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April 22, 2013

The Stash List

First Edition

by Bret Sayre

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If you’re a long-time rotisserie baseball player, you surely remember the days of just having an active lineup and nothing else. In fact, I’m sure some readers still play in leagues like that—my biggest home league is like that, and has been since it was formed back in 1984. However, as the game has expanded and developed, it has changed. It is now the norm to have multiple reserve/bench spots, and I play in leagues where that number ranges anywhere from three to eight. Those bench spots are valuable commodities and can be used in any number of ways.

Essentially, the choice of how you use your each of your bench spots comes down to the following question: Do I want to extract small pieces of value throughout the entire season or do I want to stash a high-upside player who may have potentially significant value down the line? More often than not, these bench spots are used on pitchers who can be plugged in as need be to boost your performance in pitching categories. But there are other options. In fact, I wrote back in February about the potential benefit to using the opportunity cost of a bench spot as part of a position player platoon. However, the ends of benches are best left for the potential fantasy gold mines—and that’s why this column exists.

Now that the background is out of the way, let me introduce you to the first installment of The Stash List. The purpose of it is to rank the top 25 players who are not active contributors to fantasy teams for 2013 only. Again, it does not take into account future value, which would result in a very different order. This list will include five different types of players, with specific restrictions attached:

Minor Leaguers: anyone currently in the minors. There is no ownership restriction for this category.

Major Leaguers on the DL: anyone current on the disabled list that is owned in fewer than 25 percent of leagues. The restriction is there to exclude obvious players like Hanley Ramirez or Zack Greinke, as I find it hard to believe they’d be on the wire in any leagues.

Closers-in-waiting: any reliever who is not actively getting saves and is owned in fewer than 25 percent of leagues. This excludes pitchers who are in “committees” and setup men who are widely owned for their own values, like Aroldis Chapman during April and May of 2012.

Others-in-waiting: any other player who is not currently active in the role that would net him the most fantasy value. This includes pitchers who are in line for a rotation spot but are not currently there, and position players who are not receiving regular playing time. These are players who would see a huge uptick in value from a change in role, like Kris Medlen in 2012.

As an added bonus, throughout the course of this series I am going to sporadically add content from BP’s scouting and injury experts on players who warrant it—all to get the best information to you, the readers, about these players. And now, I’ve officially rambled enough in the introduction, as I’m sure you’re all waiting for me to stop typing so we get to the list faster. It’s okay, I get it. So when it’s all over, let me know if you like it. I plan on putting a lot of effort into this over the course of the season, so if it’s not a valuable resource, I’m happy to put that effort in elsewhere.

Without any further ado, here is the inaugural version of The Stash List:

1) Jurickson Profar, SS/2B, Texas Rangers

Profar might not be the player you’d expect to see at the top of this list, but I just don’t see how the Rangers can continue to run Mitch Moreland out there with his Hall of Fame caliber 38 OPS+. They are trying to win a division after all. Whether Ian Kinsler or Lance Berkman moves to first base, someone’s going to do so in order to make room for the number-one prospect in the game. And with his second-base eligibility, Profar could certainly be a top-10 option at the position once he’s up. After all, the 12th- and 13th-most valuable fantasy second basemen so far in 2013 are Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz. Seriously.

2) Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

In reality, Myers is more of a 1a instead of truly being second fiddle to Profar. With that said, even though the safe money is on Myers beating Profar to the majors, I consider the safe money to be on Profar outperforming him for fantasy purposes once he’s there.

3) Billy Hamilton, SS/OF, Cincinnati Reds

Mmmm… steals. There’s an opening for Hamilton when he’s deemed ready, but he’s still learning to play center field, and he’s been struggling offensively to start the season. Hamilton’s speed is no joke—if he can find his way to the majors by June 1, he could steal 40 bases easily.

