answer.

After a strong 2011 campaign, Bonifacio appeared ready to take a step forward. Instead he went backward and missed most of the season due to injury. When Bonifacio did play, he performed like his old self. His defensive flexibility is useful, as he can play all over—including second base and center field, where he spent his time last season. At the plate, Bonifacio walks a fair bit, but he also has more swing-and-miss in his game than you’d anticipate from a player his size with his power production. He’s an excellent basestealer, and he should provide a spark off the bench if used well.

Buck is included to serve as salary ballast. The Jays are sending Mathis to the Marlins and have Travis d’Arnaud hanging around the minors. In a sense, Buck is a lot like J.P. Arencibia. He needs to slug to provide positive value. Otherwise, he’s a mundane backstop.—R.J. Anderson

MIAMI MARLINS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Reportedly will acquire SS-R Yunel Escobar, SS-R Adeiny Hechavarria, RHP Henderson Alvarez, C-R Jeff Mathis, LHP Justin Nicolino, and OF-R Jake Marisnick from the Blue Jays for RHP Josh Johnson, SS-S Jose Reyes, LHP Mark Buehrle, C-R John Buck, UTL-S Emilio Bonifacio, and $4 million. [11/13]

Well, you’ll never be able to say that Jeffrey Loria and the Miami Marlins didn’t give it the old college try, for at least half a season. Loria and his entourage were the talk of the town (or the Hilton Anatole Hotel) at last year’s Winter Meetings when they threw their money around like an exquisitely mustachioed, monocle-clad oil tycoon, signing Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell while also trying to lure Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson, and Prince Fielder.

They say money doesn’t buy championships, but it certainly helps, and Miami was willing to give it a shot, opening 2012 with a payroll 76 percent greater than the one with which they opened 2011. However, the team wasn’t able to bring in the biggest gun (Pujols) and didn’t spend its money efficiently ($27 million for a closer on the decline?). Throw in the lack of sufficient supporting pieces to go around their fresh talent and incumbent stars Giancarlo Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, and Johnson, and Miami wound up dropping 93 games and engaging in some very early spring cleaning. Following this deal and their trade with Arizona last month, none of their big signings from last offseason remains. They’ve now cleared $48 million from the 2013 books (plus let close to $10 million more expire) and $175 million total.

Aside from the $11.5 million they owe Ricky Nolasco this year (the Marlins must have totally spaced and forgotten to stick Toronto with him, too) and the $5 million Escobar will cost them, the team’s most expensive non-arbitration player is Greg Dobbs at $1.5 million. With the experiment a failure, at least Miami had the nerve (if you want to call it that) to admit they were wrong, tear it down, and start over (and they even got some decent prospects out of it). Heck, that might have even been the plan all along given the back-loading on their now infamous Winter Meetings deals. —Derek Carty

Escobar is the most experienced big-league player in the Marlins’ return, but he comes with plenty of warts. Concerns about his maturity have prevailed since his days with the Braves, and climaxed with last season’s eye black message controversy. Teams put up with the headaches because Escobar is a solid player. He’s shown ability to hit for solid averages while posting decent-to-good on-base percentages. Defensively, Escobar has overcome questions revolving around his speed and range. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Marlins move Escobar at some point before the end of next season given his track record and team-friendly contract (he has one year, $5 million remaining guaranteed with two club options worth $10 million total). Until then, he figures to man a middle infield spot.

Miami acquired Gorkys Hernandez at the trade deadline and may have acquired his infield doppelganger in Hechavarria. The Cuban product is a plus-plus defender with the arm and actions to stick at shortstop. If Hechavarria’s bat were good enough to merit batting eighth or ninth in the lineup, he would be a surefire starter. As is, his offensive production is so poor that starting him is hard to fathom despite the stellar defense. If the Marlins start him in the big leagues next season, don’t be surprised if he posts the worst walk-to-strikeout ratio on the team, and maybe in the National League.

