CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

BP Blogs

<< Previous Entries Next Entries >>

January 22, 2013

Minor League Update

Potential Impact Rookies (NL EAST)

Potential Impact Rookies in 2013 (NL EAST)

When we talk about "impact" rookies, it's important to note that several rookies will be getting the call to the majors and failing to help their team in any way shape or form. Coming up with a few big hits or making a couple of quality starts, however, could make a big difference at the end of a 162-game season. Beginning in the NL East, I'll be taking a look at each team and picking out some rookies who I think will make an impact on their team's success in 2013. 

Atlanta Braves

  • Evan Gattis, OF: Barring a trade or a return of free agent Michael Bourn, the 26 year-old Gattis is expected to compete for the left field job this spring. His right-handed power (34 HR in 467 at-bats between Hi-A, Double-A, and the Venezuela Winter League in 2012) is intriguing but he's less than a full season removed from being moved to the outfield from the catcher position. A few months in Triple-A will allow him to work on his defense and allow the Braves to assess whether it's at least good enough to get his bat in the lineup. His bat should help whenever he does arrive, even if it's just as a pinch-hitter.
  • Julio Teheran, RHP: After Teheran's dominating finish to the Dominican Winter League (0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 15 K in 16.2 IP over last three starts), General Manager Frank Wren acknowledged that the 21 year-old probably has a leg up in the competition for the fifth starter's spot heading into Spring Training. If he's back to the 2011 version, where he was so impressive in his first season in Triple-A, as opposed to the 2012 version when he struggled, he'll be in the majors to stay. 
  • Sean Gilmartin, LHP: In addition to one start by Teheran, nine other pitchers combined to make the other 161 regular season starts for the Braves in 2012. You have to figure that Randall Delgado will get a shot eventually, and Brandon Beachy could return in the second half after he's recovered from Tommy John surgery. And it wouldn't be surprising to see Gilmartin, the 28th pick in the 2011 draft, make his first big league start at some point during the season. While he profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter, he was near big league ready when drafted and held his own during stints in Double-A and Triple-A during his first full season. 

Miami Marlins

  • Rob Brantly, C: Small sample size or not, the left-handed hitting Brantly was impressive at the plate (.832 OPS in 100 at-bats) after coming over in a mid-season trade with the Tigers. The Marlins traded John Buck this offseason and brought in Jeff Mathis, a prototypical backup who is less of a threat to take away starts from Brantly. The 23 year-old has the necessary leadership qualities to be a big league catcher for several years.
  • Adeiny Hechavarria, SS: The 23 year-old out of Cuba will get his chance to show off his plus defensive skills as the Marlins' everyday shortstop in 2013. If he can hold his own with bat, which is a huge question mark at this point, the Marlins will be just fine at the position for a long time.
  • A.J. Ramos, RHP: Armed with a 93 MPH fastball, an assortment of secondary pitches, and an impressive 12.3 K/9 in 178 minor league appearances, the 26 year-old Ramos is ready for a regular role in the Marlins' bullpen. He finished the year in the majors, posting a 3.86 ERA while striking out 13 and walking four in 9.1 innings.
  • Grant Dayton, LHP: The Marlins already have three lefty relievers, Mike Dunn, Dan Jennings, and Scott Maine, who are ahead of him on the depth chart, but Dayton is certainly on the fast track to the majors and could be in Miami after a few months in the upper minors. 

New York Mets

  • Travis d'Arnaud, C: The 23 year-old will start the season in the minors to ensure his arbitration and free agency clock are pushed back a year and then he'll settle in as the Mets starting catcher for at least the next six-and-a-half seasons. And it shouldn't surprise you if he's an All-Star in at least two or three of those years.
  • Jeurys Familia, RHP: The verdict has nearly been reached in regards to Familia's future role as a major leaguer. Most think he'll be a setup man and the Mets could use 2013 to ease him into a late-inning role. First, they'll likely allow him to start the season in Triple-A Las Vegas' rotation just to get a little bit longer look to make sure they're not wrong on their assessment.  
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP: Matt Harvey's rookie season was a success so why not stick to the same formula with Wheeler. Harvey, who had a 2.73 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 59.1 innings over his 10 big league starts, made 20 Triple-A starts in 2012 before making his big league debut on July 26th. Depending on the state of the rotation, the 22 year-old Wheeler could get the call sooner. Either way, I wouldn't expect him to be in the minors beyond the All-Star break. 

