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November 29, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Prospects

by Jason Parks

State of the Farm:It's a love that lasts forever, it's a love that has no past. Don't let me down, don't let me down.”

Prospect rankings primer

 The Top Ten

  1. IF Xander Bogaerts
  2. CF Jackie Bradley
  3. RHP Matt Barnes
  4. RHP Allen Webster
  5. C Blake Swihart
  6. 3B Garin Cecchini
  7. LHP Henry Owens
  8. OF Bryce Brentz
  9. SS Jose Iglesias
  10.  LHP Brian Johnson

1. Xander Bogaerts
Position: IF
DOB: 10/01/1992
Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2009, Aruba
2012 Stats: .302/.378/.505 at High-A Salem (104 games); .326/.351/.598 at Double-A Portland (23 games)
The Tools: 6+ hit; 6+ power potential; 6 arm

What Happened in 2012: You mean, besides hitting for power and average in the Carolina League before moving up to Double-A as a teenager and continuing the offensive onslaught by ripping 15 extra-base hits in only 23 games?

Strengths: Simple, fluid swing mechanics; very natural barrel-to-ball relationship; projects to hit for both plus power and batting average; shows plus-plus bat speed; shows ability to drive the ball all over the park; can square velocity; arm is plus; plays game with feel and instincts; solid glove; could have above-average defensive profile at third base.

Weaknesses: Aggressive in the box; soft and spinning can get him off-balance; will need to expand pitch appetite (fastball eyes); exaggerated swing plane limits stay in the zone; good athlete, but lacks plus speed; physical maturation process could leave speed below-average; limited range at shortstop; fielding actions can be stiff; not ideal profile for middle-of-the-diamond.

Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star

Explanation of Risk: High risk; excellent makeup, but lofty ceiling; still lots of developmental space between present/future.

Fantasy Future: At his peak, Bogaerts could approach a .300 average and 30-plus bombs a year; bat will play anywhere on the diamond, but most likely will find a home at third base.

The Year Ahead: It’s hard to imagine Bogaerts taking another step forward in 2013, but it’s entirely possible. His swing is full of grace, and the power that flows from the hit tool could make him a very special player if everything goes according to plan. He still needs refinement in all phases of the game, and an extended stay in Double-A could expose some of the weaknesses in his offensive approach. While its possible that he remains at shortstop going forward, his defensive profile isn’t ideal at the position at the highest level, and as the 6’3’’ 175-lb. 20-year-old continues to grow into his body, his average-at-best speed will tick down and his range at the position will prove to be inadequate. Regardless, his bat has middle-of-the-order potential, and could make him an all-star if he reaches his ceiling.

Major league ETA: 2013

2. Jackie Bradley
Position: CF
DOB: 04/19/1990
Height/Weight: 5’10’’ 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2011 draft, University of South Carolina (Columbia, SC)
2012 Stats: .359/.480/.526 at High-A Salem (67 games); .271/.373/.437 at Double-A Portland (61 games)
The Tools: 7 all-around defensive profile; 5+ hit tool

What Happened in 2012: In his first full-season, Bradley crushed in High-A, and after a promotion to Double-A, continued to show a mature approach to all phases of the game.

Strengths: Special baseball instincts; plus glove; strong arm; average speed, but preternatural feel for position; moves before ball is put in play; precise routes and angles; plus-plus overall profile at premium position; advanced approach at the plate; good pitch-recognition skills; knows his pitch pocket and attacks; solid-average hit tool; tough out.

Weaknesses: Lacks plus speed; relies on first-step quickness and instincts for range; game power plays below-average; most likely a down-the-lineup offensive threat.

Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; Bradley is a natural baseball player with now skills; only risk is full development of bat.

Fantasy Future: Should make enough solid contact to hit for average; good on-base skills; potential for doubles, but most likely a single-digit home run threat; could steal some bases despite average speed.

The Year Ahead: Bradley isn’t long for the minors, with a glove that is ready for the bright lights. The bat isn’t special and could use more reps in the minors, but he’s a mature talent that should be ready for a major-league assignment at some point in 2013. Bradley can make every play in center, and he can do so without making it look like a big production. He has Gold Glove potential at the position, and as long as the bat can play in the average range, he’s a first-division talent.

Major league ETA: 2013

3. Matt Barnes
Position: RHP
DOB: 06/17/1990
Height/Weight: 6’4’’ 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2011 draft, University of Connecticut (Storrs, CT)
2012 Stats: 0.34 ERA (26.2 IP, 12 H, 42 K, 4 BB) at Low-A Greenville; 3.58 ERA (93.0 IP, 85 H, 91K, 25 BB) at High-A Salem.
The Tools: 7 FB; 5+ CB; 5 CH

What Happened in 2012: The 19th overall pick in 2011 made his professional debut, and looked like the steal of draft, overwhelming the competition in Low-A before a jump to High-A, where his performance was still strong despite tiring some down the stretch.

