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August 1, 2012

Future Shock

The Midseason Top 50 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

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Doing a midseason prospect list is an exercise in managing hype and dealing with insufficient information. Half-seasons mean small sample sizes, and while I'm speaking to scouts on a daily basis, I'm often dealing with two or three looks instead of four or six. And then there is the information we don't have. So many of these players have earned midseason promotions, and that half-season at a new level will provide valuable information that for now we just have to do without. So, with the understanding that several changes between now and the official Top 101 in the offseason will take place, here's a snapshot of the Top 50 prospects in baseball. For eligibility purposes, players needed to still be in the minors as of July 1. Draftees from 2012 are not included.

Have a Kindle? Additional commentary on Kevin's Midseason Top 50 is available in The Call-Up 2012, our just-published midseason update to Baseball Prospectus 2012.

1. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers (Preseason #4)

2. Wil Myers, OF, Royals (Preseason #19)

3. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles (Preseason #6)

4. Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals (Preseason #23)

5. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles (Preseason #8)

6. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mariners (Preseason #14)

7. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians (Preseason #17)

8. Travis d'Arnaud, C, Blue Jays (Preseason #16)

9. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers (Preseason #71)

10. Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds (Preseason #22)

11. Mike Olt, 3B, Rangers (Preseason #45)

12. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pirates (Preseason #9)

13. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins (Preseason #80)

14. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets (Preseason #30)

15. Javier Baez, SS, Cubs (Preseason #66)

16. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves (Preseason #5)

17. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins (Preseason #12)

18. Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks (Preseason #37)

19. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Diamondbacks (Preseason #21)

20. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals (Preseason #47)

21. Bubba Starling, OF, Royals (Preseason #27)

22. Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins (Preseason #33)

23. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees (Preseason #40)

24. Jorge Soler, OF, Cubs

25. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets (Preseason #25)

26. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays

27. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Mariners (Preseason #35)

28. Jackie Bradley, OF, Red Sox

29. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals (Preseason #10)

30. Jorge Bonifacio, OF, Royals

31. Austin Hedges, C, Padres (Preseason #94)

32. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates (Preseason #13)

33. Matt Barnes, RHP, Red Sox

34. Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Angels

35. Jacob Turner, RHP, Marlins (Preseason #15)

36. Mason Williams, OF, Yankees (Preseason #99)

37. Luis Heredia, RHP, Pirates (Preseason #42)

38. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies (Preseason #20)

39. Carlos Martinez, RHP, Cardinals (Preseason #31)

40. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Astros (Preseason #73)

41. Daniel Norris, LHP, Blue Jays (Preseason #54)

42. Anthony Gose, OF, Blue Jays (Preseason #68)

43. Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals (Preseason #69)

44. Rymer Liriano, OF, Padres (Preseason #52)

45. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals (Preseason #26)

46. Trevor May, RHP, Phillies (Preseason #51)

47. Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers (Preseason #70)

48. Chris Owings, SS, Diamondbacks

49. Matt Davidson, 3B, Diamondbacks

50. Dan Straily, RHP, Athletics 

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

Related Content:  Prospects,  Scouting,  Top Prospects,  Top 50,  Prospects List

102 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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jalee121

In before people act like paying 4 bucks is the biggest travesty in their life.

Aug 01, 2012 05:00 AM
rating: 18
 
Dave from Pittsburgh

I disagree with Taillons ranking. He's been inconsistent, but he's still got a 3:1 K:BB ratio and it looks like hes finally on a roll.

Aug 01, 2012 05:20 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I'm not sure how a 3.86 ERA in July with 17 Ks in 30.1 innings = on a roll. I'm not being snarky, but we were told that this is the year that the reigns come off and he dominates and he just hasn't done that.

Aug 01, 2012 10:14 AM
 
eighteen
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Reins.

Aug 01, 2012 11:10 AM
rating: -5
 
Nater1177

Thanks for the in process look at the list, though I am curious what Xander Bogaerts did to drop out of the top 50. You had him at 32 in preseason and from I had heard/read he had more than held his own in High A as 19 year old (.287/.364/.485).

Aug 01, 2012 05:23 AM
rating: 12
 
Caps

was thinking this exact thing too

Aug 01, 2012 07:35 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He's the guy who generates the most questions, which is funny, because I swear to you all that he was 51. My biggest concern is that he's not only not a SS, but maybe not even a 3B. He could still move up if he keep it up in the second half.

