Lots of questions about J.D. Drew coming in the Inbox with his name coming up in trade rumors. Drew is well into his career and the idea that he’s suddenly going to become a player that is healthy for a full season is not impossible, but certainly not something any team should rely on. Instead of Mickey Mantle, I think Rondell White is a more likely comparable–when healthy, quite productive. In the right situation, handled properly, not saddled with the weight of expectations, and with the proper rest and backup, Drew could help a team.
Kazuhiro Sasaki had another bullpen session, this time with two main differences–more pitches and a crouching catcher. Sasaki is making sudden, rapid progress in his return from fractured ribs and the time off can do nothing but help his balky shoulder. With Arthur Rhodes and Jeff Nelson struggling some and no trade on the horizon, the M’s would welcome back Sasaki as soon as he can be effective.
As Edgar Martinez is slowed (if that’s possible) by a calf strain, the Mariners will rest him some and remind him that running really isn’t something they expect him to do. He hasn’t been the type that could run out an infield single at any point in his career. The M’s smart usage of Martinez gives us an interesting look into what might be the perfect situation for none other than Ken Griffey Jr.. With Martinez in the twilight of his career, Griffey could slot right into the DH that doesn’t run slot. While he’s a different type of hitter than Martinez, I think many could see him excelling in that slot and in that ballpark. I have no idea how that could work financially, but as we’ve seen, no deal is impossible if it works for everyone. Maybe, for Junior, he can go home again.
There are a few things that came out after Randy Johnson’s first start back. First, Johnson had only minimal swelling in his knee after the start. That’s a very good sign. Second, he had exceptional command, getting more than 70% of his pitches through the strike zone. Next, a good Tivo-enabled look at his delivery showed that his soft landing took some of his velocity. According to Tom House’s book, The Pitching Edge, a stable front base is a must for transferring energy and thereby velocity.
As Junior Spivey and Danny Bautista return from the DL after significant time out, some of the younger players that have kept the Diamondbacks in the divisional race will get squeezed out of the roster, and sent back to Tucson. There’s no team in recent memory that went so far from the intended roster construction only to return to it later in the season, so I don’t have a good point of comparison.
Larry Walker and the Rockies are debating a trip to the DL after tests on his hip were inconclusive. A hernia still hasn’t been ruled out, and he was certainly moving gingerly last week in Pac Bell (Granted, so was Barry Bonds). There’s confusing noise coming from Colorado on this one, so it seems like the trip to the DL would solve Clint Hurdle’s roster challenges and give Walker a chance to heal himself up from whatever it is that’s ailing him.
So, did anything happen while I was gone?
In an effort to keep what’s going to be a long edition to a non-Kahrlian length, and from ending up in this report with carpal tunnel agony, I’ll just say that my trip to the Bay Area was amazing. Not only was I in a small, hot conference room with what might be the most baseball mind-power short of the Winter Meetings…(or, then again)…I was able to visit Pac Bell Park, watch Barry Bonds take BP from the side of the batting cage, and spend a half hour talking with Stan Conte about everything sports med. I thank everyone involved for making it a great trip.
Onto the injuries…
Going through the data and talking to sources brings up an interesting quirk. There are often differences cited between the AL and NL, but never such a gap in injury statistics. The AL is healthier by a large margin–if I quoted the number, you’d be stunned–and there’s no reason that jumps out. Some have long thought that the DH slot could keep some players off the DL, allowing someone to hit while not completely healthy, say Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols or Edgar Martinez. There’s no great “health gap” in any other year since adoption of the rule, so I’m loathe to assign credit or blame. There’s no changes in player patterns, medical staffs, or park effect to explain it, so in retrospect, finding that answer will be the greatest challenge and potential lesson for medheads in the second half. That said, it could be mere fluke and the NL could get really healthy for a couple months, but I don’t think so.
Remember that I grade the teams based on a couple factors–overall health compared to both league and team averages, ability to get players back ahead of schedule, lost time to DL, and effect of injuries on team results. These are not terribly scientific and should not be used for wagering. In no instance am I assigning blame; instead, I merely hope to allow comparison and quantify effect. They’re not worth arguing over.
The health of the American League has been, well, average. Teams near the top of their divisions have dealt with injuries more than they’ve avoided or overcome them. As baseball heads into the second half, teams will watch for signs of fatigue, and the interplay between team medical staffs and the field staff becomes key. A trainer spotting bad mechanics, keeping a player from turning a tweak into a tear, or returning a guy ahead of schedule, can be worth a win or two. I grade the teams based on a number of factors: overall health compared to both league and team averages, ability to get players back ahead of schedule, lost time to DL, and effect of injuries on team results. These are not terribly scientific and should not be used for wagering. In no instance am I assigning blame; instead, I merely hope to allow comparison and quantify effect. They’re not worth arguing over.
