Joe Mays will undergo Tommy John surgery on Thursday and will likely miss all of the 2004 campaign. Score one for PECOTA and take special note of his collapse rate. Given that 2005 is the next time Mays is likely to be physically capable of pitching in the big leagues, NOLAN (Nate’s Omniscient Laptop And Number-cruncher) says that Mays only has a one-in-three shot of coming back. That’s info worth knowing, despite the success rate of TJ surgery.
Trot Nixon will pay a visit to the Red Sox’ physicians in hopes of salvaging his season. Yes, the strained calf could be that serious, according to one source in Boston. Nixon injured himself running to first, and depending on the findings, will miss a minimum of one week, and potentially could be done well into the playoffs. Andy Abad, a guy who shredded the IL at age 31, stands to gain some playing time along with Gabe Kapler.
The Astros retook first place on Wednesday, but their hopes took a hit as Octavio Dotel’s ass isn’t getting any better. OK, gluteal muscle, if you must–but (no pun intended), it’s the backside of the back end of the bullpen that’s worrying right now. With Brad Lidge emerging from a slump and Dotel hoping that sitting on the bench won’t hurt, Ricky Stone is picking up the workload. Dotel is reportedly going to miss the important weekend Cardinals’ series, forcing Jimy Williams to rework his pitching roles and try to explain why Nathan Bland isn’t with the team.
When in doubt, I know I have three things that always go in my favor. First, I have the crew at BP. Even when they’re working on their own incredible stuff, each member is always just a phone call or an email away. Second, I have my team of sources and advisors. Though recent events have shaken some of the weaker sources into clamming up (for now), I still have one of the best phone books in the biz. Finally, and most importantly, I have you, the subscribers. From asking for help getting velocity, to technical assistance, to the most intelligent emails, I’m always happy to look in my Inbox and find new stuff from you.
Now, I’m asking you for some more suggestions on how to turn UTK into something you want to read in the off-season. What would you like to see? Those of you that made the journey with me from UTK 1.0 last year know that the off-season is…well, pretty dry when it comes to injury info. So please send in your suggestions. Those of you that have gotten to know me in person at Feeds, through email, or vicariously through this column know that I don’t sleep, so please, keep me working through the (literally) dark days of the winter. Yes, first priority is getting the Velocity Project in some sort of presentable form and I have a big date circled for late November, but everything else…once again, I’m counting on you.
Powered by Warren Zevon in my iTunes, on to the injuries…
As I find myself writing more and more about pitchers, pitcher injuries, and theories about preventing said pitcher injuries, I find myself returning to a few themes. First, Keith Woolner and Rany Jazayerli have the best system, bar none, that has been tested. Ignore PAP3 at your own risk. Second, we ignore pitch efficiency. When Roy Halladay can go 10 innings and not crack 100 pitches, he’s on to something.
In fact, the more I think about it, pitch efficiency seems to be a victim of the era. Just 20 years ago, the ’86 Mets–a team that I see all too often on ESPN Classic–look like a bunch of pencil-necked geeks compared to the middle-infielders of today. Serve up a fat pitch to Ozzie Smith, or better, his backup, and at worst you get a double. After a while, that can add up to significantly fewer pitches per appearance. If you’re obsessed with complete games or want to figure out a way around that LaRussian third LOOGY, getting your starter to go 10 pitches an inning is a must. I’ll talk more about efficiency soon, but let’s get to what you’re here for.
Powered by my enforced punishment beverage, mead, by order of the Office of Arrogance and Elitism, on to the injuries…
If I hear Andy Roddick called “A-Rod” one more time, I’m probably going to puke, but it does bring forth an interesting question. Here’s this up and coming tennis star, dating a singer/actress, and what’s he get for marketing? The already-used nickname of an undermarketed baseball player. Roddick hasn’t approached the popularity or consistency of Alex Rodriguez, so attaching himself to that image helps. I’ll leave the baseball business stuff to Doug Pappas, but without the Lords of Baseball doing their anti-marketing, baseball–even on the day when the football freaks teed it up–is running a close second. Pennant races and good baseball create fans.
Powered by more of the fabulous Beringer White Merlot and my new kick-ass corkscrew, on to the injuries…
Hideo Nomo gets bonus points for admitting he was hurt, but not as many as he would have gotten had he said something when it first started hurting. The Dodgers on the other hand are…well, I don’t want to say that word. We’ll say obfuscating, how’s that? Calling inflammation of his rotator cuff the result of fatigue is…what’s the word? Crap. Pure crap. Inflammation comes from irritation and overuse. While fatigue might have something to do with poor mechanics, calling it the cause is insulting to medheads. Frank Jobe’s legacy deserves better than the current problems in the Dodgers training room.