Aug 01, 2012 10:15 AM
 
amazin_mess

KG

Is it safe to assume defense is a significant factor in your ratings?

Aug 01, 2012 11:15 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Defense is a significant factor in anyone's ratings, no? Anyone who rates players without considering defensive skills and positional scarcity isn't doing it right.

Aug 01, 2012 12:53 PM
 
amazin_mess

I agree. But KG's ratings are different than say, BA. I just wonder how much emphasis he places on defense. It seems like players that aren't good defenders or don't have a true position get downgraded.

Aug 01, 2012 13:45 PM
rating: 0
 
SaberTJ

Why wouldn't they get downgraded? A position player's value is based upon his offensive production relative to position. If Bogarts can't play SS he's going to need to hit even more to remain an elite prospect. The offensive level needed goes up even higher if he can't stay at 3b.

Therefore, if Bogarts was a SS his projected offensive skills would make him a considerable talent. But the further down the defensive spectrum he gets, the more he has to hit like Oscar Taveras to remain elite. So, this must mean that Bogarts' bat doesn't project as likely to become a first-division starter anymore if he can't play an elite defensive position.

Aug 01, 2012 14:46 PM
rating: 1
 
evo34

Name another 19-year-old with a .840 OPS at any position in the Carolina League... It's only happened once in the last 10 years (Wil Myers 2010). Either Bogaerts is much older than his listed age or he is an underrated prospect.

Aug 01, 2012 22:43 PM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Position plays a role in everyone's rankings.

Aug 01, 2012 15:28 PM
 
McCaffery

Turned out Ryan Braun couldn't stick at 3B either. Wonder what became of that guy?

(Just kidding, really. One counter-example does not an argument make, and Bogaerts doesn't have Braun's speed, for one thing. But you never know.)

Aug 04, 2012 11:56 AM
rating: 0
 
ogden10

Was also curious about Bogaerts

Aug 01, 2012 05:33 AM
rating: 3
 
Entheos
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

I heard Kevin saying that he won't stick at short...Probably why he soured on him...however to drop him out the top 50 is borderline insanity

Aug 01, 2012 10:08 AM
rating: -7
 
kuma32478

Javier Baez - has the possibility of him staying at SS long term increased?

Aug 01, 2012 06:25 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Not for me. I think he's a 3B in the end.

Aug 01, 2012 10:15 AM
 
hardyvan123

curious about Gary Brown, had a slow start but is coming on but a bit old maybe to show up on the top 50?

Aug 01, 2012 06:25 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Just outside the 50. I'm still a big fan.

Aug 01, 2012 10:16 AM
 
nikitos1979

Surprised to see Trevor May on the list after his recent struggles.

Aug 01, 2012 06:36 AM
rating: 3
 
Jivas
(649)

I'm surprised as well.

However, it appears that 2012 draftees weren't eligible for the list. Add those players in, and May falls off.

Also, if I recall (from the podcast), I believe KG finalized this list a few weeks ago. It could be that the list became just a tiny bit stale as BP held on to it while finalizing the remainder of it's Call-Up product.

Aug 01, 2012 08:47 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

No question that the list would be different today, and different a month from now.

Aug 01, 2012 10:16 AM
 
JPinPhilly

Trevor May on the list and Jesse Biddle off of it surprised me.

Aug 01, 2012 17:14 PM
rating: 1
 
MattWinks

Kevin for context when was this list compiled just to know what information was available when you made the ranking?

Aug 01, 2012 06:54 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Early July.

Aug 01, 2012 10:16 AM
 
JuanBobo

I assume Trevor Bauer is not eligible for this list, but out of curiosity, do you think his stock has fallen due to his rough MLB starts?

Aug 01, 2012 07:06 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I don't. Pitch efficiency was always a concern, and it still is. His approach to pitching frankly kind of annoys me. He tries to hard to be cute and clever when he could just blow guys away.

Aug 01, 2012 10:17 AM
 
JuanBobo

Agreed, if you watched his starts the stuff was clearly there, but he just insisted on nibbling. He'd inevitably fail to get a few borderline pitches and it seems like things would start to snowball - walks galore, wild pitches, home runs, etc

Aug 01, 2012 16:48 PM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

Surprised Wilmer Flores didnt crack the mid-40s, especially when guys like May did.

Aug 01, 2012 07:09 AM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He wouldn't be in my Top 100.