As Fox added about three mph to every pitch in last night’s game, I’m glad that the radar readings don’t count. I’m also glad that the “automatic” closer types are anything but automatic, and that the shiny closer tag really doesn’t make someone any better a pitcher when it counts. I thought that using Keith Foulke as the AL closer just had to burn Kenny Williams’ butt.
I’m most happy, however, that my instincts were wrong and that no one managed to injure themselves. The last thing anyone wants to see in an All-Star Game is one of their heroes leave the game on a stretcher. Despite the best efforts of Bud’s Boys, the All-Star Game was a great exhibition.
Well, we’ve made it through the Futures Game and Home Run Derby without anyone getting injured. There’s still tomorrow’s game–the one that “counts”–however, and I’m halfway expecting somebody to go all Pete Rose on some catcher. Let’s just hope that the players aren’t buying into the hype as much as the entire Fox network seems to be.
That said, as expected, it was a quiet day on Monday, which gave people more time to check out the archive of Baseball Prospectus Radio and email me. People were equally divided on whether it was good interview with Jim Palmer or a blindside hatchet job. Let me assure you the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and that Mr. Palmer had more than one opportunity to speak for himself, and he declined each opportunity. I’ve given his agent the message that he has an open invitation for a full hour on BPR to discuss the game in whatever format he wishes, so I’ve done all I can to be fair despite my desire to go Paul Teutel on him. Let’s hope he does all he can to educate himself about the game he played so well.
Randy Johnson will have one more rehab start–this time at Class-A (oh, those poor kids)–before returning to Arizona. His knee has been problematic, but not so much that he’s been behind. The plan is to use him normally, but to spot him some extra rest when possible. The D’backs have found that they had more pitching depth than anyone expected, so some creative roster moves will help. Keeping Johnson balanced between useage and health will be a big test for Bob Brenly, Paul Lessard, and Chuck Kniffin. (And no, Curt Schilling’s first start performance has nothing to do with either his injury or Questec. As with Barry Zito, some pitchers just have bad days, weeks, and even years.)
The Brewers have problems all over the diamond as well as up and down the organization, but one of the brighter spots is Ben Sheets. Sheets has been effective, but he’s always had a tender back. Taking a swing in his last start appears to have aggravated his back. He’s in the Miller Park training room getting treatment twice a day and might not make his scheduled Thursday start. It’s not serious yet, but it bears watching for a team with no other options.
Kazuhiro Sasaki is finally off the stairs, has his luggage (or whatever) put away, and he’s back on the mound. While a mini-session in the pen is a long way from a return to closer duties in Seattle, it’s a good first step. Sasaki is still a minimum of three weeks from returning to games and Bob Melvin will continue to drive Derek Zumsteg nuts for the full three weeks.
There is nothing worse in my world than what happened yesterday morning. On the road back from a meeting, I was ready for a couple of calls from radio stations. I always like going on the radio to talk baseball, whether it’s local, my own show, or anything from a major market to a college station. Instead of getting the calls and making the trip seem a bit shorter, though, I received no calls. All of this was a bit confusing until I realized my phone was dead. For those that know me, the idea of me without a cell phone is like me without a goatee or a latte; it just doesn’t seem like Will. After four hours without service and nearly an hour on the phone with a service provider that will remain nameless (but uses a hot Welsh woman in their ads), I have service and a bunch of messages. I missed calls from sources, both stations, UPS, and a former client. You can bet I’m changing my cell phone service in a hurry. Luckily, I got service back in time to make most of my calls, apologize to those I missed, and get what I need for today’s UTK.
Another upside to the day was collecting almost all of the money from the All-Star Fan Fest tickets charity auction. We’ll have $280 to donate to the American Cancer Society soon. I’d like to thank everyone that bid and the Indianapolis Indians for donating the tickets to us. Our donation will be made in honor of Alyssa Lewandowski and our thoughts and prayers are with her and her family.
Vin Scully broke the news that Brian Jordan has elected to have season ending surgery to re-repair his patellar tendon. Jordan has indicated that surgery likely means the end of his career, but this hasn’t been made official yet. Jordan’s loss will further cripple an already limping Dodger offense. The question of insurance may decide how Dan Evans moves forward, but the opacity of these transactions means we’ll likely never know the effect.
While there’s no hard data, there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to implicate the hard turf at Stade Olympique. Jim Thome is the latest to have problems with his back there, and the Phillies aren’t taking any chances. Thome was lifted during Tuesday’s game and was out of the lineup for Wednesday. Team sources say he’ll be back at first when the team moves on to New York.