Strengths: Good size/strength; repeatable delivery; plus-plus fastball; pitch will routinely work 92-95 and touch higher; has shown ability to work as high as 94 mph with consistency; movement is easy plus, with excellent vertical action; command of offering is sharp; can work low in the zone and create steep plane; premium pitch; curveball works in mid-70s with heavy break; solid-average (present) that can get to plus; changeup took big developmental step forward; plays as average offering; plus command profile

Weaknesses: Can be too fastball dependent; curveball lacks consistency; doesn’t finish pitch and loses rotation; changeup can get too firm and lack quality action.

Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2 starter

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; inherent risk with pitchers; needs more secondary development.

Fantasy Future: Has the body/delivery to log innings; has the stuff to miss bats; has the command to limit hard contact/walks; could develop into high wins/high strikeout starter at the major-league level.

The Year Ahead: Barnes is ready for Double-A, where the utility of his secondary offerings will be put to the test. Even without big jumps from the companion pitches, the fastball is good enough to ride all the way to the majors, as it features not only plus-plus velocity, but also movement and command, making it a near elite offering.

Major league ETA: 2013

4. Allen Webster
Position: RHP
DOB: 02/10/1990
Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 18th round, 2008 draft (Dodgers), McMichael High School (Madison, NC)
2012 Stats: 3.55 ERA (121.2 IP, 120 H, 117 K, 57 BB) at Double-A Chattanooga; 8.00 ERA (9 IP. 13 H, 12 K, 4 BB) at Double-A Portland
The Tools: 6+ FB; 6+ CH; 5 SL

What Happened in 2012: After a repeat of the Double-A level saw Webster make developmental progress, the Dodgers included the promising right-hander in a package to the Red Sox in exchange for half of their roster.

Strengths: Prototypical size for a starter; fastball is easy plus, routinely working in the mid-90s with good downward movement; ball is extremely difficult to lift; changeup is near plus-plus; heavily pronated offering that is effective to both lefties/righties; can miss bats and induce weak contact; slider emerged as solid-average offering, working in the 83-87 range with two-plane break.

Weaknesses: Command is below-average and limits full-function of the arsenal; loses his delivery; slips under breaking ball; curveball is fringe-average; could end up in the bullpen without command progress.

Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; iffy command is limiting, but arsenal features two plus (to plus-plus) now pitches; has impact potential at major-league level.

Fantasy Future: Has the potential to be a workhorse arm in a major-league rotation, with two bat-missing pitches and an improving slider that will help complete the arsenal.

The Year Ahead: Webster should slot into the Triple-A rotation, where the Red Sox can get an extended look at the soon to be 23-year-old right-hander. His overall command is the biggest factor in his future success, as the raw stuff is good enough to play effectively wild, but has the potential to thrive with more command/control refinement. He could be a dominating late-inning presence, but with a starter’s arsenal and upside, his future role looks brighter in the rotation. Webster is another arm that should taste the major leagues in 2013.

Major league ETA: 2013

5. Blake Swihart
Position: C
DOB: 04/03/1992
Height/Weight: 6’1’’ 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: B/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2011 draft, V Sue Cleveland High School (Rio Rancho, NM)
2012 Stats: .262/.307/.395 at Low-A Greenville (92 games)
The Tools: Plus arm; 5+ potential hit; 5 potential power

What Happened in 2012: Swihart made the big jump from the complex level to full-season ball, where his development took positive steps despite not producing a slash line that tickles the fancy.

Strengths: Plus athlete; arm is strong; good catch/throw skills; shows quality actions behind the plate; nice swing from both sides of the plate; shows bat speed; potential to drive balls; hands work well; some power potential.

Weaknesses: Still raw as a receiver; body needs to gain physical strength/lower-half strength; approach needs work; still learning what pitches he can handle; big talent jump from facing high-school pitching to Sally League pitching; long developmental road ahead/slow to the show.

Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player

Explanation of Risk: high risk; big gap between present and future; difficult to develop behind the plate and develop solid-avg to plus bat.

Fantasy Future: At maturity, could hit ~.270-plus with 15-plus home runs from a premium defensive position, giving him excellent overall value.

The Year Ahead: Swihart is just getting started as a player, and the developmental process can get ugly before the results start to look pretty, especially for a catcher. He possesses a fluid swing from both sides of the plate and some hittability, with a profile that should produce some power down the line. But it’s a tough assignment to take steps forward at a demanding position while taking steps forward at the plate. Some patience is required here, but the payoff could be well worth it, as Swihart has all the necessary ingredients to develop into an above-average player.

