TDGX Transactions: Let’s Trade Victor Robles Again

Welcome back to the latest installment of TDGX Transactions, BP’s weekly series providing fantasy owners with an inside look at The Dynasty Guru Experts League (TDGX), a 20-team (40-man roster) 5×5 rotisserie dynasty league. It is the literal embodiment of the phrase “deep dynasty.” It’s also populated by some of the most talented fantasy baseball analysts and competitors on the planet. In addition to taking an in-depth look at each week’s TDGX free agent acquisitions ($100 FAAB budget per team with zero dollar bids allowed) we will also break down every major trade, with perspectives from both sides of the deal.

While my esteemed colleague Ben Carsley trekked ahead fearlessly in his bizarre pursuit to own every Oakland first base platoon option on the FAAB side (more on that later) the trade winds were blowing once again in TDGX, with five deals brokered last week. 19-year-old Nationals outfielder Victor Robles, who was traded twice within the last 48 hours, is well on his way to becoming the TDGX version of Octavio Dotel. Let’s dive right in.

Tom Trudeau & Craig Glaser (MLB.com) acquire:

Victor Robles OF Washington

Drew Smyly SP Tampa Bay

Luke Chatelain (The Dynasty Guru) acquires:

Max Scherzer SP Washington

“It took me way longer than it probably should have but I finally cashed in my biggest prospect chip. In addition to Robles, I also sent away a squarely in his physical prime, albeit struggling, Smyly. I'm still a believer, but something doesn't seem right, and with a history of shoulder issues I felt OK sending him packing. I cashed Robles/Smyly in to buy the fifth-most valuable starter so far in 2016. This is a true “go for the gold” move as adding a 31-year-old starter is not something I tend to do in dynasty leagues. With my teams poor performance in ERA, Ws, Ks, and WHIP so far, this move provides me with an immediate boost as I chase Ian Kahn and Tim Mcleod for a title. Hopefully this is the move that will help push my team over the top.” –Luke Chatelain

“We acquired Scherzer in a blockbuster of a deal earlier this year in exchange for blue chip prospects. Since then we have not been able to make up ground as quickly as we wanted, so we're willing to focus more on next year. We could use a healthy, productive ace next year, but holding starting pitching when you are not contending is lazy and bad business. It's basically crossing your fingers the asset doesn't decline or get hurt. We'll shed that risk in exchange for one of the most exciting and impressive prospects in the sport.

Smyly has an ugly ERA and the same fly ball troubles that have always plagued him, but the whiffs and velo are unchanged. We believe he's a really good buy low, though a trade from Tampa could hurt his value if it's to a lesser park.” –Tom Trudeau

Tom Trudeau & Craig Glaser (MLB.com) acquire:

Danny Valencia 3B Oakland

Marcus Stroman SP Toronto

Corey Dickerson OF Tampa Bay

Gerardo Parra OF Colorado

Jhoulys Chacin SP Los Angeles Angels

George Bissell (Baseball Prospectus) acquires:

Victor Robles OF Washington

Chad Kuhl SP Pittsburgh

Jarrett Parker OF San Francisco

Lonnie Chisenhall OF Cleveland

“Victor, I hardly knew ye'. A day after acquiring Robles (and Smyly), Craig and I shipped him away for a package of very solid major-league players of assorted talents and warts. I won't spill any more ink on Robles. Chisenhall and Parker should be owned in a league of this size, but that's the nicest thing I can say about them. Chad Kuhl is about ready (1.75 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts this season) and the Pirates starting rotation is in shambles.

The return package is a mix of buy lows (Dickerson and Stroman), useful role players (Chacin and Parra) and a hitter (Valencia) that makes Jose Bautista’s age-29 breakout season look young by comparison. At 31 years old, Valencia is enjoying another productive year far beyond his career norms. Based on this trade, it’s fair to say that neither George nor I are buying what he’s doing right now, but he doesn’t have to be this good for Craig and I to profit. I’m not the right fantasy owner to dissect changes of approach to consider the legitimacy of what he’s doing, but it’s hard to fake a .230 ISO and the projections believe he is very comfortably above average as a hitter.

I’ll use my time on the struggling Stroman, who I believe is a solid SP3, to once again harp on how terrible of an idea it is to retain starting pitching when you are not competing in dynasty. The next Geico ad should be “if you’re a pitcher, you decline. It’s what you do." The only case against trading your pitching is if you think you can compete in the following season and you play in a league where it’s hard to buy major-league talent in the offseason. Stroman joins Wacha, Pineda, Archer, Ventura, Keuchel, Cole and others on the long list of young starters that have lost value this year.” –Tom Trudeau