Sixty-three. Sixty-four. Sixty-five. Sixty-six. Sixty-seven. At last count, 67 of you kind souls let me know that Derek Jeter would be out this weekend with a strained oblique. He’ll miss the Red Sox series. Allow me to refresh your short-term memories–look at what I said on Wednesday regarding Jeter. Good thing they signed Luis Sojo, eh?
If you’re avoiding watching the Tigers, you’re missing out on some interesting baseball. Among the more interesting parts is Danny Patterson, a former Ranger that came over in the Juan Gonzalez deal and has been injured seemingly ever since. Patterson has picked up some saves, but he’s been phenomenal out of the bullpen since returning. He’s definitely one of those guys you want to have in any pen or if you’re looking at names at the end of your 2004 fantasy draft, Patterson’s isn’t a bad name to call out.
There’s something about baseball that makes you feel a part of it. Sure, I know football is more popular because it’s easy and it’s marketed well. The thing is, football requires no commitment and just becomes a big party you go to every week, if you’re really into it.
Baseball, on the other hand, requires a certain level of personal investment. “We” is a term I often hear-–and say–when watching baseball. Greg Rakestraw always gets on me when I do SportsDesk because I start saying “We just need to get rid of Antonio Alfonseca” or “Every time Prior’s on the mound, we win.” I yell at the screen, make calls to friends, and generally agonize over a team that I have little to no effect on.
But I’m convinced I have this personal power over the team. I’m sure that you think you have it at times. I sit on the couch in front of the big screen, WGN glaring green and the little box at the top left taunting me with a Cardinals lead. I yell at umpires, scream at players, plead with Dusty, and in the end, begin watching Black Hawk Down because I just can’t take it anymore. Naturally, my powers kick in after a while, and by not watching I help the Cubs make an amazing comeback–just the kind that makes me wish I’d seen it, but like Schroedinger’s cat, it’s dead when you look. I’m sure fans of every team know that psychic surety. Come on, Baseball–market that passion.
My e-mail box was bursting when I got power back this morning, all wanting to know what I thought about the 130-pitch outing of Mark Prior. (Hey, Keith Woolner is the PAP expert around here!) One of my best Velocity Project sources sent me a stunning report and luckily, I had multiple sources (and a gun) on this one. Prior is establishing himself as one of those freaks that actually gets stronger as a game goes on. While he would hit 93 in the first couple innings, he was as high as 97–the highest I have him recorded–in the eighth. While I’m glad Dusty overrode Prior’s desire to complete the game, I’m not tremendously concerned with Prior’s health. I am more concerned about his short-term effectiveness, with short-term in this situation meaning the next two to three weeks. While flags fly forever, I think Kerry Wood should be required to stand in front of Dusty on every pitch Prior or Carlos Zambrano makes over 120. He doesn’t need to say anything, just point to that fading scar on his right elbow. I think Dusty will get the point. I think.
The Twins have been a problem area all year–banged up, poor roster construction, odd decisions–and yet they remain close in the AL Central. With Doug Mientkiewicz having a recurrence of his ongoing wrist problems and Jacque Jones dealing with a painful lower back (and Astroturf on his home field), the Twins will be juggling players around and making use of some of their callups, like Michael Cuddyer. They are closer to getting Eric Milton back–he’s made his first rehab start in Ft. Myers, a team in the FSL playoffs–but his effectiveness remains a big question mark.
As I get ready to head to Cleveland and meet everyone at the first Cleveland Feed–and due to cancellations, we have ONE slot open (first come, first serve)–and I resist the urge to throw solid objects through my TV screen, I’m also excited about Baseball Prospectus Radio. If you haven’t heard the latest show in the archive, check it out: Scott did a phenomenal job with the Fay Vincent interview. The upcoming show is going to be exciting as well. Tonight, I had the chance to speak with one legend, and tomorrow I’ll speak with another. I hope you’ll like the results.
Powered by Oaken Barrel Gnaw Bone Pale Ale, onto the injuries…
So there I was, sitting at Victory Field, ready for the last three-hour baseball talk-fest of the season, ready with facts, opinions, and data at my fingertips. I expected calls and debates and excitement for one of the best “pennant chases” of recent memory. And Larry Bird had to go and screw the whole thing up. You see, I live in a state where basketball is king and one legend pink-slipping another is big, big, big news. Baseball was pushed aside and for about 40 minutes, and I had to talk hoops. It was an ugly scene. Tonight, let’s stick to baseball.