Major league ETA: 2016

6. Garin Cecchini
Position: 3B
DOB: 04/20/1991
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: 4th round, 2010 draft, Alfred M. Barbe High School (Lake Charles, LA)
2012 Stats: .305/.394/.433 at Low-A Greenville (118 games)
The Tools: 5 hit; 5+ power potential; 6 arm

What Happened in 2012: Finally healthy, Cecchini showed a promising offensive attack at the full-season level, hitting over.300 with 38 doubles.

Strengths: Baseball rat; good size/strength; fluid swing; hips and hands work very well; line-drive stroke; shows good bat control; good approach; potential in the profile for 5+ game power; arm is 6; excellent overall feel for the game; game speed plays up with instincts.

Weaknesses: Struggles against arm-side pitching; will expand zone and is susceptible to off-speed offerings; offensive tools lack crazy projection; defense is suspect at third base; stiff actions/hard hands; limited range; fringe 5 run; bat first profile.

Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player

Explanation of Risk: High risk; offense needs to carry profile; big grade jumps necessary; big baseball makeup

Fantasy Future: Bat-first third baseman with potential for batting average, 20+ home runs, lots of doubles, and some stolen base ability because of instincts/game awareness.

The Year Ahead: Cecchini will move to High-A, where he needs to continue to tighten his approach and improve against sequence. He can rake against right-handed pitching, and has the necessary bat speed to turn back quality velocity, so he should continue to make hard contact and produce batting average. The power exists, but could take time to manifest itself into over-the-fence production. If the bat steps up, the soon-to-be 22 year-old could finish the year in Double-A, which is the level that separates the men from the boys.

Major league ETA: 2015

7. Henry Owens
Position: LHP
DOB: 07/21/1992
Height/Weight: 6’6’’ 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2011 draft, Edison High School (Huntington Beach, CA)
2012 Stats: 4.87 ERA (101.2 IP, 100 H, 130 K, 47 BB) at Low-A Greenville
The Tools: Plus FB; 5+ CB

What Happened in 2012: Owens made his professional debut by jumping straight to full-season ball, where the projectable lefty missed bats but also struggled with his command and secondary utility.

Strengths: Size and length that can’t be taught; fastball works upper-80s to low-90s, touching 94; good arm-side movement and deception in the delivery helps pitch play up; curveball with multiple looks, but flashes plus potential in the 75-76 range with good depth;

Weaknesses: Lots of moving parts limit present command; struggles to stay over the ball/finish his pitches; frame needs to add strength; changeup is below-average at present; deliberate and without much deception; some questions about maturity level.

Overall Future Potential: High 5; no. 3 starter

Explanation of Risk: High risk; arsenal projection not a given; secondary pitches and command need grade jump.

Fantasy Future: Has the size and projectable strength to log innings; profiles as innings-eater with solid-average arsenal from the left-side.

The Year Ahead: Owens will move to High-A, where the projectable southpaw can prove the believers right by showing arsenal progression, with enhanced fastball velocity that he can hold throughout games/season and improved secondary offerings. The doubters aren’t as sold on the projection, despite the lengthy body, and without easy plus raw stuff and questionable pitchability, Owens might stumble without an arsenal boost.

Major league ETA: 2015

8. Bryce Brentz
Position: OF
DOB: 12/30/1988
Height/Weight: 6’0’’ 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2010 draft, Middle Tennessee State University (Murfreesboro, TN)
2012 Stats: .296/.355/.478 at Double-A Portland (122 games); .118/.167/.118 at Triple-A Pawtucket (5 games)
The Tools: 6 arm; 6 raw power

What Happened in 2012: After a big 2011 campaign, Brentz continued to hit well after the promotion to Double-A, where his aggressive approach didn’t suffocate his ability to for power and average.

Strengths: Big raw power; torque-heavy swing that produces above-average bat speed; makes good contact despite aggressive approach and vicious hacks; good game power; plus arm in the outfield

Weaknesses: Aggressive approach leaves him vulnerable to off-speed offerings; legit questions about pitch-recognition ability; power plays, but hit tool doesn’t offer same projection; fringe run.

Overall Future Potential: 5; second-division player

Explanation of Risk: High risk; approach and pitch-recognition issues could spoil the power in the bat.

Fantasy Future: Prototypical right field profile; has legit over-the-fence power; hit tool utility and approach will decide how much it plays in games; could hit 25-plus.

The Year Ahead: Brentz avoided exploitation at the Double-A level despite a suspect approach, but he might not fare as well against the craftier arms in Triple-A. Brentz can drive the baseball, but refining his approach will be a must against better pitching. Once the book is out, arms with a plan will be able to exploit the aggressiveness with sequence, and if the pitch-recognition skills aren’t up to the task, Brentz could see his prospect status shrink and his progress halt in the upper minors.

