There may be no glory in winning with a $100 million payroll, as Michael Lewis said last week on BPR, but I don’t think anyone in Red Sox Nation cares as much about glory as they do about beating the Yankees. The Yankees were hoping the A’s would pull things out with half their rotation on the shelf, while the Sox head into the ALCS with momentum, energy, and a wrath-of-God offense that Gary Huckabay so richly evoked in his ALDS preview.
Watching the brutal collision between Johnny Damon and Damian Jackson has me wondering why neither player could use the low-tech solution of calling for the ball, or why something more high-tech like headset communicators aren’t being implemented (think how fast the game could move if we could eliminate mound conferences). The collision clearly knocked Damon out for perhaps as long as two minutes, much more than what Marcus Giles suffered in his run-in with Mark Prior. Damon’s availability is in serious question, making Theo Epstein work hard as he readies his ALCS roster. Damon is likely to be available, but likely will miss at least the first two games in New York, giving the Sox a short bench. I’m also closely watching Jackson. I have absolutely no idea why the Sox sent him back out after clearly being concussed. Post-concussion syndrome is still a possibility for both players.
Jason Schmidt took a lot of, well, rhymes with “Schmidt” on Saturday when he didn’t take the ball for Game Four. We soon learned why: Schmidt has pitched since early August with a torn flexor tendon. Surgery will be necessary to correct this, and the procedure was actually recommended back in August. After consultations with several orthopedists, Schmidt elected to continue pitching after being advised he could not exacerbate the injury. This injury is very similar to one suffered by Robb Nen at the end of the 1999 season. After having surgery on Oct. 7, 1999, Nen was able to return for Spring Training with minor limitations and went on to have a phenomenal 2000 season. The outlook is good for Schmidt’s 2004, a season one hopes will come without the questions about his fortitude. Tim Hudson left Game Four of the Sox-A’s series after only one inning with an injury, alternately described as a hip flexor and as a strained oblique. Hudson will have an MRI on Monday to determine the extent of the injury, which sources tell me is a strained oblique. Hudson will not be available for Game Five, but the MRI will determine when–or if–Hudson would be available, assuming there are games he’d need to be available for.
The games so far have gone according to form, not in the sense that they’ve been predictable, but in the sense that each series has its strengths. Want slugging? Got it. Want great pitching? Got it. Want strategy? Got it. Want to second-guess managers? We’ve got that too. Want to see the best players that baseball has to offer? We might not have all of ’em, but there’s certainly plenty. (Even the announcing has been pretty good, but more on that later.) All in all, it’s a great time to be both a baseball fan and a medhead. The only negative so far? The fact that I’m up at nearly 2 a.m. watching the Red Sox play a phenomenal game in Oakland. Oh well… there are worse fates, I suppose.
While wondering if seeing high-speed film of Chad Bradford might make a biomechanist’s head explode, here are the injuries from today’s games…
Marcus Giles left Game One after brushing Eric Karros and injuring his ankle. He landed awkwardly, stretching the achilles tendon while landing with nearly his full body weight on a dorsiflexed foot. Giles will undergo treatment, and at deadline, the Braves expect him to be a gametime decision. Mark DeRosa would be his replacement if necessary, though Jesse Garcia replaced him when he left the game.
Mike Lowell stayed on the bench for Game One. That fact tells us a lot about his health, as Lowell has had some measure of success against Jason Schmidt (708 OPS). With Lowell’s small sample size lack of success against Kirk Rueter and Sidney Ponson, it’s unlikely he will see the plate unless it’s almost an emergency situation. Perhaps I was wrong, and this is a situation like the Scott Rolen fiasco last year.
The Red Sox have no injury concerns, I’m told. More than one source told me that Trot Nixon is as close to full-go as he could be this late in the season. As well, the same sources told me independently that they thought Pedro Martinez would be allowed to go as deep into the game as he can go with no pitch or inning limits. The Red Sox go into the playoffs as the healthiest team, and as I’ve said roughly four thousand times, that could be just the difference they need.
Green and Yellow. That probably works pretty well for most A’s fans, especially when, like the uniforms, they see more green than gold. It’s that red light on the players’ section that doesn’t fit in with the official color scheme, and probably has Billy Beane hurling a chair my way. The starters have some issues, starting with their outfield. Jermaine Dye is still not 100% and may never be the player he was before he shattered his leg. Jose Guillen is playing through pain, and while he’s been moderately effective in the short term, there’s also nothing stopping a small change that would increase his pain or decrease his effectiveness. Chris Singleton has some back issues, Billy McMillon has some leg issues, and Eric Byrnes is still trying to figure out what happened to his bat after the All-Star break.
