Andy Pettitte ’04 = Jason Schmidt ’03. Pettitte has a small but significant tear in his flexor tendon. While it will need surgical repair, it could wait until the end of the season. Pettitte may end up on the DL, but it’s more likely that he’ll simply pitch to pain tolerance. If Pettitte can go five innings or so, he’ll have some value. However, with Pettitte’s contract, the Astros will have to make a decision on when their season is over, minimizing the stress on the lefty’s arm. The Astros are also worried that Wade Miller might miss the rest of the season. An August return is unrealistic, but by September, there may be no reason to come back. The Astros are taking a look at Paul Wilson, sending scouts to watch his last start. They need the rotation filler.
So much for the bullpen. After Tim Hudson came out of his simulated game, Oakland’s plan for him got serious. While he will still have a start at Triple-A, Hudson is expected to come back at near full-strength at the middle of next week. The A’s will limit his pitch count a bit, but Hudson will be expected to do what every starting pitcher is expected to do–win.
As part of BP’s wall-to-wall Trade Deadline coverage, Baseball Prospectus Radio will go two hours live on Saturday, focusing almost completely on trades. We have GMs, agents, and writers at the ready, as well as several BP authors. It should be one heck of a good time, so be sure to tune in.
Powered by a loud, clear voice, on to the injuries:
The Jason Giambi Watch is approaching ridiculous levels, as the media has seized onto the ramblings of Giambi’s personal trainer, Bob Alejo, who is close to the first baseman, but hardly a reliable source of medical information. While amebiasis is a serious condition, it is seldom fatal when treated. There are still other test-results pending, so there are still open questions about Giambi’s condition. He’s yet to go on the DL, but inside sources say that the Yankees are looking at their options if Giambi has to be shut down–one of which could be Doug Mientkiewicz.
Just how badly injured is Andy Pettitte this time? No worse than the last, according to Houston sources, who are also saying that it appears to be another sprained ligament, further weakening the elbow’s structure. Pettitte appears to be damaged goods, making the Yankees decision to let him walk away look all that much smarter. The Astros also hope to get Wade Miller back sometime in August. Miller has been able to play long-toss, but he is not ready to begin a rehab assignment.
Lots of e-mailers asked about reports that Jason Giambi was tested for cancer last week. Giambi’s been poked, prodded, and had every test known to man conducted over the last few weeks, including ones for cancer. As yet, there is still no solid diagnosis, post-parasitic. Since giardia is easily cleared up, and the body recovers quickly, the symptoms intransigence is puzzling. At some point, we may have to ask whether Giambi is dealing with a condition or merely has lost the skills necessary to play baseball at this level.
Bone marrow edema isn’t a diagnosis heard every day. In baseball, it’s now a singular event, afflicting Magglio Ordonez, who just returned from knee surgery. Also called “transient osteoporosis,” the edema is not just a short-term problem for the Sox’ outfielder, it’s also bad in the long-term; BME is a predictor of serious arthritis, gait imbalances, and increased risk for fractures near the affected bones. It’s not good for the White Sox, for Ordonez, or Ordonez’s agent, but it’s not life-threatening, as some have feared. It could be managed in a way that could allow Ordonez back on the field, but as there is nothing with which to compare this, I have no way of putting a timeline on it.
Any time a player changes positions, there is an adjustment period where the new position increases the risk of injury slightly. Most of the time, the risk has a negligible increase. Some shifts down the defensive scale actually inherently reduce risk, such as a move from the middle infield to a corner. It seems that Mike Piazza hit one of those inflection points where a decreased positional risk met the awkward adjustment phase with a side order of bad luck. Piazza was struck on the glove by a running player. While it was a routine play, Piazza sprained his wrist and could end up on the DL. Early X-rays were negative but there was pain and swelling. Mets medical staff will know more tomorrow once the swelling begins to subside and they can accurately assess tendon and ligament damage. In the meantime, phenom David Wright will come up to the big club, with Ty Wigginton moving to first base.
It was mostly good news across town as the Yankees dodged a bullet. Derek Jeter was hit on the hand by a 93-mph pitch, but escaped with only a numb hand. X-rays were negative, but the Yanks will likely give their captain at least a game off to be safe. In Triple-A Columbus, Kevin Brown pitched adequately, giving up five hits and two runs (including a homer by Henri Stanley) in four innings. He’s unlikely to be ready for his slot on Sunday, so expect another start, probably again with Columbus. In the meantime, the Yankees will rack up frequent flyer miles between the Bronx and Columbus while looking for help on the trade market.
