Some Projection Left: Top Hit Tools

The importance of the hit tool is likely obvious, but it bears repeating as we get closer to the prospecting season. Even the strongest of power hitters and the best defenders at premium positions likely don’t get penciled into the everyday lineup with an average hit tool, and the art of projecting said tool isn’t so simple.

“It’s very important, and it’s a lot harder to project than you might expect,” an AL East scout said. “You’d think there wouldn’t be much subjectivity, but there is. You really have to make an educated guess as to whether or not plate discipline will carry over, or whether or not their ability to recognize pitches will improve. There’s the obvious stuff like swing path and bat speed, but you’re doing a lot more guessing than you would like, and scouts don’t like guessing.”

And while there are never any locks as to who will hit for average, there are a select few players that have all the prerequisites to do so. Here’s a look at the top 10 hit tools in minor-league baseball, and why they have a chance to hit for average upon promotion to the big-league level.

1. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

Potential hit grade: 70

It would be fair to categorize Buxton’s 2014 season as a disappointing one, as he played in only 31 regular season games and then dislocated his finger early in the Arizona Fall League. That being said, there were still plenty of flashes of brilliance in his limited action, enough to believe he still has one of the few plus-plus hit tools in all of baseball.

Buxton has some of the strongest wrists you’ll see, and they not only help him get through the zone quickly but allow him to control the barrel to shoot line drives to every part of the field. There’s some swing and miss here, but he has advanced pitch-recognition skills, and he rarely ends at-bats by swinging at pitches outside of the zone. Add in 80 grade speed that will help him beat out more than his fair share of groundballs, and Buxton has the type of hit tool that can win a batting title in time.

ETA: Late 2015

2. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds

Potential hit grade: 65

After posting .317/.426/.580 line at High-A Bakersfield, Winker earned a promotion to Double-A Pensacola and struggled in a limited sample size, posting a .677 OPS over 92 plate appearances before a wrist injury forced him to miss the last two months. Keep in mind that the 2012 compensation-round selection was one of the youngest hitters in the league, so those struggles don’t tell the story of just how impressive his 2014 season was.

Winker controls the zone well for a hitter of any age—much less a player who was in high school just three years ago—thanks in large part to excellent hand-eye coordination that allows him to foul off even the toughest of pitches. The swing has little wasted movement and stays through the zone, and his natural strength and plane allows him to let the ball travel deep so that he can make hard contact to the opposite field. He doesn’t have the same type of speed as Buxton, but with his ability to get on base and make hard contact everywhere, he doesn’t need it.

ETA: 2016

3. Corey Seager, SS/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers

Seager was a highly touted prospect coming out of the 2012 draft, but to say he’s taken significant strides forward over the past three years is an understatement. Like Carlos Correa and Winker, he dominated the Cal League to the tune of a .352 average and a 1.004 OPS. He was just as good in his time in Double-A Chattanooga, where he hit .345 in nearly 150 at bats.

The brother of Mariners All-Star third baseman Kyle, Seager’s swing isn’t picturesque, but his hand-eye coordination is, and his quick-twitch wrists allow him to let the ball travel deep into the zone. He’s long-limbed, which allows him to get extension and drive the ball as well as any prospect into the opposite field gaps. He’s also an assertive—not overly aggressive—hitter; and while he’ll never lead the league in walks, he will take pitches outside of the zone and make pitchers work to beat him.

No scout I’ve spoken with believes Seager will stay at shortstop, but it doesn’t matter where he plays, Seager is going to hit and justify being placed at the top or in the middle of the Dodger lineup, and soon.

ETA: Late 2015

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros

Potential hit grade: 65

Correa was the youngest everyday player in the California League, and still put up monster numbers before a leg injury forced him to miss the last three months of the season. Those 62 games he played were more than enough to show why more than one scout I spoke with believes that it is Correa who has the best potential hit tool in baseball.

At the plate, Correa has a short stroke that is quick to the ball, and because there’s no wasted movement in the swing, he controls the zone exceedingly well. His pitch recognition skills improve every year, as does his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field. Even if he’s forced to move off of shortstop—which is looking less and less likely—Correa is an offensive force, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was a consistent .300 hitter at the big-league level.

ETA: 2016

5. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Potential hit grade: 65

A hamstring injury forced Meadows to miss essentially the first half of the 2014 campaign. He didn’t show any rust when he got healthy though, hitting .322 for Low-A West Virginia and showing the same impressive hit tool that made him such a highly touted prospect coming out of the 2013 draft.

