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April 5, 2013

Tater Trot Tracker

Trot Times for April 4

The tater trots from April 4: Michael Morse and Chris Davis are ridiculously hot while a pair of Yankees speed on home.

The total number of home runs hit across the league went down on Thursday, but you wouldn't know it from the game in Toronto. The Blue Jays and Indians combined for seven home runs, with J.P. Arencibia launching two himself. You also wouldn't know it from Chris Davis or Michael Morse, who continue to place the ball over the fence as if it belonged to an annoying neighbor. All in all, not a bad way for this first week to continue.

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BP Daily Podcast

Effectively Wild Episode 175: Brian Roberts' Injury, Baserunners Passing Baserunners, and the Pros and Cons of Trade Speculation

Ben and Sam discuss the latest injury to Brian Roberts, Evan Longoria running by Ben Zobrist, and the speculation about a Profar-for-Taveras trade.



Ben and Sam discuss the latest injury to Brian Roberts, Evan Longoria running by Ben Zobrist, and the speculation about a Profar-for-Taveras trade.

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Minor League Update

Games of Thursday, April 4

After a 14-strikeout debut in Triple-A, Tony Cingrani could soon be ready for a rotation role with the Reds.

Prospect of the Day: Tony Cingrani, LHP, Reds (Triple-A Louisville): 6.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, BB, 14 K: The former Rice University closer uses a plus fastball and plus changeup as his primary strikeout pitches. He has good deception, and his pitchability will allow him to achieve success at the highest level. Cingrani will continue to develop at Triple-A Louisville until the Reds call on him to pitch meaningful innings at some point in 2013.

Other notable prospect performances from April 4:

  • Orlando Arcia, SS, Brewers (Low-A Wisconsin): 2-6, 2B, R, RBI, CS; Orlando, the younger brother of Oswaldo, has sneaky power with good plate discipline and instincts on the basepaths. He is making his stateside debut after an ankle injury cost him the entire 2012 season.
  • Oswaldo Arcia, RF, Twins (Triple-A Rochester): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI, BB, K; Oswaldo brings plus power with plus contact ability to all fields. Arcia can hit a fastball out of the park in any count with the ability to hang in against elite velocity.
  • Bryce Brentz, RF, Red Sox (Triple-A Pawtucket): 3-5, 2 2B, 2 R, RBI, K: Brentz offers better-than-plus raw power and can pull anything.
  • Byron Buxton, CF, Twins (Low-A Cedar Rapids): 2-5, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB: This 2012 first-rounder is an elite-level runner with bat speed and power potential that will continue to improve with experience.
  • Edward Butler, RHP, Rockies (Low-A Asheville): 5.1 IP, H, 0 ER, BB, 7 K; Plus fastball combined with plus slider will give inexperienced hitters a multitude of problems.
  • Carlos Correa, SS, Astros (Low-A Quad Cities): 2-5, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 K: The first-overall selection in 2012, Correa has plenty of polish to use his tools and rack up big numbers in Low-A.
  • Jarek Cunningham, 2B, Pirates (Double-A Altoona): 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, K; Cunningham has impressive raw tools, including above-average power and speed, but he struggles with plate discipline.
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C, Mets (Triple-A Las Vegas): 2-3, 2 2B, 4 R, RBI, BB; Acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade, d’Arnaud is an advanced hitter with a plus hit tool and above-average power. Combined with above-average defense, that gives him the potential to be a perennial All-Star.
  • Delino DeShields, 2B, Astros (High-A Lancaster): 2-5, 2B, 3B, 2 R, RBI; The son of a former big-leaguer, DeShields has plus-plus speed and the contact ability to become a force at the major-league level.
  • Daniel Fields, CF, Tigers (Double-A Erie): 2-5, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI: Above-average power and speed give Fields a chance to develop into a reliable everyday outfielder on a contender.
  • Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Phillies (Triple-A Lehigh Valley): 2-3, 2 2B, R, BB; A line-drive hitter with excellent contact ability, Hernanez has below-average power but pairs plus speed with a plus defensive profile.
  • Joel Hutter, 3B, Orioles (Low-A Delmarva): 2-4, 2 3B, 2 R, RBI; Hutter is a grinder who plays as hard as he can, squeezing the most out of his skills on a daily basis.
  • Rafael Montero, RHP, Mets (Double-A Binghamton) 5.2 IP, 2 H, ER, 0 BB, 8 K; Montero has a simple delivery with a fastball/slider/changeup mix. He is forced to lean heavily on his fastball because both secondary offerings are only average at this point.
  • Hunter Morris, 1B, Brewers (Triple-A Nashville): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 4 RBI; Limited to first base only, Morris often muscles balls out of the ballpark, which he may not be able to do against more advanced pitching. Still, most scouts believe that he will eventually have plus power.  
  • Aaron Northcraft, RHP, Braves (Double-A Birmingham): 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K; Northcraft features a sinker, and he also uses a curveball and changeup. He must smooth out his mechanics, but should eventually be able to pitch at the highest level.
  • Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers (Triple-A Round Rock): 2-3 R, BB, SB; Profar is considered the number-one prospect in the game because of his well-rounded profile. He offers everything a potential team could ask for: a plus defensive profile at shortstop with a plus bat, which should make him an All-Star for many years to come.
  • Jacob Realmuto, C, Marlins (Double-A Jacksonville): 2-3, 2B, HR, R, 2 RBI: Realmuto may only have average power, but he has a sound approach to hitting combined with plus arm strength behind the plate.
  • George Springer, CF, Astros (Double-A Corpus Christi): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI, 2 K; Showed his easy plus power by hitting a home run to center field against a stiff wind.
  • Nicholas Tepesch, RHP, Rangers (Triple-A Round Rock): 5.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K; Tepesch used his four-pitch mix (fastball/curveball/cutter/changeup) with excellent command to control the Triple-A lineup in his tune-up to become the Rangers’ fifth starter.
  • Tyler Tewell, C, Braves (Low-A Rome): 3-5, 2 2B, 2 R, RBI: A 2012 draftee, Tewell shows excellent contact skills with the ability to stay behind the plate defensively.
  • Mac Williamson, RF, Giants (High-A San Jose): 3-5, 2B, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI; Williamson has the potential for plus-plus power to all fields, but that comes with contact questions; his plus arm profiles best in right field.
  • Mike Zunino, C, Mariners (Triple-A Tacoma): 3-4, 2B, 3B, HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, BB, K; Zunino offers solid-average contact skills with plus power and the ability to be an acceptable defensive catcher at the major-league level.