“I’ll be the first one to stand up and admit that I overpaid significantly in terms of impact major-league talent, that’s not up for debate. However, considering the state of my roster (full-scale rebuild mode), I firmly believe I didn’t give up anything egregious (it killed me to trade Valencia) to acquire a prospect that has an extremely high potential to develop into a franchise cornerstone. No prospect has increased their fantasy stock more over than Robles over the last year. He wasn’t just the youngest player in the New York-Penn league last summer, he was arguably the leagues premier offensive performer, hitting .343/.424/.479 with 11 extra-base hits and 12 stolen bases in just 167 plate appearances. This season, the 19-year-old has hit .316/.413/.475 with 15 extra-base hits (five homers) and 16 stolen bases in 211 plate appearances in the South Atlantic League (A-Ball). Those numbers are impressive, but given the added context that Robles is nearly three years younger than the average age of his current competition, they stand out even more than Pitbull performing at a country music awards show. As a rebuilding franchise, this is the type of five-category potential superstar I’m electing to hitch my wagon to.” –George Bissell

Tom Trudeau & Craig Glaser (MLB.com) acquire:

Grant Holmes SP Los Angeles Dodgers

Austin Riley 3B Atlanta

James Anderson (Rotowire) acquires:

Jaime Garcia SP St. Louis

“I am winning saves, and it's a lead I think I can hold onto, or at least not finish worse than second or third, so with Tyson Ross on the DL and the waiver wire dry, I decided I needed to trade for a SP and go from starting five starters and four relievers to a six-and-three split. On the message I sent to the league, I specifically requested a top-60sh SP in exchange for prospects/my no. 1 pick in 2017. Garcia fits that description perfectly. He's nothing special long term, given the injury history and the lack of strikeouts, but he fit my needs. Given where I am in the standings, I believe there would have been a level of diminishing returns if I acquired a better pitcher than Garcia. I project that I could gain up to four points in strikeouts and three points in wins with my new pitching staff without giving up ground in ERA or WHIP. I gave up my 2015 first-round pick (Holmes), my 2016 first-round pick (Riley) and my 2017 first-round pick, which should wind up being in the 18-20 range overall. I was cool with this, as I think there's plenty of risk attached to the two prospects, and they weren't going to help me for at least the next two years. Garcia will help me over that stretch, giving me a legitimate chance to win this year and next year.” –James Anderson

“We acquired Garcia about a month ago in exchange for Max Pentecost and Forrest Wall, but our ascent up the standings has stalled out, so we will slowly back away from the talented lefty time bomb. As with Scherzer, it did not make sense for us to close our eyes, cross our fingers and pray that Garcia stayed healthy when we could flip him for growth assets.

Holmes isn't my kind of target since he throws baseballs instead of hits them, but as a productive, former first-round pick, he is precisely the sort of player other owners often covet. I smelled an arbitrage opportunity. (We traded him later in the day for a player we prefer to Jaime.) Riley is a buy-low, having struggled to keep up in his first taste of full season ball. The pedigree and age make it easier to grant him a mulligan, though the risk has increased.” –Tom Trudeau

Al Melchior (CBS) acquires:

Grant Holmes SP Los Angeles Dodgers

Jon Harris SP Toronto

Tom Trudeau & Craig Glaser (MLB.com) acquire:

Arodys Vizcaino RP Atlanta

“Closers are a luxury for a team in rebuilding mode. Especially closers on bad teams who have just seven save opportunities two months into the season. While I look for some major league talent when trading away established starters, I had no problem dealing Vizcaino for a couple of recent first-rounders who are still in the lower minors. Holmes, drafted 22nd overall by the Dodgers in 2014, is faring well in the California League, particularly over his last five starts, in which he has walked a total of six batters and allowed an .036 ISO. Harris, whom the Blue Jays took 29th overall last year, is posting a 2.36 ERA in the Midwest League, while making dramatic improvements to his strikeout and walk rates.” –Al Melchior

Nick Doran (Rotoworld) acquires:

Jon Jay OF San Diego

Tom Trudeau & Craig Glaser (MLB.com) acquire:

2017 4th Round draft pick

“My team is dreadfully short on outfielders, largely because Michael Brantley and Yasiel Puig are on the disabled list. I gave up a fourth-round pick to acquire Jon Jay (since we keep 35 players, that pick is equivalent to a 39th-rounder in a redraft league). He is slashing .299/.346/.407 on the season and playing everyday. In a league this deep, it is very hard to find players who are actually starting for their major-league teams. Adding Jay allowed me to take the woeful Desmond Jennings out of my starting lineup. Jay won't accrue a ton of runs and RBI but at least he won't kill my batting average, like Jennings did. Jay will produce some runs scored and may even steal a few bags, and steals are my worst category right now.” –Nick Doran

TDGX FAAB Acquisitions: Week 10

$8 Robbie Grossman (Luke Chatelain, The Dynasty Guru)

$7 Adonis Garcia (Al Melchior, CBS)

$6 Christian Friedrich (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)

“At this point I'm taking chances on starting pitching. With James Shields in Chicago and Miguel Gonzalez in the bullpen, I opted for the eminently available Friedrich. I don't believe his run will continue (despite his success against the Braves this week), but hey, he's throwing inning and missing bats for the present. Sometimes it's worth taking a cheap flier.” –Craig Goldstein

$6 Nick Hundley (Ian Kahn & Tim Mcleod, Patton & Co.)