Major league ETA: 2013

9. Jose Iglesias
Position: SS
DOB: 01/05/1990
Height/Weight: 5’11’’ 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, Cuba, 2009
2012 Stats: .266/.318/.306 at Triple-A Pawtucket (88 games); .118/.200/.191 at major league level (25 games)
The Tools: Elite defensive tools; 5+ run

What Happened in 2012: After an inconsistent Triple-A season, Iglesias failed the offensive test at the major-league level, hitting an anemic .118 and only reaching base at a 20 percent clip.

Strengths: Massive defensive skills; wizard; 7 range, with instincts and a quick first-step; big arm; pillow hands; silky smooth actions; flare for the big play; 8 total defensive package; above-average run; some bat control and hittability; smart player.

Weaknesses: Lacks strength in swing; doesn’t drive the ball; chewed up by secondary stuff; struggles to turn around velocity; doesn’t project as quality hitter; no power.

Overall Future Potential: 5; second-0division regular

Explanation of Risk: High risk; so many questions about the bat; glove is ready

Fantasy Future: Is there a fantasy category for slick plays at shortstop? There should be. That’s about all Iglesias is going to produce; some contact is possible; low average; no power; some game speed.

The Year Ahead: Iglesias’s offensive production often takes unfair criticism because of the elite nature and major league readiness of his defense. Despite playing in Cuba, Iglesias only has ~1000 minor league plate appearance, and yet has already been pushed to the upper minors with some major league looks. He lacks strength and the approach isn’t great, but with more seasoning and developmental patience, he should be able to hit down the lineup on a team without high offensive expectations from the position. He is unlikely to ever hit for a high average or make a pitcher sweat, but his glove is so good that he can provide value to a team with only a minimal offensive presence. He should get another chance at the major league level at some point in 2013.

Major league ETA: 2011

10. Brian Johnson
Position: LHP
DOB: 12/07/1990
Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 225 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2012 draft, University of Florida (Gainesville, FL)
2012 Stats: 0.00 ERA (5.2 IP, 2 H, 4 K, 1BB)
The Tools: Plus FB; 5 potential CB; 5 CH

What Happened in 2012: After a long collegiate season, Johnson dipped his toes into the professional waters, logging just over five innings before taking a line drive to the face, fracturing his orbital bone and effectively ending his season.

Strengths: Strong face; lively low-90s fastball that can touch higher; good arm-side movement and feel for command; curveball shows above-average potential with tight rotation and some depth; changeup should play as a 5; good pitchability

Weaknesses: Lacks elite stuff; changeup can get too firm in the mid-80s; lacks big action; uses slider in addition to CB; slurvy offering that several sources called a show pitch; body looks a little doughy which could affect mechanics/adjustments; limited upside.

Overall Future Potential: 5; no. 4 starter

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; Johnson will pitch the 2013 season at age 22; arsenal needs to refine, but shows playable now stuff; good overall feel for pitching.

Fantasy Future: Profiles best a back-end starter with a chance for more if secondary pitches grade up. Has size and strength, so should be able to take the ball every fifth day and log innings; won’t miss a great deal of bats at highest level.

The Year Ahead: Johnson’s arsenal has some room to grow, but the ultimate ceiling is limited. The fastball is the only above-average offering at present, but the curve could get there soon, giving him the foundation for a strong arsenal. Johnson knows his craft, and lefties with at least three pitches and strike-throwing ability have a way of sticking around the game and offering value. Johnson should be set to move quickly, but the development and refinement of his secondary arsenal will set the pace.

Major league ETA: 2014

Prospects on the Rise

1.     CF Manuel Margot: 18-year-old Dominican center fielder that projects to stay at the position for the foreseeable future and has a short, quick swing with some power potential. After a very impressive professional debut in the Dominican Summer League, Margot will look to continue the trend stateside in 2013, which could help push his prospect status into the top 10.

2.     SS Jose Vinicio: Latin American bonus baby from the 2009 class, Vinicio spent two years at the complex level before making the jump to full-season ball in 2012. The 19-year-old has legit shortstop skills and projects to stay up-the-middle as he develops. The bat is immature at present, but as Vinicio adds strength and refines his approach, he has the type of bat speed to make hard contact and become a solid all-around talent.

3.     Deven Marrero: The 24th overall selection in the 2012 draft, Marrero was viewed by many as the best college shortstop available in the class, and a player that had the all-around polish to move quickly through a system. While his bat might lack a sexy ceiling, he should hit enough to stay in a lineup, and his above-average profile on defense should make a major-league regular for a long time.

Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2013

1.     RHP Chris Carpenter: Former hard-throwing Cubs starter turned hard-throwing Cubs reliever turned hard-throwing Red Sox reliever is ready to make an impact at the major-league level in 2013. With elite fastball velocity and below-average command, Carpenter should be able to induce nervous feet in the box, and if the command comes around and the slider finds some consistency, he should be able to offer more than just an unpredictable arm that can throw 100 mph.

2.     LHP Chris Hernandez: The Former Miami starter might lack average fastball velocity, but he makes up for that with quality movement, command, and the ability to mix his offerings to keep the hitters off-balance. His margin for error is small, and his ultimate role is yet to be determined, but with a cutting fastball and plus pitchability, he might be able to offer a contribution to the major-league team in 2013.

3.     RHP Brandon Workman: Down the queue for a major league look, former Longhorns starter Brandon Workman has the type of mature frame and arsenal to force the issue at some point in ’13. Like Hernandez, his ultimate role has yet to be determined, but with a low-90s fastball that can touch higher and a plus cutter that can get in the kitchen of left-handed hitters, Workman could be a good candidate for the bullpen.

Top 10 Talents 25 and Younger (born 4/1/1987 or later)

  1. Xander Bogaerts
  2. Will Middlebrooks
  3. Jackie Bradley
  4. Matt Barnes
  5. Rubby De La Rosa
  6. Allen Webster
  7. Blake Swihart
  8. Felix Doubront
  9. Garin Cecchini
  10. Henry Owens

After two straight disappointing seasons that have ended in turmoil and the late August blockbuster trade that saw Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, and Carl Crawford shipped to Los Angeles, the organization has entered a retooling phase focused on a combination of more disciplined acquisitions and an infusion of younger talent. The crown jewel of the system, Xander Bogaerts’ star shines bright, highlighted by his impact bat potential that will play at any spot on the diamond. Bogaerts’ easy bat speed and lightning-quick wrists enable him to consistently barrel offerings up with authority to all fields. The whispers of “future All-Star at the hot corner” continue to get louder. Third baseman Will Middlebrooks continued to build off of the development strides he made in 2011 to push towards fulfilling his potential as an above-average regular during his peak and enters this upcoming season as the everyday starter after showing he was ready for the challenge before his rookie season ended via a broken hand. Will both Middlebrooks and Bogaerts be able to coexist in the same lineup down the road? It’s a good potential “problem” for an organization to have. 

Jackie Bradley and Matt Barnes, both 2011 draft picks, quickly established themselves within the ranks. Bradley projects as a top-of-the-order hitting center fielder and very likely replacement for Jacoby Ellsbury should Ellsbury move on, while Barnes shows the makings of a potential solid third starter with continued refinement to the crispness of his stuff, capable of competing for a rotation spot in 2014. The key pieces of the trade with the Dodgers, Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster, instantly upgraded the organization’s young pitching depth. Both could find themselves cutting their teeth against the AL East as mid-rotation starters or high-leverage relievers in the coming seasons. Blake Swihart, Garin Cecchini, and Henry Owens presently are possible glimpses into the future a handful of seasons from now. All three possess the talent to round into major leaguers, but each have key development needs to continue to track during their progression up the ranks. Lefty Felix Doubront profiles as a back-end starter or later-inning reliever should other talent or performance push him into that role. It’s taken a bit for the pipeline to rebound from trades made in prior offseasons, but there are some first-division major leaguers on the way in the near future and a developing secondary wave with the potential to reinforce or be used in deals for areas of need. —Chris Mellen    

Last year's Red Sox rankings

Special thanks to Nick Faleris, Mark Anderson, and Chris Mellen for their input and influence on this list.

Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

56 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

amazin_mess

This is not a top 15 farm, right? It seems like the weakest Boston's farm has been in years.

Nov 29, 2012 05:26 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I think the top four are very strong; thins after that, but some of the depth have legit ceilings and potential to develop. I think its a good (not great) system.

Nov 29, 2012 06:06 AM
 
rrvwmr

Great work JP. Question about the sum of parts... What makes a likely thirdbaseman like Bogaerts grade as a 7 when his individual grades are 6+ hit, 6+ power, 6 arm?

Nov 29, 2012 06:00 AM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Because how many players at the major league level have actualized 6+ hit, 6+ power? In combination with the ability to play on the left-side of the infield, I think that creates an all-star ceiling. It's not a common package.

Nov 29, 2012 06:04 AM
 
hyprvypr

Bogaerts at SS and Middleton at 3B? If the Tigers can pull of Peralta and Cabrera you'd think two younger guys with better D(for now), could as well and enjoy the offensive boost...

