Index: Voting Results | Individual Ballots | World Series Picks
Yesterday we started our prediction miniseries with a look at the American League. Today we unveil our National League and
World Series picks.
Each author’s ballot may be found later in the article. Here, we neatly summarize the results. In each division standings table you’ll find the average rank of the team, plus the standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more in agreement the authors were about that team’s place in the division standings. In our AL column, the Royals had a standard deviation of 0, meaning that all authors agreed they would finish last. And if it weren’t for the rebellious, anti-establishment ways of one Keith Woolner, the Cardinals would notch a standard deviation of 0 on the other end of the standings.
It’s worth noting that the standard deviations are much higher in the NL than in the AL, particularly in the NL West this year, where disagreement over the likely effect of Bud Selig’s fall guy on the division made predictions span the gamut–within reason, though, as only two of our authors think the Rockies will finish out of last place. In their predictions for who will go home with the championship in October, half our authors pointed to the Oakland Athletics to end their recent run of playoff disappointments by taking home the title for the first time since 1989.
NL EAST
Team Average Std. Dev. Atlanta Braves 1.5 .5 New York Mets 1.83 .79 Philadelphia Phillies 2.75 .72 Washington Nationals 4.16 .55 Florida Marlins 4.83 .42
NL CENTRAL
Team Average Std. Dev. St. Louis Cardinals 1.16 .55 Milwaukee Brewers 2.25 .59 Houston Astros 3.16 1.06 Chicago Cubs 3.75 .72 Pittsburgh Pirates 5.25 .92 Cincinnati Reds 5.41 .64
NL WEST
Team Average Std. Dev. Los Angeles Dodgers 1.58 .86 San Diego Padres 2.5 1.12 Arizona Diamondbacks 3 1.08 San Francisco Giants 3.08 1.04 Colorado Rockies 4.83 .37
Author Winner Loser ---------------------------------------- Will Carroll Indians Cardinals Dan Fox Mets Red Sox Steven Goldman A's Braves Kevin Goldstein White Sox Mets Thomas Gorman A's Mets Jay Jaffe A's Cardinals Chris Kahrl Red Sox Mets Jonah Keri A's Phillies Dayn Perry Red Sox Braves Joe Sheehan A's Mets Nate Silver A's Mets Keith Woolner Red Sox Brewers
Individual Awards:
For the MVP voting, we’ve kept the traditional points system in place that’s been used elsewhere: 10-7-5-3-1 for the MVP Award, and
5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that’s 10 points for a first place vote, 7 for a second place vote,
etc). The projected statistics appearing after each player’s name are their baseline PECOTA forecasts.
Legend:
- Hitters: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), AVG/OBP/SLG, VORP, WARP, EqA
- Pitchers: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), IP, ERA, VORP, WARP
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols 12 109 (9) .336/.430/.619, 86.9, 9.2, .345
- David Wright 9 54 (1) .298/.384/.527, 58.9, 7.3, .309
- Carlos Delgado 3 18 (1) .278/.376/.521, 36.9, 4.4, .304
- Andruw Jones 3 18 .275/.351/.522, 40, 6.1, .288
- Barry Bonds 4 16 .300/.448/.620, 60.6, 6.8, .353
- Chase Utley 2 15 (1) .276/.351/.481, 31.4, 5.1, .278
- Carlos Beltran 2 14 .285/.368/.504, 40.8, 6.3, .291