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Darin Ruf, 1B/OF: The Phillies ignored him for most of the 2012 season despite his home run barrage in Double-A, so I kind of wanted to ignore him, too, even after they finally called him up. But the thing is, he held his own with 11 hits in 33 at-bats and three homers during his big league stint and definitely won over some Phillies fans. The 26 year-old may not be a future regular but there's a chance he can provide some right-handed pop off the bench in 2013.
  • Phillippe Aumont, RHP: The 23 year-old has an electric arsenal of pitches that could make him a dominant late-inning reliever down the road. But his inability to throw the ball where he wants is the reason he'll likely start the season in Triple-A, where he's logged 67 innings over the past two seasons with 48 walks and 96 strikeouts. If he gets in a groove, however, expect the Phillies to take advantage and call him up right away. 
  • Jonathan Pettibone, RHP: Even if 35 year-old Roy Halladay and 34 year-old Cliff Lee are capable of 200-plus innings and 32-plus starts -- yes, I think they're more than capable -- the chances of any five-man rotation staying healthy for an entire season is pretty low. As a result, the "6th starter" is becoming more and more essential in an organization. Pettibone is a strong candidate, along with Tyler Cloyd, to fill that role in 2013. The 22 year-old isn't a big time prospect but should settle in as a back-of-the-rotation starter, although he could bounce back and forth as needed this year.  

Washington Nationals

  • 3B Anthony Rendon: Barring an injury, I really don't have any idea how Rendon gets at-bats in the majors. There's nowhere for him to play, even if he does move from third base. I do expect, however, that he will be ready to help out off the bench or with an occasional start late in the season. Why leave a hitter this good in the minors when you're trying to win a division? 
  • RHP Christian Garcia: The former Yankees prospect, healthy for the first time in years for a full season, had no trouble at all with Double-A or Triple-A hitters before landing in the Nationals' bullpen in September. With the bullpen already having plenty of depth in 2013, the Nats can afford to send the 27 year-old back to Triple-A, where he could return to starting -- he's pitched out of the bullpen the past two seasons -- and they can find out if he can be as effective out of the rotation. If he is, he could serve as the team's "sixth starter". If not, the Nats have another power arm ready to help in the bullpen later in the season. 

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.


January 21, 2013

BP Unfiltered

Daily Draft Video: Edwin Diaz

Daily exclusive video series designed to familiarize you with the names you need to know leading up to the 2013 amateur draft.

Edwin Diaz (SS/INF), out of Ladislao Martinez Otero High School (Vega Alta, PR), is a projectable infielder with offensive upside and smooth enough actions to potentially stick up-the-middle.  Diaz shows well in the field with the glove, arm and lower-half, with ultimate size and quickness likely the determining factors as to which infield position he eventually calls home at the pro ranks. There is present pop in the barrel, produced by a leveraged swing with natural lift, though each can lead to empty cuts at present -- particularly against quality secondaries. Today’s video is from the 2013 Perfect Game World Showcase, held at Terry Park in Ft. Myers, Florida.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.


BP Unfiltered

MLBDepthCharts Mailbag

Jason Martinez answers questions on the Rays' lineup and Brewers' rotation in the latest 'MLBDepthCharts Mailbag'.

Jacob Larsen (@jakelarsen) asks this question about the 2013 Tampa Bay Rays, "Do the Rays sign a DH, allowing Brandon Guyer and Matt Joyce to fill an OF spot until Myers is ready?"

Thanks for the question, Jacob. Let's break this down into the pre-Myers era of 2013 and the post-Myers era and then decide if the Rays really need to acquire another bat ... 

There is a very strong likelihood that power-hitting prospect Wil Myers will start the season in Triple-A. Without getting too much into specifics on service time and how it relates to arbitration and free agency, let's just say that the Rays will get an extra year of team control if Myers stays in the minors until around late April, and he'll only get three years of arbitration, starting in 2016, instead of four, starting in 2015, if he's in the minors until at least late May. Big savings for a small market team. The safe assumption would be that the 22 year-old Myers joins the Rays in June. This is my current projection for the April and May lineup ...

