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October 9, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

I’ve Been Thinking About...

by Jason Parks

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I’ve been thinking about….. prospect rankings. The time of year is near, and I’ve started to make calls and I’ve started to take notes and I’ve started to put the parts of the machine together. One of the reasons I was never keen on prospect ranking had more to do with the process than the finished product, which, I will admit, has value despite a shelf life that makes it obsolete before you can find comfort in it. The process is the real creature here, as the definition of prospect value is always up for debate, with some offering grand rewards for high ceilings, some for skill maturity, some rewarding proximity to the majors, and some ranking prospects based solely on statistical output. Because value is in the eye of the value beholder, there isn’t a wrong way to organize and rank prospects, as the subjective nature of the process keeps us tied to individual philosophies and category weights. But one shouldn’t assume that all rankings are therefore created equal, and that throwing darts onto a board with prospect faces is a better method of classification than picking up a phone and talking to the industry tasked with prospect evaluation.

Or is it? My eyes have been privy to a few teams’ internal prospect rankings, compiled by their scouts on the ground and their analysts in the office, and even though the process of the product is more complex, I’ve been just as bewildered looking at a team’s list as I have been looking at a Bleacher Report slideshow of the top prospects in the game. The truth is that I’m not sure how the new BP rankings will be received, and even though they will be thoroughly researched and examined, the weight I assign to any specific attribute or characteristic will be based on a personal preference, and as a result, the BP list that I put a bow on will look different than the one Nick would compile, or Jason, or Mark, or Chris, or anybody else who decided to make a list. That uniqueness is both valued and open to exposure, with the latter stemming from the aforementioned subjectivity of the process itself, as each list, regardless of author, is different and therefore inaccurate at some level when judged against the reader’s personal preferences and experiences.

Why do we like these things again? Oh, yes. We like to see inside the homes of our neighbors, partially out of curiosity, partially because we respect their tastes and are scared they have better taste than we do, and partially because we like to judge. It’s why I buy the BA handbook, or I read Mayo’s top 100, or Keith’s top 100. I respect the opinions and have a curiosity about the placements and explanation, but ultimately, it comes down to wanting to see which type of flooring they have in the kitchen.

I’ve been thinking about……CC Sabathia. As a prospect surveyor, I’m always on the hunt for the elusive “top of the rotation” talent, the arms that win Cy Young awards, pitch Game Ones, and put their teams on their back when it matters most. Almost mythical in lore thanks to the rarity of the skill set, for every ten that are cursed with the future label, does one actually live up to the standard?  

CC Sabathia might be the premier starter in the game, owner of all the attributes you require from an “ace,” with the hardware, the statistics, and legend all rolled into one package. I’ve never been a fan of the body, but the athleticism allows for repeatability and mechanical consistency. The arsenal is well above-average, with multiple fastball looks that feature quality velocity, movement, and location; the secondary arsenal is even better, with two breaking balls that he can throw for strikes, including a sharp slider with excellent tilt that is a money pitch. But the best weapon in the cache is a changeup that will fool even the best hitters in the game thanks to the deception created by throwing the pitch with fastball arm speed from the same delivery and same slot. It’s an 8 pitch on the 2/8 scale, and one of the reasons Sabathia is one of the few Loch Ness monsters of the pitching world.

Combine the repeatability and the arsenal with an intense competitive spirit and the focus to overcome setbacks and you have a special pitcher. Those who were fortunate enough to watch CC in action against the Orioles on Sunday night know exactly what a big game pitcher looks like. When the “name only” aces in the minors can step up on the October stage and show multiple plus-plus pitches, plus-plus command, and perform at a high level under the high pressure, then we can call them aces. Until then, it’s Sabathia, a few of his buddies, and a whole lot of wannabes.

I’ve been thinking about…..the delicate balance of beauty and sadness. It’s hard to find in this world. Tom Waits’ “Ol’ 55” is a good example of this balance. It’s so raw and earnest, and the intrinsic sadness in his vocal tone hits such an emotional chord that beauty just erupts from it. “And it's six in the morning, gave me no warning; I had to be on my way. Well there's trucks all a-passing me, and the lights are all flashing, I'm on my way home from your place.” Remarkable. It just crushes me.

