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March 29, 2013

32 Predictions Contest

2013 Edition

by Sky Kalkman

This is the fifth year I’ve run this contest, but the first here at Baseball Prospectus. I stole the format from an old differential equations professor of mine, Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference, and heck, I might as well steal his directions, too (translated into baseball-speak):

Below you will find 32 pairs of numbers. In each case, you tell me which number will be bigger. One point for each correct answer. Most points wins.

Ties—and there is a solid chance of ties occurring—go to the side that had fewer votes. For example, here is a pair of numbers:

Wins by the Yankees
Wins by the Red Sox

Let’s say 41 people take the Yankees and 54 take the Red Sox. If the Yankees and Red Sox end up with the same number of wins, then each Yankee-backer will get a point and each Red Sox-backer will not.

To enter, fill out the Google survey below. (If you don't see it, refresh.) The grand prize is Fame and Glory, with Bragging Rights going to everyone who finishes with at least a .500 record. (Last year the average score was 16.3 out of 32. Ouch.) Correlation is not causation, but Mike Fast is a previous winner, and look where he is now…

Ballots are due Monday, April 1 at midnight Pacific. In case of an overall tie, the winner is the person who entered first. Please help spread the word.

Update (March 30, 2013): The grand prize has been upgraded from bragging rights to a free one-year premium subscription to Baseball Prospectus!

Update (April 11, 2013): A summary of all the responses is available here.

Sky Kalkman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sky's other articles. You can contact Sky by clicking here

Related Content:  Predictions

16 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links


There should be a prize. Say, a book of the winner's choice from the BP Library.

That won't break you.

Mar 29, 2013 09:13 AM
rating: 2

I love some of those questions, particularly Francoeur/Rivera.

Mar 29, 2013 11:33 AM
rating: 3
Sky Kalkman

Thanks! Had a lot of help from folks on twitter, including this pair.

Mar 29, 2013 11:56 AM
rating: 0

Love it.

Is there anywhere we can go to check how we are doing?

Mar 29, 2013 15:22 PM
rating: 1
Sky Kalkman

There won't be anything automated, but I may do a mid-season update in addition to the final standings. I will post the full ballot so you can track your own progress.

Mar 30, 2013 04:32 AM
rating: 1

Does an Astro pitchers' win count all the way after he got traded? i.e. Bud Norris & Lucas Harrell.

Mar 29, 2013 16:39 PM
rating: 0
Sky Kalkman

Nope, just while on the team.

Mar 30, 2013 05:23 AM
rating: 0

This is great, but I do still miss HACKING MASS

Mar 29, 2013 17:57 PM
rating: 4

Happy Jubilee Star Deluxe Celebration award for fun contest.

Mar 29, 2013 18:56 PM
rating: 0

Bases stolen on Yadie vs misses by scutaro? What If both numbers are 0?

Mar 29, 2013 21:05 PM
rating: 0
Sky Kalkman

Ties go to the less popular option.

Mar 30, 2013 04:31 AM
rating: 0
Tim Carvin

This is fantastic. That is my full comment and ringing endorsement.

Mar 30, 2013 05:58 AM
rating: 0
BP staff member Joe Hamrahi
BP staff

Since Sky took the time to put this together and share it with our group, we'll award the grand prize winner with a 1-year premium subscription to Baseball Prospectus. I'll amend the prize in an update to the article above.

Good luck!

Mar 30, 2013 11:46 AM
Sky Kalkman

Thanks, Joe!

And don't worry, everyone, the winner will still receive the Fame and Glory referenced above.

Mar 30, 2013 16:30 PM
rating: 2

Are people who helped with the formation of questions eligible?

Mar 30, 2013 21:46 PM
rating: 0
Dave Holgado

Where's the one for whether or not Bryce Harper will beat his PECOTA? Kidding! Love this, great idea.

Mar 30, 2013 23:12 PM
rating: 0
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