Alvarez is the baby of the big-league bunch at 22 1/2 years old. An inability to miss bats despite a mid-90s fastball has plagued him over his 41 big-league starts, and the results rarely matched the stuff in the minors. To Alvarez’s credit, he has generated a good groundball rate. Escaping the AL East should help his numbers. The Marlins probably have a tweak or two in mind as well. If their tinkering works, Alvarez may develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter, but even back-of-the-rotation status would be an improvement.—R.J. Anderson

Justin Nicolino, the second-round pick in the 2010 draft, brings a combination of projection and polish from the left side. At present, the soon-to-be 21-year-old southpaw will work his fastball in the upper-80s to low-90s, showing good arm-side movement on the pitch. His best offering is a beautiful changeup that wears the fastball disguise until it’s too late for hitters to adjust, resulting in weak contact and missed bats to both lefties and righties. His curveball is his third offering, but has good shape and depth and projects to be another above-average pitch at maturity. The entire arsenal plays up because of his pitchability and overall feel for sequence and game situation, so even if the fastball doesn’t see a velocity spike during the developmental process, Nicolino can still profile as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. If the arsenal ticks up without sacrificing his feel for command, the sky is the limit. After a very strong Low-A campaign in 2012, Nicolino has the type of poise and polish to reach the Double-A level at some point in the 2013 season.

It wasn’t that long ago that the Jays gave slick-fielding Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria a $4M signing bonus and guaranteed $10M in a four-year major-league contract, but the bat didn’t develop as planned and Hechavarria spent the better part of his three seasons in the minors. His worth is tied to his flash at a premium position, and that flash is substantial. Hechavarria has very slick actions at the position, with some scouts putting a 7 on his glove to match the 7 already on his arm and his legs. The bat would be the topping on his defensive dessert, but it’s been slow to find its form, raking in the offense-friendly environment of the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate but falling short in his 41-game major-league sample. The hands work well, but the pitch recognition skills and the approach put him in a hole, and without much juice, the stick is pretty empty. With some contact ability and speed, he might be able to produce enough to keep his glove on the field. But the approach will need refinement if he is to have a chance as a major-league regular. He has his backers who insist the bat has enough room to develop into something that plays. Others aren’t so optimistic.—Jason Parks

Jake Marisnick has an up-the-middle profile with potential plus defense in center field. He’s a lean athlete who glides to the ball with long, majestic strides. He can cover a ton of ground to both sides and has the plus arm strength necessary to make throws from the deepest parts of the park. For all his defensive abilities, Marisnick remains raw at the plate. He lacks pitch recognition skills, will swing wildly at breaking balls out of the strike zone, and is consistently out front on even mediocre change-ups.

Marisnick hits better with two strikes, choking up on the bat, employing a shorter stroke, and using the whole field. He has the leveraged swing and natural strength to earn plus grades for his raw power, but that power has yet to manifest in games. Optimistic views envision a five-tool center fielder who contributes at an above-average level in all phases of the game. The pessimist’s view can see the hitting ability unraveling the whole package, leaving him short of such a lofty projection. Regardless of the frame of reference, he will need all of 2013 in the minor leagues to refine his offensive game, but he could make an impact in the big leagues in 2014.—Mark Anderson


R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see R.J.'s other articles. You can contact R.J. by clicking here
Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here
Mark Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Mark's other articles. You can contact Mark by clicking here

70 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

CRP13

Jeffrey Loria has an island for sale in New York for the low price of $24 dollars.

Nov 13, 2012 17:46 PM
rating: 1
 
SC

Unfortunately, it's not the one you are thinking of, and power is expected to be restored there in approximately 2017.

Nov 14, 2012 08:32 AM
rating: 9
 
MattWinks

The scary thing is that this deal doesn't actually seem that unbalanced when you assess how much money and risk the Blue Jays took on...but an entire team was just traded. Also how can any free agent sign in Miami without a no-trade clause while this ownership group is in place?

Nov 13, 2012 17:55 PM
rating: 6
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

The short answer is "money." A player who wants to maximize money will sign in Miami without an NTC if they offer the most.