 

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April 4, 2013

BP Unfiltered

Mike Trout Fast

Mike Trout Runs Fast.

Slugging percentage is, of course, a "power" stat. It's got the word slug right there in the middle of it, and also the word lug, and the word gin, all powerful things. But then Mike Trout comes around and slugs .564, and of course Trout has a ton of power but have you ever wondered just how much of Mike Trout's slugging percentage comes specifically from his speed? There's the doubles he turns to triples, of course. And the singles he turns into doubles. The infield hits he beats out. But there's also what defenders have to do to defend him; third baseman have to play closer than they want to, middle infielders have to bunch in a little, it's even possible (somebody should check!) that pitchers are more likely to work him up in the zone than a similar power hitter, knowing that inducing a groundball doesn't have quite the rate of return that it would have against an Adam Dunn-type .564 slugger. There's also the bigger gaps he gets because outfielders squeeze in just a little bit on him, knowing that otherwise he hits a routine single and turns it into a double. The full extent of it is impossible to measure. But if I had to guess, I'd guess that Mike Trout gains 35 extra bases a year based on his speed. That, if he ran like Josh Willingham runs, he'd have slugged .501 last year. What do you think, Shin-Soo Choo?  

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BP Unfiltered

Raising Aces: Da Pitching Code

Doug Thorburn flips through the pitching section of the scout-speak dictionary

Before he wrote for Baseball Prospectus, Doug Thorburn climbed through BP's minor league system with Baseball Daily Digest, where he started the Raising Aces column dedicated to the mound. A few of those articles for BDD have withstood the test of time, continuing to resurface in various corners of the internet. Due to recent interest, we have chosen to revive one of these archived pieces.

Raising Aces: Da Pitching Code” was originally published at BDD on June 8, 2011.
 

BP's Jason Parks wrapped up his excellent scouting series last week, and one of the final takeaways addressed the mystery of “scout speak.”

...observations are usually documented or expressed in “scout speak,” which is a language preferred by grown men who get a kick out of speaking in code in the same way kids get a kick out of protecting the sanctity of a fort.

Scout speak is a fascinating language. Definitions are loosely defined and are sensitive to the vagaries of subjective interpretation, and many terms are lumped into artificial categories of “good” or “bad.” Scout speak serves as a comprehension barrier for those who were not raised in an environment of 20-80 scales, bullpen sessions, and performance showcases that slightly resemble a dog n' pony show for ballplayers; but there is an increasing number of baseball outsiders that are clamoring to learn more about the culture of scouting, and the dissemination of information is spreading too quickly for the old guard to maintain their secrets for much longer.

My first real introduction to the language of baseball insiders was working with the Sacramento River Cats of the Pacific Coast League, where I was the assistant to the Assistant General Manager (Dwight Schrute, eat your heart out). I had absorbed a dictionary full of terms during my lifelong obsession with the sport, but the River Cats job expanded my baseball vocabulary, and I quickly learned the limitations of my own language.

