There’s a lot of fog in every report on Andy Pettitte, but while some would like you to believe that you can’t get good info, I just say they don’t know where to look. Most of the key to analyzing Pettitte’s injury lies in the description of the injury. We noted that Pettitte was holding his elbow, not his forearm, and that was a good clue. Most reports, including this good one in the Houston Chronicle, indicate that the team is waiting 48 hours to evaluate the injury. The reason is likely that there’s swelling in the area, which could make some imaging more difficult. While the team is putting a happy face on it by saying Pettitte might not miss his next start–which is possible–the injury appears to be as serious as the elbow injury that landed him on the DL in April.
Forearm problems appear to be in vogue in the league, at least among good Southern pitchers. Jake Peavy was near his Mobile home testing his arm (after his wife gave birth–congrats) and the flexor tendinitis was enough to push him to the DL. It’s not considered a severe injury, but just enough to keep the Pads ace off the mound as a precaution. Expect him to be out the minimum and to come back without much problem. With the staff also missing DL’d David Wells, suffering through sub-par seasons by Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence as well as the flailings of Ismael Valdez, it’s shocking to see the Pads atop the NL West. Thanks, Dodger losing streak!
Thursday in Indianapolis is so big, the state should just go ahead and call it a holiday. At the Indy 500, the Thursday before the race is called “Carburetion Day,” or to locals, “Carb Day.” In the heyday of the race, all 33 cars would be out on the track making final adjustments to their setups. From then on, the cars are locked down until Sunday morning. Of course, it’s been years since there were actually carburetors on these million-dollar engines, but the name still holds. It’s a tradition that, with the changes at the Speedway, have become a shell of the past–but it’s still pretty great. It’s impressive that 50,000 people watching cars practice can be considered failure, that pit-stops can be turned into a spectator sport, and that more beer will be consumed in five hours than at all seven games of the last five World Series. What makes me sad is that the good old days seem to keep some from appreciating what we have now.
Baseball is like that some days. People pine for the days that probably weren’t as good as they remember. Worse, they actively try to pull baseball back into the mythic grasp of the few. It’s just another battle in the war that has been raging for the last 30 or 40 years. Some want you to believe that baseball is myth, and that only they can give you a peek inside the mystical workings of the game. Others show that anyone with an original thought and sufficient effort can open the game up and make it better, whether they’re a national columnist, a writer in Kansas, or a guy who talks about groin pulls with an uncomfortable regularity.
Baseball belongs to all of us, and shame on anyone that tries to take it away. On to the injuries…
With all the injuries the Angels have been dealing with, the one that’s perhaps the most concerning to them is that of Bartolo Colon’s mysterious loss of velocity. Colon’s apparent lack of fitness has never deterred him from being an ace-level starter and one of an elite few that actually gain velocity as the game goes on. Like Mark Prior and Livan Hernandez, Colon doesn’t throw with full effort on every pitch, something often done in previous eras. However, over the last few starts, Colon has started around 90 mph–and then gone down. Velocity loss is a measure of fatigue in the best case and an omen of shoulder injury in the worst, so the Angels are watching him closely. You should as well.
There are some pained e-mails from Cubs fans determined to “prove” that the Cubs are lying about Kerry Wood. Why would he have a good result from the bone scan, then have it released that he’d be out another two weeks? Simply put, there are two things going on here. The Cubs realize they botched the public relations part of the Mark Prior injury, so they’re trending toward to the cautious. They’re also being more cautious with their two aces’ arms, perhaps realizing that it’s not worth the risk, and saves innings they could need even more in October. The results they’ve had with the rest of the staff and the current standings give them the luxury to be conservative.
We have a Nick Johnson sighting! So often, even the slightest Johnson news seems almost too cruel with a legion of people that drafted him high (myself included) hoping against hope that they’ll see some return–not to mention the team that traded for him in real life. Johnson is finally making progress, but again, I’m not going to say that he couldn’t blink wrong and end up starting the rehab process again. Still, a 3-5 day with a homer is a major positive. If all goes well this week, he could make his Montreal debut near Memorial Day.
Jose Reyes is also making progress in extended spring training. (Jeez, if both Reyes and Johnson make it back in June, what will I write about?) Reyes has had good results in back-to-back extended spring training games, hitting and running well. There’s still some room for improvement, but it appears that the changes made in his rehab program are paying off. If all goes well, Reyes will likely make a quick rehab stop in the minors and could be back in the Mets lineup by the first week of June.