Nov 13, 2012 18:51 PM
 
Richard Bergstrom

Though the Jays take on some risk, most of the players the Jays acquired (Buehrle, Reyes, Johnson, maybe even Bonaficio) would've netted at least a prospect in exchange. Yet the Marlins only got two prospects.

Nov 13, 2012 20:16 PM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

To apply a hometown perspective, which trade had a higher cost/benefit?

Johnson, Reyes, Buehrle, Buck, and Bonifacio for Escobar and the prospects mentioned above?

or

Hunter Pence for Singleton, Cosart, Santana, and Zeid?


Anybody else here feel like the Marlins should have gotten more in return? Early rumors had them getting Arencibia, but they wind up with...Jeff Mathis. Honestly...

Nov 14, 2012 05:52 AM
rating: 4
 
MattWinks

Because that Hunter Pence trade is an outlier and it was horrendous. If the Astros ever turn it around, that is going to be one of the defining moments.

Nov 14, 2012 15:56 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

Dempster, not valued as highly as Johnson, still netted some future potential. I'd like to think even Buehrle would've gotten at least a grade-B prospect back himself.

Nov 15, 2012 15:54 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

You're being too generous to the Marlins. I don't believe for one second they thought they were able to contend last year. They just bought a few players and a manager to hype up their new ballpark then promptly ditched them. Even if the Marlins got to the playoffs, even if they got to the World Series, I still think they still would've sold off Bell/Buehrle/Reyes etc well before their contracts were up.

As an aside, I'm a little tired of my AL Scoresheet Keeper rookies getting traded to the NL now that Marisnick's joined the fray... and he's the type the Marlins will promote before he's ready to whiff away at breaking balls.

But, for some laughs, there are some gems in ESPN's reactions to the trade. http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8629232/twitter-reaction-blue-jays-marlins-blockbuster-mlb

My favorite:

"Hey Lakers. That's not how you alienate a fan base. THIS is how you alienate a fan base - love, the Marlins" - Matthew Berry

Nov 13, 2012 18:16 PM
rating: 5
 
Lespaul1

How long before Marlins season ticket holders file a lawsuit?

Nov 13, 2012 18:48 PM
rating: 5
 
Richard Bergstrom

Wouldn't it be funny if the Marlins timed this so that season ticket holders couldn't get a refund?

Nov 13, 2012 19:51 PM
rating: 0
 
Matt Commins

I would demand a refund if I was season ticket holder; I would also sue Loria and ask him to pay for the stadium with the revenue sharing money they're going to receive

Nov 13, 2012 20:38 PM
rating: 4
 
Vohdre

You guys are assuming the Marlins HAVE season ticket holders.

Nov 14, 2012 09:38 AM
rating: 5
 
yadenr

And Loria would have you burned in half the long way with a laser beam.

Nov 14, 2012 18:46 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

... and some time between the splitting of your spleen and the first inch of intestines getting lopped off, you would realize that you were the one who paid for the laser beam.

Nov 15, 2012 15:52 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Geoff Young
BP staff

Padres season ticket holders did that after their team's fire sale under Tom Werner in 1993. The team ended up offering refunds to those who requested them.

Nov 14, 2012 06:40 AM
 
jbriaz

From a financial standpoint, I'm not sure it makes sense for the Blue Jays to take on all those deals in terms of years and money. Of course, it makes them better for 2013, but at what cost? Perhaps they are expanding financially and this means nothing. But this does seem to be a change of pace for them.

And oh yeah, Loria is an awful owner. He needs to go.

Nov 13, 2012 20:03 PM
rating: 1
 
juiced

These two claims can't be true simultaneously. Loria is either wise for getting Toronto to take on a bunch of risky contracts or he is bailing out of the contracts too early

Nov 13, 2012 20:15 PM
rating: 3
 
John Hilton

This makes tremendous sense for the Jays from a financial point of view. You just have to look at the Jays as being a national team, not just one from Toronto. Unless you are Canadian, you wouldn't realize the tremendous difference between the US and Canadian media markets that exist.

