CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Hit List: M... (07/21)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Buy... (07/18)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Use... (07/23)
Next Article >>
Premium Article The Weekend Shift (07/21)

July 21, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

The MLB Trade Landscape, Buyers

by Mike Gianella

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Two weeks ago, I looked at the potential sellers at the major league trade deadline. Today, I will take a look at potential buyers.

The same caveats from my last article apply. What I have compiled for our readers is a helpful, at-a-glance look at the potential trade market this month, particularly from the vantage point of teams that might be adding players. It is not meant to be an all-encompassing guide; it is possible some rumored targets are not listed below. Since this is a fantasy article, I will focus on fantasy impact but if you are a non-fantasy player and a Baseball Prospectus reader I hope this article proves useful to you as well.

I am not predicting who will buy or sell at the deadline but rather looking at teams that are in contention for the second wild card in each league at a minimum and examining what they might do if they decide to sell. Some of these teams might not pack it in for 2015, but are worth looking at in case they do.

Thanks to David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News. He put together a handy chart cataloging buyers’ potential needs, and I relied on his research for this piece with his permission.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

  • Contender Status: 1.5 GB of Athletics in AL West. Seven games ahead of Mariners for second Wild Card.
  • Top Need: Closer
  • Secondary Needs: Starting pitchers
  • Luxury Needs: Lefty relief specialist, extra left-handed bench bat, third baseman
  • Rumored Targets: Huston Street, Ian Kennedy, David Price, Tyson Ross.

In Brief: The Huston Street trade fills a need and further empties an already thin farm system. Another starting pitcher would be ideal, but given the Angels thin farm this could be a luxury item now. The best bet would be targeting a pure salary dump, which won’t bring in the kind of impact arm listed above.

Playing Time Risk: Joe Smith moves into a set-up role. He is droppable in all mixed formats. Hector Santiago and/or Matt Shoemaker would be the guys to go if the Angels do manage to grab a starting pitcher. Both are somewhat intriguing as deeper options long term but make me wary if you’re contending for a fantasy title now.

Detroit Tigers

  • Contender Status: First place, AL Central, 5.5 games ahead of Indians. 3.5 games ahead of Mariners forsecond Wild Card.
  • Top Need: Bullpen help.
  • Secondary Needs: Outfield depth, left-handed batter.
  • Luxury Needs: Lefty relief specialist
  • Rumored Targets: Joaquin Benoit, Joakim Soria, Brad Ziegler

In Brief: It is far more likely that the Tigers make a supplemental move or two as opposed to pulling the trigger on a blockbuster deal. Despite Joe Nathan’s struggles, the organization is more likely to go after a complement to Nathan as opposed to a replacement closer. Earlier this year, it seemed like the Tigers might try to acquire a shortstop, but rookie Eugenio Suarez has been capable. Andy Dirks’s most recent setback puts the Tigers in a position where they might want more outfield depth, but J.D. Martinez’s breakout year makes it unlikely that the team will acquire a starter.

Playing Time Risk: Nathan might not lose his job, but if a high-end reliever is acquired Nathan could lose a few save opportunities. Raj Davis has already lost playing time as a result of Martinez; bringing another outfielder in would hamper Davis’s fantasy value even more.

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Contender Status: 3 GB Orioles in AL East. 1.5 games behind Mariners for second Wild Card.
  • Top Need: Second base and/or third base
  • Secondary Needs: Starting pitching, relief help.
  • Luxury Needs: Closer, catcher, left-handed specialist.
  • Rumored Targets: Joakim Soria, Chase Headley, David Price

In Brief: The obvious holes that the Jays had a couple of weeks ago have become gaping chasms, as a combination of injuries and regression have pushed the Jays out of first place in the AL East and at risk of missing the playoffs entirely. The Jays certainly do have the chips to land a major piece, but most of the more logical rumors have floated around players like Headley, who is having a down year and likely won’t cost a mint. Price is mentioned here but even though some suggest the Rays might trade in the division, he seems like a long shot.