Oh, and how cool is it that Julio Franco finally admitted his age?
Maybe I’ll get a scoop on Milton Bradley this weekend as I make my first trip to the Jake, but in all likelihood, I won’t get to see him play. Bradley continues to have problems with his lower back, and if things don’t improve quickly, the Indians have made noise about shutting him down. Bradley is an interesting case–a player who had something of a breakout, but someone who could be forced out by a crowded outfield next season, and the economics of a suddenly fiscally conscious franchise. I still see Bradley as Albert Belle Lite, in both the positive and negative senses. On the other hand, I will probably get to see Omar Vizquel play. After months recovering from knee problems, Vizquel will be back in the lineup for the last month, filling in where many thought Brandon Phillips would be entrenched now.
The recently re-signed Scott Hatteberg is dealing with chronic lower back pain. Now there’s a sentence you really don’t want to see as an A’s fan. Hatteburg has back spasms from time to time, usually treatable and not serious in the long-term, but this situation hasn’t gone away or even gotten significantly better for any extended period of time. I know many people are at a loss to explain the A’s re-upping the star of Moneyball, but from a medhead standpoint, I can’t help them with that.
Like always, some good stuff from the reader e-mail, as Richard Dansky checks in with his report on Billy Koch and his first outing at Triple-A: “I saw Billy Koch throw an inning last night against the Durham Bulls. He topped out around 94 mph, but really didn’t have a lot of movement on anything he threw and got cuffed around. When Jorge Cantu can get around on a Billy Koch fastball and pull it, it’s not because Cantu’s suddenly been possessed by the spirit of Vern Stephens.” Hey readers–quit being funnier than me. Isn’t being smarter enough?
Today, if a short UTK isn’t enough for you, I would like to point you to the interview that Nate Silver and I did with Rickey Henderson last week. I only wish that I had my radio gear with me for that one, but I’ll be sure to target Rickey for BPR soon. He was insightful, intelligent, open, polite (once leaving us to say something to a couple teammates, but stating loud enough for us to hear that “I have to finish this interview; I’ll be back”), and he never once referred to himself in the third person. This summer, I spoke to Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson–two of the best players I’ve ever had the privilege of seeing play. I’m grateful and humbled by the experience and opportunity.
And if that’s not enough, there’s a new edition of Baseball Prospectus Radio up. The lead guests are myself and Derek Zumsteg, getting grilled by Scott McCauley on what our weeks were like in the wake of the Pete Rose revelations. If you’re not sick of hearing about it–as Jayson Stark calls it, “The story that never ends”–then it’s a pretty good show and the first I ever recorded with no coffee in me.
The strained hip should have been a signal. People came out of the woodwork, claiming that Mark Mulder had been experiencing pain for weeks, but again, the leakproof A’s kept the information out of the hands of everyone who follows injury information. Mulder’s injury, as you know, is a stress fracture, not a muscle strain–but what does that mean? The definition of stress fracture is clear cut, but the specifics of Mulder’s acetabular fracture are much less clear. First, we have no clear cut facts from media reports or sources. Second, the information is a bit unclear. Most reports have the fracture in the femoral head, or acetabulum. Most stress fractures of this type happen at the femoral neck. Add in the note from Susan Slusser that Mulder cannot golf and could have “broken his leg,” and the signs point to the neck again.
Bottom line: Mulder is, for all intents and purposes, done for 2003, both regular and post-season. But what does this injury mean to Mulder’s future? Hip injuries are notoriously slow to heal due to poor blood flow in the area, but I haven’t heard anyone trotting out the Bo Jackson comparisons yet, and hopefully they won’t. With proper healing on a normal timeframe, there’s little to indicate that Mulder couldn’t return for 2004 fully healthy.
The A’s pushed Mark Mulder onto the DL while he rehabs a strained hip. As with Randy Johnson’s knee, this is Mulder’s right (plant) leg, which understandably takes a lot of impact and torque in the pitching motion, even with great mechanics like Mulder. Mulder will miss at least two starts while on the list, but since he will be able to keep his arm loose, he shouldn’t need much work before jumping back into the rotation. Expect the A’s to be aggressive but smart with his rehab.