Their owner, Roger Communications, is a media giant in Canada. The Jays are one the major items on their sports channel, which is equivalent to ESPN in the USA. Unlike markets like Boston, NY and LA, the Toronto media market actually extends across Canada and encompasses 30 million households, which makes it one of the largest potential sports viewship markets in the world. Say what you want about YES or NESN but neither one is reaching a market of 30 million people.

If the Jays got serious, they are potentially one of the richest teams in baseball. They already have the richest owner in terms of worth. They have the media as described above. Toronto is a market of 6 million with most people in the city being among the most affluent in Canada. In reality, only the Yankees and the Dodgers could potentially generate more revenue. The Jays could certainly outspend Boston and the two Chicago teams.

Rogers needed a splash for their network to rekindle interest. They did so today. They may still go and grab an elite free agent. They still have a stacked farm system. They have just announced their intention to become one of the big boys like they were in past.

Nov 13, 2012 20:17 PM
rating: 10
 
John Hilton

Sorry, I didn't mean 30 million households. I meant 30 million people.

Nov 13, 2012 20:22 PM
rating: 2
 
jbriaz

I didn't mean that Loria was stupid, financially speaking, for getting out of the contracts. I meant as an MLB owner. He is bad for the sport. And yes, to echo the comments in response to mine, if the Blue Jays start to pony up and utilize their economic advantages, the money won't matter.

Nov 13, 2012 20:42 PM
rating: 3
 
juiced

Fair enough.

Nov 14, 2012 09:56 AM
rating: 1
 
yankee

Quick question, Did Loria put up any money for the new stadium
or was it strictly public money ?

Paul

Nov 14, 2012 15:37 PM
rating: 0
 
Taldan9
(107)

The blue Jays owner is the wealthiest in the majors. Before this, they wouldn't spend.

Nov 14, 2012 15:24 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

To add a bit of PR insult to injury, the Marlins should've targeted a player who wasn't banned for writing Spanish homophobic slurs on his eyeblack since, from what I understand, there is a pretty thriving homosexual community in Miami...

Nov 13, 2012 20:05 PM
rating: 0
 
ofMontreal

It doesn't matter. No way Escobar plays for Maimi, he's going to AZ before the year is out.

Nov 13, 2012 21:21 PM
rating: -1
 
19braves77

getting double taxed in Toronto isn't going to be fun.

Nov 13, 2012 20:15 PM
rating: -3
 
John Carter

Canadian taxes aren't that much higher, are they? As a dual citizen, I don't get double taxed, but I do pay whatever the highest rate would be between the countries - and I might lose a break because of it. Perhaps, in these high priced ballplayer income brackets, there might be some double taxing.

Nov 13, 2012 21:28 PM
rating: 1
 
John Carter

Jerry Narron?

Nov 13, 2012 21:37 PM
rating: -1
 
John Hilton

By the way, I am calling it here first. The Jays next manager will be Joe Torre. There is no way they are going into the season with a greenhorn with all the money that was just spent.

Please do not interpret my comment to mean that I actually think the manager is important.

Nov 13, 2012 20:21 PM
rating: 0
 
John Carter

They've already announced that they are seeking a veteran manager. I'd put my money on Jim Tracy or Ken Macha over Joe Torre, who is much older and probably just as soon prefer to stay retired.

Nov 13, 2012 21:34 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

Tracy would be a mistake. Macha might work but he did have some problems with the A's clubhouse as I recall and with towing Beane's line. Someone like Acta might be interesting and would probably fit the saber-mindset Anthropoulous has. I could also see something out of left field like Don Baylor.

Nov 14, 2012 01:31 AM
rating: 0
 
T. Kiefer

A few nights ago on the MLB Network it was intimated that Larry Bowa was interviewed for the job.

Nov 14, 2012 11:26 AM
rating: 0
 
saucyjack88

Bobby Cox has been contacted by the Jays. THAT would be interesting. I think Torre would be the best fit though.