$5 Yonder Alonso (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)

“Not a sexy pickup, but Alonso is only 29-years-old and is just one year removed from hitting .282/.361/.381. He's never going to be a stalwart, but first base is probably the thinnest position on my entire roster, and pretty much anyone who gets playing time matters in #TDGX. Maybe he'll struggle all year as he adjusts to life in the AL, but I don't need Alonso to be particularly good this year, and his 3B eligibility is a nice bonus. Either he's my tolerable 1B/UT next year, or I deal him. Guys like Alonso (Seth Smith, Jon Jay, etc) have worked for me as throw-ins in bigger trades before. For $5, it's definitely a gamble worth taking.” –Ben Carsley

$4 Yu-Cheng Chang (J.J. Jansons, Baseball Prospectus)

$4 Kevin Padlo (J.J. Jansons, Baseball Prospectus)

“I know that Padlo has his many admirers in this league, so I went a few extra bucks above where I would have liked to acquire him. As one of the youngest players in his draft class (he's in his age-19 season after being drafted in the fifth round of the 2014 draft), Padlo owns one of the weirdest lines (.197/.343/.406) in the minors to this point and hasn't been helped any by a .240 BABIP. I've been enamored with Padlo's power/speed profile since being drafted, and his eight home runs this year place him in a tie for second in the Midwest League, perhaps indicating that he wasn't simply feasting on the thin air of Colorado's lower affiliates prior to his trade to Tampa this offseason in the Corey Dickerson/Jake McGee extravaganza.

Chang is a prospect that caught my eye when I was watching his teammates Bobby Bradley and Justus Sheffield in the Midwest League last season. He's made progress with the bat this season, lowering his strikeout rate, raising his walk rate, hitting for more power and raising his isolated power output almost 100 points this season in the (High-A) Carolina League above his .130 ISO last season in the MWL. Chang's .857 OPS ranks fifth among all qualified shortstops at any level (including the California League) below Double-A to this point in the season, and he could reach double-digit steal totals as well.” –J.J. Jansons

$3 Jake Marisnick (Greg Wellemeyer, Baseball Prospectus)

$3 Paul DeJong (Wilson Karaman, Baseball Prospectus)

$3 Hernan Perez (Luke Chatelain, The Dynasty Guru)

$3 John Lamb (Greg Wellemeyer, Baseball Prospectus)

$3 Tyler Saladino (Greg Wellemeyer, Baseball Prospectus)

$3 James Loney (Greg Wellemeyer, Baseball Prospectus)

$2 Danny Espinosa (Chris Mitchell, RotoExperts)

$2 Michael Bourn (George Bissell, Baseball Prospectus)

He’s the fantasy baseball equivalent of Bernie Sanders at this point. Even though his days as a relevant fantasy contributor are probably over, Bourn just refuses to throw in the towel. The 33-year-old signed a minor-league deal with Arizona last month and has already found his way to the top of the Snakes lineup. He’s hit .263/.344/.351 with eight runs scored, seven RBI and three steals in just 65 plate appearances (18 games) so far. If he stays healthy (I can hear you laughing, please stop) and continues to bat ahead of Paul Goldschmidt, he becomes a surprisingly valuable trade chip that I can move to a contending team later this summer.

$2 David Phelps (J.J. Jansons, Baseball Prospectus)

$2 Mark Zagunis (J.J. Jansons, Baseball Prospectus)

“Zagunis, a former catcher who was moved to the outfield after being drafted in the third round of the 2014 draft, is one of the Cubs more advanced hitting prospects. His plate discipline (14 percent walk rate or higher at each minor-league level) makes him an intriguing deep league fantasy prospect. He's had an OBP of over .400 at every level since being drafted and this year's .406 mark in the Southern League equals last season's total while in the Florida State League. Although he hasn't yet this season, Zagunis has the athleticism to run, stealing double-digits in each of the last two seasons. While his chance likely won't come in Chicago, I think he gets moved near the deadline to a rebuilding club that could give him a shot in an outfield corner sooner rather than later.” –J.J. Jansons

$1 Austin Slater (Ian Kahn & Tim Mcleod, Patton & Co.)

A classic example of scouting the minor-league stat line (not that there’s anything wrong with that), the 23-year-old former Stanford standout, who was just promoted to Triple-A last week, is hitting .311/.407/.470 with five homers and six stolen bases in 46 games this season. Prior to the promotion, Slater led the Eastern League in batting average and ranked third in OPS (.902) ahead of highly touted prospects like David Dahl, Bradley Zimmer and J.P. Crawford. Considering the negligible acquisition cost, Slater could prove to be a nice find for Kahn and Mcleod off the waiver wire in due time.

$0 Brandon Dixon (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)

$0 Beau Burrows (James Anderson, Rotowire)

$0 Oscar De La Cruz (James Anderson, Rotowire)

$0 Pedro Strop (Tom Trudeau & Craig Glaser, MLB.com)

$0 Pedro Baez (Tom Trudeau & Craig Glaser, MLB.com)

$0 Jarrett Parker (Tom Trudeau & Craig Glaser, MLB.com)

$0 Nick Kingham (Tom Trudeau & Craig Glaser, MLB.com)

$0 Kevin Siegrist (Tom Trudeau & Craig Glaser, MLB.com)