Welcome to Part 2 of our look at the importance of hot starts. If you haven’t already, read Part 1 first. We’ll wait for you to get back.
Last time, I looked at how teams fared at season’s end after starting the season with a particular record, varying the data by looking at starts of varying lengths. While I pointed out general trends in the data (as well as the exceptions that proved the rule), I did not sum up the data concisely into a single, coherent formula to predict a team’s final record. That’s what today’s article is about. In Part 3–yes, there will be a Part 3–I want to examine how the interaction between a team’s record at the start of the season, and its record the previous season, affects its final winning percentage.
Today, I want to look at the relevance of a hot start on a team’s overall winning record. (I know–where do I get these ideas?)
As I write this, the aliens who have collectively taken over the Kansas City Royals’ entire roster are 14-3, the best start in team history. Not to be outdone, the Yankees are 15-3 and have outhomered their opponents this year by the miniscule margin of 35 to 4, which is a stat that deserves its own DTN article, if not its own episode of The X-Files. And both teams are trying to keep up with the Giants, who after Sunday’s loss are 15-3 despite outscoring their opponents by the downright-reasonable margin of just 107 to 81.
The topic of the meaningfulness of hot starts has intrigued analysts since the Tigers’ remarkable 35-5 start in 1984 persuaded Bill James to look at the subject in his 1985 Abstract. One of the major problems with this sort of data analysis is just getting the data for the day-by-day standings for every day in baseball history. James, working by hand, only had data from 1965 to 1984, but then he did not have the services of the incomparable, indispensable David W. Smith (the W. stands for “Support Project Retrosheet!”), who graciously provided me with just the data I needed.
To wrap up our series on the merits of the four-man rotation, let’s look at some of the ancillary benefits of making the switch:
The four-man rotation simplifies a starter’s between-start schedule. Most teams have their starters throw on the side once between starts, but no one really knows whether it’s better to throw on the second day after a start, or the third. It’s not even clear whether starters should throw only once. In Atlanta, Leo Mazzone has had continued success doing things his way: he has his starters throw twice on the side between starts instead of once. (He does this because he feels it gives the starter the same increased sharpness that comes from working on three days’ rest.)
Today, we’ll pick up last week’s discussion where we left off. (Take a look at last week’s article if you haven’t already.) To answer the question I ended last week’s column with, it is very important to understand that my support of the four-man rotation is not, in any way, mutually exclusive with my belief…
The five-man rotation is a failure. I don’t mean to be overly dramatic here. I’m not trying to frame ‘failure’ in a pejorative sense, the way we might describe Tony Muser, or airport security pre-9/11, or Bud Selig’s ceaseless efforts to acquire a human soul. I use the term "failure" in a purely literal sense….
Continuing our discussion from last week on how to build a team at Coors Field, this time, from the run-prevention side.
Continuing our discussion from last week on how to build a team at Coors Field, this time, from the run-prevention side. In Baseball Prospectus 2002, Joe Sheehan wrote: "If putting balls in play is the best approach for hitters in Denver, then it makes sense for the Rockies to favor pitchers who strike out a…
This year marks the tenth season of major league baseball in Denver. It is
clear now that none of us fully understood what we were getting ourselves into
when we allowed Rocky Mountain thin air to be unleashed on our national pastime.
Nine years and literally thousands of hanging curveballs, home runs, and
destroyed pitcher psyches later, we’re still trying to wrap our hands around the
conundrum that is baseball at altitude.
(And before you mention the word “humidor”, consider that with the recent run of
explosive offense at Coors Field, the Rockies and their opponents have combined
to score 11.74 runs per home game, compared to 8.61 runs per game on the road –
a 36% increase. It may no longer be the best hitters’ park of all-time – Coors
Field increased run scoring by 58% from 1999 to 2001 – but it’s still the best
hitters’ park of our generation.)
Nothing spoils us like greatness. It is so easy to take for granted the magnificence of once-in-a-lifetime talents like Barry Bonds or Alex Rodriguez, precisely because their greatness produces a consistency that lulls us into becoming accustomed to their exploits.
Greatness isn’t a quality reserved for those who take the field. The most dominant baseball figure of the past 25 years hasn’t played in the major leagues since 1969. It has been 12 years since the playoffs started without a team managed by Bobby Cox, and he appears to be in no hurry to end that streak.
Nothing spoils us like greatness. It is so easy to take for granted the magnificence of once-in-a-lifetime talents like Barry Bonds or Alex Rodriguez, precisely because their greatness produces a consistency that lulls us into becoming accustomed to their exploits. Greatness isn’t a quality reserved for those who take the field. The most dominant baseball…
When a team exceeds expectations to the degree that the Expos has, it’s usually quite difficult to credit this phenomenon on a single aspect of the team’s play. In this particular instance, however, it’s dead simple. As Rob Neyer has waxed eloquent on two separate occasions, it’s all about the walks.
Last week, the Montreal Expos lost six games in a row. Before the season began, such an event would not have been at all surprising. What would have been surprising is that, despite the losing streak, the Expos are still over .500 and just a game out of first place. When a team exceeds expectations…
There was little joy in watching the final, desperate days of the Tony Muser Era arrive at their inevitable conclusion. Nor was there any sense of anger or frustration from knowing how much opportunity has been wasted while we waited for the axe to fall.
Finally. There was little joy in watching the final, desperate days of the Tony Muser Era arrive at their inevitable conclusion. Nor was there any sense of anger or frustration from knowing how much opportunity has been wasted while we waited for the axe to fall. There was only relief. Relief, and closure. The players…
Four months ago, Adam Pettyjohn was expected to compete for a spot in the Tigers’ rotation. He can be forgiven for failing to live up to those expectations. You see, four months ago, Pettyjohn weighed more than Kate Winslet. Four months ago, he had a colon.
Four months ago, Adam Pettyjohn was expected to compete for a spot in the Tigers’ rotation. He can be forgiven for failing to live up to those expectations. You see, four months ago, Pettyjohn weighed more than Kate Winslet. Four months ago, he had a colon. In January, Pettyjohn was suddenly struck by ulcerative colitis,…