1 CF Desmond Jennings
2 SS Yunel Escobar
3 2B Ben Zobrist
4 3B Evan Longoria
5 RF Matt Joyce
DH Ryan Roberts
1B James Loney
8 LF Sam Fuld / Brandon Guyer
9 C Jose Molina

Not that impressive, right? They could also have Zobrist play right field, move Joyce to left field, and go with some combination of Ryan RobertsReid Brignac, and Sean Rodriguez at second base. Still not impressed? You shouldn't be. Roberts (.656 OPS), Brignac (2-for-21 in MLB), and Rodriguez (.607 OPS) didn't exactly set the world on fire last season. Any way you slice it, there are two spots in the lineup that could use an upgrade. Well, they could actually use an upgrade at first base and catcher, too, but expect James Loney and Jose Molina to be in the lineup on Opening Day.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.


January 20, 2013

BP Unfiltered

Daily Draft Video: Weekend Flashback (Jungmann vs Roache vs Coulter)

Daily Draft Video Weekend Flashback takes a look at today's top prospects before they were pros.

Taylor Jungmann, Victor Roache, and Clint Coulter were three of the top prospects featured in this year's Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects here at Baseball Prospectus. Today’s Draft Video Weekend Flashback features these top prospects in pre-draft action.

More


BP Unfiltered

Nine Frank Robinsons

Fielding a lineup with nine Frank Robinsons.

More


January 19, 2013

Wezen-Ball

Earl Weaver & Stan Musial, Together

A quick look back at an early 1952 game.

March 8, 1952, in St. Petersburg, Florida. Spring training. The defending World Champion New York Yankees are facing 1951's third place St. Louis Cardinals in the first test of new player-manager Eddie Stanky. Stanky's main goal is to try and get a good feeling for his new squad—especially the young kids who have been toiling away in Omaha and the rest of the minor-league system—but there's little doubt that he wants to make a respectable showing in his new role.

With an eye towards the future, Stanky pencils in 21-year-old Earl Weaver at second base. Weaver has already played 540 games at various levels of the Cardinals' minor-league system over the last four years, but his time to make it to the big leagues may be running out. Not only has Red Schoendienst been holding down the keystone since 1946 (and will stay there for St. Louis until he's traded in 1956), but new manager Stanky is also on the depth chart up the middle. It's a cruel joke for the man called "the Eddie Stanky of the Cardinal organization". If Weaver can't make a big impression this spring, who knows what will happen to him.

More


BP Announcements

Michael Clair's Charity Baseball Blogathon for Doctors Without Borders

A worthy cause needs your help now.

At 11 AM on Saturday morning, Michael Clair started blogging about baseball at his excellent site, Old Time Family Baseball. He won't stop blogging until 11 AM on Sunday, by which time he will have published 48 posts, one for each half-hour interval. None of the posts is pre-written; he's doing it live. So far, he's memorialized Earl Weaver, searched for the next Vin Scully, broken down bad baseball movies to liveblog later, and diagrammed Jeff Karstens' amusing anatomy. He's doing this not because it's how he relaxes on weekends, but because he wants to make some money for a worthy organization, Doctors Without Borders. Sure, some might say it's time we took the Doctors down a notch—you wear a white coat and save some lives, and suddenly you start to believe the borders everyone else observes no longer apply to you—but Michael raised $2000 for them in his first annual charity blogathon last year, and now he's back and aiming for at least $3000. (Next year, one assumes, he'll be dreaming of 4000.)

But that, as they say in the infomercials, 's not all. Michael's 24 hours of blogging are just the start: after that, he's got a full day of guest posts by other baseball writers lined up (including yours truly, Larry Granillo, Jason Wojciechowski, and some others you might recognize from BP's past). He's also raffling away prizes for those who donate, including free subscriptions to Baseball Prospectus, gift certificates to MLB.com and Ebbets Field Flannels, a copy of Out of the Park Baseball, some good baseball books (including Best of Baseball Prospectus), some so-bad-they're-good baseball movies, and more.

More


BP Unfiltered

Daily Draft Video: Weekend Flashback (Andrew Pullin)

Daily Draft Video Weekend Flashback takes a look at today's top prospects before they were pros.

Andrew Pullin was listed as a "prospect on the rise" in this year's Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects here at Baseball Prospectus. Today’s Draft Video Weekend Flashback features this up-and-comer in pre-draft action.

Andrew Pullin (2B/OF) out of Centralia High School (Fords Prairie, WA); drafted fifth round (188th overall), 2012. Prior to signing with the Phillies, Pullin was committed to attend the University of Oregon. Video from the 2011 Area Code Games scout workout at Blair Field (Long Beach, Calif.).

Pullin at bat for Marucci Elite at the 2011 WWBA World Championship in Jupiter, Florida (hosted by Perfect Game USA).

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

<< Previous Entries Next Entries >>