It was another day at the Indy Motor Speedway today, where I give hourly updates on nothing. Nothing happens, really. The same cars go out and do laps (very fast), then come in. The excitement is, maybe, a crash, but there was only one of those. Thankfully, no injuries and barely any damage to the million-dollar car. But the funny anecdote is that I was sitting with one of the drivers and he turns to me and says “you’re the baseball guy on the radio, right?” I said, yes. He paused and said “If I got a couple million dollars together, could I get to play for a team?” It took me a second to realize he wasn’t kidding. “No, (name), it’s not like racing. You’d have to go through the minors and all that.” He shook his head. “That sucks. Doesn’t seem fair.” I wasn’t sure if he was joking, but later, his cell phone rang. The ring tone? “Take Me Out To The Ballgame.” On to the injuries…
The Phillies will miss Randy Wolf for one start and Jim Thome for a couple games. Neither is likely to hit the DL, but it is concerning for the team. Wolf had a “tingle” in his elbow after an outing in Colorado. While there’s no pain the day-after, the team is concerned enough to give him some extra rest. He’ll work on the side while Jeff Cooper and the rest of the staff watch him closely. Thome is dealing with more hand problems; two swollen fingers on his right hand now join his left thumb that has been bothering him since Spring Training. Highlights from Sunday clearly showed Thome wincing as he swung the bat, even when he hit a home run.
The timetable for Dmitri Young has changed slightly. Published reports say that the Tigers expect their slugger back on May 25th, rather than early-June. Why is this? The Tigers are bringing back Young before he’s completely healed. Alan Trammell was quoted as saying that he expected Young to “play with a limp.” It’s not often that a team will rush someone back to help salvage a .500 season, but it shows just how important the improvement is to this franchise.
That must have been one heck of a sneeze. Sammy Sosa’s sneeze strained a ligament in his back, pushing him to the DL. While the injury is both painful and would make playing difficult if not impossible, Sosa doesn’t have any further structural damage and should come back around the minimum. With the Astros and Cardinals on the immediate schedule, this is a bad time to be without the slugger, but the Cubs will try to make do by mixing and matching players like Todd Hollandsworth, Tom Goodwin, and perhaps David Kelton or Jason DuBois.
The injury to David Wells could have been a lot worse. While the rumors and innuendo will only intensify, Wells’ injury consists of simple yet deep lacerations to the hand and a partial tear/laceration of the palmaris longis tendon. This tendon, normally used as the replacement structure in Tommy John surgery, was repaired in minor surgery on Tuesday. Since the tendon has no real function, Wells is expected back around the minimum.
A quiet day on the schedule usually means a pretty quiet day on the UTK front, but injuries, at this stage, are inevitable. Despite teams and medical staffs doing all they can to prevent injuries, things are going to happen. Even if we were able to figure out how to prevent overuse injuries, there would still be freak things or collisions like the Giles vs. Jones natural disaster. I’ve often wished for a day without injuries, but it’s not coming any time soon.
Powered by the mystery of the gyroball, on to the injuries…
Barry Bonds is carrying the Giants, but it seems the load might be wearing on him. Bonds missed Sunday’s game with minor back spasms. Brian Sabean’s “10 instead of one” strategy is unraveling, but losing Bonds for any significant amount of time would be a step beyond devastating. With Bonds in the lineup (using a normal eight-man formation), the team’s MLVr is 0.782. Without Bonds, using the ‘best available’ replacement, Jeffrey Hammonds, the Giants descend to a lineup that is worth less than replacement level, at -0.234.
The Giants may have the best medical staff in baseball, but even they seem to be at a loss with Robb Nen. Nen’s rehab continues to fail as he comes up with pain after any normal throwing session. Labrum tears are notoriously difficult to come back from. According to the best data I have available, only one of 36 players has been able to return to their previous level after labrum surgery. These data are a bit shaky, since there may be some shoulder surgeries that also repaired the labrum, but only listed the primary repair. Nen will continue to try to return, but things look increasingly bleak.
After another day at the races and a night of teaching kids how to avoid Tommy John surgery, it’s nice to set my Nokia down and dig into the research for UTK. Really, it’s a 24-hour process, but when I can sit and type this out, my thoughts, boiling all day, tend to get a bit clearer. During the day, it’s turmoil in the best way, but with the iBook in my lap, everything comes together.
So, powered by Flexall 454 Quick Gel, let’s get on to the injuries…
Back from Toronto and one of the best book signings we had all year. Thanks to Indigo and everyone who attended, with a special thanks to the guys who run battersbox.ca. The constitutional through Toronto’s sunny streets with Craig Burley was among the highlights of my trip. The best part of this job is the people I get to know.