Playing Time Risk: The Blue Jays will likely get either a third baseman or a second baseman and add depth elsewhere. In the short-term, this would push Munenori Kawasaki to the bench, but once Brett Lawrie returns Juan Francisco is the player most likely to lose playing time. If the Jays do acquire a starting pitcher, J.A. Happ is the obvious candidate to get bumped, although if there are any plans to limit Marcus Stroman’s innings he could be moved to the bullpen down the stretch.

Seattle Mariners

  • Contender Status: 9 GB Athletics in A.L. West. 1.5 games ahead of two teams for second Wild Card.
  • Top Need: Corner outfielder and/or right-handed bat
  • Secondary Needs: First base, shortstop, or center fielder
  • Luxury Needs: Starting Pitching Depth
  • Rumored Targets: David Price, Ben Zobrist, Marlon Byrd, Josh Willingham, Dayan Viciedo, Alex Rios, Junior Lake

In Brief: It is hard to tell at times if the Mariners really are interested in Price or if this is a case of the media pushing this rumor hard because it would be such a blockbuster. One reason that Price is a consideration is because even though there is more of a need on offense, the outfield options listed above are not significant upgrades. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported on Thursday that the Mariners are focused more on Zobrist, which might make more sense than Price. Although the Mariners haven’t been linked to any non-Price starters, a smaller deadline deal for a back end piece fits here.

Playing Time Risk: Any one of the Mariners outfielders (Dustin Ackley, Endy Chavez, Michael Saunders, and James Jones) could lose playing time. Jones is the only one at this point with significant value outside of an only format. If you’re banking on Jones for steals, this is something to consider. Roenis Elias has faded since a fast start and is the most likely starter to go. I don’t even trust him in AL-only at this point.

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Contender Status: Tied for first in NL West. Tied with multiple teams for first/second wild card spots.
  • Top Need: Relief depth
  • Luxury Needs: Bench depth, an upgrade at the back end of the rotation.
  • Rumored Targets: Jonathan Papelbon, David Price, Cole Hamels

In Brief: Most of the recent rumors linking Papelbon, Price, and Hamels to the Dodgers are of the “no, we’re not interested variety.” The Dodgers public front has been that they don’t want to blow up the farm system, even for a pitcher like Hamels with plenty of cost control. There is a good possibility that the Dodgers either stand pat at the deadline or simply add a small upgrade or two for the bench and bullpen. No names have been floated, but think impending free agents who won’t get qualifying offers from their current teams.

Playing Time Risk: Dan Haren if the Dodgers acquire another starting pitcher.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Contender Status: Tied for first in NL Central, 0.5 games behind multiple teams for first/second wild card.
  • Top Need: First base, bullpen
  • Secondary Needs: Ace starting pitcher
  • Rumored Targets: None

In Brief: The Brewers are in an odd situation. They most certainly aren’t a juggernaut, but have a balanced team from top to bottom. GM Doug Melvin has stated on multiple occasions that he probably will stand pat, as he views injured relievers Tyler Thornburg and Jim Henderson as bullpen upgrades when they return. There has been some idle speculation about Milwaukee acquiring Price, but no serious reports linking the Brewers with him.

Playing Time Risk: Jimmy Nelson if the Brewers decide to acquire a starter, but the Brewers are going to give him every opportunity to keep the job. Richie Weeks has been mentioned as a possible trade target for other contenders, but the job sharing arrangement with Scooter Gennett has worked out quite well this year.

Oakland Athletics

  • Contender Status: First place in AL West, 1.5 games ahead of Angels. 11.5 games ahead of multiple teams for second wild card*.
  • Top Need: Second base
  • Secondary Needs: Shortstop, right fielder
  • Rumored Targets: None

*Would be second wild card behind Angels/Mariners if they fell behind both teams in standings.