A defining moment came after an early-season night game, in which Sacramento starting pitcher Ron Flores had struggled to find the strike zone. I was sitting in AGM Mike Gazda's office, when Gaz asked me what I thought was wrong with Flores that night. I knew zilch about pitching mechanics at the time, but I also didn't want to appear ignorant in front of my boss, so I reached for a scout-speak cliché to answer the question: “It looked like Flores was overthrowing tonight.”

I was summarily laughed out of the room.

I learned two things from that particular encounter: 1) I had a lot to learn about pitching, and 2) novices carry a heavy accent when impersonating scout-speak.

Fast forward to the present, and I have not only become fluent in scout speak, but have also learned enough about pitching to fill a book. That said, speaking to other talent evaluators can still be a challenge, as there are many dialects of the language; two scouts can agree that a player has a “violent” delivery, yet disagree on the characteristics that make it violent. Case in point, what follows are a dozen of the more common terms in the pitching section of the scout dictionary.

The Basics
“Arm Action” - n. One of the most popular terms in the pitching lexicon, “arm action” has perhaps the least consistent definition. Ask three scouts and you might receive three different interpretations, covering the entire path of the throwing arm from setup to release point and follow through, or any specific portion of that sequence. When a scout says that a pitcher has the same arm action on his fastball and his changeup, he is typically referring to arm speed from the start of shoulder rotation through release point, but positioning is also a factor, as a pitcher with extreme pronation on his change might telegraph the pitch early in the delivery.

“Control” - n. Typically refers to the ability for a pitcher to avoid walks, or to “control the strike zone.” Many will use the term interchangeably with command, while some have very specific definitions for each, and control more often describes the short-term ability to locate a pitch. A pitcher might have “command” of his changeup on a regular basis, but still have occasional days where he loses “control” of el cambio.

“Command” - n. Similar to control, but more often applied to a specific pitch type. A pitcher might have exceptional command of a fastball, but is unable to harness a breaking pitch. Pitch command can be specifically applied to hitting the catcher's target and “commanding” the different quadrants of the strike zone, and will more often describe a pitcher's long-term ability to repeat pitches.

The Good
“Clean” - adj. Describes a pitcher's motion that is pleasing to the eye, and is typically identified by consistent timing, fluid rhythm, and strong repetition of movement. In an age of hyper-awareness of the dangers inherent in throwing a baseball for a living, more and more evaluators want to see a motion that appears to be less taxing on the body, and requires minimal effort to execute. However, many scouts disagree on the factors that put a pitcher at risk, and there is no universal concept of “clean” timing when it comes to an individual delivery. See also: “Smooth, Effortless”

“Deceptive” - adj. This term is paired with several interpretations. A) A pitcher can “hide the ball” from the batter's view, by obscuring the throwing hand behind moving arms, legs, and torso; B) Pitchers that have deep release points are often said to have deception, as the fastball is “sneaky fast” due to the increase in perceived velocity; C) A talented pitcher with an unorthodox delivery is often tagged as deceptive, which arises more from a lack of any conventional explanation for his success. Example: see Weaver, Jered.

“Downhill Plane” - n. Conventional wisdom states that tall pitchers have an advantage on the mound, and stats from the late 1960's help to substantiate the theory that release point height is a significant advantage, which has created a scouting obsession with “downhill” or “downward plane.” The idea ignores the benefits of release point extension for tall pitchers, and focuses primarily on creating a steep trajectory to increase the probability of a groundball. It is generally accepted that increased downhill plane is an advantage, but some doubt is cast by the mechanical sacrifices that pitchers often make in the name of finding a taller release (more on this later), and the reality that pitch break has a much more significant impact on groundball rates than release point height.

The Bad
“Overthrowing” - v. There are many ways to interpret the overthrow syndrome, from a pitcher that appears to be over-exerting himself to one that is more literally over-rotating the shoulder axis at release point, which would cause the pitches to run low and wide to the glove-side. The fact is that some will use this term as a safety blanket to explain a poor performance, much as I did in my fateful evaluation of Ron Flores. The literal English translation is akin to “trying to throw too hard,” which is just as vague on the field as it is in 12-point font.

“Violent” - adj. A violent delivery is the opposite of one that is clean, smooth, or effortless. The “violence” stems from a combination of factors, including but not limited to extreme momentum, funky arm action, flailing limbs, sharp hip turns, immense torque, and extreme rotational velocities in particular. Many of the pitchers that earn this tag appear to be unstable, with little ability to harness the delivery, but this is not always the case. Some scouts have taken to putting the “violent” label on any pitcher whose delivery appears to require considerable effort, which puts it in the same category as “overthrowing.”