4) Shaun Marcum, SP, New York Mets

And, we finally have our first non-prospect on the list. Right now, it looks like Marcum will potentially be back in the Mets rotation as soon as Saturday against the Phillies. He has one last test remaining, an extended spring training start on Monday, where he’s expected to throw 70-75 pitchers. Health is always going to be an issue with Marcum, but when he pitches, he’s productive for fantasy. He hasn’t had an ERA over 4.00 or a K/9 under 7.0 since 2007.

5) Adam Eaton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

With a potential mid-May return, Eaton still could rack up enough at-bats once he’s off the disabled list to notch 25 steals and 75-plus runs scored. The Diamondbacks love Eaton and should get him in the lineup nearly every day, despite the solid play they’ve received from Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock in his absence.

6) Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

Arenado is off to a fast start this year, hitting .389/.417/.759 with three homers, 11 doubles and 19 RBI in just 54 at bats. And while it is Colorado Springs and the PCL, he won’t exactly be going to a pitcher-friendly park when he gets the call. So far, the Rockies have been one of the most surprising teams in baseball, sitting in first place, but that has come despite sub-700 OPS efforts from both Chris Nelson and Josh Rutledge.

7) Oscar Taveras, OF, St Louis Cardinals

If this were a keeper or dynasty league list, Taveras would be way up at the number-two spot, but the ways that he would hold serious fantasy value in 2013 are difficult to predict with any certainty. That’s especially the case with Matt Adams killing it as the first guy off the bench (or in the lineup in case of injury). However, if Taveras were to get the call and see regular playing time, he’d immediately be at least a top-50 outfielder.

8) Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
9) Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets

I’m going to group Cole and Wheeler into the same writeup, since I’d rather not just flat-out repeat myself. When these two pitchers are deemed ready by their organizations, they will get the call—neither team is dripping with starting pitching talent at the major-league level. However, they’ve also both started out being uncharacteristically wild, as Cole has walked 11 batters in 16 1/3 innings and Wheeler has issued 12 free passes in 18 1/3 frames. I still expect both to be up by June 1 and I still love both of these guys long term, but their 2013-only outlooks are starting to get a little murkier.

10) Francisco Liriano, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Look, I know: I’m a sucker for Liriano and I’m not afraid to admit it. I thought I was done with him, but moving to Pittsburgh sucked me right back in. Not only is PNC Park a great place for a southpaw to call home, but Russell Martin should also have a positive effect on his performance. There’s always a ton of risk with Liriano, but he just might have the highest upside of any pitcher on this list.

11) Dan Straily, RHP, Oakland Athletics

It seems clear at this point that Straily is the A’s sixth starter, and being the sixth starter for an organization that is relying on Brett Anderson and Bartolo Colon is a beautiful thing. Straily has been dominant against Triple-A lineups this year, accumulating 27 strikeouts and one walk in 19 1/3 innings. And yes, I’m including the Astros in that group.

12) Brandon Beachy, RHP, Atlanta Braves

Beachy is still on the path to recovery from Tommy John surgery that he underwent on June 21, 2012. It’s tempting to think that he might be back before the end of June this year, but I usually add an extra month into my expectations with Tommy John returnees. This ranking is assuming he’ll be back in the second half of July, as he’d be much higher if we were talking about the potential of four months of Beachy.

13) Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners

I know Zunino has been very impressive in his short time in the minors, but this is actually a very aggressive ranking for a catcher. Catchers are slower to be fantasy relevant than players at any other position, and really the only exception to this we’ve seen in the last decade or so has been Buster Posey. That, combined with the depth of the position for fantasy, puts him outside the top 10. One caveat: He clearly moves up if you play in a two-catcher format.

14) Drew Smyly, LHP, Detroit Tigers

The cries in Detroit for Smyly to join the Tigers rotation only got louder when Rick Porcello allowed 10,000 runs in less than an inning this past Saturday. Smyly has always been the higher-upside option of the two, both in real life and fantasy—and the sooner the Tigers realize this, the happier we’ll all be.