Transaction talk isn’t my beat, but some moves say more about a team than anything else off the field. With Kevin Mench down for eight weeks while his fractured hand heals, the Rangers called up Laynce Nix. I’m sure Jamey Newberg (of the phenomenal Newberg Report) is excited to see the future in Arlington, but one problem with seeing the future is that it usually means the present sucks. Mench should return in the normal timeframe with no serious effects. There were some rumors that Mench was headed to Cleveland, but a source on both sides of that deal denied anything was close.
I had 600 emails–really, 600 even–when I came in early Tuesday morning. Sure, some were spam, some were from meetup.com, and some were in regards to the Charity Auction. Most, predictably, were regarding Corey Patterson. Saying it was mild was an obvious misstep on my part and proof that seeing an injury doesn’t tell the full story. Patterson’s hyperextension tore his left ACL and medial meniscus. Early reports had a torn MCL as well, but those proved false. Patterson’s done for the season and will go under the knife in around a week. The best case scenario is that he’s fully recovered around next year’s spring training and resumes patrolling center in Wrigley.
The normal goal of any rehab start is to get through it without injury, shake off some of the rust, and make another step towards an effective return to the major leagues. In other words, remain healthy. Randy Johnson met every goal in his first rehab start on Saturday, going four perfect innings on 44 pitches. Johnson will make two more starts with Tucscon, each with an increased pitch limit, before returning to the D’back rotation.
Curt Schilling is just ahead of Johnson’s timetable, making one more start in Tucscon, then getting in a start for Arizona just before the ASB. That this start will likely come against the division-leading Giants says a lot about the confidence the organization has in Schilling. Schilling’s rehab start may not have been as dominant, but is was equally as successful and has to not only bother the Giants and the fading-fast Dodgers as well. Danny Bautista and Junior Spivey are also getting closer and the Diamondbacks are beginning to look like the team Joe Garagiola had in his head when the season began…or perhaps he has one more move to make.
The Expos are once again discussing the timetable for Vladimir Guerrero as early August, but the crew in Miami working on Vlad is much more encouraged. I’ll wager that this is just the Expos hedging against a setback, but let’s remember that getting Guerrero back before the non-waiver trading deadline could be important. Lots of teams will be inquiring, even if the Expos say they’re not selling. With Minaya a leading candidate for the Mets GM slot and MLB owning the team, who would stop a deal like that?
The news that Randy Johnson had a setback during his rehab is a bit overblown. Jim Duquette seemed surprised by the reports that Mike Piazza was throwing from a crouch. Eric Chavez had X-rays on his foot Wednesday that came back negative. Trevor Hoffman is playing catch. The Pirates are using Brian Giles in CF. Craig Counsell is close to a return after missing much of the season with a thumb injury. Bad news for Luke Prokopec and his comeback. Will Carroll has all the injury news in today’s Under The Knife.
the Diamondbacks are back in the race after an amazing run–and yes, they’ve done it without Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. Schilling looks like he’ll win the race back, but he may be rushing himself slightly. He’s due for a rehab start on Wednesday and the Snakes think he’ll get in one start in the majors before the ASB. Johnson, as we’ve known, will head to Triple-A one night later with his first MLB start just after the ASB. Johnson made it through his side sessions with a minimum of problems, so things are looking up in the desert. I guess the Rockies read UTK Tuesday and decided they’d better do something with Shawn Chacon. I think they had an idea something was wrong well before reading my column, however. Chacon heads to the DL with an elbow strain, but an MRI ruled out major damage inside his pitching arm. Chacon’s been pitching way over his head, but it stinks to see a guy come back to earth like that. When you look up “cascade” in the dictionary, there should be a picture of J.D. Drew. His knee problems have led to hip and ankle injuries. His hip injury has now caused problems in his surgically repaired right knee. Add in back injuries and a swing he’s had trouble getting on track and you wonder why the Cardinals don’t drop him on the DL and try to get him healthy. Oh, that’s right, it’s far too logical for TLR. We knew Drew would be slow coming back, but it may be 2004 before he’s close to full-go.
Will Carroll gives the Diamondbacks credit for overcoming a rash of injuries, frets over Matt Morris’ injury, marvels over Brandon Claussen’s quick return, and casts doubt on Zach Day’s comeback. All that and more in today’s edition of Under The Knife.
Vladimir Guerrero’s getting closer to a return. Hot streak or not, the Diamondbacks need Johnson and Schilling back. Kiko Calero and Tony Womack joined the knee injury brigade. Austin Kearns may benefit from resting his sore shoulder. Plus more injury news from Will Carroll in today’s Under The Knife.