The gasp was actually audible in Great American when Ken Griffey pulled off a swing, clutching at his shoulder. It was an emotional roller-coaster, as Griffey took the next Mike Mussina shot into the bleachers, then left the game. The worst-case scenario of a reinjured right shoulder wasn’t the case, luckily. Instead, Griffey appears to have injured his right biceps. It may not be a cascade, but likely, Griffey is using more arm in his swing or perhaps got his strength a bit out of balance in all the rehab done to get him back. He’s currently listed as day-to-day, but with the depth the Reds have in the outfield–and Bob Boone’s cluelessness in how to utilize it properly–they can afford to take their time.
Curiously, the Dodgers listed ‘strained medial collateral ligament’ as the cause when they placed Darren Dreifort on the DL today. The current thought is that the arthritic problems in Dreifort’s knee were the result of a cascade. This particular cascade was the result of the lack of cartilage causing a hypermobile joint, overstressing the ligaments. Finally, the MCL was strained a bit too much and now Dreifort once again finds himself on the DL. For now, he’ll avoid surgery and will hope that a new bracing system will help him pitch. The Dodgers are working hard to figure out how to best use Dreifort to maximum advantage while minimizing his exposure.
While it’s not a big breaking news story to UTK readers, Troy Percival is expected to return to the Angels bullpen on Saturday. The worry now is that he’s altered his motion significantly enough to endanger his arm in…yes, a cascade. There was an article yesterday that had a scout worried about the torque that Percival was putting on his arm since he’d altered the leg kick. I haven’t seen the motion, but it’s worth tucking that tidbit away. In other Halo news, Darin Erstad appears to be doing well in his rehab and is due back early next week.
On second thought, maybe that is broken. An MRI showed a small fracture and a chip on the pitching hand of Curt Schilling. This isn’t an indictment of Paul Lessard or the D’backs staff–everyone I talked to said this is possible and that the MRI was timely and definitive. Schilling’s biggest problem is not holding the ball, as has been reported, but the extension of the hand as he releases. The timetable for his return will be based almost entirely around how fast he can extend the hand pain-free and symptom-free. Most of the guesses I’m hearing are around a month, which is definitely bad news for the Snakes.
The training room in the BOB is a crowded place these days. Matt Mantei is in there getting a cortisone shot in his pitching shoulder, Mike Koplove is getting treatment, Brandon Webb is working out his tendinitis and should be back in the minimum, David Dellucci is still a bit concussed and cut up after a collision, and Randy Johnson is still a week away from taking the mound. That’s a lot of bodies.
The Dodgers are trying to figure ways around the problem of Darren Dreifort. Talk has backed off from surgery and instead, they’re going to the “Sunday Pitcher” theory. (I’m sure someone will step up and tell me who that theory was named after.) Dreifort would start on a schedule different from the other pitchers, spotting him in on extended rest with the hopes of getting 20 starts from him and having him available in the playoffs, if they make it that far.
The Braves deal with injuries to the Jones boys. The Reds’ pitching experiment has been a disappointment so far this year. The DL is not a magic elixir. Will Carroll covers these and other topics in today’s UTK.
Reports from Boston indicate that Pedro Martinez is coming along according to plan. The Red Sox–like always–are being both cautious yet aggressive with their ace. Juggling the need to keep Pedro healthy while squeezing every inning they can out of him is a tough job. Expect Pedro back late this week on a strict pitch count.
Bonus UTK points to Chris Bosio and the Devil Rays. Bosio has been working with Joe Kennedy to alter his pitching mechanics and the early results looked good. Kennedy brought his velocity up to his normal low-90s rather than the mid-80s where he’d been living (and getting shelled.) There’s the chance that Kennedy was just over-exerting, but the mechanics looked great in the few pitches I got to see on MLB.TV. Still, Kennedy’s shoulder began to stiffen up and the Devil Rays smartly took Kennedy out. Adjusting mechanics is always difficult and frought with danger to young arms, so this was a smart, cautious move with a guy that could be their ace.
This was probably not part of the plan for the Diamondbacks when they traded Byung-Hyun Kim away…or was it? Did the health of Matt Mantei or Mike Koplove really affect the decision to add a 3B like Shea Hillenbrand? I don’t think so, really. With two closer candidates down with shoulder problems, the Snakes will turn to another sidewinder, Mike Myers, to show up in the ninth. Looking at the Michael Wolverton’s Reliever Evaluation Tools, Myers looks to be quite a dropoff, but an efficient use of Oscar Villareal might help.
There is no other hospital I have ever seen that includes its Astroturf infield in the tour. Hidden away just off the Interstate in northern Cincinnati, I was invited to go into, what for me was essentially the mouth of the beast. Swerving through the new construction of a suburban office park, almost anonymous from the outside, Beacon Orthopaedic Clinic beckoned me to come inside, to let my guard down, and to face the man I’d criticized in print more than any other. It was the equivalent of Rush Limbaugh being invited into the Clinton White House. It was Doug Pappas being invited to a Selig family picnic.
