Will Carroll covers Eli Marrero’s suspicious acid indigestion diagnosis, Scott Elarton’s long road back, and enough Angels bumps and bruises to worry even the most rabid Rally Monkey fans (look for the bite marks).
As we get closer to Opening Day, injuries are starting to take on more importance. Missing one or two games in Spring Training might mean nothing or it might mean a lost opportunity to win a job. It could mean that a retro trip to the List is about to happen or it could be the start of a cursed season. Each day, each injury is just part of the amazing journey that is any baseball season. If this spring is any indication, we’re in for one heck of a journey.
It’s not often that someone finds the answer to a question that we’ve been asking for years, but during today’s BPR taping, Mat Olkin hit me with a thunderbolt. Through the always amazing Retrosheet and the work of David Smith, Mat was able to find something back in 2001–pitch counts for the late 1940s and 1950s. It’s often an argument of the old school that most pitchers of that era threw more innings and completed more games. The argument goes that pitchers today are by extension being babied. Mat pointed out that pitchers were much more efficient–to the tune of completing games with 110 pitches.
Sheldon Ocker shares tidbits on the Indians’ third base job and spars with Will Carroll over pitch counts, St. Louis may soon need Dane Iorg to plug its outfield holes, Kaz Sasaki enjoys self-flagellation, and Will reminds Kevin Brown supporters not to get their hopes up.
The media gets A-Rod’s injury right, aces that may not make it out for Opening Day, Grudzielanek’s injury reduces the Cubs’ 2B job to a dogfight between Hill, Martinez, and Bump Wills, and Will Carroll’s bizarre love for Wily Mo Pena lives on.
Will’s quick Pizza Feed and Tout Wars wrap-up. Are goofy arm-slot experiments the key to A.J. Burnett’s future success? Chris Singleton’s hurting; will anyone notice? The Cubs’ Opening Day starter may be determined by an ear infection, and an update on injured middle fingers around the league.
Well, if you’ve ever wanted to hear me talk for three hours straight, you’ve missed your chance. Given the way my voice currently feels (and sounded yesterday on the radio), I doubt I’ll ever do that again. Even so, the Indy Pizza Feed on Wednesday night was an unqualified success. We had a great crowd, gave out some prizes, had some great food, and talked baseball, baseball, baseball. I can’t wait for the next one…and don’t have to! I’ll be at the Chicago Pizza Feed on Saturday. Yes, there will definitely be another Indy Feed–and as great as the Oaken Barrel was, we may just have it in a much larger venue next time…hint, hint. If you’re in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, or St. Louis, let me know. Feeds are being considered for your area. The downside of the Feed on Wednesday was that I got in far too late to get a UTK in by deadline. Don’t worry–we’ll catch up today. Let’s go….
I’m really having some problems with the story that 16 White Sox players were preparing to “fail” a random steroid test in order to make testing mandatory in Major League Baseball through 2005. First, the players being able to organize some form of protest makes me wonder about the “random” portion; and the idea of a small group of players going strongly against the negotiated position of their union bothers me even further. I’m on record as being against the current drug testing policy, but in this case, I’m unsure that the ends justify the means. In a number of phone calls today, I’m hearing hints that there’s much, much more to the story than just the issue of steroids. I don’t mean to tease, but in potential minefield stories, I want to make sure the facts are correct, double-checked, and that the story is well told. One of the main advantages of coming to BP was that when situations occur where something is out of my wheelhouse, we have someone in almost every area that can step up and do a great job.
As a political animal, I usually find myself on the side of the libertarians. As such, the debate surrounding the ban of ephedra had me on both sides of the argument quickly. While my stated position that ephedra and other performance enhancing drugs–effective or ineffective, legal or illegal–has no place in baseball or any sport, I also know that the market should be free to the utmost extent and that ban or not, players will likely use a substance anyway. Watching “Fear Factor” tonight, I saw not one, but two ads for products–Stacker 2 and Hydroxycut–that are suddenly promoting themselves as “ephedra-free.” This brings up two points: that the market will move from one product to another as quickly as possible when there are widely perceived negatives that could impact sales, and that as fast as we ban one product, another similar product will pop up in its place. As satisfying as it might be for MLB to drop a ban on ephedra at all levels and as good a PR move as it might be, in the end, it probably won’t solve anything. Education, in my opinion, remains our best hope.
