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July 23, 2014

Eyewitness Accounts

July 23, 2014

by Chris Mellen


Tyler Duffey

Born: 12/27/1990 (Age: 23)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 6' 3" Weight: 230
Mechanics
3/4 arm slot; a bit of crossfire to the delivery; strong body; uses size to stay on top of ball; some funk in the back-end of arm action; longer with his release; leads to some overthrow; not overly loose, but makes it work; varies pace of delivery out of the stretch; 1.31-1.52
Evaluator Chris Mellen
Report Date 07/02/2014
Affiliate New Britain Rock Cats (AA, Twins)
Dates Seen 6/27
OFP/Risk 45/Low
Realistic 40; up-and-down arm
MLB ETA 2015
Video No
Pitch Type Present Grade Future Grade Sitting Velocity Peak Velocity Report
Fastball 60 60 90-92 93 Displays average arm-side run, with downward movement; sinking action--offering on the heavy side; bears in on right-hand hitters' hands; type of fastball that is more effective in the lower tier of strike zone, but the pitcher can reach in the right situation to elevate; best served up and away from righties when doing so; solid-average command--shows ability to spot in all four quadrants of zone consistently; will get lifted from thighs and up; shows understanding of what he is doing with the pitch and how to set batters up.
Curveball 50 55 75-77 78 Tends to drop arm slot a bit when throwing; generates average snap with wrist; rolls out of hand at times due to way body opens; has trouble throwing glove side consistently; one shape to pitch; can throw for a strike with frequency; flashes solid-average look; lack of deep break limits bat missing ability; can induce weak contact and pick up strikes against good hitters.
Changeup 40 40 80-82 83 Lacked finish and quality action; floated within the strike zone; tipped pitch with slower arm speed and some telegraphing; displays drop as opposed to fade; show-me pitch.
Overall

Two pitch pitcher who I see better suited for the bullpen where stuff has a chance to play up; tick up in fastball velocity while maintaining movement can make pitch effective in short bursts in the majors; curveball has enough to keep hitters at bay in a one inning role; the mentality and knowledge of craft leads me to believe the arm can pitch in some early leverage situations; see a middle reliever--first arm out of chute when starter leaves game earlier in a jam or bridge some outs until turning over to the late inning guys.


Daniel Norris

Born: 04/25/1993 (Age: 21)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 180
Mechanics
3/4 arm slot; easy, loose delivery; not much restriction--repeatable; balanced; a bit short with arm action; fast arm; uses body to stay on top of ball; steps toward first base prior to landing; inconsistent with front foot at times; 1.39-1.52 out of stretch.
Evaluator Chris Mellen
Report Date 07/20/2014
Affiliate New Hampshire Fisher Cats (AA, Blue Jays)
Dates Seen 7/19
OFP/Risk 65/Moderate
Realistic 55; no.4 starter
MLB ETA 2015
Video No
Pitch Type Present Grade Future Grade Sitting Velocity Peak Velocity Report
Fastball 60 60 92-93 95 Displays arm-side run, with late finish; ability to throw to both sides of the plate; solid-average present command; potential to induce a lot of weak contact; excellent life in the lower tier of strike zone; capable of beating both right-handed and left-handed batters inside; can be thrown past hitters elevated selectively.
Slider 55 60 83-85 87 Short, tight break; guise between fastball as thrown from the same arm slot; loose with wrist when delivering pitch; can get around offering and spin to plate; throws for strikes; will change shape to create chase pitch or back-door to right-handed batters; bat-missing potential; displays confidence to use pitch at any point in the count; out pitch.
Curevball 45 50 72-74 75 Flashes deep, two-plane break; on the soft side--lacks power; hitters able to wait on offering to square up; inconsistent creating good snap; pitch rolls to plate more often due to wrist wrap; can drop in for a strike; don't see pitch getting many chases without increased power; presently a "show me" offering; potential to tighten up further, but don't believe pitch will be more than 3rd/4th option in arsenal.
Chanegup 45 55 83-85 86 On the firm side; looks more like a fastball pitcher is taking something off of; tends to float in middle of strike zone and lack finish; flashes feel for offering; smooth with arm-speed when delivering; needs more trust in grip to create better action; ability to turnover and bottom out; feel there is potential for pitch to take a step forward as shows characteristics to do so with more repetition and pitcher displays commitment to working on it.
Overall