Nov 29, 2012 06:59 AM
rating: 0
 
RotoLando

I'm not sure Kate Middleton has the arm strength to stick at third, but her makeup is fantastic.

Nov 29, 2012 07:11 AM
rating: 29
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Sure. That could happen. Middlebrooks has a quality glove. It wouldn't be ideal, especially from the standpoint of range, but it would inject the bats into the lineup. From a Red Sox fan perspective, I would hope Iglesias eventually steps up and claims that role. His defense makes the team better, but his bat isn't going to carry any of the weight. If Iglesias makes it work, Bogaerts has the athleticism and arm to handle a move to RF.

Nov 29, 2012 07:13 AM
 
Behemoth

I can't see Iglesias keeping Bogaerts out the lineup if the Red Sox feel that Bogaerts can play a passable short - even if it's 40-45 grade. To be honest, I don't see a first division club running out a guy who hits an empty .250 year after year however good his defence is.

Nov 29, 2012 07:33 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I think it depends on the offensive structure of the team. If you can get above-average offense elsewhere in the line-up, especially from spots normally viewed as deficient offensive roles (catcher, center), you could put a .230 hitter in the 9-hole if the value of his glove is that legit. I think premium defense up the middle is under-appreciated in a game that often celebrates runs over run prevention. Iglesias might not produce runs, but he would help prevent them.

Nov 29, 2012 07:39 AM
 
Behemoth

I think all of that is true. I still don't think the Red Sox will settle for such limited offensive production from a regular player - I can't think of any examples of such an extremely defense oriented player holding down a job for a contending team.

Nov 29, 2012 07:54 AM
rating: 0
 
Nater1177

Starting SS on the 2012 WS champs looks awfully similar to a .250 hitting SS with little to no offensive value and a good glove.

Nov 29, 2012 08:20 AM
rating: 1
 
Behemoth

It's quite possible that he might be the Red Sox SS for a year or two. I just don't see someone like that having a starting job for a contending club for five or ten years, and that applies to Crawford as well.

Nov 29, 2012 08:31 AM
rating: 0
 
danteswitness

Brendan Ryan held down SS for the Cardinals for a couple of years. That's the only recent one to pop into my head. Even guys like Concepcion were nearly average hitters.

Nov 29, 2012 11:10 AM
rating: 1
 
MikeMcD

Why isn't Ryan Kalish in top ten under twenty-five?

Nov 29, 2012 07:41 AM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Not good enough?

Nov 29, 2012 07:45 AM
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

The great Chris Mellen created the U25 list, so he is better source to ask. But judging by the players on the list, Kalish falls a bit short, at least for me.

Nov 29, 2012 07:47 AM
 
BP staff member Chris Mellen
BP staff

Ryan Kalish hasn't played much baseball since 2010, dealing with rehabbing from shoulder and neck injuries. That's a two year gap in development for a player that was beginning to make the transition to the major league level. Pretty huge in terms of missed time in my opinion. I was a big backer and believer in Kalish prior to the injuries as the people familiar may remember, but presently I saw better and firmer talents to include in that list.

Nov 29, 2012 08:48 AM
 
dduncan

Interested to hear what maturity issues Henry Owens has that could affect his progress. Doesn't work hard at his craft? Attitude issues? Hopefully those can work out with age. I'm worried about the depth of high ceiling arms (#2s or #3s).

Nov 29, 2012 07:48 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I don't think its a makeup issue; rather, it's most likely maturity related, which is a very subjective observation to begin with. The expectations placed on these kids are very high, and when teenagers exhibit teenaged behavior, they are often criticized because of their professional [read: adult] occupation.But that's the nature of the beast and the reports have to reflect that.

Nov 29, 2012 07:59 AM
 
John Douglass

I love the phrase "pitch appetite."

Nov 29, 2012 07:49 AM
rating: 4
 
Dave Holgado

"Fastball eyes" also another great add to the lexicon. A quick google reveals that it's only been used twice before, both times by the Professor himself (in describing Tigers 3B Francisco Martinez and Rangers SS Luis Marte). Love it.

Nov 29, 2012 14:06 PM
rating: 4
 
philly

Jason

Anything worth salvaging with Ranaudo? He hasn't been healthy and/oor maintained his stuff so maybe a shot at being a reliever down the line?

Nov 29, 2012 07:49 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I think it all starts with health. It's hard to paint a picture of a player unless you get to see a functioning product. I'd like to say that a healthy Ranaudo is a pitcher that can contribute at the highest level, but in what form I can't say. I would wager that its in relief, but I'd like to see what it looks like at 100% before putting him in that box.

Nov 29, 2012 07:53 AM
 
johnorpheus

Bogaerts' profile looks huge to me, potential top 10 prospect in all of baseball?

