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BP Wrigleyville: The Road They’ve Traveled: George Plimpton, DRA Run Values, and the Cubs Rotation

August 25, 2015

With the debut of DRA Run Values coming last Friday—and a detailed explanation coming on Wednesday—BP Wrigleyville's Rian Watt takes a look at how the Cubs rotation stacks up with regards to these components. It's a staff that helped keep the Cubs in contention in the first half as they waited for a young offense to come around and start producing on a consistent basis. Just how good do the advanced stats think the staff has been? Go to BP Wrigleyville and read Rian's piece here.

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Rian Watt

 

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jmoultz
8/25
Perhaps this might be oversimplifying it but would it be fair to say that Arrieta's current, adjusted ERA should actually be calculated with 15.73 less runs in his ledger?
Reply to jmoultz
rianwatt
8/25
In a word, yes. The 'Value' metric listed is best understood as the pitcher's total contribution to his team, above the average and in terms of runs, *after* all the component adjustments, but *before* the runs are converted to an ERA scale.

So you can read the 15.73 as saying that Arrieta has been 15.73 runs better than his peers, even after context is removed. Another way of thinking about it: it's measuring the same thing as WARP, just in terms of runs, rather than wins. Hope that's helpful!
Reply to rianwatt
rianwatt
8/25
Should be "In a word, no." Always love stupid typos that totally change the meaning of the comment. Thanks for reading!
Reply to rianwatt