I’ve been thinking about…..Josh Hamilton. I guess it’s easier to nominate a singular figure to play the leading role in a fall collapse than it is to assign blame to the entire team; after all, taking the time to assign specific weights and values to the performances of the final month, both in the dugout and on the field, can be a chore and, ultimately, not as fulfilling as casting just one villain.

As much as my rational side reminds me that it took an entire team to collapse and not just one man, I can’t help but find myself stuck on Josh Hamilton’s performance over the final month, curious as to what was really going on with the petulant star. The final numbers aren’t up to his MVP form, but you won’t hear many teams complaining about slash line, and after the first few months of the season, Hamilton looked like the best hitter to ever wear a uniform. But a summer slump and myriad strange excuses tarnished Hamilton’s shine, and, by the time the season had fallen off the edge of a cliff, Hamilton’s head seemed to be resting in the clouds above the field. I’ve been around Hamilton a lot over the years, and there has always been a strange aloofness about him. Whether that stems from his constant battle with sobriety, or his alienating faith, or his superstar status, I can’t speak to. But it’s not an uncommon sight in Surprise, AZ to see Hamilton standing alone on a vacant field, bat in hand, patrolling the empty grass of the outfield like it was the only patch of solace available to him. With the rest of the world existing around him, Hamilton would pace in the empty stadium, isolated from friends and fans alike, staring into the clouds, building walls around him with every isolated step. I never thought much of his solitary strolls, other than to acknowledge that “Hey, isn’t that Josh Hamilton walking around the outfield of an empty stadium with a bat in his hands? Cool. Most people don’t get to see that every day. Cool. Let’s get to the backfields.”

But the odd aloofness in Hamilton’s September/October game brought me back to those moments, where his foundation seemed planted elsewhere, and the focus that often defines a superstar was missing from the package. The sight of Hamilton lost in space troubled me, and not because he was the only player the Rangers needed to step up and shine when it mattered the most. I was troubled because he seemed troubled, either for professional reasons stemming from his relationship with the Rangers, or for personal reasons, which, for Hamilton, are anything but private affairs. From the uncharacteristic drops in the outfield, to the odd health excuses, to the distance he seemed to create with his coaches and teammates in the final battle, Hamilton looked like a man going through the motions, a man just playing the role of a baseball player. I get the feeling this story will continue to evolve as the former MVP tests the abusive waters of free agency, where every secret could become a weapon and every story will look to dig a little deeper than the last.

I’ve been thinking about the Josh Hamilton fairy tale, the redemption narrative that everybody attached to and sold like it was designed to solidify the belief in our own personal strength and struggle. The need to create heroes to help fortify our own vulnerabilities and failures is basic, but the consequence of such an action often sharpens the blade we turn on ourselves. When betrayed by the ones tasked with building us up, our mouths sting with the taste of blood and we search for retribution through sacrifice or indemnification, and the first to acquiesce to the charm of the story will be the first to ask for that story’s head. I can’t say I’m looking forward to the off-season, where Rangers fans will thirst for blood, and details of Hamilton’s demise could give it to them. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t curious to see if this fairy tale’s third act is penned by a sensational voice selling further redemption, or by Bret Easton Ellis, selling the reality of excess and despair.

Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

34 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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colonel

This is a great column. The portion about Josh Hamilton is one of the most soulful pieces of sports writing I have read in years. I may as well not even bother trying to think about anything else the rest of the day. Thank you.

Oct 09, 2012 05:04 AM
rating: 8
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I appreciate that. Many thanks.

Oct 09, 2012 08:08 AM
 
MBruner

Jason, as a life long Rangers fan for over 30 years, I'm very conflicted about the Josh Hamilton saga. Ever since he busted onto the scenes with the Rangers, he's been my favorite player. His story and his battles with life in general captured me. But during the past year or so, it has been very evident that the Rangers were planning on letting him go. I believe the final nail was when Johnny Narron left for the Brewers and it would not shock me at all to see Hamilton end up there. That being said, I think Hamilton leaving is for the best for both parties and I will continue to support Josh Hamilton and cheer for my favorite team.

Oct 09, 2012 08:34 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

I think part of the problem is Rangers fans are a bit spoiled and some of the Rangers writers for ESPN have a field day hacking away at Hamilton.