Nov 14, 2012 13:17 PM
rating: 0
 
CalledStrike3

If Baltimore can come within a game of winning the AL East with the below average talent they had last season: The time is now for Toronto to Load the Gun and Fire. Joey Bats isn't getting any younger and the Blue Jay pieces past, present and future are there.

If d'Arnaud becomes the AL version of Buster Posey it gets exciting. The Jays made solid trades to shore up their staff full of power arms in the last couple of years .... This will be the fastest team in Baseball but with the capability to hit 150 Home Runs.

The Stars are aligning.... good trade for both sides - it makes no sense for Miami to pay major leaguers millions to play on a quadruple A team - and they add a couple of future pieces.

Nov 13, 2012 20:33 PM
rating: 2
 
Michael Bodell
(89)

I wonder how much of the Jays spending more and going for it has to do with the new 2 wild cards which must greatly increase their odds of making the playoffs (even if only for 1 game).

Nov 13, 2012 20:40 PM
rating: 0
 
Matt Commins

I think the new wild card format had an impact but there are two biger reasons why the trade was made; José Bautista's age , he's not getting any younger; this the weakest the AL East has been in a long time

Nov 13, 2012 21:00 PM
rating: 8
 
eliyahu

Can't overstate this. Yankees and Red Sox are eminently beatable now -- neither team has been as vulnerable in years -- and Jays are seizing opportunity.

Nov 13, 2012 21:55 PM
rating: 12
 
ofMontreal

Hmmm. What if Johnson is cooked? What if Buehrle isn't more than a one win pitcher? What if Reyes misses half the season? I'm excited about this deal too, but Miami isn't stupid about talent. This was an ok deal for them.

Nov 13, 2012 21:29 PM
rating: 1
 
Matt Commins

Supposing that's true, why sign them last offseason in the first place?

Nov 13, 2012 21:45 PM
rating: 4
 
eppsaw

that risk far outweighs what the Jays gave up

Nov 14, 2012 08:05 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

Risk? The Jays found a way to offload Vernon Wells. I'm sure figuring out how to offload someone like Buehrle will be less risky.

Nov 14, 2012 14:29 PM
rating: -1
 
pphunk

Buehrle pitched in the AL Central for how many years? I think he'll handle the Jr. Circuit juuuuust fine.

Nov 13, 2012 22:05 PM
rating: 2
 
ahemmer

In his career, Buehrle's been great against the Orioles, okay against the Red Sox and Rays (including a perfect game), and terrible against the Yankees. His main advantage is he is a strike thrower, and the AL East is notoriously patient. If he can do his usual thing and get ahead in counts, he may be okay. He does risk becoming homer-prone, though.

Nov 14, 2012 06:32 AM
rating: 1
 
Aaron/YYZ

"in his career" tells us nearly nothing about this year though. What Buerhle did against AL East teams even 5 years ago is worthless for predicting what he will do this year.

Nov 14, 2012 08:56 AM
rating: 0
 
Pat Folz

If you're going to actually rebuild, then don't you get as much talent as possible? Escobar might in theory be pretty good but he's 29 and sucked out loud last year, not to mention his various off-field concerns. Alvarez is a crummy back-end guy, Mathis is Mathis, and the rest... maybe I'm wildly misreading the industry appraisal of these guys, but are any of them even MLB Top 50 material? Nicolino is the only one who even strikes me as a likely Top 100 guy. Honestly, I'm not even sure I'd take this return over what the Brewers got for Greinke, and that was for two months of one guy.

Instead they opt for "salary relief", which seems like a wasted opportunity. Johnson and Reyes have health issues of course, but they're both among the best in MLB when they play and they're both in their primes. I just think you *have* to turn that into an elite prospect or two.

And that's before considering that it's the Marlins and they're less likely to sign top free agents than I am. Or maybe Loria got word that the SEC's going to come down hard and he's saving up for some lawyers.....

