John Patterson and Juan Cruz: good riddance, or highway robbery? The Astros drop another roadblock in Morgan Ensburg’s way. Itinerant pitcher Bruce Chen’s destiny likely includes fitting for a few more major league uniforms. All this and more in Friday’s Transaction Analysis.
Bobby Jenks: The next Goose Gossage? Bobby Estalella finds a job. Tony La Russa finds a new broken toy in Tony Womack. Syracuse could give the Devil Rays a good battle. These and other pontifications in today’s jam-packed Transaction Analysis.
The allegedly cash-strapped D-Backs give Brandon Webb peace of mind. Calvin Pickering has another summer in Omaha ahead. The Brewers will take their time with J.J. Hardy. Wiki Gonzalez will get a closer look at Mount Rainier. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
The Royals have an intriguing second-base battle cooking in the minors. The Yankees aren’t rushing to promote farmhand pitchers. The Padres could be short a shortstop at Triple-A. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
Dave Nilsson is back in the bigs, this time with the Braves. Damaso Marte and Joe Nathan would get extra bucks from the White Sox and Twins depending on their managers’ whims. Geoff Jenkins’ three-year deal with the Brewers may become another Milwaukee millstone. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
One of the objectives of the Basics series is to sort of rehash everything that is very basic: what we know now, and how did we get to the point that we know it? Filling in some of the back-story of what’s up in terms of player analysis serves a few important purposes. First, it helps eradicate some of the potential barriers anyone might have to analysis: take a look, and you that this isn’t all rocket science. If even a non-math person and ex-Teamster like me can get it or get some of it, I’m willing to bet that everybody else can too.
But if you like the flavor and you want more, there’s a really important second goal the Basics series can achieve if you’re new to this. Or, if you’re already familiar with this sort of stuff, the series serves as a general reminder to those of us who think we know it all. That second lesson is: When in doubt, don’t quit early.
Whether you call the line of inquiry about baseball that we’re involved in here “performance analysis” or “sabermetrics” or snarky and insufferable, one of the perils of working within this community is that it’s stocked with bright people devising ever-better mousetraps to define player value statistically, particularly offensive value. As a result, you run the risk of getting lost in the inevitable alphabet soup of different newfangled metrics. And rather than try to sort through them all, it’s perhaps easier to settle for a figure that some people refer to as simple and elegant: OPS, or On-base percentage Plus Slugging percentage. And perhaps worse yet, if you’re an analyst, it’s probably easiest to use OPS, because it’s the easiest to explain. As we mentioned earlier in the series, OPS winds up doing a pretty decent job of mimicking a description of overall offensive value. So it works, right? And if it works, and it’s simple, why not use it as a gateway stat to introduce fans to the broader, more diverse world of statistical analysis?
The Red Sox are in trouble if Johnny Damon succumbs to injury. The Cubs open the vault for Kerry Wood and Derrek Lee. The Devil Rays take Josh Hamilton off the 40-man roster as he works through off-field problems. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
The Yankees pick up Travis Lee, while cutting Aaron Boone loose. The Blue Jays sell Pete Walker to the Yokohama Baystars. And the Devil Rays place Seth McClung on the 60-day DL. All this a much more exciting news from around the league in your Friday edition of Transaction Analysis.
The Dodgers’ hiring of Paul DePodesta inspires a partial conversion. The Pirates sign Raul Mondesi to ensure that Craig Wilson again has nowhere to play. Damon Minor returns to San Francisco–or at least Fresno. Albert Pujols cracks nine figures in St. Louis. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
The Cubs should have applied their cash toward a hitter, not Greg Maddux. The Dodgers save $3 million on a closer. The Doug Mientkiewicz signing could yet work out for the Twins. The Rangers sign Alan Mills, ensuring a World Series berth. These and other news, notes, and Kahrlisms in today’s Transaction Analysis.
John Burkett says goodbye. The Twins win their arbitration case against Johan Santana. The A’s sign Chad Bradford for another year. Oh, yeah…and apparently the Yankees and Rangers traded infielders or something.
The Orioles have too many lefties making too much money. The Expos give BP’s favorite first baseman of Italian descent since Roberto Petagine a shot at a steady job. The Mets inexplicably sign James Baldwin. The Devil Rays inexplicably sign Fred McGriff. These and other news, notes, and Kahrlisms as Transaction Analysis resumes its regular schedule.
The Braves strike NRI gold with Russell Branyan. The Astros do what they need to do to compete in the NL Central. Everything you ever wanted to read about Eric Karros. The Padres address their chasm in center. These and other news, notes, and Kahrlisms in today’s Transaction Analysis.
So the Yankees, trapped in their pro wrestling gotterdammerung plot line with the Red Sox, apparently have to go tit-for-tat in the wake of the Schilling deal. That’s not to diminish what they’ve achieved. Schilling might be more famous, and he might own Vazquez on a wargaming table. He’s also older, more fragile, and less likely to give his team 35 starts. In contrast, Vazquez is in his prime. At 27, he has endured and survived a heavy workload, and he’s far removed from an age when heavy workloads are sources of really desperate concern (take a look at Mark Prior’s workload if you want to be alarmed). It’s especially intriguing to see that Nate Silver’s latest PECOTA projections for him rank Vazquez as just about the most promising pitcher for value in the season to come. Then there’s Nick Johnson. We’ve touted Johnson for a very long time now, and we’ve seen that potential barely shine through a litany of worrying hand and wrist injuries. Nevertheless, he’s only 25, and his precocious progress through the Yankees chain deserves to be remembered for the promise it hinted at. It’s one of the reasons why the new PECOTA projections see him as the sort of player with tremendous breakout potential. Anybody who can reasonably project to hitting as well as Todd Helton without Coors Field getting an assist looks pretty valuable. There’s irony that among his closest comps, you’ll find a young Jason Giambi, but the blend of possibility and risk is perhaps best highlighted by the two most-comparable hitters: Darrell Evans (who went on to enjoy a career that deserves a lot more Hall of Fame consideration than he got) and Mike Epstein (whose fame endures for all sorts of reasons, some but unfortunately not all of them good).
The White Sox will regret hiring Ozzie Guillen. The Astros’ Brad Ausmus and Jose Vizcaino: how to flush $4 million down the toilet. The A’s and Jays hook up for yet another trade. The Phillies won’t solve their bullpen problem with Billy Wagner alone. The Mariners look poised for a fall. These and other news and notes in this edition of Transaction Analysis.
Mark Grace steps out of the clubhouse and into the broadcast booth. Ron Gardenhire is offered a two-year extension. Barry Larkin continues his tenure in Cincinnati. Mike Lowell is activated for the playoffs. And the Pirates aquire Cory Stewart to complete the Brian Giles trade. All this and much more news from around the league in the most recent edition of Transaction Analysis.