It was a quiet offseason where American League starting shortstops were concerned, but the landscape at the position was altered significantly by the midseason promotion of Carlos Correa by the Astros and the trade-deadline acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki by the Blue Jays. These moves gave the AL an immediate boost at shortstop, and more top talent at the position than it has seen in years. The AL continues to offer more speed at the position than power when contrasted with the National League. This year’s AL player pool features six shortstops (played 50 percent or more games at the position) who hit 10 or more home runs in 2015, as opposed to nine shortstops who stole 10 bases or more. However, where the AL once seemed to have a cadre of shortstops who stole 15 bases or more, only Elvis Andrus (24) and Alcides Escobar (15) turned the trick in 2015. With Erick Aybar and Alexei Ramirez both moving to the NL in the offseason, the paradigm in the AL isn’t quite as speed-oriented as it once was.
Twelve months ago, Correa was a 20-year-old prospect whose highest level of professional experience was 293 plate appearances in High-A ball. A year later, Correa is one of the top players in real and fantasy baseball after an eye popping campaign that saw him hit 32 home runs, steal 32 bases, and hit .299 across two minor-league levels and 99 major-league games. Correa earned $22 in those 99 games, good for second-best among AL-only shortstops and 29th overall among AL hitters. It will be tempting to extrapolate those stats and earnings across a full season and assume that Correa will earn $37 this year, but some regression to the mean should likely be built into Correa’s projection. My guess is that Correa will cost at least $35 in AL-only leagues. While he feasibly could earn this, paying this close to Correa’s ceiling without building any safety into his bid limit is a risky play. The power is the biggest question, as Correa’s minor-league track record and robust groundball rate do not speak to a 30-35 home-run hitter. The talent, however, is above reproach.
After nearly a year-and-a-half of trade rumors, the Rockies finally pulled the trigger and moved Tulowitzki, trading him to the Rockies in a shortstop swap for Jose Reyes. Tulo had a strange season by his standards in that he managed to stay on the field for most of the season but had one of the least-productive seasons of his career. Tulowitzki earned $19 in 2015, and while he has always been viewed as an elite option, he hasn’t cracked $30 in NL-only since 2011 ($32). In OBP leagues, Tulo was a little bit worse, earning $18. This is a divergence from prior seasons, when Tulo earned $3 more in 2014 and $2 more in 2013 in OBP formats than he did in standard 5×5 formats. There is little if anything in Tulowitzki’s batted ball profile to indicate a trend, so while it is entirely possible that a bounce-back season is in the offing, the time to pay Tulo for his peak is long gone.
He isn’t nearly getting as much fantasy love as Correa, but the best AL shortstop in 2015 was Xander Bogaerts. After an underwhelming rookie campaign in 2014, Bogaerts exploded last year, earning $28 and finishing 13th overall among AL hitters. A concern for Bogaerts buyers is his .372 BABIP. Nine dollars of Bogaerts’ 2015 earnings came from his .320 batting average, and any slippage there could knock Bogaerts down in fantasy. At the age of 23, there is a lot of room for growth in power, and an uptick in home runs or steals could offset any batting average losses significantly. However, last year’s extreme groundball profile does not speak to a home-run spike, so be wary of overpaying based solely upon long-term potential.
Both Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien were solid fantasy options in AL-only. Both took different paths to the majors in 2015. Semien cost an average of $15 in expert auctions last year, with a hot spring pushing his price up in auctions closer to Opening Day. Semien managed to make a small profit on his investment, as his 15 home runs and 11 steals helped propel him to a $16 season. Lindor started the year in the minors but still managed to swat 12 home runs and steal 12 bases on his way to a $21 season in 390 at-bats. Lindor’s speed was never in doubt, but some wonder if his power will carry over going forward. He is going to cost $23-25 in redraft leagues, and that price assumes a repeat of 2015 over the course of a full season.
Elvis Andrus is viewed as a disappointment in reality, but in fantasy speed plays. The Rangers shortstop has earned a combined $69 since 2013. While it is unlikely he will ever be the all-around superstar some believed he might become when he broke into the majors in 2009 at the tender age of 20, Andrus is a near lock to earn $20 in AL-only and steal 20-25 bases. A potential red flag for Andrus was a spike in his fly ball rate. This did result in a slight uptick in home runs, but Andrus’ BABIP dropped as a result. For a player whose game revolves around speed, this doesn’t help his fantasy stock. After six seasons and nearly 900 games with the Chicago Cubs, Starlin Castro finds himself with a new organization after a trade to the Yankees. Once considered a potential fantasy stud, Castro hasn’t stolen more than nine bases since 2012 and has never hit more than 14 home runs. Yankee Stadium could help, but as we have seen with other NL imports this is far from automatic.
Speaking of fresh starts, Brad Miller gets an opportunity in Tampa after two and half years as a disappointment in Seattle relative to expectations. Miller was one of only five AL shortstops to steal 10 or more bases and hit 10 or more home runs last year. The steals were a welcome addition to his game, pushing Miller to $15 and his best year in fantasy by far. Despite Miller’s relative youth, expectations should still be tempered; this is likely about as good as it gets, and while the move from Safeco to the Trop helps Miller somewhat as a left-handed batter, he is too much of a groundball hitter to see a big boost. Ketel Marte, Miller’s replacement for the Mariners, profiled as a glove-first shortstop in the minors before coming through with a relatively solid season for Seattle after a mid-year call up. Marte certainly holds promise, but his ADP is rather high for a player with a career. 700 OPS in the minors. Alcides Escobar is the poor man’s version of Andrus in fantasy, although a combined $54 in AL-only earnings over a three-year period is certainly solid. The Royals illogical attachment to Escobar in the leadoff spot helps his fantasy value, as does Escobar’s penchant for staying healthy and on the field.