Trevor Hoffman is headed to the Cal League, which should be interesting to see. If he starts a game–as is often the practice for relievers in the minors–will the Storm play “Hell’s Bells” at the beginning of the game? How menacing will Hoffman look with the eyeball lid? How will Hoffman look pitching against Casey Kotchman on Saturday? These are all questions that we should know by next time we meet. The plan on Hoffman is two “starts” at Lake Elsinore, a couple more at Double-A Mobile, and then back to San Diego sometime after rosters expand on September 2.
Giants starter Jesse Foppert left last night’s game with numbness in his fingers due to a nerve problem in his elbow. You’re right, that sounds bad. Reader Loren Jones did the research and thinks it’s cubital tunnel syndrome, which is correctible, but not unheard of in pitchers. Foppert will have tests and we’ll know more by the weekend.
The Astros got a dose of Mark Prior on Wednesday, but they also got some good news regarding their ace, Roy Oswalt. Oswalt, torn groin and all, threw on Tuesday with a “minimum of pain.” He’ll take the mound on Friday to test the leg, and if all goes well, he could be back in the lineup sometime the following week. I can’t imagine a scenario where Oswalt could stay healthy for an extended period of time, but the Astros have managed to convince him to take on the risk.
Another day, another diagnosis for Curt Schilling. The injury to his knee is now described as a bone bruise, but trainer Paul Lessard has been quoted as saying there is no structural damage. As before, the symptoms don’t match the diagnosis well, and if the femur and tibia impacted, one would expect some damage to the meniscus. A torn meniscus’ most common symptom? Locking, which is how Schilling described his injury when it occurred. Keep your eye on Schilling’s next start.
The Expos have shut down Tony Armas Jr. and Orlando Hernandez for the remainder of the season. It’s unclear how both fit into the plans of the Homeless Expos in 2004, but both are likely to need relocation services in one form or another. The bigger question is what type of team would take a flyer on either of these types of pitchers–the young but injury prone hurler on the downslope of potential, or the wily veteran with the Hollywood story but questionable age.
The A’s usually don’t have to deal with injuries to their pitchers and as we all know, never have to deal with arm problems. In Tuesday’s game, Mark Mulder left the game with a strained right hip. It’s too early to tell yet how serious the injury will be and if he might miss a start or more. As I reported yesterday, I still think that Tim Hudson will be pushed back, despite signals from the A’s that he’ll be ready. I say this in the most respectful way, but we can’t trust the A’s completely when it comes to injuries. No one is better at keeping things close to the vest, but unlike most things the A’s try to do, this one gives them no advantage. In Tuesday’s game with the A’s, Derek Lowe was forced out just after Mulder. Lowe had a recurrence of blistering on his pitching thumb. Reports conflict on the location of the blister and whether it is the same area where Lowe had blisters in June. Again, I’ll point out that even a small injury such as this could be the difference between the Sox making the playoffs or not. I’ll be following this one closely.
I discounted it at the time when Bartolo Colon bent over late in a start just a few weeks back, but that could have been the sign of things to come. Colon has been rocked lately, leaving pitches up, lacking velocity and command, and ceding the team ace status to Mark Buehrle. As with Derek Lowe, even the slightest injury could be the tipping point for the tight AL Central, and Colon’s next start will be pivotal.
The Chicago talk radio circuit was pounding Kerry Wood after a sub-par performance on Saturday. News of Wood’s back injury came out and got slammed. Some were branding him a pouter or someone looking for an excuse, but people are looking at the wrong words in that quote. The injury is a minor one, more of an annoyance than anything that truly affects Wood’s normal pitching motion. Still, Wood is following the Nolan Ryan career path, minus the no-hitters and longevity…so far.
David Wells and the Yankees will make a decision about his scheduled start on Thursday after a bullpen session on Monday. Wells had been Eckersleyesque this season with his control until his back altered his motion and forced him to do what one scout called “arming the ball” more. Wells may be the pitcher most helped by the return of Jose Contreras in a couple weeks (and perhaps Jon Lieber) if he can get some extra rest in the first half of September, then two or three starts to shake things loose for October.
Doug Mientkiewicz had something that sounds unusual on the surface–two cortisone shots in one session–but it makes more sense once you know that he has two different problem areas in the same wrist. Mientkiewicz’s wrist is so problematic at this stage of the season that even after coming off the DL, a routine play forced him out. The Twins will look to Matt LeCroy in the short term and Justin Morneau in the long term, once he’s recalled from Triple-A.