The pitching staff is yellow on some whispers about Tim Hudson’s back and the missing presence of Mark Mulder. Peter Gammons broke the story about the use of Forteo, a recombinant form of parathyroid hormone manufactured by Eli Lilly, on Mark Mulder. The use of Forteo in men is poorly tested, and in fact, an “off-label” usage of the drug. Mulder remains a possibility, but neither myself nor anyone who I spoke to regarding this would even venture a guess on Mulder’s availability. The A’s haven’t officially given any comment on Hudson’s back, but this is nothing unusual. It could be nothing, but then again, I’d rather warn you of unconfirmed talk and let you make your own decision.
The rest of the team is relatively healthy, and the roster is both deep and flexible. Now, it’s time to watch two of the smartest teams in baseball take each other on in what can only be called the Moneyball Series.
Yes, the Team Health Reports are back for the postseason, morphed a little bit to fit the format. In each of the four Division Series, we’ll address the key questions and concerns each team has. We’ll break down how injuries or good health will affect who might win and who might lose. While some have said that their bleep doesn’t work in the playoffs, injuries are even more important. A talented team can be decimated by one flukish injury. Just last season, a well-positioned Cardinals team fell short of where their talent projected to take them when Scott Rolen injured his shoulder. Worse, the Cardinals made bad decisions based on Rolen’s injury (keeping him active and playing with a short bench) that also contributed to their downfall.
Just to remind everyone, we’ll use the stoplight metaphor to give warnings about health. Instead of breaking it down by player, this time we’ll do it by the four major positional breakdowns. Green means that there’s no discernible injury risk above average. Yellow means that there are significant concerns that could lead to a foreseeable injury. Red means you’d better know what you’re getting into by sending the guy out on the field. This isn’t to say that your “red” player can’t be effective or even injury-free, but in baseball–like most things in life–you’d better know the risks.
The Marlins have done just fine without Mike Lowell–in no small part aided by the acquisition of Jeff Conine–but the Fish will certainly be happy to have their start third baseman back in the lineup. It’s possible that he’ll get a couple regular season at-bats to test his thumb if he’s cleared. He was targeting Saturday, but due to the medical staff’s concerns, and an adjustment of game time, Lowell is more likely to be back on Sunday. A final determination will be made when he’s seen by the doctor on Friday. (On Conine and others, has this been the weirdest year in recent memory for moves working out that looked horrible on paper?)
With the clinch, the Twins get to rest their players and reset their rotation for the Division Series. Ron Gardenhire started the 2003 Rochester Red Wings on Wednesday, affording some rest for guys like Doug Mientkiewicz. Minky will sit out the remaining games to try and get his wrist some much needed rest. As well, the Twins will work the rotation to get Johan Santana–a guy they were reluctant to have in the rotation not too long ago–as their Game One starter. How Ron Gardenhire sets his bench and rotation will be very interesting, with guys like Chris Gomez, who has missed the better part of September with back problems, and Eric Milton, looking for roles.
With the White Sox eliminated, they’ll try to keep something positive working by giving Esteban Loaiza a couple shots at winning 20 games by pitching him twice this week on short rest. Word from the south side has the Sox with a quick hook, positive or negative, in his first start and letting him control his destiny for the last. Loaiza has been handled very well this season–another positive reflection on Don Cooper’s work.
I’m just stunned at the comeback of Jose Guillen. With a broken hamate, his swing looks unaltered and effective. He’s obviously subject to pain tolerance and immediate relapse, but the A’s have to like having a guy who can play under such circumstances. They’re also smart enough to let another team overpay for him. Is Jose Guillen this year’s Jeffrey Hammonds? Maybe.
The Padres are beginning to figure out how the pieces go together for 2004. As expected, Ryan Klesko will move to the outfield with Phil Nevin being a bit protected from diving injuries (we hope) at first base. With Brian Giles normally a left-fielder, the immediate thought is that Klesko would move to right, but with the new park showing some odd dimensions, the Pads will have an open mind when it comes to positioning their outfield.