Good looking stuff--feel for all four pitches; potential to be very nasty on opposing hitters; level of polish needs to take a step forward to reach potential; see some bumps in the road during next season or so while pitcher finds the identity of third offering to complement fastball and slider; competitor on mound--wants the ball; future long-term big-leaguer; high potential to stick as starter for me; believe arm can round into solid mid-rotational starter, with potential to have a season or two above that.


Henry Owens

Born: 07/21/1992 (Age: 21)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Height: 6' 6" Weight: 205
Mechanics
3/4 arm slot; loose, low energy expending delivery; lot of body to control; frame to create a lot of leverage and downward plane; soft, consistent front foot landing; body to handle the rigors of the game; works from the first base side of the rubber - creates angle on hitters; 1.39-1.52 out of stretch
Evaluator Chris Mellen
Report Date 07/20/2014
Affiliate Portland Sea Dogs (AA, Red Sox)
Dates Seen 7/19
OFP/Risk 60/Low
Realistic 55; no.4 starter
MLB ETA 2014
Video No
Pitch Type Present Grade Future Grade Sitting Velocity Peak Velocity Report
Fastball 50 55 89-91 92 Displays some downward movement, with occasional arm-side tail; lacks explosiveness, but jumps on hitters because of deception created with angle and pitch sequencing; throws for strikes; needs some improvement keeping the ball out of the middle of the plate and elevated--presently gets away with mistakes; average command; don't see high quality hitters missing as frequently; weak-contact-inducing offering; will reach for peak velocity when in a jam.
Changeup 65 70 78-79 80 Generates excellent arm-speed when delivering; seamless look to that of the fastball; big separation; will turn-over to glove side; ability to miss bats; quality, deep action; will throw at any point in the count; high confidence in pitch; plays his fastball off of pitch; does get away with mistakes up in zone at level; solid-average command; needs some cleanup to tighten spotting to corners and lower in the zone at next level and beyond; should continue to be go-to out-pitch.
Curveball 45 50 71-73 74 Deep shape when pitcher stays on top; slow break; allows hitters to wait back; likes to drop pitch in for a strike; don't see chase potential unless power improves; uses as a change of pace; reluctant to use when in trouble; can be more effective if worked into sequences more frequently.
Overall

Heavily leans on fastball and changeup; presently more of a two-pitch pitcher; flashes pitchability, with understanding of how to execute plan; highly deceptive due to long arms and angle; will often pitch backwards in sequences; fastball jumps due to changeup; do have concerns about future command profile--presently mistakes up in zone get masked; feel emergence of consistent third option would help mitigate pressure on fastball/changeup and lead to reaching full potential; see no.3/4 starter peak.


Michael Papi

Born: 09/19/1992 (Age: 21)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 190
Primary Position: LF
Secondary Position: 1B
Physical/Health
Moderate frame; lean, wiry muscle; proportionately filled out; room to put on a little more weight; average athlete--not going to wow in this department; body to handle the grind.
Evaluator Chris Mellen
Report Date 07/16/2014
Dates Seen 7/12-7/14
Affiliate Mahoning Valley Scrappers (Short Season, Indians)
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2017 Moderate 55 45; bench bat/part-time player No
Makeup

Plays with some intensity; carries himself like a seasoned professional; focused during practice sessions--looking to work; engaged in game when not actively involved.

Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 60 Shows a feel for hitting; loose hands, with a quick trigger; shorter, compact stroke that covers both sides of the plate; plus bat speed; controls the head of the bat; long in zone; barrels the ball up; relaxed in box; brings a plan to the plate; grinds through plate appearances looking for something to drive; not afraid to let one pass; can be high contact, line-to-line hitter.
Power 55 Presently not a large amount of lift and leverage in swing, but feel player can learn to muscle up due to hitting ability; shows occasional drives with arc in batting practice; project as pull-side power, with ability to plug opposite field gap; see hot zone as middle-in from top of thighs and down; 15 home run potential.
Baserunning/Speed 45 Timed 4.25-4.33 down the line digging; doesn't really have an extra gear, but accelerates reasonably well; enough speed to stretch a hit or score from second with less than two outs; not going to impact the game in this department.
Glove 50 Fringy foot speed in the field; took a couple of flat routes in right field before realizing it was too late to correct; slower with reads off the bat; drifts at times; fringe-average range; see better suited for left field; defense can reach projection with dedication--not a slam dunk to get to average; not the draw of player's game.
Arm 50 Arm came up a bit short throwing from right field; throws had accuracy, but died toward the end; arm won't be taken advantage of; likely to play up better in left field and show more effect.
Overall

Intriguing hitter--flashed natural hitting ability; bat-first player; pressure on offense to produce at high levels year in and year out to maintain status as regular; liked what I saw with the swing and ability to barrel consistently; believe bat translates against good velocity due to hands and efficiency of swing; feel some home run power will show in mid-to-late 20s; can end up as high as 2-hole hitter or hit 6th/7th in a deep lineup; .290s with 15 home run peak season potential.


Blake Swihart

Born: 04/03/1992 (Age: 22)
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 175
Primary Position: C
Secondary Position:
Physical/Health
Medium frame, with a little bit more room to fill into; lean muscle; well-defined forearms; athletic; takes care of himself; a bit small in the legs for position; needs to continue to focus on training to limit nagging injuries; demands of position will take toll on body and athleticism.
Evaluator Chris Mellen
Report Date 07/20/2014
Dates Seen 4/10, 5/8, 5/24, 5/26, 7/19
Affiliate Portland Sea Dogs (AA, Red Sox)
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2015 Low 60 55; major-league regular No
Makeup

Elite; driven to succeed; constantly working when on the field; engages with teammates well; plays the game with passion; shows ability to adjust; takes the highs with the lows--has a good perspective on the game.

Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 60 Smooth, fluid swing from both sides of the plate; loose hands, especially left-handed; shows ability to adjust hands to stay inside of the ball; goes up-the-middle and the other way with authority left-handed; needs some work improving fluidity when dropping head of the bat on the ball; can yank head of the bat and roll over; more of a pull hitter from the right-side; patient and methodical in the box; willing to work counts/take strikes; solid pitch recognition--does cave some against breaking stuff away left-handed; excellent bat control; high contact potential, with chance to hit .290s in peak.
Power 55 60 raw power--more power from right side than left side; leverage in swing right-handed; knows how to lift ball and create carry as a righty; bit more flat swing as a lefty, but showed ability to muscle up over the course of looks; bat control enables hitter to take some chances; mostly pull-side power from both sides of the plate; sweet spot for plugging opposite field gap as a lefty; 35-40 doubles potential; home park will have impact on home run totals; see 15 or so home runs annually during peak.
Baserunning/Speed 40 4.42-4.58 down the line left-handed; slower out of box, but presently accelerates well; makes the turn at first fluidly; capable of stretching a hit or taking an extra base; smart on the bases--always see being a heady runner; will lose some speed into late 20s; will be area of game with least impact.
Glove 55 Firm glove when receiving; quick feet; fires quickly; above-average range behind the dish; excellent reflexes - reacts well to changes in the ball; works to smother pitches in the dirt; inconsistent staying down at times however; will get big and front the ball; next step to reach defensive potential is to further polish ball control skills; leader out on the field; handles rhythm of the game well; learning the finer points of the position--so far has shown to be up to the transition.
Arm 65 Plus-to-better arm strength; 1.86-1.97 pop times to 2B on stolen base attempts; can be a little slow with release; pounces out of crouch with very quick feet; above-average accuracy; throws on a line and down into runner for the tag; with continued work smoothing out release has potential to highly impact an opponent's running game.
Overall