Today’s UTK is about burning questions. Emphasis: burning questions, not burning sensations. UTK stands for “Under the Knife,” not “Urinary Tract Konnection.” Lately everyone who writes me has the same questions. Below, I try my best to answer them.
Powered by Discovery HD Theater, on to your questions about the injuries…
According to the team–and confirmed through multiple sources, in order to prove to the many skeptics that there’s no smokescreen–Prior has no problems with his UCL or ulnar nerve. Instead, a bone scan showed an inflammation near the elbow. In essence, Prior has shin splints in his elbow area. The technical term is periostitis, but let’s stick with something we can all say.
Prior will not go to the DL, and based on his lack of soreness Monday after a bullpen session on Sunday, he could start on Tuesday, his regular turn. It’s much more likely that the Cubs will be cautious and let Glendon Rusch take the start. So what does this mean for Prior and the Cubs? I simply don’t know. None of my best sources had seen this type of injury before, and more than one questioned the diagnosis. Simply put, we’re in uncharted territory, and the best guide will be Mark Prior himself. Many are already questioning his toughness, but that’s the same wrong-headed locker room machismo that’s cost the game so many players in the past.
Sure, I’ll admit my biases. Like Michael Moore and Fox News, you know where I stand: Injuries are often the difference maker. Look back to last year, when Oakland would have been a different team with Mark Mulder. Or think of St. Louis a few years ago, when when Scott Rolen’s freak accident killed the Redbirds’ attack. There are a million other examples of games lost because of players lost. After talent, health is the most important asset a team possesses.
Instead of doing full breakdowns on each team–something time and carpal tunnel precludes–I’ll focus on the team’s overall health, as well as key injuries that help determine who holds the health advantage heading down the stretch. I’ll use a grade system, rather than my typical traffic light. The rankings are just my impressions and are purely subjective, based on past and current health, the likelihood of problematic future injuries, and the whimsical nature of my late-night muse. Teams are listed in the order they stood in their divisions at the All-Star Break.
It’s really not even funny anymore. Sure, I’ve made my share of jokes at Ken Griffey’s expense, but just at the stage where he was finally getting some recognition for how good his career has been and revitalizing his present, his hamstring gave way. It wasn’t a particularly taxing play, but it doesn’t take much to split his chronically weakened hamstrings. I’d feel worse for Griffey if I hadn’t seen him stretching before a recent game. Like too many other players, he seemed to coast through the warm-ups. I’m not sure if there are other stretches he does, perhaps in the training room, but just the example he set didn’t help. Forget the kids in the stands, the kids on his team were watching and emulating him. Griffey is likely out a month, and with his condition, it could stretch longer. In his absence, the Reds will find out what Wily Mo Pena can do (two homers yesterday brought his season total up to 10, his season line to .270/.314/.491…PECOTA’s had him pretty well pegged so far). They’ll also see if John Vander Wal can come back from ACL surgery in just six months.
I’ve said it before and I’m sure I’ll say it again, but what the Yankees buy with all that money is depth. Sure, you look at second base or the front of their bullpen and it may not look like it, but when injuries happen, that’s when the depth shows up. With Mike Mussina trying to pitch on three days rest and stressing his elbow, the Yanks could reach down and pull up a rejuvenated Orlando Hernandez. He played the part of “Good Contreras” today, going five strong innings. He only needs to make a cameo start before heading to the pen since Kevin Brown should make his rehab start on Thursday, then come back to the rotation next week. The Yankees have been extremely conservative bringing Brown back, so he should be ready once he does re-appear. Mussina, on the other hand, is a bit more concerning. Elbow soreness is never a good thing, but team sources sound worried that this is Mussina finally admitting something that’s been going on all season. Expect a DL stint in hopes that rest and treatment will dig up the Mussina that they need come playoff time.