Aug 01, 2012 10:18 AM
 
amazin_mess

Wow...ok then

Aug 01, 2012 11:12 AM
rating: 0
 
rouse72

No Bogaerts is a huge oversight.

Aug 01, 2012 07:21 AM
rating: -3
 
DeathSpeculum

Oskar taveras can PITCH too!?!?

Aug 01, 2012 07:45 AM
rating: 0
 
Sharky

LOL

Aug 01, 2012 07:47 AM
rating: 0
 
Bradley Ankrom

fixed, thanks.

Aug 01, 2012 08:06 AM
rating: 0
 
morillos

Right. Taveras is a center fielder.

Aug 01, 2012 07:47 AM
rating: 0
 
Scott44

Without giving away rankings, how many '12s would fit into your top 25 and who would you rate the highest?

Aug 01, 2012 07:56 AM
rating: 1
 
meloyellow15

I'd be interested in Kevin's answer to this also. Would guys like Almora even be in consideration for the top 50?

Aug 01, 2012 08:12 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Not sure on the number, but Correa was my top draft prospect, so he'd be the highest ranking on here.

Aug 01, 2012 10:18 AM
 
Scott44

Very bullish on Walker as #2 ranked SP prospect. What sets him apart?

Aug 01, 2012 07:59 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Age and stuff. Think about all the pitching prospects exciting people at the lower levels, or even rookie ball who are older than Walker. He's a special talent.

Aug 01, 2012 10:19 AM
 
earpbartman

Better prospect -- 19-yr old Walker in AA now, or 19-yr old Teheran in AA two years ago? Same strikeout rate, other numbers better for Teheran, edge to Walker for breaking ball, edge to Teheran for changeup

Aug 01, 2012 08:11 AM
rating: 1
 
jackweiland

I don't understand how Baez can be #15 when all the twitter trolls complain that KG has an anti-Cubs bias.

THE UNIVERSE MAKES NO SENSE.

Aug 01, 2012 08:13 AM
rating: 16
 
tfierst

Was there any thought to adding Hicks? This year has to be his best year thus far, right? Does it get him close?

Aug 01, 2012 08:17 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He's back into Top 100 consideration certainly.

Aug 01, 2012 10:20 AM
 
Jivas
(649)

Thanks for the list, KG.

For the record, I have no problem with the $4 supplementary product (other than frustration over it only being accessible on the Kindle platform). However, Joe Hamrahi (link below) promised that the list would be available here "as soon as we can publish it after the ebook is available."

Were this the case, the list would have been published on Monday. It seems to me, however, that the BP pageviews were kept high on Monday and Tuesday with the trading deadline content, so the decision was made to hold off on publishing this list so as to drive fresh traffic to the site. And while that is a perfectly reasonable business decision, it wasn't what had been promised. I recommend being a little more careful in what you promise.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=17651#118176

Aug 01, 2012 08:41 AM
rating: 3
 
sandriola

How do you know that the list could have been posted on the site on Monday? Nothing in Joe's comment says the list would be posted as soon as the ebook is available. He said they'd post the list as soon as they could after the ebook was available. Maybe the ebook publisher demanded a 48 hour wait time to post content from the ebook. Maybe you're right and they made a business decision to hold off and thereby go back on Joe's word. We just don't know what the terms of the contract are, so to call out Joe over a comment he made seems a tad harsh, especially when he didn't promise a Monday release in that comment.

For the record, I'm playing devil's advocate. I don't care either way.

Aug 01, 2012 20:35 PM
rating: 4
 
Jivas
(649)

Good point! Obviously hadn't thought of that.

However, I'm not sure I'm responsible for considering every possible alternative to ensure 100% certainty. If I was wrong, I'd be happy for someone at BP to clarify, and I'll gladly apologize and retract my comment.

Aug 01, 2012 21:28 PM
rating: -1
 
delatopia

J'accuse! Who cares what the truth may be?

Aug 02, 2012 12:53 PM
rating: 1
 
MatternK

Thanks Kevin! I really can't believe that Davidson and Owings is ahead of Xander Bogaerts. Wow.

Aug 01, 2012 08:44 AM
rating: 0
 
bheikoop

Surprised to see two things:
1. Olt some 30 spots ahead of Adams. Same age, one level down, vastly worse strikeout numbers.
2. Where's Eddie Rosario? His power is down, however he seems to be getting positive reviews at second, and has improved his strikeout/walk rate.