In Brief: The Athletics made a huge impact with the Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel trade, but still use upgrades elsewhere, with second base the biggest need. As is typically the case, Billy Beane’s front office doesn’t have many leaks, so it is difficult to ascertain what players if any the A’s are exploring.

Playing Time Risk: Eric Sogard, Alberto Callaspo (when he returns from the DL), and Stephen Vogt could stand the lost the most playing time. These are all AL-only plays, and not particularly strong ones at that.

Baltimore Orioles

  • Contender Status: First place in AL East, three games ahead of Yankees/Blue Jays. 1.5 games ahead of Mariners for second wild card.
  • Top Needs: Ace starting pitcher, closer.
  • Secondary Needs: Starting pitching depth, left fielder
  • Luxury Needs: Second base, catcher
  • Rumored Targets: Jorge de la Rosa, Ian Kennedy, Koji Uehara, A.J. Burnett

In Brief: It is unclear if the Orioles are not linked to bigger starting pitcher names like David Price because they don’t want to deal significant pieces from their farm system for him or if the Rays don’t want to deal Price within the division without getting back even more than they would elsewhere. The Orioles would undoubtedly love to get an upgrade behind the plate, but available catchers are few and far between. The Orioles might not have a better opportunity than this year to make a splash in the playoffs, but it remains to be seen if they will do so.

Playing Time Risk: Whether or not Kevin Gausman is at risk depends on how the Orioles decide to handle him down the stretch. He is the most intriguing pitcher in the rotation in terms of upside. Miguel Gonzalez is probably the other arm that could get replaced if the Orioles decide to keep going with Gausman down the stretch. Jonathan Schoop and the Orioles catching combination of Caleb Joseph, Nick Hundley, and Steve Clevinger are all nothing better than AL-only, with Clevinger not even meriting consideration for that.

Washington Nationals

  • Contender Status: Tied for first in NL East. Tied for first/second wild card.
  • Secondary Needs: Bench depth, possibly an upgrade at centerfield
  • Luxury Needs: Relief depth
  • Rumored Targets: None

In Brief: Most of the Nationals rumors have centered on players that they might trade, such as Danny Espinosa, Denard Span, or Ross Detwiler. The Nationals are similar to the Brewers in that they don’t have a dominant squad but do have a deep team that doesn’t require a huge upgrade.

Playing Time Risk: The only real playing time risks are bench options like Kevin Frandsen, Scott Hairston, or Nate McLouth. There is virtually no fantasy impact, even in the deepest leagues.

Kansas City Royals

  • Contender Status: Third place in AL Central, seven games behind Tigers. 3.5 games behind Mariners for second wild card.
  • Top Need: Right field
  • Secondary Need: Third base
  • Luxury Need: Lefty reliever
  • Rumored Targets: Ian Kennedy, Marlon Byrd, Jonny Gomes

In Brief: The acquisition of Jason Frasor doesn’t necessarily mean the Royals are done acquiring relievers. Byrd has been linked to the Royals frequently, but they are on his no trade list and it seems unlikely Kansas City would assume Byrd’s 2016 option as a condition to make the trade. Gomes’ contract is more team-friendly and he might be the more realistic piece.

Playing Time Risk: If Byrd is acquired, Norichika Aoki and Raul Ibanez would lose a good amount of playing time (and Ibanez might not survive on the team). If it is Gomes, Aoki and Ibanez would both lose at bats in some kind of platoon. A third baseman is listed above as a need for the Royals, but Mike Moustakas has performed better of late and is very likely to hang on to his job.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Contender Status: Third place in NL Central, 1.5 games behind Cardinals/Brewers. Two games behind multiple teams for second wild card.
  • Top Need: Ace starting pitcher
  • Secondary Needs: Supplemental starting pitching, shortstop
  • Luxury Need: First base
  • Rumored Targets: Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Huston Street.