If you do play in an OBP league, most of the value at shortstop moves in the wrong direction. Miller is the biggest gainer in OBP leagues, picking up a whopping 78 cents. He is the only shortstop still in the AL to who gained 50 cents or more last year. There were plenty of big losers in OBP at shortstop. Shortstops who lost three dollars or more were Bogaerts (-$4), Castro (-$4), Escobar (-$4), and J.J. Hardy (-$3). There are so many losses at shortstop in OBP leagues that position scarcity matters even more in AL-only. You may want to add some money to a player like Tulo, who has been historically good in the category, when adjusting your bids for OBP leagues.
In addition to the players profiled above, below you will find some shortstops who are likely to be owned primarily in AL-only formats based on current NFBC ADP. Valuations in this article from the 2015 season can be found here.
Andrelton Simmons, Angels ($11)
Two years ago, Simmons teased many a fantasy player by swatting 17 home runs and giving hope that he could be a viable force on offense. This power turned out to be an illusion, as Simmons’ groundball rate has jumped in the last two years and he has hit a grand total of 11 home runs in 1,179 plate appearances. Simmons’ problem isn’t so much with his bat as it is with the overemphasis in fantasy on the almighty stolen base. Simmons finished 18th among 30 shortstops in TAv (minimum 375 plate appearances) in 2015. Compare this to Ramirez, Escobar, and Jean Segura, who finished 26th, 28th, and 29th, respectively. The mythology that Simmons is a poor hitter in real life is fueled somewhat by the overemphasis of the stolen base in fantasy. All of that being said, you can’t pay Simmons for his TAv or his glove in Roto, so unless you see some kind of unlikely growth coming with the bat, it is better to pay Simmons $5-6 and hope that his batting-average gains from last year stick.
Eduardo Escobar, Twins ($12)
Escobar is the kind of player we all want to cast as a fluke, knock his price down as low as possible, and cluck our tongues at in unison when it turns out we are right. Here is the funny thing: It is entirely possible that the gains Escobar made in 2015 were legitimate. He improved his contact profile across the bottom of the strike zone, increased his power against offspeed pitches in the second half, and may have a chance of sticking as a viable regular, particularly at shortstop. Build in a discount for Escobar based on the fluke factor but don’t forget about him entirely at your auction.
Didi Gregorius, Yankees ($14)
The raw numbers make it appear that Gregorius improved significantly in 2015. He jumped from earning five dollars in 2014 to $14 in 2015. Unfortunately, his TAv tells the story of a player who made incremental gains in 2015, not of one who took his game to the Next Level, requiring us to use Extraneous Capital Letters when we Talk About Him in Fantasy Baseball Articles Like This One. The $14 season was nice, but it is difficult to consider paying a player par value when he doesn’t offer double digit steals, home runs or a batting average that is anything more than slightly above (fantasy) league average. The other side of this coin is that Gregorius’ flyball rate dropped well below 40 percent after two seasons where he posted rates between 42-43 percent. Yankee Stadium is a ridiculously good home-run park for left-handed hitters. Even a moderate return to Gregorius’ prior fly ball profile could lead to a slight jump in home runs, and 12-13 home runs from a starting middle infielder in AL-only does have value.
Jose Iglesias, Tigers ($15)
When he was traded from the Red Sox to the Tigers in 2013, Iglesias was supposed to be a good field, no hit shortstop who would stick in the majors for his glove but provide little if any fantasy value with his bat. Over the course of two seasons, Iglesias has hit .300 or better and has managed to post close to league average numbers at the position. The batting average is mostly what you get with Iglesias, although in 2015’s limited stolen base context the 11 steals were nice as well. It is hard to see much more developing here, but Iglesias’ high contact rates will likely keep his batting average decent and give him a decent amount of AL-only fantasy value.
Tim Anderson, White Sox
Despite the fact that the only thing that is standing in front of Anderson and the starting shortstop job in Chicago is Tyler Saladino, it is far from a sure thing that Anderson will wrest the job from Saladino in 2016. While many believe that Anderson’s bat could survive in the majors right now, his defense needs work and some believe he may never make it as a shortstop. The strikeouts lead to concerns about average, but the 15-home-run, 35-40 stolen-base ceiling is what has fantasy analysts drooling.
Jose Ramirez, Indians ($8)
With Jason Kipnis healthy and Francisco Lindor in the fold, it would appear that Ramirez’s best paths to playing time on Cleveland’s major league roster are blocked. However, there is the possibility that Ramirez could wrest the third base job from Giovanny Urshela if the latter has a terrible spring training or struggles out of the gate. Ramirez hit a terrible .219 last year but was the victim of a .232 BABIP. Ramirez’s average should improve by default and if he does get to play every day, a 10-homer, 20-steal campaign isn’t a crazy expectation. A starting job is a long shot, however.
J.J. Hardy, Orioles ($4)
Conventional wisdom entering 2015 was that Hardy’s shoulder injury was the reason his power disappeared in 2014 but that he would bounce back. Conventional wisdom must have been on a coffee break. Not only did Hardy’s power not return but his offensive production collapsed. His defense saved him from being a complete black hole for the Orioles, but this didn’t do his fantasy managers any good. Maybe there is another 20-25 home-run season lurking, but at 33 years of age it isn’t a solid bet. Hardy was been working on shoulder strengthening exercises this offseason, so it is worth watching him in Spring Training to see if this has any impact on his batted ball distance.
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