In my years as an injury analyst, there was no name that had come up more than Ken Griffey Jr.. When speaking of Griffey, there was no way to avoid involving Dr. Tim Kremchek in the discussion. Like many, my opinion of Kremchek had descended from joking derision. My views were colored by incidents which, from the outside, supported my views. More recently though, Reds Assistant General Manager Brad Kullman convinced me to keep an open mind, that I might be wrong about Kremchek. I decided to try and find out for myself.
It all comes back to health.
Yesterday’s Diamondbacks/Red Sox trade hinged not on talent–that was easy enough to agree on–and not on money, but on how the health of a couple of D’backs pitchers would affect their depth. Whether you think the Sox helped their pitching, the Snakes helped their putrid offense, or that there will be more deals cascading from this one, ignoring health just isn’t possible.
I’ll leave the trade analysis to others here at BP, but this is one where the numbers I watch (VORP, MLVr) don’t agree with how most will analyze this trade.
Onto the injuries….
Scuffy Moehler’s career hangs in the balance; the Royals are being deterred by aches and pains; Mo Vaughn might finally hang it up; and Scott Williamson is pitching pain free. All that and much more Thursday’s titillating edition of UTK.
As I reported yesterday, Eric Hinske is out for four to six weeks after electing to have surgery. The doctors will remove his fractured right hamate bone and he should return pain-free. While this is a blow to the Jays, Hinske (-.112 MLVr) has been hitting well below both last year’s performance (.146) and his PECOTA projection (.147). Mike Bordick (-.077) is actually a slight upgrade based on current performance, but without the pesky upside.
With young pitchers, erring on the side of caution is seldom a bad move. For
the Royals, keeping Runelvys Hernandez healthy for the long term is
much more important than his missing one or even two starts in May. Hernandez
had a fine bullpen session, but after a discussion with Tony Pena and John
Cumberland, the Royals placed the right-hander on the DL with elbow tendinitis. He is eligible to return on June 5, meaning he should miss only one start.
This time, it happened on the field. David Wells will miss a start
after exhibiting a “giant [bleep]ing bruise” on his right calf, the
result of a Josh Phelps screamer Sunday afternoon. Wells will be fine
long-term, and his absence means we’ll get a good look at Jose
Contreras in his first start. Oddly, this
will be the first missed start by a Yankees pitcher this season, a fact that
surprised me when I saw it at Rotowire.
This has been one heck of a month of May. Between injury news and the Indy
500, I’ve been a busy man. Thanks to ESPN 950 for allowing me access to the
one of the coolest events of my life.
With the race behind me, I am ready to return my full focus to baseball, and
have a couple of features coming up, including one on Dr. Tim Kremchek of the
Cincinnati Reds that will run this week.
Last night was a night full of team troubles–the type of night that separates the contenders from the pretenders. The good teams will deal with it by using their depth and remaining flexible, while the bad ones will fall apart and blame things like chemistry. I have to say, I’m beginning to root for a collapse for some teams, because at rock-bottom might come the desperation that could lead to a team being run by Paul DePodesta, a Brad Kullman, or a Josh Byrnes. If injury is the ruinous road to riches…well, I’ll be the tour guide. Onto the injuries…
Darin Erstad’s hamstring is not just failing to heal on a normal timetable, it’s actually getting worse. According to team sources, the strain (and remember that a strain of any type involves tearing) is near the very bottom of his hamstring. A cortisone injection is very uncommon for this type of injury and there may be no comparable injury in baseball. A physician from the UTK Advisory Board said: “They’re acknowledging that they’re going way out, that the tendon could be damaged by this injection, but the next step might be surgery. Given that, a bit of thinking differently is worth the chance.” Erstad is at best still weeks away and the chance continues to increase that he may lose a very significant portion, if not all, of the 2003 season. That extension he signed late last year is looking like a bad deal for the Angels.
Orioles fans haven’t had much to cheer for so far, but the play of Jerry Hairston Jr. has been solid in the leadoff slot. One foul ball to the foot later, Hairston is lost for eight weeks. The fracture of his fifth (outside) metatarsal bone should not affect him long-term, even with his speed game. In the scheme of things, a fracture is the most easily projected injury –bones heal properly in almost every case and unlike muscles, tendons or ligaments, they leave little changed in their wake.
The injury is serious, but there’s an amazing amount of wrong-headed and ignorant information out there about the injury suffered by Mike Piazza. Even the AP report that ran on ESPN.com contradicted itself. As we speculated, Piazza has an incomplete, Grade III tear of his adductor muscles, commonly known as the groin. While one or more of the muscles is torn completely and has lost structural integrity, the description of “rolling up like an accordion” isn’t accurate.