The good news is that Tony Womack is healthy!
The better news is that this team is really just two men and that their effectiveness almost completely determines the course of the Diamondbacks season. As much as pitch counts, inning workloads, and almost every other measure of pitcher abuse wants to push Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling to the shelf, they continue to dominate. Given a modicum of support, these two will put up incredible numbers, and there’s no reason to believe that either will collapse. The yellow lights are up there to remind you that at some point, all good things come to an end. One or both might have a spectacular flameout and, like the Red Sox in 2001, a team built around pitching can collapse quickly. Schilling had a slight loss in both velocity and effectiveness at the end of 2002. Surprisingly, he admitted he was tired, but blamed it on a weight increase rather than workload. Schilling looked great in Nashville this winter when he met up with UTK. If anything, the fade late last year might force Bob Brenly to back off a bit. Backing off however might not be possible if the D-Backs hope to return to the playoffs.
Now playing right field for the Cards: Dane Iorg! Joe Roa could be the Phillies’ ace by Opening Day. Dan Wright: crappy pitcher or crappy injured pitcher? And Will Carroll vs. arrogance in a 12-round title fight.
Getting right into it tonight–I’ve taken on some customer service duties here at BP, and Jonah and Ryan will kill me if this gets any later! OK, honestly, I need to watch the last half of Survivor on TiVo. (BTW, if anyone has any experience with wireless home networks, please drop me an email and tell me how tough it would be to set one up linking my computer, TiVo, and the Gateway laptop I’m dreaming of. Maybe if I keep saying Gateway here and on the radio, I’ll get product.)
On March 4th, UTK included a reference to another injury analyst that should not have made it into publication. The statement was made with the intention of showing the genesis of my column, and not to disparage the ability or integrity of anyone else in the field, and I sincerely apologize for the remarks in question. Furthermore, let me go on the record and state that I have the utmost respect for the contributions and integrity of others in the field whose work inspired me in the first place.
Fernando Vina: Buff Bagwell impersonator or innocent second base collision victim? Roy Oswalt: Cy Young candidate or huge injury risk? And your jumble word of the day is IDKCYA.
There are signs that teams “get it.” I don’t think it’s any secret that the Blue Jays are one of the teams that get it. Sprung from the brain of the Athletics like Athena, the front office put together by J.P. Ricciardi can compete with the braintrust of any team. Despite revenue problems, hamstrung by contracts written in a bygone era, and having to play in the same division as the Red Sox and Yankees, the Blue Jays definitely “get it” and are headed for success.
Thanks for all the feedback from yesterday’s story. Two topics are worthy of discussion before we get into the injuries. First, the Astros THR came out and many of you disagree with my ‘out on a limb’ red light that I dropped on Roy Oswalt. I thought I had explained my gut feel enough, but it didn’t appear to do the trick. Some of Oswalt is gut, but most of it was the analysis of his motion, and the problems the injury problems Astros pitchers have had lately.
In the end, remember that a red light simply means that someone has some indicators of injury, and that you should really consider all the facts–not just injury, but history, projections, and other knowledge about the player–when analyzing his prospects for the upcoming season. Injury analysis, at some level, is actually about economics. While I’m no Doug Pappas, bear with me for a moment. If a team pays a player like Oswalt or Pedro Martinez or Kevin Brown, that player may come up lame and not produce, leaving the team with fewer resources and lesser players to try and fill the roster spots. Sometimes the risk is worth the possible reward, but not being conscious of the risk and not hedging it will buy that team a non-refundable ticket to Lastplaceville.
The second most frequent question I get after “What the [bleep] is wrong with Nick Johnson?” is “How do you do what you do?” My friend Robert Herzog called me on my radio show last year and really grilled me. He’s a friend now, but it was really an annoying question. At the time, my answer was “lots of phone calls and a lot of perseverance.” True, yes, but not really the key to it.
Becoming a baseball injury analyst was something of a wonderful accident of luck and timing. Under The Knife started as my answer to another injury analyst who gave incorrect information and answered a question with, “What do you expect for a hundred bucks?” I’d had just enough coffee in me that day to think that I could do better.