15) Kevin Gausman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
16) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians

These two starters are grouped together as well, as they are essentially like Cole and Wheeler, except slightly less talented and with slightly more competition for any potential rotation opening. Gausman has been the darling of scouts since the start of spring training, but despite a great 21-to-1 K:BB, he’s gotten hit around a bit in Double-A. Bauer’s been great in his two minor league starts, but in his one start for Cleveland, he was back to his old tricks (seven walks in five innings).

17) Erasmo Ramirez, RHP, Seattle Mariners

The Eraser has been sidelined so far with a triceps injury, but with how awful Brandon Maurer and Aaron Harang have been in front of him, I can’t imagine it takes too long for him to get back in the rotation. Lots of fantasy owners have forgotten about Ramirez by now, but don’t let yourself fall into that category.

18) Colby Lewis, RHP, Texas Rangers

The Rangers still expect Lewis back by June 1, and he is currently throwing side sessions in advance of a trip to extended spring training. And Matt Harrison’s injury only makes Lewis more valuable upon his return.

19) Trevor Rosenthal, RHP, St Louis Cardinals

There’s no reason why Rosenthal shouldn’t be the closer in St Louis once he works out his early-season kinks. Edward Mujica is fine, and he’s a pretty good reliever, but Rosenthal could be a top-five option if he were to get the job.

20) Chris Archer, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

“Archer came to Tampa Bay as a key piece in the trade that sent Matt Garza to the Cubs back in 2011. Since then he was been pitching very well for the Rays AAA team in Durham. Don't let his record down there fool you; the kid can pitch. His fastball is consistently in the 92-94 range, but he has the ability to reach back when need be and get it up to 96. As good as his fastball is, it is his second best pitch to his filthy slider. This slider I speak of is and has been a MLB quality pitch. He throws it in the low-90s range and the nasty, almost-violent break it possesses can over match even the better hitters in the big leagues. Archer has a decent changeup but it needs some work and fine-tuning. That being said, the fastball-slider combo is impressive. He's averaged a cool 11 K/9 in the minors and nine K/9 in his six big-league appearances last year (four starts).

The big question about Archer's MLB readiness is his control. He walked 62 in 128 innings at Triple-A last year. The good news is, most think the control issue is more mental than mechanical. He won't need to change his delivery or anything major mechanically. This is where playing in the Rays system is huge for a player like him. The Rays have a great track record dealing with live young arms like Archer's. With Jeff Niemann out for the season already, that just leaves Roberto Hernandez as his only roadblock to a spot in the Rays’ big-league rotation. Hernandez hasn't looked all that great so far this season, so it could be much sooner than later before the Rays make the call to the farm for Archer and his slider to join the Rays in the bigs.” —Chris King

21) Ted Lilly, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

He’s returning this Wednesday against the Mets, but he still counts, since he’s on the disabled list and owned in far fewer than 25 percent of leagues. He should have a rotation spot for a while with both Chris Capuano and Chad Billingsley on the shelf.

22) Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners

The back end of the Mariners’ rotation has room for both Ramirez and Hultzen. And Hultzen’s control appears to be back in the normal range after his meltdown in Triple-A last season.

23) Matt Adams, 1B, St Louis Cardinals

Adams has made a mockery of the baseball so far this season, hitting over .500 with a home run every eight at-bats. Unfortunately, he’s just not going to get the playing time with the talent in front of him on the depth chart unless there’s an injury. And even if he does, he’ll have Taveras breathing down his neck.

24) Cory Luebke, LHP, San Diego Padres

Luebke may have had his Tommy John surgery a month earlier than Brandon Beachy, but he’s also already had what could be referred to as a mild setback, and he’s just not as good as Beachy when healthy. If he gets back on a mid-June track, he could take a healthy move up this list.

25) Jose Valverde, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Because, hey, you never know.