Nov 14, 2012 01:55 AM
rating: 3
 
Behemoth

You're misreading the prospects. Marisnick and Nicolino are probably both on the margins of the top 50. Hechevarria has some value as well, although the bat is a problem as discussed. He can play well all round the infield as a defensive utility guy at least.

The other thing that's missing is the money. Not having to pay the best part of $200 million in potentially overvalued contracts is crucial. Buehrle will not live up to that contract - yes, there's value in 200 slightly below average innings a year, but not close to $18-20 million a year. Reyes is not cheap, and will probably be hanging on by the end of the deal. They only get Johnson (who is made of glass) for a year. Bonifacio has his uses, but he's hardly an elite player. All of that doesn't add up to lots of elite prospects.

Nov 14, 2012 03:11 AM
rating: 4
 
Pat Folz

Marisnick is that well-regarded? Could be, I guess. I thought the write-up here was unflattering and he got eaten alive in AA.

Anyways, I get that a big part of the value the Marlins got was sending Buehrle and Buck and the last few years of Reyes' contract away. I just believe quite strongly that if they're really serious about "rebuilding" they should have kept the bad contracts, maybe even sent some money with Reyes, and gotten d'Arnaud included. Or elite talent from another team.

But that's, ahem, not Loria's top priority.

Nov 14, 2012 18:55 PM
rating: 0
 
LowDraw67

As a Jays fan, the only player I am sorry to see leave is Hechavarria. And that is saying something. Escobar was a goner before this trade occurred. And while Nicolino is a promising prospect, the fact that the Jays did not deal d'Arnaud, Sanchez or Syndergaard, is huge. Alvarez might develop into a decent middle of the rotation guy if he can figure out how to throw a breaking pitch. But right now, he's basically a 2 pitch pitcher.

Lots of risk for the Jays in terms of health and assumption of salary, but realistically, they didn't give up too much. They still have their core MLB guys in place and their top prospects remain intact.

Nov 14, 2012 07:30 AM
rating: 1
 
amazin_mess

The fact they didn't get d'Arnaud makes the deal a huge loss for Miami. That team is out of Miami within five years. No one is going to show up now.

Nov 14, 2012 04:24 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Matt Kory
BP staff

I don't know the legalities behind it, but I can't fathom that after building a publicly funded stadium, the Marlins would be permitted to leave town in five years.

Nov 14, 2012 10:25 AM
 
Llarry

And why would he leave? Do we have any evidence that Loria's on his way to the poor house? He doesn't sell a lot of tickets, but at what he pays out most years, he doesn't need to. He got his stadium. Every few years he pops up and makes a run at respectability, even got a championship once like his predecessor, just enough to try to convince everyone (that matters) that he's a real owner.

Most owners want to win. Making a profit is important, but they'll put up with some losses to get that ring. Loria has shown he's not really that kind of guy.

Nov 14, 2012 13:10 PM
rating: 0
 
terryspen

The Marlins have a 30-year contract on the stadium -- they aren't leaving town. But they don't need to draw large crowds to make good money. Even before they sell a ticket they make enough through revenue sharing and broadcast rights to cover the payroll they will now have -- those documents Deadspin got a couple years ago showed the Marlins were hugely profitable drawing no one at a football stadium where they had an unfavorable lease.

Nov 14, 2012 14:07 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

Besides, while owning a MLB franchise, you get huge tax write-offs.

Nov 14, 2012 14:30 PM
rating: -1
 
PeterBNYC

Because we don't like him, we underestimate the cunning and tenacity of Mr. Loria. He won't go until he's damn ready, and he will keep pulling stuff like this until he's gone. At the end of the day, this is a salary dump, in tune with Marlins history. Ho hum. Whenever we think we have Mr. Loria figured out, he pulls something like this out of his bag. Season ticketholders who DONT sue are the yokels he took them for. And MLB will do nothing, nothing.

Nov 14, 2012 08:28 AM
rating: 1
 
thegeneral13

You have the logic reversed. We don't underestimate the tenacity of Loria because we don't like him; we don't like him because of his tenacity in disregarding the investments fans, the Miami community, and taxpayers have made in his ballclub.