As most focus has gone to the workloads placed on Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, Dusty Baker hasn’t gone easy on his other starters. Carlos Zambrano, one must remember, is in fact younger than Prior by nine months. Zambrano is averaging 109 pitches per start–more over the last two months–and followed a 129 pitch appearance with a poor outing where he was saved by a 10-run outburst. Zambrano’s next start is pivotal, both because the Cubs are tied for the division lead, and because he must show that he can rebound from the heavy workload placed on him. Zambrano is also significantly past his previous innings pitched maximum, a big red flag. Add in reports of back and knee soreness and Zambrano goes from the fist-pumping fireballer that Cubs fans want to see on the mound to someone that has to be watched closely and could become a question mark if the Cubs make it to post-season play.
Also making the watch-list is Matt Clement. Lately, Clement has been dealing with groin and calf problems that have exacerbated his streaky nature and spotty control. The Cubs will combat his problems with extended rest, pushing him back to Saturday and forcing the Cubs to go to Shawn Estes in a must-win game. Clement’s move back in the rotation opens a question as to his playoff availability, and where he fits in the playoff rotation. Depending on tiebreakers and last minute, must-win game adjustments, the Cubs figure to use Prior, Wood, and Zambrano. Expect Clement’s outing next Saturday to be his audition for the rotation. A good start and the Cubs will go four-man.
It is every fan’s god-given right to second guess. Half the fun of the game is the “Why is he bunting?” or “He has Dunston pinch-hitting?” chatter. BP is built on the idea that baseball can be made better by looking at it from a different perspective, which is an academic slant on second-guessing. If I had a dollar for every time I heard someone say “Just because it worked doesn’t mean it was smart” when it comes to a Dusty Baker move–especially if this includes my own utterances on that theme–I’d be able to afford one of those cool Segways.
At some point, however, there has to be something more to it than mere luck. While it’s tough–if not impossible–to isolate managerial performance, Baker is demonstrating that he more-or-less knows what he’s doing in the face of so much evidence to the contrary. At some point, Baker ceases to be a fluke like the 2002 Angels–a house built on sand–and becomes, well, something else entirely.
Powered by a software update to my Nokia 3650 and Apple’s iSync, on to the injuries…
As the Red Sox fight both the Mariners and the specter of the Yankees, they’ll do it with a fully-loaded Pedro Martinez. Quotes today from Red Sox Nation include tidbits that Pedro’s recent longer outings were part of a master plan. If the plan is to be believed (and color me somewhat skeptical), Pedro’s extra days of rest, short outings, and conditioning program all built up to this. This bears watching as some sort of modern version of the “Sunday Pitcher.” If it works, like anything successful in sports, it will be imitated. The Sox are also dealing with the limited availability of Bill Mueller, out with back spasms. Adding in Johnny Damon’s problems and a bullpen that seems to be missing only J. Irving Bentley, and the Sox, like every other playoff team, have an Achilles heel. Speaking of teams that are dealing with injury problems and overcoming them, the A’s seem to be the masters. With Keith Foulke likely to be back on Friday, but the back spasms quite possible to recur, the bullpen in Oakland will need to be watched closely and set up for the playoffs. I don’t think Foulke’s injury should be a major problem, but the chance of his unavailability in even one close game could be the tipping point in a playoff series. As the China Trust Whales discovered this season, even one game lost can make the difference between the playoffs and making tee times. On the good news front, Chris Singleton and Billy McMillon should be back, perhaps as early as Friday after treatment to Singleton’s back and McMillon’s finger reduced symptoms.
I’d like to thank everyone for all the feedback on yesterday’s UTK. I went into a bit more depth than I normally do, and since there was such a reaction–many being “Jeez, Will, what’s with you using numbers and stuff? Are those BP Math Bullies kicking your butt in the playground?”–it’s something I’ll try to do more of in the future.
In fact, while many of you wrote in to enlighten me with background information on a number of the pitchers who made “the list,” even more you reminded me that the topic was addressed directly in one of the best books on baseball ever written, The Diamond Appraised. In TDA, Craig Wright and Tom House took a close look at the topic of pitcher workloads, introducing a number of ideas that were revolutionary for the time, and are still causing debate today. If you haven’t read this book, do so immediately.
Speaking of books, it’s time for my “big announcement.” I’ve reached an agreement in principle to write a book this off-season on pitcher injuries. I’m excited about the project, which will bring together some of the greatest minds in sports medicine to try and shine a bright light on the problem of pitcher health. More on this project in the future.