Honorable Mention: Dylan Bundy, Nick Franklin, Yasiel Puig, Tyler Skaggs, Alex Rodriguez

Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Bret's other articles. You can contact Bret by clicking here

46 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

BPKevin

Love it, great concept & read.

Apr 22, 2013 02:17 AM
rating: 8
 
jedjethro

This.

Apr 22, 2013 06:38 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Thanks guys - appreciate the feedback.

Apr 22, 2013 07:11 AM
 
Daddyboy

Yes. Really great. I will look forward to this every week.

Apr 22, 2013 13:08 PM
rating: 0
 
BloodStripes

Please keep putting the effort in Bret. Top idea. A very valuable resource.

Apr 22, 2013 04:13 AM
rating: 0
 
mblthd

Might Yelich get his chance soon, with Pierre (.191, .225, .221) "blocking" him in LF for the Marlins?

Apr 22, 2013 04:29 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

Yelich was hurt and just returned to action. IMO this pushes his timetable back somewhat.

Apr 22, 2013 06:47 AM
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Agreed - Yelich has only played in three games so far this year, and even if he was fully healthy to start the year and hitting well, the All-Star Break seemed like the most reasonable time to see him anyway. He should start making appearances on this list soon, though.

Apr 22, 2013 07:01 AM
 
Ameer

Love this article. But do we really believe Liriano still has upside at this point?

Apr 22, 2013 04:57 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

I still do, but I freely admit that I can easily be sucked back in with Liriano. How many other guys can you stash on your bench who struck out more than a batter per inning last year and are moving to a much more favorable situation? It worked for A.J. Burnett, so why can't it potentially work for Liriano?

Apr 22, 2013 07:15 AM
 
DanDaMan

With a bench of Lawrie, Machado, Hosmer and Jarod Parker I'm not sure I have room for any of these guys, but I love the concept of this article. Thanks.

Apr 22, 2013 06:07 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

There's nothing wrong with stashing Rosenthal in the hopes that he supplants Mujica, but if Mujica performs, there's no reason that the Cardinals will make a move simply for the sake of making a move.

Apr 22, 2013 06:55 AM
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

I agree with that, but I'd argue that Mujica has about as long of a leash right now as Boggs did coming into the season -- and has historically performed similarly to Boggs. I don't think it would take much for Rosenthal to move into the role if he puts together a nice string of appearances like the one on Saturday. It only took Boggs three appearances (with none back-to-back), to lose the gig.

Apr 22, 2013 07:11 AM
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

Agree, though I think it has more to do with Mujica messing up than with anything Rosenthal does. Closing probably should be a meritocracy, but it seldom is.

Apr 22, 2013 07:16 AM
 
Behemoth

There's no real reason why someone with Boggs' skills couldn't be an acceptable closer, is there? I mean the chances of someone with that sort of profile running off four or five cleanish outings to get themselves ensconsed as the closer must be relatively high.

Apr 22, 2013 07:25 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

Sure, that's kind of the nature of the job/role. The "manager's confidence" is such an intangible, yet a lot of times that's what we're dealing with here when it comes to relievers who really aren't that far apart in terms of their skill sets.

Apr 22, 2013 08:14 AM
 
BrianG

Nice article. My outfield is Harper, Adam jones, and Aoki. I have Hosmer and Kipnis for my bench and util spots. I'd love to grab Wil Myers as a potential upgrade over Aoki. Should I drop either Hosmer or Kipnis for Myers? I could also drop either of my closers (mujica or Perkins), as I've debated punting the saves category to make the rest of my team stronger. Straily is another guy who is available. It's a 12 team H2H league, 8x8, with avg and OBP. My other hitters are Mauer, Votto, altuve, Desmond, machado (have aramis on dl). Sorry if this is long winded. Thanks

Apr 22, 2013 07:30 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Thanks! If those are the guys you'd drop for Myers, I'd stand pat. I don't think Myers will be an upgrade over Aoki for overall value when he comes up (though he will be for power). Also, if you're thinking about punting saves (though I'm not sure why you would if you have two closers), trade them, don't drop them.