Nov 14, 2012 08:49 AM
rating: 11
 
Llarry

"He won't go until he's damn ready, and he will keep pulling stuff like this until he's" *driven out of town on a rail by a mob of villagers with torches and pitchforks and possibly with a wooden stake through his heart.*


Fixed that for you.

Nov 14, 2012 13:12 PM
rating: 5
 
saucyjack88

Actually, it is in the Commissioner's power to force Loria to sell the team under the "better interest of baseball" concept. I think MLB would be very well served, particularly at this point in time, to save the Miami market, to force Loria out.

The problem is, how can the Commissioner approve the trade but then force out one of the participants in that trade? Wee bit of a conundrum that.

Nov 14, 2012 13:24 PM
rating: 1
 
jdeich

Sadly, the presented analysis lacks a deep dive into The Mathis Impact. Mathis is coming off his best offensive season ever, where he more than doubled his total career's bWAR. Plus, his career 1.150 postseason OPS shows his clutchy, gritty #want.

Nov 14, 2012 08:36 AM
rating: 1
 
terryspen

I've had Marlins weekend season tickets since 2007 and was on the fence about renewing, but now they have pushed me off. When I renewed last fall, they made it sound like I had better act fast because with the new stadium (which to their and Miami taxpayers' credit is a great place to watch a game) and free agent signings (we are serious about going after Pujols), getting shutout was a real possiblity.

It turned out that in my section (upper deck, 15 rows up, directly behind home plate) there was almost no one within 10 rows of me at just about every game after April. Beyond being a team that became increasingly joyless to watch as the season progressed, the team's promotional items and postgame concerts were a joke. And now it turns out that the commitment to being competitive was also a lie. Even when they traded Cabrera, at least Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller were (wrongly) projected as potential stars - I just don't see that here, short- or long-term. This is potentially a 110-loss team. I'll go to five or six games, buying deeply discounted tickets off Stubhub.

Nov 14, 2012 09:06 AM
rating: 4
 
tweicheld

This is what I love about BP, having just read through 42 comments. From where I sit, Loria has stuck it to Marlins fans once again. Yes, some of the traded players don't have great health histories, but the Marlins got nothing to speak of. Any chance Loria gets a call from the commish (yeah right)? On a separate topic, I still want to know what it is about Florida that makes MLB such a tough sell. Too many other options for the public's entertainment dollars?

Nov 14, 2012 09:40 AM
rating: 1
 
juiced

I think the Jays improved themselves for 2013 by 8 wins with this trade.

Nov 14, 2012 09:57 AM
rating: 2
 
froston
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

shut up ju1ced

Nov 14, 2012 11:12 AM
rating: -16
 
NYYanks826

I would be wary of Yunel Escobar's OBP, as well. He had the lowest walk rate of his career this year, and it doesn't even seem that close. With what projects to be an extremely weak lineup surrounding him, I can't imagine pitchers are going to be too afraid to pitch to him.

Nov 14, 2012 09:58 AM
rating: 0
 
boards

Looking at the contracts page for the Marlins, they have 1 arb-eligible player going into 2013 (Ryan Webb). The only player signed past 2013 is newly-acquired Jeff Mathis at $1.5 million. Giancarlo Stanton and several others will be arb-eligible for the first time in 2014.

Enjoy Stanton in 2013 Marlin fan - he could be gone before he gets paid. I can already see the 2014 Marlins with a total payroll of $12.5 million.

Remember when Bowie Kuhn vetoed the selling off of A's players back in the 70's under the best interests of baseball clause? (I am not a fan of Kuhn, BTW). Beelzebud? You're kidding, right?

I am really glad Loria wasn't serious about moving here to San Antonio.

Nov 14, 2012 14:29 PM
rating: 0
 
John Carter

Why blame a losing team without good prospects for the next season to sell off all their bloated contracts they can for as many promising young players they can? Marisnick, Nicolino, Hechavarria, and even the social ignoramus Escobar have some promise.