- Ryan Howard 3 13 .276/.363/.582, 36.1, 4.6, .303
- Derrek Lee 4 10 .296/.381/.563, 49.1, 6.7, .310
- J.D. Drew 4 8 .290/.402/.525, 41.7, 5.9, .315
- Miguel Cabrera 2 6 .304/.376/.549, 56.8, 6.9, .309
- Jason Bay 2 6 .284/.385/.525, 46.3, 6.8, .304
- Adam Dunn 2 4 .261/.390/.550, 42.6, 5.6, .310
- Bobby Abreu 1 5 .286/.400/.481, 34.8, 5.8, .301
- Lance Berkman 1 5 .292/.408/.519, 45.4, 5.9, .315
- Scott Rolen 1 3 .261/.349/.453, 16.7, 3.6, .274
- Brian Giles 1 3 .286/.402/.470, 44.1, 6.2, .309
- Jeff Kent 1 1 .268/.346/.470, 32.6, 4.7, .279
- Morgan Ensberg 1 1 .275/.364/.494, 34.1, 5.0, .289
- Jake Peavy 1 1 213.7, 3.41, 48.4, 7.3
NL Cy Young
- Jake Peavy 9 39 (6) 213.7, 3.41, 48.4, 7.3
- Roy Oswalt 5 17 (2) 200.3, 3.72, 39.8, 6.3
- Brandon Webb 3 10 (1) 208.7, 3.68, 38.5, 6
- Pedro Martinez 5 9 206.3, 2.86, 54.3, 7.6
- Carlos Zambrano 2 6 (1) 219.3, 3.44, 44.9, 6.9
- Dontrelle Willis 2 6 (1) 209.3, 3.48, 38.5, 6.2
- Ben Sheets 2 6 (1) 196.7, 3.24, 45.7, 6.8
- Eric Gagne 2 4 47.7, 1.93, 17.7, 5.2
- Chris Carpenter 1 3 225.3, 3.37, 46.7, 6.8
- Doug Davis 1 3 208, 3.95, 35.0, 5.9
- Jason Schmidt 1 1 177.3, 3.39, 36.3, 5.6
- Mark Mulder 1 1 186, 3.92, 25.4, 4.4
- Zach Duke 1 1 178.3, 3.86, 27.9, 4.7
NL ROY
- Prince Fielder 10 30 (4) .262/.342/.473, 15.0, 2.5, .273
- Jeremy Hermida 7 27 (3) .252/.354/.427, 13.9, 3.8, .276
- Ryan Zimmerman 6 26 (4) .279/.323/.441, 1.1, 4.0, .260
- Matt Cain 5 14 (1) 155, 4.50, 11.5, 3.0
- Josh Willingham 3 7 .245/.369/.452, 23.1, 3.6, .286
- Josh Barfield 1 1 .255/.316/.404, 16.6, 3.7, .255
- Conor Jackson 1 1 .263/.351/.427, 5.2, 2.1, .262
- Ronny Cedeno 1 1 .266/.312/.372, 7.3, 2.7, .236
- Chris Young 1 1 .251/.340/.443, 16.5, 4.0, .264
- Anthony Reyes 1 1 141.7, 4.07, 18.5, 3.3
- Will Carroll
- Dan Fox
- Steven Goldman
- Kevin Goldstein
- Thomas Gorman
- Jay Jaffe
- Christina Kahrl
- Jonah Keri
- Dayn Perry
- Joe Sheehan
- Nate Silver
- Keith Woolner
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Braves Cardinals Giants Mets (WC) Brewers Dodgers Phillies Astros Padres Marlins Cubs Diamondbacks Nationals Reds Rockies Pirates
Most Valuable Player
- Albert Pujols
- Ryan Howard
- Carlos Delgado
- Andrew Jones
- Derrek Lee
Cy Young
- Ben Sheets
- Roy Oswalt
- Mark Mulder
Rookie of the Year
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Jeremy Hermida
- Prince Fielder
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Mets Cardinals Dodgers Braves (WC) Astros Giants Phillies Brewers Padres Nats Cubs Diamondbacks Marlins Reds Rockies Pirates
MVP
- Albert Pujols
- David Wright
- Derrek Lee
- Scott Rolen
- Barry Bonds
CY
- Carlos Zambrano
- Jake Peavy
- Eric Gagne
RoY
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Jeremy Hermida
- Ronny Cedeno
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Braves Cardinals Padres Phillies (WC) Brewers Diamondbacks Mets Astros Dodgers Nats Cubs Giants Marlins Pirates Rockies Reds
MVP
- Albert Pujols
- David Wright
- Chase Utley
- Jason Bay
- Derrek Lee
CY
- Jake Peavy
- Brandon Webb
- Pedro Martinez
RoY
- Jeremy Hermida
- Prince Fielder
- Matt Cain
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Mets Cardinals Diamondbacks Braves (WC) Astros Padres Nats Brewers Dodgers Phillies Cubs Giants Marlins Pirates Rockies Reds
MVP
- Albert Pujols
- David Wright