The guy's had a rough life, in part from his own doing. On the flipside, he _has_ had a lot of weird stuff happen to him. If I was a baseball player and a ball I threw into the stands killed someone, I'd seriously think about not playing baseball again. Compound that with Hamilton's battles with himself and attempts to maintain his faith and, yes, a troubled soul. He is the kind of guy who one day could say "enough is enough" and retire completely from baseball and I'm not sure I'd blame him either.

Oct 09, 2012 09:56 AM
rating: 3
 
Justice

All of the discussion on Hamilton raises two questions: (1) which teams will bid for his services? and (2) what should be his destination?

As for question #1, one could round up what Claude Rains' Captain Renault called the "usual suspects" -- the Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox, Giants, Tigers, Cubs, just to name a few. Any team with a decent revenue stream would certainly have some interest in Josh Hamilton. The amount of interest depends proportionally on that team's assessment of Hamilton's coping skills.

Those coping skills, I think, lay at the heart of the answer to question #2. Hamilton would be best served signing somewhere where a team needs him but where the off field stressors are minimized. The two teams that may be good landing places in this respect are the White Sox and Cardinals. Interestingly, both teams hired first year managers in 2012 and Robin Ventura and Mike Matheny brought a significant amount of calm to potentially chaotic situations. The White Sox, though, might be the slightly better fit of the two, only because the Chicago media tends to obsess about the Cubs and the Sox are able to fly under the radar somewhat.

As a final note, did anyone else ever wonder why so many characters in Casablanca -- like Captian Renault -- share names with cars?

Oct 10, 2012 13:26 PM
rating: 1
 
Richard Bergstrom

I could see something off the grid... Oakland might be an interesting fit for a low-key environment while having a DH. I don't quite see him being a good fit for the Braves (or any non-DH team) which is a common rumor that goes around.

As far as Casablanca goes, the movie came out before many of the cars did and it's associated with style, so a better question might be why so many cars are named after Casablanca.

Oct 10, 2012 15:23 PM
rating: 2
 
Justice

Oakland and Baltimore would also be good low-key, off the grid choices. Given Hamilton's history, the worst choices would be: (1) the Cubs, given the high number of day games (and, thus, free nights) and fan pressure for post-season success, (2) the Yankees, (3) the Mets, (4) the Dodgers and (5) the Angels. Given their size and their media markets, neither New York nor Los Angeles would be a good destination for Hamilton.

Oct 11, 2012 14:42 PM
rating: 0
 
grandslam28

Hey Jason
Almost all pitchers in the top 100 have the skills to become great, but the ones who seem to actually make it are the guys who are smart and know how to switch up location and types of pitches, and the guys who work hard, have watched tape on every batter they pitch against knowing the exact pitch they will throw a guy before he even comes to the plate. Will you base your rankings taking into affect the individuals brains & work ethic. Unless you have those two things it seems near impossible to succeed w/o an epic amount of talent.

Oct 09, 2012 05:35 AM
rating: -2
 
Behemoth

I think I completely disagree with this - not that being smart and working hard are bad, but that most pitchers in the top 100 or so have the skills to become great. I think that's completely untrue. Many of them have the skills to be a #3 or 4 starter or a good reliever. You could probably count the number of pitchers in the minors with good enough stuff to become an ace on your fingers.

Oct 09, 2012 05:46 AM
rating: 2
 
grandslam28

It happens a lot where these guys blow through their ceiling and the opposite is true too. What do you think Maddux's ceiling was? Probably the smartest pitcher ever, not to mention one of the hardest working.

Oct 09, 2012 05:54 AM
rating: -3
 
Behemoth

No, it's very rare for someone without elite stuff to become an ace. In most cases, such a pitcher would need to have 80 control. It simply isn't true to say that an average top 100 pitching prospect can become an ace based on intelligence and hard work.

Oct 09, 2012 06:25 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Maddux had a crazy high ceiling because he had very, very, very good stuff (bag of plus pitches), elite command, and a high baseball IQ. People forget that Maddux once had a very serious arsenal with easy cheese and razor sharp stuff. He wasn't always the cerebral first-command type that many remember. He had it all.

Oct 09, 2012 08:02 AM
 
Cromulent

Thank you for this. The myth of Maddux as nothing but brains and pitchability is out of control.

Oct 09, 2012 09:23 AM
rating: 6
 
Richard Bergstrom

On CNNSI they have JPGs of the high school scouting reports on Maddux.