Powered by hope of an October beer at Clark & Addison, on to the injuries…
I’ll get right into the heart of this because Mark Prior’s 124 pitch performance tore me in two. As I’ve mentioned before, Prior tends to throw harder in later innings, and that held true last night as well, as he was reaching 96 mph in the 8th. For the first time, however, Prior lost velocity in the 9th, topping out at 93. Adding in the elbow drop, and you can imagine how I was hyperventilating and speaking to the TV in harsh tones. (Does it make even less sense to talk to the TV when you’re TiVoing the game, and you’re about a minute behind?)
Prior may have had a birthday last week, but he’s still in the heart of the injury nexus. Future owner Steve Stone rightfully pointed out in Tuesday’s broadcast that Prior was in “unchartered” territory, nearing 200 innings pitched–and that the collision with Marcus Giles may have been, in the long run, the best thing for him. Prior, as well as teammates Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano–who is even younger than Prior–are all near the top of the PAP charts. Comments from Dusty Baker seem to indicate that he’s more than willing to keep his young pitchers working down the stretch. While flags do fly forever, and the ineffectiveness of the Cubs’ bullpen should factor into his decisions, Baker also needs to remember that his young pitchers’ arms might hang limp–like the flags do on a windless summer day–if he keeps working them so hard.
Trot Nixon is still about a week away from returning to the Red Sox lineup as the team battles for the Wild Card slot. Nixon’s calf is making progress, but team sources say that he’s still experiencing “catches” when he runs above a certain effort level. Given their current lineup, moving Nixon to DH isn’t an option, but there’s been some internal discussion about trying him at first base. Outside of a change in the current situation–like a positional move or another injury–Nixon is likely to be back in the lineup for the weekend series against the Indians.
As expected, Melvin Mora tore his MCL in Toronto, but the news could have been much worse. The MRI returned only a partially torn ligament, and it is likely that Mora will be able to avoid surgery. Once the swelling is reduced he’ll begin an intensive rehab program, and will make a final decision on surgery by November. Why November? To give him time to recover in case surgery is necessary. All indications are that he should be able to avoid the knife and be ready for spring training. More importantly, Mora should retain his versatility and mobility.
When Randall Simon made the diving catch and threw to Matt Clement in stride, I cheered for two reasons: 1) Because it was a great play by my new favorite Cub, and 2) Because I knew right then that Clement had no residual problems with his groin. I did get clarification on the groin/calf mix-up, and it makes a bit more sense to me now. Clement was hit in the calf by a batted ball during his start on September 3rd. Running the bases afterwards, his changed gait caused a cascade which led to the strained groin. The muscle tends to tighten up on him after running, not pitching, so as long as his mechanics stay compact–always a problem with Clement–he should be fine.
Everyone who knows me–or reads this column regularly–knows that I love Vegas, and think that Major League Baseball could flourish there. Well, apparently I’m not the only one, as Steve Stone has been secretly heading a group trying to buy the Expos and move them out west. As a Cubs fan, I’ve always enjoyed Steve’s work, especially when it comes to explaining the mental processes of pitching. I didn’t know it before meeting him on the field at Wrigley, but Stone is a close friend of Bud Selig–a fact that can’t hurt his chances of landing the team. Can Stone come up with the cash and a stadium? All reports have Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman on board, and that means things in town are a go. While I don’t like the implication of a winter where the two main stories will be the reinstatement of Pete Rose and a team moving to Vegas, I think one will definitely happen, and the other’s a coin flip.
Powered by Vince Vaughn’s performance in the movie Swingers, on to the injuries…
Sunday, Sunday, Sunday! OK, it doesn’t work as well in UTK as it does for monster truck rallies and mud bog races, but Sunday is the day that many Twins fans have been waiting for. After serious knee surgery, it didn’t look like Eric Milton would be back in 2003, but on Sunday Milton will get the start, right in the heart of the most important stretch of games for the Twins all year. Milton has been mediocre in rehab starts, but has had solid command and velocity. He’ll supplant Carlos Pulido from the rotation, but will be on an innings limit when he faces the Indians.
The Cubs don’t need an injury, and Matt Clement’s came at the worst time–right in the midst of a no-hitter (yes, Lee, I know, I know…). Clement’s strained calf was enough to throw his control off almost completely, so a bullpen session tomorrow will go a long way towards knowing if he’ll be ready for his next start. All indications are that he will be ready to go.