Coming and going, the White Sox are still ruled by the disabled list. Frank Thomas isn’t going to do his best Curt Schilling imitation; bone chips in his ankle are likely to put him on a surgeon’s table. The surgery, while minor, would keep him out for six-to-eight weeks. In essence, the Sox swap Thomas for Magglio Ordonez. While the Sox had hoped to keep Ordonez on the shelf through the ASB, the Thomas injury forced their hand. Slipping a bit lately, the Sox are still in the thick of the AL Central. A healthy lineup down the stretch is a must to keep up with the deep Twins.
For weeks, I’ve been watching a dip in the velocity of Brad Penny. Actually, it’s his pitches that are losing velocity, but there’s finally a clue as to why. While most have assumed that his frayed labrum was finally voicing it’s disapproval or that he was going through a dead arm period, the reason is simpler. Penny has had an infected cut on his knee. His leg drive has been cut and the repeatability of his motion–never a strength–has also been impacted. Cuts, like bones, heal on a predicatable schedule, so this is a good time to buy low on Penny.
There was some speculation that Eric Chavez could be back as early as Thursday, but it was unclear if he’d joined the team prior to the game. It’s widely expected that Chavez will be back in the lineup on Friday, picking up where he left off when his hand was broken. Chavez will be a boost to the A’s offense, but the pitching staff is where the problems have been most pronounced. Tim Hudson’s oblique problems could pose problems down the stretch, and the A’s can ill afford to further tax their weak bullpen.
At the halfway point of the season, it’s hard to find a player who isn’t sore and fatigued, a pitcher who doesn’t have some problem, or a team that isn’t affected by its health. One of the more interesting questions I’ve been asked was by a national baseball writer who asked if teams have “health inertia”–do teams that have been healthy tend to stay healthy or is there a regression to the mean? With only limited data to work with, there doesn’t appear to be much of a pattern. Over three-year periods, “luck” tends to even out, but over the course of a season, it follows a pattern that looks more like roulette than anything else. There are patterns, but they’re not usually meaningful. Instead, it appears that a focus on prevention and risk management is the way to minimize the loss of playing time.
The Yankees always are a bit different. There’s now some discussion that George Steinbrenner would rather not see his players taking part in the All-Star Game unless they’re fully healthy, but with Gary Sheffield and Jason Giambi, that definitely isn’t the case. Sheffield has been playing with a damaged shoulder, while Giambi has been dealing with a plethora of problems, including parasites. I’m still confused why Giambi was selected for the Home Run Derby, but don’t be surprised to see pressure on them to play. That said, the Yankees don’t normally succumb to pressure, even from the Office of the Commissioner. It’s hard to argue that any player, especially one dealing with injuries, wouldn’t be better served with extra rest.
It’s hard for me to deal with pitchers like Josh Beckett. They are the most frustrating type of talent. It’s not the pitch counts, the mechanics, or anything in the normal realm of sports medicine that could keep his gift on the mound. I only hope he ends up closer to fellow Texans Nolan Ryan and Kerry Wood than to someone like David Clyde. Beckett has what is being called a skin tear. Rather than the normal pocket of skin that fills with fluid, the skin just came right off. Beckett reported that this is the worst problem he’s had and the first time he’s bled from blister-related problems. Expect this DL stint to be long, along the lines of Jeremy Affeldt last season.
Speaking of Kerry Wood, his rehab start in Triple-A Iowa went extremely well. He combined with Sergio Mitre, who got an odd four-inning save, for an Iowa win. Wood went five innings, striking out four, and giving up two singles. Wood now heads back to Wrigley and seems ready to start on Sunday. Ryan Dempster will make his second rehab start in Iowa tomorrow.
I’ve been trying and I can’t find anyone that has a career path like Phil Nevin’s. He’s gone from first-round pick to first-round bust to journeyman to star to injury-prone in the space of a decade. He’s been traded three times for a collection of warm bodies. Even PECOTA’s comps list can’t find anything quite like Nevin.
He’s down, once again, and headed for surgery. This time, it’s a torn meniscus, the second such surgery he’s had. Nevin should be out until mid-August, but it’s a straightforward procedure. The injury shouldn’t affect his hitting, and Nevin wasn’t exactly tearing up the basepaths anyway, so this shouldn’t change his game upon return. This does give me a chance to point at the attrition and drop rates that PECOTA has for Nevin. If you’re in a keeper league or are Kevin
Towers, take note.