Nov 29, 2012 07:53 AM
rating: 0
 
Behemoth

Curious with Bogaerts if there's still any suggestion that he may have to move further down the defensive spectrum than third (I get that the Sox may move him to the OF if Middlebrooks settles in as the long term solution at third, but that's to get the bat into the lineup)? Last year there were even some suggestions that he could end up as a first baseman.

Nov 29, 2012 07:56 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I think he can stay on the left-side of the infield, at least from a scouting perspective, with 3B being the best fit for his skill-set. That's not to say he couldn't hang at SS for a few more years, even if the quality isn't high. He might eventually end up in RF, but that's a destination born from organizational need rather than a tool-based deficiency.

Nov 29, 2012 08:02 AM
 
Behemoth

Thanks. I appreciate the detailed responses.

Nov 29, 2012 08:21 AM
rating: 0
 
ttt

Any thoughts on Brandon Jacobs? Seemed to take a step backwards in high A.

Nov 29, 2012 08:09 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Legit power, but difficult profile (LF) and the swing has a lot of miss. Without a tighter approach, the upper minors will chew him up. Pitchers with a plan can already get him to expand and follow their lead.

Nov 29, 2012 08:20 AM
 
BP staff member Chris Mellen
BP staff

Brandon Jacobs dealt with a hand injury for a good chunk of the season that cut into some of his progress. He spent time on the DL and then when he came back the word was things weren't going to be 100% right until the off-season.

There was some impact from that for sure as when I saw him in High-A during the season the swing wasn't as explosive or loose as Spring Training. As Jason mentioned, the pitch recognition and approach also looked like they were going to be tested heavily at the level when I spent my time at camp this past year. On the very weak side with sharper breaking balls and narrowing down his strike zone.

And, that showed in the follow-up scouting looks in Carolina League. Those aspects of his offensive game have some ways to go and there's a gap he needs to bridge, especially with the tough jump to Double-A in front of him. I like Jacobs' power and approach to the game of baseball. The left field only profile and questions on how much far further he can sharpen those mentioned development needs are big factors right now. The ones behind or limited in potential progress in those aspects can really get exposed in the Eastern League.

Nov 29, 2012 09:13 AM
 
Nater1177

Jason,

At the end of the series, will there an overall ranking of the systems compared to each other? More a curiousity question than a 'I'd really like to see it' one.

Nov 29, 2012 08:23 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Yes. We will produce a comprehensive ranking of all the systems in baseball after we finish will all the individual team breakdowns.

Nov 29, 2012 08:26 AM
 
John Carter

So, Jerry Sands doesn't make the 25-and-under top 10, so conceivably Middlebrooks could be the firstbaseman of the future with Bogaerts at third and Inglesias at shortstop.

Although, Sands is no longer a rookie, he is still a prospect in that he hasn't established himself yet. He is certainly better than what he's produced so far in the majors, right? I would love to see your "potential" and a "year ahead" report on Sands.

Nov 29, 2012 09:29 AM
rating: 0
 
John Carter

This is a question for Colin - assuming he has the greater expertise on the Red Sox and/or Dodgers.

Nov 29, 2012 09:35 AM
rating: 0
 
John Carter

Jason, what's so magical about 6'3" pitchers? My impression is that if everything else is the same, the taller the pitcher the longer he will take to fully harness his command, but the greater potential down the road. Is that wrong?

Nov 29, 2012 09:33 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

It depends on the pitcher. Personally, I prefer tall, athletic pitchers because of the leverage involved.

Nov 29, 2012 09:56 AM
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

Pitching is a really difficult thing to do. It's tough to find someone with the coordination/athleticism to repeat their mechanics such that they can execute MLB quality pitches with MLB quality control/command/consistency.

It's also really difficult to maintain all of that stuff when you are throwing every fifth day via high effort performances over the course of six months. That means in addition to being athletic and possessing solid control over your body, you need to be physical.

6'3", loosely, tends to give you a physical body that has not grown so big as to be unwieldy. You'll find tall pitchers that are coordinated enough to thrive at the MLB level, but the longer the limbs generally the more difficult it is for someone to control them with precision. We see examples of this in other sports, such as the NBA, where a more athletic, and coordinated "big body" can run roughshot over their less coordinated brethren. That's part of what makes Lebron such a dominant force, right?

It's an oversimplification, but one that is partially based in science and partially based on historical precedent.

Nov 29, 2012 10:44 AM
 
rwinter

I know the ETA is just a guess (with outside factors playing large roles), but do you really see 5 of those top prospects getting significant playing time in the majors this year? The Barnes and Brentz ETA's surprised me a bit

Nov 29, 2012 09:45 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

ETA doesn't suggest when a prospect will get significant playing time in the majors; rather, it indicates when a player will arrive at the level. I can see both Barnes and Brentz getting cups of coffee in '13.

