Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game 7 Preview

Damn it feels good to be a gangster.

San Francisco Giants (Tim Hudson et al) at Kansas City Royals (Jeremy Guthrie et al) 8:07 p.m. Eastern
PECOTA odds of winning: 59% Giants, 41% Royals

Projected Starting Lineups

Injuries/Availability: At this point, we can assume everybody is available except for… let's see, Yordano Ventura, Jake Peavy, Jean Machi. Ned Yost might have an inning in him. Bruce Bochy is available as an emergency catcher. Jake Peavy is available–forget what I said a minute ago. If this game goes long, it has the potential for b-a-n-a-n-a-s. The only potential injury at play is Tim Lincecum's back, which hasn't been known to be a limiting factor, but one never knows once he's on the mound. (It's a decent bet he'll be on the mound.)

Outlook: There's some PECOTA odds up there, and maybe they're right, or maybe they're just slightly too blunt for the job, but it doesn't really matter. The season will come down to a game that is, basically, a coin flip, and we will all start looking at the clock from about 8:45 a.m. through the end of the day, waiting for the first pitch that will seem like the biggest first pitch of the season (because it is). It's somewhat ironic (maybe?) that we get to the most important first pitch of the season and it's going to be thrown by Jeremy Guthrie, a lousy starting pitcher, maybe the 120th best in the majors; and he will be matched up against Tim Hudson, a… well, he's probably below average at this point, maybe the 70th or 80th best in baseball. Such is October: For all the extra spaces it puts in between its games, allowing managers to lean ever more heavily on their two or three best starters and two or three best relievers, it inevitably wears down those very same rosters, and now we walk into Game Seven with a weird mixture of All Hands On Deck and Everybody's Kind Of Beat Down To Exhaustion. Regardless, Guthrie and Hudson will not be the final pitchers on the hill, and even if they pitch well, they're unlikely to walk off the mound in the sixth. Madison Bumgarner will pitch (if it's close). James Shields might pitch (if it's close). A LOOGY will appear in the fourth or fifth (if it's close) and Greg Holland could even pitch more than three outs (if it's close), though that's the least likely.

It's best to have your narrative ready to go before the first pitch, or else it's going to be too draining for you to start shifting mid-game. So pick a side: The Giants don't lose elimination games under Bruce Bochy, or the Royals are a team of destiny, America's favorites, 1985, too fast to fail. Truth is, neither team is flawless, as we've seen: The Royals have mediocre starting pitching (JEREMY ******* GUTHRIE IS STARTING THIS GAME!) and the Giants have a nasty habit of getting shut down by mediocre slop throwers (Jeremy ******* Guthrie, anyone?). These are flawed teams. Travis Ishikawa will start this game. The Royals' no. 2 hitter will be subbed out in the sixth inning because he's not good enough to play a full game. At the end of it, one of them will be the world champion, after a dominant run through October. The other will not be the world champion, despite a dominant run through October. These are not the two best teams in baseball. They gave us two extraordinary October performances. One deserves to win the World Series, and it will, tonight.

The other does, too, and it won't.

Eight oh seven eastern, and damned if I can wait that long.