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June 19, 2013

BP Unfiltered

Blind BABIP Results: You Suck

All of you, and me. We all suck.

When we did the Blind BABIP test for Jake Peavy last year, we were collectively sliiiiightly better than random guesses. So slight that it was hard to pat ourselves on the back, but better all the same. When we did the Blind BABIP test for Jose Iglesias, we were quite a bit worse than random guesses. On average, each of you got 4.45 answers correct out of 10. It's one thing to say baseball is hard to crack. It's another to say that baseball is actively misleading us, and yet that's the case. Given more information, we do a worse job of figuring out what is going on than if we had no information.

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BP Unfiltered

Zack Wheeler and First-Start Jitters

Do rookie starters struggle to find the strike zone in their first career starts?

Zack Wheeler’s big-league debut on Tuesday night went well. He held the Braves scoreless over six innings, allowing four hits, striking out seven batters, and showing impressive stuff. The only cause for complaint was that he walked five.

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BP Daily Podcast

Effectively Wild Episode 227: Julio Urias and Young Pitchers/Prospects Switching Positions/Jose Iglesias and High BABIPs/Goodbye Base Coaches

Ben and Sam answer listener emails about young pitchers, prospects switching positions, Jose Iglesias' high BABIP, and base coaches.


Ben and Sam answer listener emails about young pitchers, prospects switching positions, Jose Iglesias' high BABIP, and base coaches.

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June 18, 2013

BP Daily Podcast

Effectively Wild Episode 226: Predictions About Zack Wheeler/The Story of Signing Puig

Ben and Sam discuss their expectations for Zack Wheeler and other young pitchers, then talk about the true story behind the Dodgers signing Yasiel Puig.


Ben and Sam discuss their expectations for Zack Wheeler and other young pitchers, then talk about the true story behind the Dodgers signing Yasiel Puig.

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June 17, 2013

BP Daily Podcast

Effectively Wild Episode 225: Missing Out on Mariano Rivera/Scouting Scouts

Ben and Sam discuss what Mariano Rivera's retirement might cost us, then talk about whether it's possible to evaluate scouts statistically.


Ben and Sam discuss what Mariano Rivera's retirement might cost us, then talk about whether it's possible to evaluate scouts statistically.

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June 15, 2013

Fantasy Beat

Weekly #streameroftheday Update

Bret takes a look through this past week's streamer picks and looks at where he went right (and wrong).

For those of you unfamiliar with the #streameroftheday process, I recommend one starting pitcher per day who is owned in fewer than 10% of leagues (lower than your typical standards) and post it on Twitter at @dynastyguru. And this Friday post is where I stand in front of the firing squad, fully accountable for these recommendations. I ran a longer introduction in my first post of the season, explaining why my ownership limit is much lower than most others out there, but essentially it's to be helpful in deeper mixed leagues. If you want to read the whole thing, the link is here. With the pleasantries out of the way, let's jump into the action.

Here were the details for the last seven days:

Date Pitcher Opp IP ER H BB K Dec
6/7/13 Jordan Lyles KC 7 2 6 1 3 ND
6/8/13 Joe Saunders NYY 6 1/3 3 7 2 4 Loss
6/9/13 David Phelps SEA 6 1 3 3 6 ND
6/10/13 Ricky Nolasco MLW 5 1/3 4 10 2 5 Loss
6/11/13 Andrew Cashner ATL 8 2 6 1 5 Win
6/12/13 Jordan Lyles SEA 7 0 3 2 10 ND
6/13/13 David Robertson OAK 1 0 2 0 3 ND

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June 14, 2013

BP Unfiltered

Gonzalez Germen and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Inning

The history of allowing four home runs in an inning.

Last night in Las Vegas, Mets top prospect Zack Wheeler made his final Triple-A tune-up before his big-league debut. It was a good one. Pitching against the Tacoma Rainiers, Wheeler went 5 2/3 innings, allowing one hit—a home run by Carlos Peguero—two walks, and striking out seven. The Rainiers’ starter, Erasmo Ramirez, was even better, going eight scoreless with seven strikeouts and no walks. And this was in Cashman Field, one of the best offensive environments in Minor League Baseball, where 2.22 home runs were hit per game from 2010-12—more than in any other PCL park except Albuquerque. As a team, the 51s have slugged over 50 points higher at home this season.

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BP Unfiltered

Scouting the Draft: 2013 PG National Notes

Quick notes on five loud performances from Day 1 of the 2013 Perfect Game National Showcase.

With the 2013 MLB Draft a week in our rearview, the 2014 draft class is already under industry surveillance, as the 2013 summer circuit kicks off this weekend with the Perfect Game National Showcase. Joe Hamrahi and I are taking in the event along with our partners at Perfect Game, and will be bringing you more detailed write-ups early next week. For now, here are five loud performances from Day 1 you should know about.

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