Nov 29, 2012 09:53 AM
 
mikebuetow

In the player profile, Bradley is called "most likely a down-the-lineup offensive threat," but the summary says he "projects as a top-of-the-order hitting center fielder."

Can that apparent discrepancy be chalked up to the difference between the assessment of his skills and how the team would likely use him?

Nov 29, 2012 09:46 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I think it has more to do with two different writers and two different evaluations. Chris Melln produced the U25 list/paragraph. His personal evaluation of Bradley's bat might be different than the one expressed in the player report. In all fairness, the difference is slight, as an optimistic assessment of his bat could make him a top-of-the-order type, while the more conservative view would push him down the order a bit. It could go either way.

Nov 29, 2012 09:59 AM
 
Shaun P.
(676)

Not entirely germane, but I'm curious so . . . who is the better defender at SS, Iglesias or Hechavarria? Who is more likely to be able to hit enough to stick at SS for a couple of years at least? Does your answer change if you factor in the home park (Fenway = hitters' haven, Marlins Park = pitcher's park, I think)?

Nov 29, 2012 10:24 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I'd take Iglesias. I think Hechavarria has the better chance to hit, but I think Iglesias is the better defensive shortstop.

Nov 29, 2012 10:37 AM
 
Matt Commins

Random question; best overall future potential: Will Middlebrooks, Brett Lawrie or Mike Moustakas?

Nov 29, 2012 18:27 PM
rating: 0
 
jfranco77

I'd go Moose (glove, power), Lawrie (basically Middlebrooks with a better glove), then Middlebrooks.

Nov 30, 2012 08:12 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Defensively, I'd take MIddlebrooks over Lawrie. I never felt comfortable with the metrics that said he was a near-elite defender. He's solid, but spastic, and I have a high opinion of Middlebrooks.

Nov 30, 2012 08:44 AM
 
BP staff member Chris Mellen
BP staff

I see Middlebrooks' defense rounding into above-average at the major league level. It isn't there yet, but he has the instincts and feel for the position, along with plenty of arm and has maintained the athleticsm as the body went through a lot of physical maturation from 18 to 22 years old. The defense should be one of the strengths of his game in the bigs.

Nov 30, 2012 09:07 AM
 
smallflowers

Awesome work JP & co. Surprised to see Middlebrooks so high on the under-25, especially given the top 4 in the system. I assume that means his OFP is roughly considered a 6/first division starter?

Nov 29, 2012 18:44 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Indeed.

Nov 29, 2012 19:02 PM
 
IamRalpho

Late to the party, but was Keury De la Cruz close to the list at all? Any thoughts about him on his future?

Nov 30, 2012 13:29 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Chris Mellen
BP staff

Keury De La Cruz was interesting this season. His body filled out over the off-season and he packed on more muscle. He was always a sturdy body, but noticeably more muscular when I saw him in spring training, especially in the upper body. It helped his bat speed and the thump he got behind the ball, but also pushed him out of center field. With the added bulk in the upper body, he was more stiff and rigid defensively, while his arm wasn't as good as it had been in 2011 when I scouted him in Lowell often.

De La Cruz presently has a very wide strike zone and expands often. He was able to barrel up a lot offerings against the more inexperienced pitching of the South Atlantic League, but progression here is key when he jumps up to the next level. There is a lot of upper cut and coming up under the ball in the swing too. It limits the zones he has for making good contact. He's a Top 20 guy in my mind.

The future potential presently is along the line of a fourth outfielder for me, but there's room for some progression with that and he is a player I expect to continue to zone in heavily on in terms of where the progress is going when seeing him this coming season.

Dec 02, 2012 08:18 AM
 
cnote66

Was hopeful to see Doubront mentioned a little better then back of rotation or late inning reliever. LH SP with 167 K in 161 IP are rare -- I think he faded down the stretch, but this was the most IP he had ever thrown. Maybe splitting hairs, but I was thinking mid-rotation guy for many years.

Nov 30, 2012 13:51 PM
rating: 0
 
jackweiland

Just a heads up, Jackie Bradley is listed as the top prospect on the BP main page.

Dec 01, 2012 06:38 AM
rating: 0
 
bcransom

And I could access the entire list without a BP account. odd

Dec 01, 2012 15:30 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dave Pease
BP staff
(2)

This one was free. Please tell your friends to come look. You'll need a Premium subscription for most of them. Thanks.

Dec 01, 2012 21:21 PM
 
Zach Brady

Strong face. Can't stop laughing

Dec 22, 2012 11:01 AM
rating: -2
 
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