“Throwing Across The Body” - v. A scout-speak favorite that is widely misdiagnosed as a symptom of poor “arm action,” the confusion surrounding this term is greater than any other on this list. The arm will literally cross in front of the body just after release point on every pitch, but this is not a concern for the scout. Rather, “throwing across the body” often refers to a player that does not appear to complete the rotational phases of the delivery, resulting in an early release point. The functional description is a pitcher that does not get his shoulders square to the target in time for release point; in reality, though, most pitchers who earn the “across the body” label are those that have a closed stride, with a front foot that lands to the arm-side of the centerline. Many of these pitchers will indeed struggle to get their shoulders squared up with the target, while others will have no problem completing rotation despite having a closed stride, so the term has become a blanket statement that is often misapplied.

The Debated
“Rushing” - v. A pitcher that generates heavy momentum is often said to be “rushing” through the delivery, which falls under the category of being “violent” to some scouts. The negative connotation is tempered, however, by elite rushers such as Tim Lincecum, Roy Oswalt, Sandy Koufax, and Bob Gibson. I have applied the rush label to pitchers, though my definition has little to do with momentum; pitchers will often rush the delivery when pitching from the stretch with runners on base, resulting in timing issues that create havoc on release point consistency. Thus enters the paradox, where many of the same pitching coaches that say “don't rush” from the windup will then tell their pitchers to use a slide step from the stretch.

“Get on top” - v. The emphasis on “downward plane” has encouraged many scouts to look for pitchers that “get on top of the ball” with a high arm slot, and though downward plane is generally considered a positive, there is a very real trade-off that exists between height and distance at release point. In order to achieve a taller release point, a pitcher will sacrifice posture by tilting his head and spine to the glove side, and every one inch of inappropriate head movement will cost the hurler two inches of release point distance. This creates a functional give-and-take between downhill plane and perceived velocity, and while many coaches and scouts advocate “get on top” with a religious fervor, I am personally against any adjustment that has a negative impact on a pitcher's posture, which I consider to be one of the most critical variables in the pitching mechanics equation.

“Changing arm angles” - v. This one falls under the “deception” label, though it is often a misnomer, as a changing arm slot is not something that a pitcher typically strives to accomplish; rather, it is usually the result of poor balance and/or inconsistent posture at release point. Many pitchers will attempt to get “on top of the ball” when throwing breaking pitches, but not when throwing a fastball, and they will effectively tip their pitches based on the variance in arm slot. A pitcher with exceptionally poor timing might produce “changing arm angles,” despite his intentions to repeat every aspect of the delivery. It's similar to pitchers that “change speeds,” in that some might have the ability to add or subtract velocity at will, while others just plain struggle to find any sort of consistency.

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Tater Trot Tracker

Trot Times for April 3

The tater trots for April 3: Manny goes deep across the world, Gio can't keep from smiling, Upton busts out the speed.

Well that didn't take long. On the first day of the season in which all 30 teams played, there are 36 home runs hit around the league. There's nothing extreme about that number, but it is rather early in the season to see so many hit in a single day. At least it was full of interesting homers.

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Wezen-Ball

Yu Darvish Reminds Us: Technology is Great

The technology to consume and enjoy baseball games today makes this one of the best times ever to be a baseball fan.

The recent spate of no-hitters and perfect games has really helped to show us how far the technology for enjoying baseball has come in the last two decades. Comparing how we learn about and consume these historic games today with even ten years ago is a lesson in how rapidly technology can evolve in the Internet Age. For fans of baseball, this is a great thing.

In 1990-91, there were fourteen no-hitters thrown around the major leagues, including two from Nolan Ryan and a perfect game from Dennis Martinez. At that time, in our cable-less house, I would have been lucky to hear about the no-hitter by the next day, when my older brothers or I happened to see it in the newspaper. If it was a name I recognized, like Ryan, and it happened to fall on the right day of the week, I may even have been lucky enough to hear about it that night. If the event happened to fall through those cracks, however—a pretty easy feat to accomplish—I might not have heard about it at all until I ran across a Topps or Upper Deck card commemorating the feat the next summer. How else would a kid from central California have been expected to hear about the Kent Mercker-Mark Wohlers-Alejandro Pena combined no-hitter?

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BP Unfiltered

Maholm Throws Utley a Curve (Literally)

Paul Maholm assumes the mantle of the sub-60-mph strike.

Last season, there were 21 called strikes thrown slower than 60 miles per hour. Nineteen of them were eephus pitches by Vicente Padilla, and the other two were slow curves by Randy Wolf. Padilla is now pitching for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, and Wolf will spend the whole season recovering from October Tommy John surgery. So we wondered—those of us who wonder about these things—who would take up the mantle of the under-60-mph strike thrower in 2013.

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