Keith Woolner takes a second look at OBP, righting a big wrong in the process.
First, I want to apologize for the long absence of AFTH from the web site. In addition to the usual off-season book-writing duties, I spent the winter relocating to the east coast from California as well as welcoming a new baby to the family. But I’m getting settled now, and hope to be writing AFTH and doing other research again in between feedings and diaper changes.
Soon after yesterday’s installment of “Aim For The Head” appeared on the web site, my e-mail starting getting reader comments.
Based solely on offense, expected runs created – given the scenario that your total starting lineup team OPS was fixed at a certain number. Would you be better off building a team with a few superstars, balanced off with some truly horrible players or a team of mostly mediocre players?
This week’s question comes from Sam Grossman, who writes:
What percentage of “quality starts” results in Ws, Ls and NDs for the starting pitcher? What about Ws and Ls for the team?
Has this been consistent across time (effect of bullpens, etc.)?
Few baseball arguments elicit more debates than comparing players across eras. No matter how much the numbers may suggest otherwise, a fan growing up in the 60s may never be persuaded that Barry Bonds deserves to be ranked alongside Hank Aaron. Likewise, a fan growing up in the 90s may never fully grasp the greatness…
This week’s question comes from Chuck Valenches, who writes:
I am the broadcaster for the Pirates’ Triple-A club, the Nashville Sounds. We do a promotion where fans are encouraged to write in and “Ask the Sounds”…. One question we received we cannot find an answer for.
Q. Has there ever been a game in which both teams scored at least one run in every inning, and when was the last time it happened?
Many people brought up the point that strikeouts can only kick in at three pitches, and walks at four pitches.
The last Aim for the Head, about how offensive production varies with the number of pitches in the plate appearance, generated a lot of questions. Let’s dig into the mailbag: Ted Frank wrote: Excellent article. One thing missing, though. Of course BA is going to go down from the second pitch through the sixth; the…
Looking at which length of a plate appearance favors the hitter, the pitcher, or neither
This week’s question comes from Don Coffin, who asks: I was watching a game on TV the other day and wondered whether a longer at-bat favors the hitter, in terms of its final outcome. More specifically, how do things like BA/OBP/SLG differ with the number of pitches in an at-bat? Thanks for the great question,…
Analyzing PAP (Part One) Analyzing PAP (Part Two) PAP^3 is the name for the new system for measuring pitcher abuse via pitch counts introduced in Baseball Prospectus 2001. Though it shares a similar name and goal with a system previously introduced by Rany Jazayerli, it was developed independently, and replaces the older system. The two…
During a May 14 chat session on ESPN.com, Bill James referred to my research on catcher’s game-calling and pitcher-handling, and his criticism of it. The research he refers to consists primarily of an article from Baseball Prospectus 1999 entitled "Field General or Backstop?" and a followup posted here on the BP Web site called "Catching…
Before claiming any success for any measure in predicting injury, we must fundamentally recognize that any PAP-style metric will be positively correlated with raw pitch counts. Pitchers with high pitch count totals will tend to have high PAP totals. If a PAP function provides no additional insight into which pitchers will be injured that pitch count totals alone, there is no reason to add the added complexity of a PAP system to our sabermetric arsenal.