What the Marlins need to do, however, is put that money into player development. I talked to a pitcher breaking through in another organization who came through the Marlins' system. They gave him almost no instruction or guidance at all compared to his new club.

Nov 14, 2012 17:12 PM
rating: 0
 
John Carter

Why the minuses? Does this have to do with providing an inside scoop without naming names? He is a family friend I wish to protect. Is there something about my observation regarding the trade itself that is incorrect or illogical? Are teams not allowed to have rebuilding phases just because they have a new stadium? I'd love to pile on the hate towards Loria - and I do with my scoop about his farm system, but I don't fault him for this particular deal.

Nov 15, 2012 09:54 AM
rating: 0
 
John Carter

Apparently, it is not such an outlandish opinion. From John Perrotto today: Front-office types' views:

Marlins: "Like everyone else, I'm not a very big fan of Jeffrey Loria, but I have a hard time, strictly from a baseball standpoint, having a problem with tearing apart a 93-loss team. I don't think they were going to be any better next season, so why not try something different?

Nov 15, 2012 10:19 AM
rating: 0
 
greensox

I can't believe that BP is actually evaluating the micro aspects of this trade with a straight face.
It's an absolute travesty - corporate welfare at it's worst.

Nov 15, 2012 06:56 AM
rating: 0
 
Isaac Lin

Small clarification: Rogers' sports channel, Sportsnet, is more like Fox Sports, as Sportsnet consists of four regional networks (Fox had a minority ownership stake, though I'm not sure if it still does). The previous majority owner of Sportsnet, CTV, now owns TSN, which is the equivalent of ESPN, both in terms of its national network coverage and popularity (ESPN has a minority share in TSN).

Nov 20, 2012 10:20 AM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Internet Baseball Awar... (11/14)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (11/14)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (11/16)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (11/15)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Player Profile: David Robertson
Fantasy Article The -Only League Landscape: National League ...
Fantasy Article Tale of the Tape, Dynasty Edition: Nick Burd...
Fantasy Article Dynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 50 R...
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Huston Street Might Have Reli...
Pitching Backward: In Search of the Winninge...
Rubbing Mud: A Solution Does Not Exist

MORE FROM NOVEMBER 14, 2012
Pebble Hunting: The 10 Best Slides: A Slide ...
Premium Article Overthinking It: The Moves Alex Anthopoulos ...
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Wednesday, November 14
The Lineup Card: Seven Ways to Get Your Off-...
Premium Article Prospect Profile: Kyle Kaminska
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Cubs Sign a Dusty Bake...
Premium Article Collateral Damage: 2012 Year-End Injury Summ...

MORE BY R.J. ANDERSON
2012-11-26 - Painting the Black: What's Wrong With Wil My...
2012-11-21 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Home for the Holidays
2012-11-16 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Laird Do Well
2012-11-14 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Toronto Blue Jays ...
2012-11-12 - Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: The Value Picks We ...
2012-11-05 - Resident Fantasy Genius: Q&A with Brian Kenn...
2012-10-29 - Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: The Ones We Got Wro...
More...

MORE TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
2012-11-21 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Home for the Holidays
2012-11-16 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Melky Flees To Canada
2012-11-16 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Laird Do Well
2012-11-14 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Toronto Blue Jays ...
2012-11-14 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Never-Ending Torii...
2012-11-14 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Cubs Sign a Dusty Bake...
2012-11-12 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The One Where David Ro...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2012-12-05 - The Lineup Card: 9 Winter Meetings Memories
2012-11-19 - The Week in Quotes: November 12-18
2012-11-15 - Rumor Roundup: Thursday, November 15
2012-11-14 - Premium Article Overthinking It: The Moves Alex Anthopoulos ...
2012-11-14 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Wednesday, November 14
2012-11-14 - The Lineup Card: Seven Ways to Get Your Off-...
2012-11-14 - Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of November 13