Meadows approach at the plate is often described as “quiet,” as the left-handed hitter looks for pitches to drive from a swing that doesn’t have a ton to it, but stays in the zone with excellent balance and plane. He has no qualms with going the other way, and he’s as good as any teenager I’ve seen at being selective with not only pitches out of the zone, but with recognizing what pitches he can make hard contact with. There’s some work to be done, but if there’s one hitter at the lower levels I trust to hit for average, it’s Meadows.

ETA: 2017

6. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs

Potential hit grade: 60

Russell was acquired along with Billy McKinney—who just missed making this list—and Dan Straily for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, and with all due respect to Samardzija and Hammel, it was quite the coup. The 2012 first-round pick had no trouble adjusting to Double-A pitching, hitting .294/.332/.536 in his 50 games with the Tennessee Smokies.

Russell has the best hands of any prospect in baseball, and they help him not only at shortstop but with the bat. Those hands allow him to square everything up, and he can make hard, loud contact with pitches anywhere in the zone.

The only reason Russell ranks this “low” on the list is because there’s length to the swing, and he can get a little too aggressive at the plate. There’s not much swing and miss though, and there’s plenty of reason to believe he’s going to hit for average at the big-league level.

ETA: 2015

7. Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Potential hit grade: 60

Pompey’s stock soared as much as any prospect last year, hitting .317 at three different stops before holding his own upon a promotion to Toronto.

There isn’t much to Pompey’s swing, as the switch-hitting outfielder takes a direct path to the baseball from both sides of the plate with impressive balance and plane. Scouts rave about his pitch-recognition skills, and while he won’t remind anyone of Rickey Henderson, he’ll make pitchers work and draw walks. He also possesses plus speed, and he can drop down a bunt from both sides of the plate to keep the infield honest.

He doesn’t have the upside of the players listed above, but Pompey does have an advanced hit tool, and he should be hitting at the top of the Blue Jays lineup for most of 2015.

ETA: Already debuted.

8. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland

Potential hit grade: 60

Lindor didn’t put up spectacular numbers in 2014, hitting .276 and posting a .727 OPS in stops at Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus. He also was one of the youngest players in both leagues, so those numbers tend to skew the story of Lindor’s talent.

Scouts rave about Lindor’s approach, and if you get a chance to watch him play, it’s easy to understand why. He has an excellent eye and rarely swings at pitches outside of the zone, and his short, simple stroke from both sides of the plate is conducive to hitting line drives to all parts of the field. Last year he showed more swing and miss than he had the previous two years in the Cleveland system, though that can be somewhat attributed to the level adjustment. Even still, Lindor should be a top of the order hitter, and I’m confident he’ll post high averages and on-base totals.

ETA: 2015

9. Alex Jackson, OF, Seattle Mariners

Potential hit grade: 60

The Mariners coveted Jackson all spring, and had to have been thrilled when he fell to them with the sixth pick of the draft. He did nothing to quell that enthusiasm in his time, posting an .820 OPS and a .280 average in the Arizona League last summer.

Jackson had one of my favorite swings in the 2014 class, getting excellent extension that allows him to make hard contact to right field, and with enough bat speed and plane to pull balls on the inner/middle-half. Pitch recognition isn’t a strength yet, but he’s a smart hitter who won’t beat himself, and there’s reason to believe they will be by the time he’s ready to contribute at the big-league level. There’s some volatility here, but the talent is too great for Jackson to not qualify for this list.

ETA: 2017

10. Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Potential hit grade: 60

The Pirates gave Bell the largest bonus of any second-round pick in history in 2011, and after losing almost all of 2012 to a knee injury, we’re starting to see why Pittsburgh was so high on him.

Bell’s swing from the left side is better than the right, but he’s competent from both with a smooth, line-drive stroke that sprays the ball to all parts of the field. He also controls the barrel extremely well, and he has very little swing-and-miss because of his elite hand-eye coordination.

There are questions about where Bell plays, but there aren’t many about whether or not Bell can hit, and he should be the rare guy who hits for average and power at the big-league level.

ETA: 2016

Also considered: Stephen Piscotty, OF, St. Louis Cardinals; Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox; Jose Peraza, 2B/SS, Atlanta Braves; Dominic Smith, OF, New York Mets