Eric Chavez is not only a fast healer, he appears to be rust-resistant. In his start at Triple-A, Chavez came back with two singles and a
walk. He started at DH, but his fielding isn’t expected to be a problem. The rehab assignment is not expected to be a long one, so Chavez could be back later this week.
The play Derek Jeter made diving into the stands was one of the better plays I’ve seen this year. For all his shortcomings defensively, he certainly has a flair for the fantastic. I wondered initially why none of the Yankees fans caught him, but if I saw a big man coming at me in a full sprint, I might dive for cover myself. Jeter hit a chair with his face and some reports say his cheek hit an armrest. The mouse under his eye looked more like something we’d see in a boxing match, but the real worry was the chin. Cut open, Jeter’s chin might have been broken, but x-rays are reportedly negative. The concern now is the possibility of a concussion. The Yankees captain may need a game or two off, but it could have been much worse.
Someone needs to check the post-game spread. A second Yankee, Kevin Brown, was diagnosed with intestinal parasites on Thursday. Brown experienced an unexplained weight loss about a month ago, helping pinpoint the timeframe for the infestation. While it makes for some easy jokes–“Did they eat out in Boston?”–the fact is that even in modern America, this type of infestation isn’t uncommon. Brown, like Jason Giambi, should be cured easily, helping his recovery and stamina. It does not affect his return from the DL at all.
The Astros remade their pitching staff in the midst of an important divisional series, all revolving around the move of Wade Miller to the DL. Miller has struggled with shoulder tendinitis for much of the season, but with the return of Andy Pettitte and the demotion of Tim Redding to the pen, the Astros decided to use the ASB to extend Miller’s rest. While the injury isn’t considered serious, Miller hasn’t pitched up to expectations. With the fifth starter slot in flux, and Jimy Williams on the hot seat, the Astros staff will be interesting to watch. Williams used Brad Lidge for a two-inning stint on Wednesday. In the Wrigley press box, there was a split among those who thought it was a move made out of desperation or inspiration.
That whole thing yesterday about Kerry Wood heading to the minors? Well, not so much. Wood will throw a simulated game on Thursday and then the decision will be made on not where, but if he will have a rehab start. There’s still some doubt about where he slots in. Manager Dusty Baker would rather use him against Milwaukee, but the medical staff thinks the St. Louis series is more likely. Either way, there’s finally a solid target for Wood’s return. Wood should be fine once he returns, but his command will be something of an issue. According to Cubs sources, the adjustments made to his delivery may cause problems with his curve. He’s working on a slurve, just in case.
The gloves didn’t work for Austin Kearns. He’ll head under the knife to remove bone spurs, scar tissue, and close the wound on his right thumb. Kearns was unable to bat without significant pain, leading to the decision for surgery. Kearns will miss four weeks, but according to Dr. Tim Kremchek, won’t have much of a rehab. In fact, Kearns could be hitting as soon as the wound heals. August 1st is a reasonable goal. The Reds will get Sean Casey back this weekend after an MRI indicated only a moderate strain in his calf. Already out of the boot, Casey expects to play in this weekend’s series. Ken Griffey Jr. was held out of Tuesday’s game with cramps, but it’s not considered serious at all.
Instead of a simulated game Wednesday, Kerry Wood will be heading to the minors. The Cubs think a rehab start would help him more, given his current status. A decision on that location will be made Wednesday and the start will happen Thursday or Friday. Assuming that start goes well, Wood will return and slot back in the rotation around July 5th. If so, that will be the first time in 2004 that the Cubs will have their intended rotation together, something almost as good as a trade. Granted, a trade for someone like Eddie Guardado or Ugueth Urbina would help as well…
I’m working on a piece that will run next week about unorthodox deliveries. Steven Goldman and I spent some time comparing the motions of Walter Johnson and Randy Johnson. I’ve also had my head buried in my Japanese “Nature of Pitching” book. Sure, I can’t read it, but the diagrams are great. Still, the best part has been going on MLB.tv and watching the archived games. I can watch the toe-tap of Tim Hudson, the pattycake in Akinori Otsuka’s windup, and the flaw in Roger Clemens delivery. For all the complaining I do about MLB, MLB.tv is about the coolest thing ever for a baseball fan. The archive and condensed games trump watching it on the big screen for me. If anyone has an interesting delivery in his or her memory banks, drop me a line. So, powered by that, let’s get right into the injuries…