Platoons
Target: LHB's Preston Tucker OF ($3600, +381 OPS and +.241 ISO vs. RHP), Jason Castro C ($3200, +186 OPS and +.073 ISO vs. RHP), Colby Rasmus OF ($4000, +131 OPS and +.061 ISO vs. RHP) and Luis Valbuena 2B/3B ($3800, +30 OPS and +.019 ISO career vs. RHP), against RHP Colby Lewis ($7700, +95 OPS and +.006 ISO vs. LHB)
Rasmus is a good stacking option for batters from either side of the plate given his approximately 180 ISO against both lefties and righties, but left-handed bats enjoy an extra dose of hits and walks against the Texas right-hander. Sample size caveats abound, but the rookie Tucker has been hopeless against southpaws this season with a mere 443 OPS in 67 plate appearances, counterbalanced by a robust 924 OPS when he has the platoon advantage. All 10 of Tucker's homeruns and 24 of his 26 extra-base hits have come against right-handed pitchers this year. Castro has some power though his contact and on-base skills leave much to be desired, so the only excuse to play the backstop in DFS is when the platoon swings in his favor. Rasmus has been guarded against southpaws throughout his career as only 26.5 percent of his plate appearances have come against left-handers, and the OPS split reveals the method to such madness, but he's a solid play when an opposing righty is on the mound. Valbuena has very modest splits over the long haul, but the 29-year old is in the midst of the most powerful season of his career, and his platoon split climbs to a +119 OPS and +.071 ISO with 15 of his 19 homers this year against southpaws.
Avoid: LHB Chris Coghlan OF ($2900, -134 OPS and -.061 ISO career vs. LHP) and RHB Jorge Soler OF ($3000, -57 OPS and -.097 ISO vs. LHP) against LHP Francisco Liriano ($10800, -131 OPS and -.069 ISO career vs. LHB)
Coghlan played in the team's first 86 ballgames but might find himself on the bench to start this evening, as the Cubs have been sitting him against left-handers. Soler has had a reverse platoon split during his brief career, and though his OBP jumps against southpaws due to a walk rate that nearly doubles, his trademark power has been missing when faced with a southpaw. Combined with his recent doldrums at the plate, Soler should be an easy player to avoid even with the friendly price tag. Some might be tempted to fade left-handed hitter Anthony Rizzo and his career OPS split of -83 points when facing southpaws, but much of the line is an artifact of his early-career learning curve as he has fixed that same-side vulnerability over the past couple of seasons; he has a large reverse split this season that includes a tremendous .330/.458/.511 line against southpaws in 118 plate appearances.
|
Join Doug in playing Baseball Prospectus Beat the Expert League on Draft Kings – click here for tournament lobby. Details ($3 Entry):
|
Steals
Target: Starling Marte OF ($4000, 20-of-28 SB this season) and Gregory Polanco OF ($3000, 18-of-25 SB) against LHP Jon Lester ($10400, opponents 30-of-36 SB this season)
Lester's struggles with opposing baserunners is reaching legendary status, with an increasing trend to steal attempts as managers and players grow more confident on the basepaths with Lester on the mound. Marte is a power play even without considering the steals, as his career OPS is 189 points higher against southpaws than right-handed pitchers. As mentioned last week, Polanco has not been very active on the basepaths over the past month and a half, and the fact that he rarely takes off versus southpaws is another knock against him (just one of his 26 attempts this year is against a lefty), but Lester opens up a nice opportunity for Polanco to test out his wheels. Andrew McCutchen ($4200) has been noticeable quiet on the bases this season, going just 5-of-7 on steal attempts after six consecutive seasons of swiping 18 or more bags, but he may decide to take advantage of the situation to pad those totals for 2015 after not attempting thievery since late June.
Recency Bias
Avoid: Adam LaRoche 1B ($2700) facing RHP Nate Karns ($7500)
Last 28 games (24 starts): .172/.220/.204
LaRoche has seemingly defied Father Time for the past few seasons, with an 804 OPS from 2012 through 2014 (his age 32-through-34 campaigns), but his production has cratered after cashing in this off-season for two years and $25 million. His line on the season is just .218/.310/.348 with nine homeruns, and the triple-slash line has continued to get slashed as the season has progressed. His past 100 plate appearances have resulted in the above stats, with 30 strikeouts and just four walks for a player with a career walk rate of 10.3 percent (which has easily cleared 10 percent in each of the past four seasons). Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.
Matchups
Target: LHB Ichiro Suzuki OF ($2000) versus RHP Bartolo Colon ($6000)
Head-to-head: .317/.324/.452 in 104 PA
Both of these players are creeping into their 40's and the above stats were largely compiled during their more youthful days in the American League, but it is rare to find such a massive sample size when looking at head-to-head matchups let alone for one side to have dominated to this extent, though for Ichiro's career such numbers are par for the course. The 104 plate appearances are the most that Colon has against any other batter (and the second-most plate appearances for Suzuki against any pitcher), and though Ichiro is a shell of his former self whose days of batting .300 on a regular basis are behind him, there's a good chance that he'll be batting leadoff tonight against his long-time nemesis making his bargain basement price tag even more appealing.
Price
Target: Carlos Santana 1B/3B ($3400) versus RHP Garrett Richards ($9800)
The switch-hitting Santana is a touch better for his career when batting right-handed, so he takes a slight hit against right-handers like Richards, but like a good switch-hitter Santana has minimal splits and is effective against pitchers from both sides. He has also flipped the script this season, with and 802 OPS against right-handed pitchers in 2015 but a mere 640 OPS versus southpaws. The former backstop is in the midst of his worst season in majors, batting just .225/.354/.392, but he has shown signs of life with a .286/.390/.529 line over his last 20 games. The price is just too low for a hitter of Santana's caliber, especially when considering that he has snapped out of the offensive funk that consumed him during the first half of the season.
***
Resources used for this article:
Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards
Draft Kings player prices
Thank you for reading
This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.
Subscribe now