Apr 22, 2013 08:47 AM
 
bobbykester

Any comment/thoughts on Grant Green or David Phelps (had a tough week)?....Phelps seems to be the Yankees Smyly/Straily and Green was mentioned just last week in the weekly AL column...

Apr 22, 2013 07:52 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

The only problem with comparing Phelps to Smyly/Straily is that he's just not as talented as them, and he's not in a great situation as a guy who can struggle to get lefties out in a park which greatly helps lefties. Green is OK, but he's a much better idea in AL-only leagues. At best, he's essentially Daniel Murphy but with less batting average and fewer counting stats. And I'm talking about career Daniel Murphy, not the 2013 version.

Apr 22, 2013 09:02 AM
 
DDriesen

Appreciate the article. Wish my league was not so deep (20 teams ML) since there is only one guy mentioned that is not already rostered.

Apr 22, 2013 08:50 AM
rating: 1
 
jhardman

Fantastic article! Keep this series up!

No mention of Neftali Feliz or Joakim Soria? I assume that is because they would not supplant Joe Nathan, correct?

Apr 22, 2013 09:22 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Exactly. Plus, Feliz likely won't be back until September, so he's still well behind the other TJ recoverees on this list.

Apr 22, 2013 09:58 AM
 
jonmischa

Brandon Maurer has not been awful. His first two starts were bad (shocking, I know, that a 22-year-old rookie would start slow), but in his last two starts he's pitched 12.2 innings and given up 4 earned runs, with 7 K and 4 BB. It makes no sense that the Mariners would send him back now just as he's proving they made the right choice by keeping him around. Unless Maurer starts going in the other direction, there's only one available spot in the Mariners' rotation for Hultzen or Ramirez.

Apr 22, 2013 09:27 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

You can't just cherry pick his last two starts and say his first two are less important. He was skipped straight over Triple-A because of a need and he's got a 7.45 ERA which is as well-supported by his peripherals as a 7.45 ERA gets. It's not a knock on him long-term, he just may not be ready to seize a rotation spot for good yet.

Apr 22, 2013 10:05 AM
 
jonmischa

As a 22-year-old making his MLB debut this year, I absolutely think his first two starts are less important than his last two. And I disagree that he skipped AAA because of need. He was beating Ramirez in the competition for the last spot in the rotation before Ramirez got injured.

Apr 22, 2013 10:09 AM
rating: 0
 
Behemoth

Because the only things that show his true talent level are spring training stats, right?

Apr 22, 2013 14:24 PM
rating: 0
 
Gumby

I consider anyone's first two starts in April to be less important than their next two much (but not exactly) like spring training stats are less important than the regular season. This is just from observing how erratic and non-predictive results are in general, for both pitchers and hitters, in my purely non-scientific observation of the first week or two of every season.

Apr 22, 2013 15:31 PM
rating: 0
 
swarmee

I always put my trust in the third week of July.

Apr 22, 2013 15:52 PM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Paul Sporer
BP staff

I dunno, Jon. He wasn't making the club without Eraser's injury. Meanwhile the 7 K/4 BB is terrible in 12.7 IP with the 2 HR being even worse so even propping him up with the last two starts doesn't paint much of a picture.

Eraser still has proven more at the big league level and deserves that spot much more. That doesn't he *WILL* get it, but Bret is encouraging gambling with these picks and his case for Eraser is strong, IMO.

Apr 22, 2013 22:13 PM
 
xavier

Good stuff. Would love a list like this for deeper only leagues. Can Ryan Wheeler get some ABs in Denver if Helton hits the DL?