In Brief: The Pirates were linked to Street multiple times prior to the Angels acquisition of the reliever on Friday. You can never have enough quality relief pitching, but why the Pirates keep looking for Mark Melancon alternatives is a great mystery. Cost is very likely to be an issue with any acquisition, so while David Price would be a great get, don’t count on this happening. Most of the team’s needs probably won’t be satisfied in this market. Ike Davis didn’t solve the team’s issues at first base, but the market at first base is dry. Jordy Mercer has played better of late; acquiring someone simply for the sake of acquiring someone isn’t particularly sensible.

Playing Time Risk: Vance Worley is the most likely starting pitcher to lose his job if the Pirates do acquire an arm. As mentioned above, it seems doubtful that Mercer or Davis are truly at risk to lose playing time. Reliever rumors are worth watching. Melancon is worth counting on, but if the Pirates are looking for an upgrade, it means that he is a risk to go back into the set up role.

San Francisco Giants

  • Contender Status: Tied for first in NL West. Tied for first/second wild card.
  • Top Needs: Second base, closer.
  • Rumored Targets: David Price, Ben Zobrist, Asdrubal Cabrera, Mike Aviles, Dan Uggla, Huston Street

In Brief: Marco Scutaro is back, but the Giants are unsure if he’ll stay healthy over the day-to-day grind of the rest of the season. Zobrist would be a great get, but the affordable 2015 club option means he won’t come cheaply. Uggla will clear waivers, but while the Giants have had a good track record of revitalizing past-their-prime veterans, this signing would be a Hail Mary. As was the case with a lot of teams in on Street, his cost certainty was part of the appeal. It is extremely unlikely the Giants would grab Papelbon. The Giants are considered a dark horse in the Price “sweepstakes” but shouldn’t be ruled out completely.

Playing Time Risk: Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo are both potentially at risk depending on how the ninth inning shakes out. Scutaro obviously is a candidate to get bumped, though if you were sleeping on Joe Panik in NL-only you can forget about him if the Giants somehow land Zobrist.

Atlanta Braves

In Brief: Peavy is the first player I have crossed out in this article who hasn’t been traded. Multiple reports have indicated that the Braves are unlikely to add payroll, which is why every name on the list above is an affordable middle reliever. The team will probably stick with Tommy LaStella at second unless someone falls in the team’s lap.

Playing Time Risk: A few marginal relievers with little or any fantasy value are at risk. There are some whispers that Atlanta might cut B.J. Upton, which would give Jordan Schafer some sneaky steals value if the Braves don’t import an outfielder.

Cincinnati Reds

  • Contender Status: Fourth place in NL Central, 2.5 games behind Cardinals. Three games behind multiple teams for first/second Wild Card.
  • Top Need: Second baseman
  • Secondary needs: Outfielder, relief pitcher.
  • Rumored Targets: Ben Zobrist, Josh Willingham

In Brief: Like many teams on this list, the Reds have payroll limitations, but Brandon Phillips’ injury highlights the need for the club to grab a second baseman. Zobrist is the lone second baseman linked to the club, though someone like David Murphy (who has not been in any Reds rumors) could fit the team’s payroll as well. It is unknown whether or not the Reds would be willing to surrender premium prospects for someone like Zobrist.

Playing Time Risk: Ramon Santiago is a utility player who is currently stretched out as a starter. Chris Heisey has picked it up at the plate of late, which might minimize the Reds need to grab another outfielder like Willingham.

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Contender Status: Tied for first in NL Central. 0.5 games back multiple teams for first/second wild card.
  • Top Needs: Catcher, starting pitcher
  • Luxury Need: Left-handed reliever
  • Rumored Targets: David Price, Jose Molina, Jake Peavy

In Brief: Even before Shelby Miller’s removal from the rotation, the Cardinals already seemed like a logical target for David Price. St. Louis has a surplus of outfielders and a strong farm system. It seems extremely doubtful that the club would move Oscar Taveras though, so one wonders if a package involving Stephen Piscotty as the outfield headliner would get it done. The Cardinals might want a window to negotitate an extension with Price if he is acquired. The Yadier Molina injury creates a pretty significant hole for the Cardinals, but it sounds far more likely they would bring in a complementary player (like Jose Molina) and simply wait for Yadier to return during the stretch run.