Are there extended reports within the book?

Aug 01, 2012 08:48 AM
rating: 0
 
Bradley Ankrom

There are comments for each player in the book, yes.

Aug 01, 2012 08:54 AM
rating: 0
 
mrenick

Regarding Olt, I'd assume that his ability to play good defense at 3rd warrants a substantially higher rating than below average defense at first.

Aug 01, 2012 09:52 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Adams is a bad 1B, Olt is a wonderful 3B. HUGE different. Massive. I like Rosario, but not that much, and yes, there is a paragraph for each guy in the book.

Aug 01, 2012 10:21 AM
 
bheikoop

Thanks for the reply.

Aug 01, 2012 13:46 PM
rating: 0
 
maxjusttyped

I'm surprised KG has Owings ranked in the Top 50. Seems to me his approach issues (3.5% BB% to 24.3% K% in AA) will hold him back from being a productive offensive player.

Aug 01, 2012 09:02 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Approach is a big issue, but athletic shortstop with power is a bigger one.

Aug 01, 2012 10:21 AM
 
Peter7899

Here's the thing folks, if your guy is on the list. HE'S GOOD. Don't think he's getting slighted for being #34 instead of #14. Not a big enough difference to matter.

Aug 01, 2012 09:07 AM
rating: 4
 
timber

I realize I can get a free Kindle reader and install it on my computer, but I would really like to see this in some other format as well. Even a .pdf would be great.

Aug 01, 2012 09:12 AM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I understand, but understand where the publisher comes from too. Yes, there is hacking with Kindle products, but just a plain PDF invites piracy.

Aug 01, 2012 10:22 AM
 
Jivas
(649)

Also conspicuous by his absence, at least at the tail end of this list: Jedd Gyorko. KG has been pretty vocal about his belief in Gyorko's ability to hit. I'd bet $1 he's on the "just missed" list.

Aug 01, 2012 09:16 AM
rating: 3
 
Shaun P.
(676)

Not quite what you asked for, but I too would like the see the "just missed" list of the next 5 guys or so.

Aug 01, 2012 10:04 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I'll buy that for a dollar.

Aug 01, 2012 10:22 AM
 
pobothecat

How much does the "just missed" list cost?

Aug 01, 2012 11:16 AM
rating: 3
 
TravisReitsma

Hey Kevin did you sour a bit on Jake Marisnick?

Aug 01, 2012 09:19 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

A bit. I haven't killed him, just not top 50 for me.

Aug 01, 2012 10:23 AM
 
Gumby

Bonifacio is one guy you rank a lot higher than most other lists. He's on my radar - what excites you about him?

Aug 01, 2012 10:38 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

The advanced hit tool and that age. He barrels everything.

Aug 01, 2012 10:42 AM
 
Kreylix
(389)

I see you're not hot on Dan Straily, despite his great performance in the PCL. Are you seeing flaws?

Aug 01, 2012 10:44 AM
rating: -2
 
This guy

I'd say putting Straily in the top 50 is decent evidence that Kevin is, in fact, hot on him.

Aug 01, 2012 10:51 AM
rating: 12
 
Matt Commins

Seems like Straily is ready for the big leagues right now. Maybe he has a low ceiling and KG only projects to be a #3-4 (which isn't bad at all)? Danny Hultzen, who has a low floor and ceiling. projects to be a solid #3 is rated #27. Don't know if there's a strike against Straily?

I'll definitely pickup a copy so I can learn more.

Aug 01, 2012 17:59 PM
rating: 0
 
Kreylix
(389)

Ah, this is cool article on Straily today: http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120727&content_id=35679412&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&tcid=tw_share

Aug 01, 2012 17:45 PM
rating: 0
 
Gumby

Is Trevor Story close?

Aug 01, 2012 10:47 AM
rating: 2
 
aso5018

How close were Alen Hanson and Greg Polanco? And does Clay Holmes get any consideration for top 100?

Aug 01, 2012 11:09 AM
rating: 4
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Hanson and Polanco both very close. I prefer Polanco.

Aug 01, 2012 15:30 PM
 
Jivas
(649)

I find it amazing when people jump all over KG (or any of the other prominent prospect raters) when they provide a player ranking substantially different than the consensus. My *favorite* thing about these lists is to see which players are rated substantially different, and why. It's an indication that KG (or KLaw, etc.) has access to information about that player that we don't, and allows to evaluate whether maybe, just maybe, it's time for us to update our prior beliefs about the prospect.