Apr 22, 2013 10:03 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

I'm not optimistic about it. I think it's probably more likely that they'd give Cuddyer some time at 1B and recall Tyler Colvin. Or they could give Eric Young more playing time. Or they could just bypass them all and call up Nolan Arenado. It's really unclear what the Rockies would do in that case, but I wouldn't be surprised at any of those outcomes.

Apr 22, 2013 10:31 AM
 
xavier

Wow I nailed that one :)
Now will Wheeler play at all?

Apr 25, 2013 15:31 PM
rating: 0
 
CalledStrike3

Honorable Mention:
C Devin Mesoraco
3B Anthony Rendon
P - Tony Cingrani
OF Oswaldo Arcia

Apr 22, 2013 10:18 AM
rating: 1
 
Kevin Ebert

If I were Kevin Gausman, I would be extremely insulted at being lumped in with Trevor Bauer. Gausman has 2 walks in 36 innings with multiple reports of dominant stuff. I wouldn't let a couple of so-so AA starts change my opinion of him. Especially when the peripherals are good and the reports on his stuff are still high on him.

Bauer has control problems, problems with his catchers, and it seems problems accepting coaching. Gausman shares in none of these things.

Kevin feels slighted having been lumped in with Bauer.

Apr 22, 2013 10:34 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Just to be clear, I was never comparing their control or ability to play nice with others, just simply their overall values and current places in their respective depth charts.

Apr 22, 2013 10:47 AM
 
Kevin Ebert

Fair enough.

Apr 22, 2013 10:57 AM
rating: 0
 
jimcal

Second to @jonmischa, I voiced my opinion in Harry Pavlidis's peice last Friday. ( http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20287 ) And in last game Maurer pitched, he only got 3 swinging strikes, but they are from a CU, a SL, and a FF. Which means although we don't see Maruer struck out as many batters (only 2 compared to 5 in previous matchup with Rangers) he actually try to stabilized his secondary further without getting hit hard like his first couple starts this season (although most of his CH and CU are threw for balls.) As long as his secondary stuff is usable, based on how much his fastball and slider move, hitters would have hard time to hit with authority.

Not try to disagree with Paul Sporer or Bret here, but Brandon Maurer has better upside compare to Eraser, who I also believe in. Compare their arsenal, I'd say if both were given opportunities, there is no reason to discount Maurer's effort trying to get his secondary working in Major league level.

Eraser will get his chance when he is healthy and has a couple good outings in Tacoma. But in terms of rest of season on stats, unless Maurer can't harness his secondary, which he displayed in spring training, Eraser will have to have catch up with everything clicking for him.

I have grown interest in Brandon Maurer and thinking about following this young man's development in major. Will keep an eye on his pitch f/x data going forward.

Apr 22, 2013 10:44 AM
rating: 0
 
ImpactBlue

Please keep this article going. Thanks for the great info and responses.

Apr 22, 2013 13:04 PM
rating: 0
 
Todd Stevens

Great Article, Love it!! What are the expectations for Michael Pineda?

Thanks!

Apr 22, 2013 13:25 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

I don't have many. It's been a long time since he got hurt and shoulder troubles are very tricky. Even if he can actually come back by some point in July, who knows which version of Pineda we'll actually see. Hopefully we'll have a better idea as we see him ramp up over the next few months.

Apr 22, 2013 15:15 PM
 
dewone

would love to see one for AL and NL onlys, maybe not every wk but once a month. Great idea, and solid list.

Apr 22, 2013 16:04 PM
rating: 1
 
Scott D. Simon

Enjoyed this. More, please.

Apr 22, 2013 17:41 PM
rating: 0
 
Will

more more more

Apr 22, 2013 21:45 PM
rating: 0
 
majnun

How do you like it? How do you like it?

Apr 23, 2013 04:52 AM
rating: 0
 
Tim Carvin

This is a phenomenal column. Keep this coming, it is amazingly helpful. I'd love an AL/NL only centric version every so often.

Apr 28, 2013 08:26 AM
rating: 0
 
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