Of course, the minute I leave town, a big injury happens. So, powered by the gourmet pizza served Tuesday night in Toronto, on to the injuries…
The miracles of modern medicine amaze me. A couple seasons ago the incident where Rich Aurilia had bone chips removed from his elbow and returned in the 15-day minimum seemed to me to be about the most serious injury a player could recover from in 15 days. I stand corrected. Austin Kearns may come back from a fractured ulna in the minimum. Think about this: Two weeks ago, I said “While three to four weeks is the public prognosis by some, six weeks is more likely.” No one could have predicted such a recovery, and this is one of those moments where we may have to adjust timetables due to improving medical methods.
Bret Boone has taken to wearing a brace under his uniform. This isn’t a normal brace or even one designed for some medical purpose. According to published reports, Boone is wearing a weight-lifting belt to help support him. I hope the Mariners trainers think this is a better idea than it sounds. The Mariners can ill afford losing Boone for any period of time without some sort of return.
Early word on the knee and ankle injuries suffered by Jose Guillen is pretty negative. Guillen injured himself sliding into second and needed to be carted from the field. Tests on Monday will reveal the damage. With Darin Erstad and Garret Anderson already on the DL for extended periods, the Angels will have an outfield that has only one of their expected powerhouses, while prospect Casey Kotchman will be asked to man Erstad’s position at first. The depth that once looked like overkill has turned out to be necessary. Erstad’s hamstring injury will keep him out much longer than originally expected, and may be as bad as a Grade 3 strain. He’s looking at missing at least a month, potentially not returning until the All-Star break. With Anderson, the Angels and their medical staff still have no idea what is causing the pain. They’ve ruled out disc problems and arthritis, but until they have a cause, Anderson has been completely shut down.
Let’s leave the Angels and their fans with some good news: Tim Salmon should be back by next week. Brendan Donnelly may actually beat Salmon back to Anaheim. He’ll make a couple of appearances in Salt Lake City, then return to his setup role.
Lots of e-mails on two unrelated topics: Jason Bay and Peter Gammons’ comment about pitchers using steroids. Let’s start with Peter’s comment: Yes, steroids would help pitchers. It’s always been my understanding that steroids, used properly (and yes, there is a proper way) would benefit pitchers MORE than it would hitters. Not only would they increase strength, but the drugs could be used to assist recovery, something pitchers definitely need to worry about. Strength alone won’t immediately put on velocity, but someone who already has the mechanics to put together an 88 m.p.h. heater could probably find a couple extra m.p.h. if his mechanics held together.
Jason Bay doesn’t seem like the type to start an e-mail flood, but since many of the questions were similar, I’ll go with it. Asked if Bay’s surgery was “botched” or if the Pirates are “hiding something,” I went to my best Bucs source. He flatly denied either suggestion, and implied that that the Pirates were just erring on the side of caution. I’ll also note that teams, in my experience, seldom out-and-out lie about injuries. They’ll dance around facts using every rhetorical trick in the book, but get them off the record or back them into a logical corner and the truth flows freely. Bay started his rehab assignment with a 1-3 night, so he should be about a week away from Pittsburgh.
There’s a lot going on in the world of baseball. Most of it is on the field, but there’s too much happening off the field for my comfort. The ongoing BALCO controversy took on a new, potentially frightening turn when it was announced that the Federal Government is in position now to match all test results to names–putting the identities of the 87 people who tested positive last year at risk of being publicized. It remains unclear to me if those who tested positive are aware that they did test positive. As well, the re-tested samples seized just a few weeks ago in Las Vegas could come public at any time. While I’ve written very little about the case in the pages of BP, I am monitoring the situation closely. When there are important and substantive issues to discuss, we’ll be ready.
Powered by Monster Lo-Carb, on to the injuries…
As with any part of baseball, injuries are visually deceptive. What our eyes tell us may not necessarily be the truth, and is subject to the tests of objectivity and science, with the occasional fallback to experience and educated guesses. Things that appear serious can be nothing, things that appear innocuous end seasons, and things we don\’t even notice add up to disaster. Sports medicine is often more art than science, but we should never feel like we can use a simple formula; there is no 1+1=2 for a medhead. The equations are far more complex, the data often flawed, and the platform ever-changing. It\’s just a reminder that while injuries are an overlooked part of baseball, it\’s still subject to the same vagaries that tell us never to trust our eyes.