Definition of a baseball player; does a bit of everything well; high chance to maximize every ounce of talent due to makeup; see a first-division regular here; can hit as high as the two-hole in a deep lineup; type of bat control and contact ability to approach .300 in the majors; see .280-.295, with 35-40 doubles and 15-17 home runs as peak season potential; add in defense at a premium position, and this is a core contributor on a contender.


Dalton Pompey

Born: 12/11/1992 (Age: 21)
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 170
Primary Position: CF
Secondary Position: LF
Physical/Health
Athletic; proportionate frame; room to fill out more; wiry muscle; should grow into more strength; agile and smooth with actions; body to withstand rigors of the grind with continued physically maturity.
Evaluator Chris Mellen
Report Date 07/20/2014
Dates Seen 6/27 (Doubleheader), 7/19
Affiliate New Hampshire Fisher Cats (AA, Blue Jays)
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2016 Moderate 55 45; fourth outfielder No
Makeup

Brings energy to the field; focused on the task at hand; needs to learn to manage the ups and downs--a bit overemotional when a call or play isn't to his liking; need a read on ability to adjust.

Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 50 Solid-average bat speed right-handed; plus bat speed left-handed; quick hands; a bit of length to the swing due to early extension; inconsistent pulling hands inside of ball--swing can look stiff and choppy; more of a defensive hitter right-handed; tries to work count; presently on the indecisive side attacking the ball--looking to be too fine; see settling into an approach as experience in upper levels builds; line drive stroke; swing to use the whole field; questions on the consistency of hard contact produce against high quality arms over the long-term.
Power 45 Strength to tap into; leverage in stroke left-handed; can turn on the ball; pull-side power from both sides of the plate; gap hitter when going the other way; not a big lift guy; see power being more occasional over-the-fence pop--8-10 home runs; chance to hit for fair share of doubles and a handful of triples.
Baserunning/Speed 60 4.18-4.22 down line; shows extra gear on the bases and in the field; working to improve reading of pitchers--very engaged when reaching base; see 20 stolen base potential; wheels to stretch hits in front of outfielders and push extra bases in the gaps; asset on the bases.
Glove 60 Excellent closing speed; long strides; hunts down balls into the gaps; sees the ball of the bat well; good outfield fundamentals; limits drifting; gets body in position to throw; charges and cuts ball off well; chops to stick in center over the long-run; ability to play all three outfield positions; defense best present aspect of game in terms of polish.
Arm 50 Longer throwing motion; average accuracy; throws lose some steam at the tail end; not afraid to throw; can possibly squeeze out a little more strength.
Overall

Excellent athlete; overall game is still on the raw side; type of player who can take a big step forward as experience against quality competition builds; swing left me a little flat in this look; have some questions as to whether ability to adjust swing is there; strong defensive skills--can add value to roster if bat falls short; potential to hold down a regular job if everything comes together, but see this player as a fourth outfielder over the long run.


Chris Mellen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Chris's other articles. You can contact Chris by clicking here

Related Content:  Prospects,  Scouting,  Minor Leagues,  New York Mets

4 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Kyle Matte

I'm thinking the July 19th New Hampshire/Portland game was a scout haven.

Jul 23, 2014 05:49 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Chris Mellen
BP staff

It was. Lot of talent on display in the series, and that night's pitching matchup couldn't have lined up better to get two good fresh reports on the two.

Jul 23, 2014 07:49 AM
 
Ace Black

Rock Cats = AA

Jul 23, 2014 12:50 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Sam Miller
BP staff

Thanks, fixed

Jul 23, 2014 13:14 PM
 
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