Playing Time Risk: George Kottaras and Tony Cruz would be the guys to watch if the Cardinals get another catcher. Kottaras has slightly more fantasy upside but Cruz is the one more likely to stick. Miller might simply stay in the pen if the Cardinals get a starter, but Carlos Martinez is also at risk.

New York Yankees

  • Contender Status: Second place in AL East, three games behind Orioles. 1.5 games behind Mariners for second wild card.
  • Top needs: Starting pitching
  • Secondary needs: Even more starting pitching, outfielder, second base, third base.
  • Player Linked to In Rumors: Edwin Jackson.

In Brief: Even the normally liberal rumor mill seems to recognize that while the Yankees certainly have the payroll to fill a need, they don’t have a strong system from which to deal. Jackson probably makes sense because his contract is prohibitively expensive and the Yankees could give the Cubs salary relief, but a marginal arm like Kyle Kendrick or Kevin Correia would cost less money and couldn’t be much worse. This is a bad year for the Yankees from a trade perspective, as there isn’t an obvious player on the market who fits their needs in a salary dump and their minor league pipeline is thin.

Playing Time Risk: If the Yankees do get a starting pitcher, Shane Greene and Chase Whitley are the biggest risks to get demoted. Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson are both deep league plays that have done little this season. Keep an eye on Johnson if he does stay. His power /speed combination could reemergence even if there is only a slight boost in the second half.

Cleveland Indians

  • Contender Status: Second place in AL Central, 5.5 games behind Tigers. Two games behind Mariners for second wild card.
  • Top Needs: Starting pitching, corner outfielders(s)
  • Luxury needs: Bench depth, relief depth
  • Rumored Targets: David Price

In Brief: Price was mentioned in passing, but recent rumors seem to suggest the Indians will aim lower. The Indians were far more on the bubble a couple of weeks ago and not committing to buying or selling. The rumor mill hasn’t talked much about the Indians as a result. They could still use a starter or a corner outfielder, but this doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily make a trade to get one.

Playing Time Risk: It is uncertain which direction the Indians will go, so no risks at the moment.

Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Mike's other articles. You can contact Mike by clicking here

Related Content:  Trades,  Fantasy

10 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Hit List: M... (07/21)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Buy... (07/18)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Use... (07/23)
Next Article >>
Premium Article The Weekend Shift (07/21)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Eyewitness Accounts: July 30, 2015
Fantasy Rounders: Alligator Blood
Premium Article What You Need to Know: July 30, 2015
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Cardinals Gather Moss
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Oh, the Price You Pay
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Load Up the Station Wa...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Rangers Go HAMels

MORE FROM JULY 21, 2014
Premium Article The Weekend Shift
Premium Article Prospectus Hit List: Monday, July 21
The Week in Quotes: July 14-20, 2014
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Sunday Morning Defend...
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of July 18-20
Fantasy Article Closer Report: Week 17
Fantasy Article Interleague Report: Week 17

MORE BY MIKE GIANELLA
2014-07-25 - Flags Fly Forever Podcast: Ep. 27: Closers O...
2014-07-24 - Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: Week 17
2014-07-23 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Headley Chased
2014-07-21 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The MLB Trade Landscape, ...
2014-07-19 - Flags Fly Forever Podcast: Ep. 26: Second Ha...
2014-07-17 - Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: Week 16
2014-07-15 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: 10 Crazy Predictions Fant...
More...

MORE FANTASY FREESTYLE
2014-07-28 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: FAAB in Review: Asking th...
2014-07-24 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the...
2014-07-23 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Useful Non-Closer Relieve...
2014-07-21 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The MLB Trade Landscape, ...
2014-07-18 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Buy or Sell: Chris Davis
2014-07-17 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League F...
2014-07-15 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: 10 Crazy Predictions Fant...
More...