Some might remember the injury to Dean Palmer’s biceps when the muscle did, in fact, retract. Had the muscle retracted, Piazza would be recovering from surgery about now. Where the serious concern is for Piazza going forward is what I’ll term the Ken Griffey Effect; will this injury be the beginning of a cycle that causes a major reduction in value?
If I knew this for certain I’d be the GM of a team, but we can make educated guesses based on position, age, injury history. Piazza’s at a point where his position tends to wear on players, but his injury history is a positive. According to PECOTA, Piazza’s attrition and decline rates are more-or-less inconclusive–yes, they progress, but that’s to be expected for any catcher in his mid-30s. It’s the comp of Johnny Bench that strikes me. At this age, Bench was barely hanging on to league-average status and just a year away from calling it a career.
With Piazza’s lifestyle, economic situation, and Q rating, all he lacks is a championship. He’s a sure Baseball Immortal, but we could be seeing the last of Mike Piazza. I hate to bring this up, but Piazza’s contract is insured.
Once again, go ahead and cringe. Mike Piazza is waiting on an MRI for his strained groin, but it was pushed back due to swelling. You almost never like to see the words “swollen” and “groin” in the same sentence, so if we’re trying to figure out the severity of Piazza’s injury, this…well, this tells us nothing. Short term, Piazza wasn’t expected back anyway, but until the results of the MRI come back, there’s not much in the way of new guidance.
Seeing that Steve Karsay was headed back to the offices of Dr. Jim Andrews should have been the first clue, but Karsay is now officially out for the season. He’ll undergo surgery on Tuesday to determine the problem in his shoulder. The guess is that there is a small tear in his rotator cuff, but the surgery is termed “exploratory.” Some Yanks’ fans will no doubt question why surgery wasn’t performed back in April when Dr. Andrews said surgery wouldn’t be necessary. The chance of someone coming back without surgery often outweighs the pain and problems of injury rehab. Dr. Andrews has become quite conservative about opening up pitchers in the last 18 months, a fact worth knowing.
Eric Hinske hit a nice long one last night, but he’s still experiencing some problems with his wrist. Reports now move away from the earlier tendinitis and focus on a “radiating bruise.” The symptomology still sounds like some sort of impingement, but we’ll continue to monitor this. The worst of this is that even in an organization that ‘gets it’ like the Jays, some are still encouraging the ‘warrior mentality.’
My Giants source tells me that Neifi Perez knew the infield fly rule. I suppose that knowing the rules is something, but I’d rather have a player who can actually play the game. Everyone this weekend seemed to lose both their concentration and their cool–and thanks to some unfortunate luck, a number of them will lose some time to injury. Let’s get right to the good stuff…
It’s very bad news for the Expos–in fact, it could barely get much worse. Just days after losing Orlando Hernandez, Les Expos took a harder hit when Tony Armas was diagnosed with tears in both his labrum and rotator cuff. Just a week ago, the reports on Armas were glowing, so I’m not sure what changed. No decision has been made on a program, but Armas will likely be making a visit to Jim Andrews, Lewis Yocum, or another leading surgeon in the next few days. I don’t foresee him avoiding surgery, but Jim Andrews has been seemingly reluctant to cut lately, preferring aggressive non-surgical therapy.
From the files of Brad Arnsberg: A good source, Lewis Shaw, wrote in with this assessment of Javier Vazquez:
“I saw Vazquez enough tonight to have serious concerns about his elbow. He strides way too far out from the windup, but more especially from the stretch. He lands with a stiff front leg from the stretch, is violent (as indicated by his head moving all over the place), and shows maximum effort. This was not the case as recently as last season. He constantly drops his elbow below his shoulder at delivery, getting no downhill angle on the baseball. Thus, from the stretch his four-seamer is flat. He torques his elbow in an effort to get life on his four-seamer, and depth on his slider. His velocity has diminished, and he sometimes gives the impression of pushing his flat four-seamer up. As recently as the spring of 2002, his four-seamer was consistently 95 mph; now it is consistently 91-93, touching 94. He appears to have lost arm strength. Thus, given his history in 2002, he might be a candidate for serious elbow injury.”
This is not good news for Expos fans or baseball fans in general. I’m hoping to hear a lot more from Lewis in the near future.
Don’t jump, Jonah.
I swear I’ll quit talking about Moneyball at some point, but I honestly think it’s the Ball Four of my generation. It’s really that good. Anyway, I spoke with a friend yesterday who works in baseball, and he said something that absolutely stuck with me: “The whole book is an indictment of what we see.” And that includes injuries too–perception and accepted wisdom are sometimes tough to fight.
Something as simple as sliding is a good test. You’ll remember a couple weeks ago, I came across some research that showed head-first slides had a lesser rate of injury and an equivalent level of severity than feet-first slides. Again, what our eyes tell us is different. Tonight we have two players in key defensive positions–guys that scouts would almost universally have “great hands”–injuring their best, perhaps only, tools by sliding headfirst.