Raising Aces: Let the Good Times Ross

Today we tackle the debuts of two young pitchers, one of whom pitched his first big-league game last Tuesday, the other of whom is overdue for a mechanical report because he made a trio of starts in June and was recently recalled to retake a big-league mound. Both of these pitchers hail from the NL East, where they could be facing off for the next several years.

Aaron Nola
Prior to the season, Nola ranked as the no. 2 prospect in a top-heavy Philly system, and he recently checked in as the seventh-best prospect in the game when we did our midseason Top 50. Franchise cornerstone Cole Hamels is expected to be dealt in the next week, but based on Nola's debut the Philly faithful might be tempted to anoint him as the heir apparent.

Game Stats

Nola sure evoked Hamels in his debut, sitting 91–93 mph with his fastball, showing off plus command and utilizing his secondary pitches efficiently. He faced a below-average Tampa Bay offense in his first go-around, softening the shock value of ascending to the highest level, and the cushion was further padded by Nola taking the mound in front of the home crowd at Citizens Bank Park.

The fastball was most impressive due to its movement, as everything he threw had a wrinkle in it. Nola mixed in a curve and a change, each with close to 20 percent frequency, and he went to all three of his pitches against batters on both sides of the plate while showing a preference for the typical pattern of breakers to same-side bats and off-speed stuff to right-handed hitters. The most impressive part of his outing was command, as Nola was generally hitting targets with the heat and burying his secondaries under the strike zone.

The stuff was there to justify the numbers Nola posted in his big-league debut, and he exhibited a profile that could find rapid success in the majors. Command is the key, and optimism is fueled by the fact that pitchers are naturally amped for their first MLB game and tend to sacrifice a bit of command to the gods of adrenaline; Nola avoided such pitfalls.

Mechanics Report Card

The mechanical ingredients for outstanding command are (in order) repetition of timing, balance, and posture. Nola scores well in all three categories. His balance is already plus and flashes higher, with a modest drop to his center of gravity, near-perfect head position in the Z plane (rubber to home plate), and a slight lean during his stride being all that stand between the right-hander and a future 70 grade for stability.

At first glance it appears that Nola strides closed, but late hip rotation puts him into foot plant at a point that is closer to the center line, and he continues to rotate his lower half after foot strike. He also invokes some upper-body twist that combines with his delayed trigger to produce plus marks for hip-shoulder separation. The torque has improved since he was drafted in 2014, thanks to a combination of an extra load with the upper half and a sturdier delay of trunk rotation after foot strike.

The momentum grades out above his sheer speed down the mound, as Nola carves an efficient path of kinetic energy from first movement through release point; this is another area of improvement since he was drafted, with a stronger initial burst that gets him moving directly toward the target. The kinetic efficiency of his momentum can also be seen by noticing where Nola's body goes after release point, as he continues to move forward on a path toward the target during follow-through.

The mechanical package is very strong, void of any weaknesses, with a generous blend of power and stability that is rare in a developing player. He already possesses the second-best delivery in the Philly rotation, and a trade of Hamels would vault Nola to the head of the class.

Joe Ross
Another first rounder, Ross was chosen by the Padres with the 25th overall pick of the 2011 draft, perhaps getting a boost thanks to bloodlines (brother Tyson was then with the A's, and is now a Padre), yet justifying the selection on his merits alone. Ross was on the verge of joining his brother in the San Diego rotation, but he was traded in A.J. Preller's flurry of offseason movement, landing in the Nationals' organization, where the big-league club was saturated with elite-level pitching.

Season Stats

Injuries to Stephen Strasburg opened up a spot in the Nats' rotation, and Ross has pitched so well that you'd be forgiven for thinking those were Strasburg's numbers (never mind that he's having a disaster campaign). Ross has a ludicrous strikeout-to-walk ratio of 27:2 in his first four starts, utilizing a repertoire that is remarkably similar to his brother's.

The fastball clocks in at 94 mph on average, just a shade below Tyson's radar gun, and he offsets the fastball with a wipeout slider that he throws early (36 percent of first pitches to right-handed batters) and often (33 percent overall). Ross has mixed in a changeup with 10 percent frequency in his first four starts, but el cambio is clearly his lowest-grade pitch.

Time will tell if Ross inherited the same vulnerability toward basestealers that plagues his brother, but the similarities among siblings go beyond stuff and extend to their pitching mechanics.

Mechanics Report Card

The balance suffers from a quick drop after max leg lift paired with a back-side collapse, such that his head trails behind his center of mass during the stride phase of his delivery. The head misalignment isn't severe, and his stability is better than average, finishing with very strong posture at release point. There are times where he stays so upright that it appears stiff, but his brother has received the same criticism (at least from this evaluator), and Ross' posture has peaked at a 65 grade at the highest level.

Ross starts very slowly with his delivery, comes out of leg lift with a touch of momentum, and then accelerates through the stride phase and into foot strike. There's plenty of room to improve this aspect of his motion, but he is already ahead of where Tyson was at the same age; of course, Tyson used to have one of the slowest deliveries and shortest strides that I have ever seen from a professional pitcher. My apologies for continuing to compare Tyson and Joe, but the similarity of technique between the two pitchers speaks volumes about their development.

Ross' torque falls short of what we would expect given the right-hander's velocity, with a timing-based approach to rotation and minimal upper-body load. Ross has a relatively short stride, an element that is more obvious from the stretch due to a shrunken leg lift, but his lack of forward progress during the lift portion of his windup puts him in a similar position regardless.

When pitching from the stretch, Ross' speed to the plate is very close to that of his windup pace just before foot strike, as if he has cut off the lift portion of his motion and skipped right to the second gear of the delivery. The similarities in speed and positioning make it easier for Ross to repeat his release point and find consistency when pitching from either the windup or the stretch.