Physical Description: "... tall...gangly...he should get bigger..."

Abilities: "... all his stuff has good movement...all from a natural delivery..."

Weaknesses: "... has to get ahead of the hitters more often..."

Summation and signability: "We can sign him but it will take some money..."


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/05/12/scoutingreport.maddux/index.html

Oct 10, 2012 09:14 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Here is a scouting truth: You can't accurately predict how a minor league pitcher will adjust at the major league level until he is there. You can look for signs of strength, fortitude, stuff, etc, but you can't forecast how the individual will handle the pressures of that highest level without knowing the individual. You just have to trust the stuff, the pitchability, and the makeup, with the latter being vital to the assimilation process at the majors.

Oct 09, 2012 07:48 AM
 
BP staff member Doug Thorburn
BP staff

Hear hear!

I think that the hypersensitivity of mechanical timing and sequencing is strongly linked to this - a dose of adrenalin or a rush of anxiety can throw the whole system out of whack.

As Jason has mentioned, watching a pitcher get lit for the first time is also a crucial stage of development, to see if he becomes phobic of challenging hitters. A pitcher who doesn't trust his stuff will never succeed in the bigs.



Oct 09, 2012 12:37 PM
 
Dodger300

At any given time there are not quite 400 pitchers in the Majors, and it would be a real stretch to say that even 20 of them, or about 5%, can be called aces.

You are proposing that there are 100 pitchers toiling in the minors who have the skills that 95% of the pitchers in the show can't produce. It simply is not convincing.

Oct 09, 2012 23:52 PM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

Explain "alienating faith," please. I've been around people who obnoxiously throw their particular brand of religiousness in my face and demand I agree with them or perish in a cloud of flaming sulfur. I've also been around extremely faithful people who are willing to live and let live.

Is Hamilton's faith alienating just because you disagree with the intensity of it? Or is he one of those pushy, noisy types that demands validation and conversion?

Just curious.

Oct 09, 2012 06:28 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I do disagree with the intensity of Hamilton's faith, but it's doesn't affect me on a daily basis, like it does with some of the people that live in his universe for 9 months a year. Locker rooms are communities, with diverse backgrounds and beliefs at every turn. It's not uncommon to see religious alienation, especially when you consider the different moralistic foundations involved.

On a larger platform, yes, some people don't want to hear about Jesus every third word and it turns them off. I'm one of those people, but as I said, it doesn't affect me like it might affect those that share a world with him for the majority of a year.

Oct 09, 2012 07:58 AM
 
CRP13

I agree with this completely, and I am what you would probably call "a person of faith." But I wouldn't shove it down your throat and wouldn't you to do it to me.

So no particular instances of Hamilton being overbearing prompted the description; just more of a general feeling that the guys around him weary of it after a while?

Oct 09, 2012 11:43 AM
rating: 0
 
jrmayne

I'm looking forward to your rankings - they should be Parksian and fun.

I disagree that the rankings are just kitchen appliances, a matter of preference. Once you have sample size, you can see who has done better over time; projections are and should be a serious business where results matter.

I'd warn you away from some of the frequent failure modes:

1. Certainty due to non-stat factors for hitters. One prospect list left Brett Lawrie completely off some time ago. They said because he was a redass (my word), he didn't deserve to be in the top 100+ of prospects. Ignore data at your peril; factoring in outside stuff is probably good, but overusing it is hazardous.

2. Fumbles. Your predecessor was a terrific writer and well-connected. But when you don't put Xander Bogaerts on your midseason Top 50, you've fumbled. KG took the position, as near as I could tell, that the critics were misguided Sox fans who needed more in their life. In the case of Bogaerts, the better defense would have been, "Crap, I fumbled."

3. Young pitcher bias. Young pitchers get hurt. Be cautious.

4. Failure to adequately account for hitter age. Hitter age is huge. (See: Jazayerli, R.) Xander is a better prospect than Travis d'Arnaud.

5. Velocity worries for lefties. Velocity worries for righties are completely legitimate; I was (I think) the first to publish evidence that you could improve projections by using velocity. Velocity worries for lefties are often overblown, though.

6. Small Sample Size Sucker Syndrome. You'll see a minor league player not-enough. Four PA's is not enough. (Pitching-wise, five innings might be enough to give you an idea of velo and movement; caution is warranted, but less caution.)

