Winter Is Leaving: San Diego Padres

You know the story about Billy Beane retreating into the bowels of the Coliseum to avoid actually watching his meticulously crafted team play baseball. Someday similar tales will circulate about A.J. Preller ducking Padres games, only Preller—the story will go—won’t be hiding on a stationary bike somewhere in Petco Park. Instead he’ll be 3,000 miles away on a scouting trip in the Dominican Republic, radar gun pointed in the general direction of a lanky 16-year-old pitcher.

Last year Preller may have looked away from the on-field proceedings for a different reason, as his vision for a winning team, which included bringing in veterans Matt Kemp, James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, and Justin Upton, flopped spectacularly to register a Padres-like 74 wins. If there’s a silver lining to the ultimate disappointment of another 70-something win season—that’s five straight and six in seven years, for those counting—it’s that the Padres have quietly set themselves up for a big year on the amateur side in 2016.

Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy, both somewhat curiously held onto at last season’s trade deadline, turned into compensatory draft picks when they were handed qualifying offers in November. Upton was an obvious candidate to reject his and enter free agency, but Kennedy was more of a borderline case, and the Padres were rewarded for their (mildly) brazen decision to offer him a one-year, $15.8 million deal—even though he ended up making that decision look obvious in signing a jarring five-year, $70 million pact with Kansas City. Throw in a competitive balance pick and suddenly the Padres have six of the draft’s top 85 selections, and according to Baseball America, the third-highest signing bonus pool in the league at nearly $13 million.

More intriguing than what the Padres will do in the draft is their international game plan, particularly given Preller’s familiarity with the realm of foreign scouting. Two things were apparent during Preller’s time with Texas, which included heavy involvement in the Rangers’ international program: (1) the Rangers were often major players in the international market (i.e., they spent a lot of money) and (2) the Rangers often turned their international signings into solid prospects and productive major leaguers (think Martin Perez, Jurickson Profar, Rougned Odor, and Nomar Mazara).

Source: Baseball America

During Preller’s first J-2 signing period in San Diego, the Padres were careful not to spend past their $2.69 international bonus pool, though they still signed the seventh-most players (38) in the league during the 2015 calendar year. Remember, teams that overspend their bonus pool by 15 percent or more are taxed 100 percent on the overage and are limited to spending no more than $300,000 on any international amateur free agent for two successive signing periods. The idea all along was that the Padres were waiting for just the right time to pounce on an international splurge of their own, and with big-market clubs like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers—plus seven other teams—currently residing in MLB’s international penalty box, that time is now.

The Padres have nearly $3.35M to spend on international amateurs this signing period before incurring penalties. For a team that cracked the $100 million payroll milestone for the first time last season and subsequently slashed it—albeit slightly—going into this year, there are some questions as to just how far they’ll be willing to go on under-18 international prospects. Since the new rules were put into place in 2012, some teams like the Rays and Cubs (2013-2014 signing period) have taken a conservative approach to bonus pool busting, but the more recent trend has been defined by bolder spending patterns.

Sources: Baseball America and Jesse Spector

The Padres were apparently close to signing Yoan Moncada last year before the Red Sox swooped in and paid him $31.5 million—that’s $63 million, taxes included. While the Padres obviously weren’t willing to match the Red Sox, the fact that they were in the race until the end indicates that perhaps there will be more money in the Preller’s international coffer than expected. Perhaps.

Of course, the Padres have been in this position before, with high draft picks and exciting international signings, and more often than not they’ve failed either one or both halves of baseball’s toughest puzzle—finding and developing good players.

The best product to come out of San Diego’s Dominican academy—opened way back in 2007 to much fanfare—is Rymer Liriano, and he was designated for assignment and dealt to the Brewers back in January. Stateside San Diego once drafted Matt Bush first overall and Donavan Tate third overall in separate years (2004 and 2009, respectively) and—it gets worse—in those two drafts combined the Padres produced just 10 major leaguers and 1.8 cumulative WARP. That’s one of those feats a team might have trouble duplicating if it were aiming for ineptitude.

The difference now is supposed to be Preller and the talent he’s brought into San Diego’s front office—respected names like Don Welke, Chris Kemp, Logan White, and Sam Geaney. This new-look Padres regime should excel at what the others couldn’t, turning San Diego back into a consistent threat without help from Kevin Towers’ fly-by-night—yet somehow effective—trading strategy.

If you can look past the initial missteps with the big-league roster, there are reasons for optimism. The farm system, pillaged in Preller’s trading spree last offseason, was rejuvenated with a single deal in November as Craig Kimbrel-to-Boston returned four interesting prospects, two of which—Manuel Margot (14) and Javier Guerra (56)—cracked our top 100. There’s other young, exciting talent around, too, like Hunter Renfroe, Ruddy Giron, and Austin Hedges, an all-world defensive catcher who’ll retain significant upside until robot umpires take over. And then there’s someone like Michael Gettys, a tools-first, performance-later 20-year-old outfielder who has become an afterthought amidst the minor-league shakeup—though his .617 OPS and 31 percent strikeout rate last year didn’t help his cause. Talented yet largely forgotten players like Gettys are a sign the system is moving in the right direction.

There’s talent on the farm, sure, but the Padres will need more of it if they want to emerge as divisional contenders, particularly given the Dodgers’ money (and loaded farm system, and smarts, and . . .) and the Giants’ developmental magic (seriously, how is Matt Duffy this good?). Another 70-something win season in 2016 won’t feel wasted if Preller and Co. are able to lay the foundation for a future player development juggernaut. That’s the hope, anyway, and since it’s still technically spring training, even the most cynical Padres fans are on board with the thought of a brighter future.