Aug 01, 2012 11:11 AM
rating: 13
 
Andrew

Kind of surprised not to see Kolten Wong as it seem you're a pretty big fan. Just outside of 50? Either way, thanks for the update!

Aug 01, 2012 11:34 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I'm a huge fan of Kolten Wong, but there is some limit to his upside.

Aug 01, 2012 15:31 PM
 
mike1213

my man crush could not be greater on oscar taveras

not ashamed

Aug 01, 2012 11:52 AM
rating: 2
 
oakiegu007

Kevin, do people frequently confuse your rankings for fantasy rankings? I notice people rarely mention defense when they're complaining or commenting on a ranking.

Aug 01, 2012 11:59 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Russell A. Carleton
BP staff

How could you not include Stetson Allie? He totally went to the same high school that I did!

Aug 01, 2012 12:42 PM
 
Chucko

Kevin has a long track record of being anti-Stetson. He is in fact a Last Best West fan, but has yet to find a prospect whose parents are stu... awesome enough to name their child any such thing.

Aug 01, 2012 14:10 PM
rating: 3
 
timber

Darn, I wish "reply" worked. Kevin, if a .pdf is no good, then how about issuing it in plain old bound paper format? Call me a dinosaur, but I still prefer dead trees for reading.

Aug 01, 2012 13:03 PM
rating: 1
 
Chucko

Hence "Timber?" Regardless, I second your opinion.

Aug 01, 2012 14:05 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I totally understand that opinion. Again, this is an industry thing, and publishers are dipping their toes into unknown territory. To get a printed version of this out would have been a whole other ball of wax.

Aug 01, 2012 15:32 PM
 
LynchMob

Perhaps try HP MagCloud?

http://www.magcloud.com/

Aug 02, 2012 22:53 PM
rating: 0
 
delatopia

Do you really want to wait two more weeks for this information for the privilege of reading it on dead trees?

Aug 02, 2012 12:56 PM
rating: 1
 
Nils J

Hey KG, I saw you mention Max Kepler on twitter today. Just curious, what does he profile as? I saw he got some time at 1B recently, what's that all about? Thanks!

Aug 01, 2012 13:48 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I wouldn't read into that. Corner OF profile.

Aug 01, 2012 15:32 PM
 
gregarakaki

Profar - What's the anticipated ETA given you have Andrus and Kinsler at the Texas keystone?

Aug 01, 2012 13:51 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

We'll see. All sorts of scenarios can play out in one's head.

Aug 01, 2012 15:33 PM
 
110royal

Yordano Ventura?

Aug 01, 2012 15:35 PM
rating: -1
 
edragovic

Hey Kevin - What has happened to Julio Teheran? Who is the Braves 2nd best prospect(Bethancourt?)? Were they even close to the Top 50?

Aug 01, 2012 17:51 PM
rating: 0
 
AJ

Is there going to be an iPad edition, or Kindle only?

Aug 01, 2012 18:32 PM
rating: 0
 
sephrath

Kindle for iPad is free and works great.

Aug 01, 2012 19:02 PM
rating: 6
 
Richard Bergstrom
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I'm a little surprised Adams moved up into the Top 50 considering his ML debut wasn't that great.

In other news, I have three of the top 10 (Myers, d'Arnaud, Castellanos) on my AL Scoresheet team. *flexes for Ryan and John*

Aug 01, 2012 19:22 PM
rating: -5
 
joseconsuervo

Obviously not the place but how does Giolito compare to not only the other draft picks but current prospects in upside? Unless you're Strasburg or Harper I can't see someone being put on this list, but does this sort of comparison exist?

Aug 01, 2012 21:32 PM
rating: 0
 
mschroeder14

How close was Segura?

Aug 02, 2012 08:05 AM
rating: 0
 
Sean

Underappreciated bonus of having the list published here, even if it contains different content than the ebook: Kevin's been answering questions. Lots of value in that.

Aug 02, 2012 09:59 AM
rating: 5
 
Drew106

Has Matt Harvey's relative stock fallen or risen in the preceding 4 months?

Aug 02, 2012 13:02 PM
rating: 0
 
Drew106

I clearly should've used cntl+f prior to posting the comment, lol.

Aug 02, 2012 13:03 PM
rating: 1
 
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