- Andruw Jones
- Derrek Lee
- Miguel Cabrera
CY
- Roy Oswalt
- Pedro Martinez
- Carlos Zambrano
RoY
- Prince Fielder
- Jeremy Hermida
- Josh Barfield
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Mets Cardinals Dodgers Braves (WC) Brewers Giants Phillies Astros Diamondbacks Nats Cubs Padres Marlins Pirates Rockies Reds
MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Barry Bonds
- David Wright
- Carlos Delgado
- Jake Peavy
CY
- Jake Peavy
- Pedro Martinez
- Ben Sheets
RoY
- Matt Cain
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Prince Fielder
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Braves Cardinals Dodgers Mets Brewers (WC) Padres Phillies Cubs Diamondbacks Nats Astros Giants Marlins Pirates Rockies Reds
MVP
- Albert Pujols
- David Wright
- Miguel Cabrera
- Ryan Howard
- J.D. Drew
CY
- Jake Peavy
- Roy Oswalt
- Dontrelle Willis
RoY
- Prince Fielder
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Josh Willingham
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Mets Cardinals Dodgers Braves (WC) Brewers Padres Phillies Astros Diamondbacks Nats Pirates Giants Marlins Cubs Rockies Reds
MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Carlos Beltran
- David Wright
- Brian Giles
- J.D. Drew
CY
- Jake Peavy
- Pedro Martinez
- Brandon Webb
RoY
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Matt Cain
- Prince Fielder
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Phillies Cardinals Dodgers Braves (WC) Astros Padres Mets Brewers Diamondbacks Nats Cubs Giants Marlins Reds Rockies Pirates
MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Andruw Jones
- Lance Berkman
- Ryan Howard
- Morgan Ensberg
CY
- Jake Peavy
- Eric Gagne
- Roy Oswalt
RoY
- Jeremy Hermida
- Prince Fielder
- Conor Jackson
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Braves Cardinals Dodgers Mets (WC) Brewers Padres Phillies Cubs Giants Nats Astros Diamondbacks Marlins Reds Rockies Pirates
MVP
- Carlos Delgado
- Albert Pujols
- J.D. Drew
- Andruw Jones
- David Wright
CY
- Jake Peavy
- Chris Carpenter
- Pedro Martinez
RoY
- Prince Fielder
- Josh Willingham
- Anthony Reyes
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Braves Cardinals Dodgers Mets (WC) Cubs Diamondbacks Phillies Brewers Padres Marlins Reds Giants Nats Astros Rockies Pirates
MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Carlos Beltran
- Bobby Abreu
- Jeff Kent
- Adam Dunn
CY
- Roy Oswalt
- Jake Peavy
- Brandon Webb
RoY
- Jeremy Hermida
- Matt Cain
- Chris Young
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Mets Cardinals Dodgers Braves Brewers Diamondbacks (WC) Phillies Pirates Giants Marlins Cubs Rockies Nationals Astros Padres Reds
MVP
- David Wright
- Barry Bonds
- Albert Pujols
- Jason Bay
- J.D. Drew
CY
- Brandon Webb
- Jake Peavy
- Zach Duke
RoY
- Prince Fielder
- Josh Willingham
- Matt Cain
STANDINGS
NL EAST NL CENTRAL NL WEST Braves Brewers Padres Phillies (WC) Astros Giants Mets Cardinals Dodgers Nats Cubs Rockies Marlins Reds Diamondbacks Pirates
MVP
- Chase Utley
- Albert Pujols
- David Wright
- Adam Dunn
- Barry Bonds
CY
- Dontrelle Willis
- Doug Davis
- Jason Schmidt
RoY
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Jeremy Hermida
- Prince Fielder
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