7. Surprise picks are cool! Except if you drift way far away from the pack. Then you're probably just wrong. You should have a *very* good reason to *seriously* deviate from the consensus. (e.g. Special knowledge you have; sharing cocaine with the player; being John Sickels and therefore usually right.)

Best of luck. Enjoy the crafting.

--JRM

Oct 09, 2012 07:06 AM
rating: -2
 
Behemoth

On the other hand, rankers need to have the courage of their convictions. KG made a number of calls that seemed odd to me - last year he ranked Hamilton ahead of Mesoraco, for example, which seemed to me to be a huge stretch. Evidence this year suggests he knows more about prospects than I do. It remains to be seen whether the same is true of Bogaerts or not (and I'd agree that he was far too low, and I didn't find Kevin's reasoning convincing), but I'd much rather have someone who has the guts to make their own rankings and live or die by them. The fact that someone with the knowledge of KG feels that Bogaerts is not a top 50 prospect is data in itself, and should maybe lead us to re-examine existing positions.

Oct 09, 2012 07:47 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

"....being John Sickels and therefore usually right."

I appreciated your thoughts until you drifted into propaganda.

Oct 09, 2012 07:49 AM
 
Mtn Jam

I thoroughly enjoyed this line.

Oct 09, 2012 08:36 AM
rating: 3
 
DeathSpeculum

+1

Oct 09, 2012 09:52 AM
rating: 1
 
delatopia

You make some good points, but your certainty and your conceit are remarkably off-putting.

Oct 09, 2012 10:45 AM
rating: 3
 
sungods7n

"....being John Sickels and therefore usually right."

If compiling and regurgitating the works of Callis, Simpson, Goldstein, Law, Badler and even the boarders on his site makes you "usually right" then I suppose that's true. It's good for a laugh but that's about it.

I'm sure Jason will pin "JRM's 7 laws for prospecting success" to his mirror and look at it every day this off-season.

Oct 09, 2012 13:16 PM
rating: 0
 
Sharky

Jason, will your top prospects ranking have more of a "real" baseball bent or a fantasy baseball orientation? They certainly serve different purposes, even though both audiences may enjoy different lists/rationales.

Oct 09, 2012 07:58 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

As "real" as I can get, but I will include details of the player and the forecast to help in the fantasy cause. They will not be geared towards fantasy players, but the info should be quite helpful in those pursuits.

Oct 09, 2012 08:00 AM
 
MaineSkin

How about 2 lists?
As Profar is infused by industry lust, I do not believe there is projection for 20 HR power or raw speed that will elevate to 20 SB.
Am I incorrect to have a man-crush on Yelich? LHH, above avg D, projectable power/speed, sexy CF, and oh, he's a Marlin? Give me Rosario and my 30 at C.

Oct 27, 2012 03:17 AM
rating: 0
 
BayCityM

Jason, you just crush it time and time again.

Oct 09, 2012 15:34 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

You are too kind.

Oct 09, 2012 16:45 PM
 
Tommy Fastball

Is it not too simple to ask for a prospect ranking with attributes ratings and weightings visible? If there is so much angst around how to weigh trade-offs between ceiling and risk, why not make the components known? I think this would be very useful to readers. It's not like most subscribers are adverse to poking around in excel.

Thanks for all the great stuff.

Oct 09, 2012 22:10 PM
rating: 1
 
jfranco77

I don't want to speak for Jason, but I don't think you can put numbers on them.

Let's say Bubba Starling has a 7 peak (out of 8), a 40% chance of getting there, and his 2012 stats (age/park adjusted, whatever) are a 3/8.

Let's say Kolten Wong has a 6 peak, a 70% chance of getting there, and 6 stats.

Even if you come up with a way to weight those 3 numbers, I don't think that tells you everything. Even if you did an OFP and both of them came out to 58/80, there is still something intangible that you need to use when picking between them.

You're right that it will be different for everyone. I might put more weight on Wong's chances of making it. It would be cool to see what "my" rankings would be if I changed that weight.

But Jason knows a lot more than I do, and I want him to do the final weighting, even if I won't always agree with it, and even if there's always something intangible in the numbers.

Oct 11, 2012 10:57 AM
rating: 0
 
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