For those of you who haven’t noticed, we are debuting several new statistical reports this week that will be updated daily throughout the season. All of these reports are currently available as a free preview at our Statistics page. Some of these reports, however, will be offered as part of Baseball Prospectus Premium in the coming weeks and months.
Adam Riggs gets a well-deserved shot with the Angels. The Braves aim to avoid the mistake made by the ’93 Phillies. Neal Cotts could end up being the prize in the Koch-Foulke deal for the White Sox. The Royals and A’s designate Febles and Piatt for assignment, drawing mixed reviews. These and other transactions, Chris Kahrl-style, in this edition of Transaction Analysis.
Francisco Rodriguez has been lights out since June; the Cubs’ rotation has been one of the best in all of baseball; and Tigers have improved a bit since the All-Star break. All this and much more news from Anaheim, Chicago, and Detroit in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
In the July 25 edition of Transaction Analysis, Chris Kahrl critiqued the trade of reliever Mike Williams from the Pirates to the Phillies: There are other cranky topics, particularly the re-failure to acquire talent for Mike Williams in this year’s Williams deal. Certainly, if it reflected any new appreciation for the interchangeability of closers beyond the top few personalities in the field, that would be nifty, but instead, it seems that people (appropriately) don’t take Williams particularly seriously as a commodity, so the Pirates got things bad both ways, in terms of plugging in a replacement-level talent in the job, enriching him, and then not enriching themselves when the time came to deal him. Kahrl’s analysis could be applied to the entire trading history of the Pirates franchise, a three-handed process in which the hometown GM extends a good player with one hand, accepts his return with the another, and pinches his nose shut with the third. The top 10 list of best trades in the history of the franchise remains virgin territory, while the worst-10 list provides for an overstuffed buffet of empty calorie choices. This article is a compendium of self-inflicted wounds suffered since the acquisition of the franchise by Kevin McClatchy. After the institution of the amateur draft in 1965 democratized (at least on paper) talent acquisition, a broken franchise, particularly an impoverished broken franchise, could right itself through a combination of smart trading, free-agent signings, and the rewards offered to losing teams by the draft. Over a long span lasting at least since the waning days of Barry Bonds as a Buc, the Pirates have consistently failed at all three.
Tom Gamboa was minding his own business as the first base coach of the Royals when he was jumped by a father-son team who attempted to beat him up, before the bonding pair themselves got a lesson in stomping by players. Ligue asserts Gamboa gave him the finger in response to some heckling. I don’t think that qualifies as ‘fighting words,’ or is really even relevant.
William Ligue Jr. did not get sent to jail last week. The judge instead sentenced him to 30 months of probation.
Judge Holt: “The violence that baseball players are exposed to comes from within. What fan has not seen a pitcher intentionally hurl a baseball at a player’s head at 90 miles per hour? Who has not seen a batter leave home plate headed for the pitcher’s mound bat in hand bent on mischief and mayhem?”
I understand what he means. And yet, the issue of on-field conflict is something baseball has struggled to control. Intent is difficult to determine when pitchers throw inside, and baseball’s tried to strike a balance between letting the game play itself out and deterring on-field confrontations. You see this balance every time an ump decides to warn both benches, attempting to stave off further beanings at the cost of dramatically changing where pitches and even game strategy can go.
This is a bad argument, though.
Mark Armour and Dan Levitt turned a series of debates between friends into Paths To Glory, the stories of the building of several interesting baseball teams, published this spring by Brasseys, Inc. Paths looks at some of the greatest dynasties in baseball history, including the A’s of the early 1970s, as well as some of the most dramatic missed opportunities, including the Black Sox of the 1910s and early 20s. Armour and Levitt recently chatted with Baseball Prospectus about some of those teams, the men who built them, and the team-building strategies they used to make it happen.
Baseball Prospectus: What first inspired you to write this book?
Dan Levitt: Mark and I had become friends through SABR. Pretty soon we came to realize we were interested in the same thing: What made baseball teams win, and what didn’t? We started corresponding by telephone and e-mail, and started doing research as well. We came to realize that not there weren’t a whole lot of printed materials on the subject. There were a lot of books on great teams out there. But those books would rank them, or give day-to-day on seasons, stars, and the not-so-great players. But you’d have a really tough time finding a book on say, the 1915 Phillies, and how they won the pennant. We realized there was a void of this type of book. So we set out to put a book together that’d be interesting, about some great teams and some not-so-great ones. It’s really a different perspective: not the day-by-day heroics, but rather what were the decisions that went into assembling these teams.
You’ll recall that for the last two weeks we’ve looked at the divergent paths, in terms of power, of two distinct groups of minor-league hitters. The first, deftly named Group A, comprised the top 25 active leaders in slugging percentage who had at least 3,000 major league ABs as of the end of the 2002 season. Group B consisted of hitters who, despite putting up strong minor league power numbers, failed to bust out the lumber at the highest level. To populate Group B, I included anyone with a career minor league SLG of at least 0.490, at least a 10% decline in their SLG in the majors and at least 1,750 ABs in the majors.
I chose those in Group B specifically for their high minor league SLGs, so it’s neither surprising nor interesting that they would outslug those in Group A. What might inspire a spit-take is the fact that they also bested Group A in every peripheral power indicator. So what gives?
Maybe it’s command of the strike zone that forecasts power better than actual power indicators. Sounds counterintuitive, but, hell, I’m running out of ideas. So to test this theory, we’ll look at the following measures:
I guess that groin is healthy. Mike Piazza’s return from an extended stay on the DL was just about as successful as possible. Two singles, a home run, and five RBI before being lifted for a pinch-runner in the seventh inning equals a very impressive first day back on the job. This is a pattern we’re likely to see for Piazza: catch seven innings, and if there’s a significant lead or deficit, he’ll be pulled. Many will anticipate that in some instances, he’ll be moved to first for the last couple innings. I’m not sure how much we’ll see that this season. The Mets will only have Cliff Floyd for a few more weeks. While I don’t have the specific date yet, Floyd’s surgery is expected to come before September 1 and perhaps as early as late next week. He’s always been something of a protégé to Mark McGwire, but something Jason Giambi doesn’t want to emulate is Big Mac’s penchant for the DL. Giambi has always been a durable player, appearing in 140 or more games in every year he’s played since 1995. Giambi is now dealing with mild patellar tendinitis, a condition that deteriorated rapidly for McGwire and ended his career. There’s some short-term concern here–Joe Torre can spot in Nick Johnson or Todd Zeile if necessary, but either one would be a downgrade, especially Zeile–but for the Yankees, this condition is one that could come back and haunt its decision to give Giambi such a long-term deal. Let me be clear: Giambi’s tendinitis is not much more than an annoyance at this stage, and with proper care, he can possibly avoid McGwire’s fate. But it’s a fact worth knowing.
The Orioles scored a windfall in their trade of Sidney Ponson. The Rockies’ pitching has shockingly been worse on the road than at home. The Mets need to get a first baseman’s mitt for Mike Piazza. These and other news and notes out of Baltimore, Colorado, and New York in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
If Pete Rose is, in fact, reinstated after the season, as previously reported, he becomes eligible to be placed on the Hall of Fame ballot. For many fans, his on-the-field qualifications are a foregone conclusion. As baseball’s all-time hits leader, 17-time All Star, the 1973 MVP, and key member of the Big Red Machine, it’s hard to deny that Rose has some impressive credentials. And indeed, baseball fans voted him onto the All-Century Team as one of the finest players of the 20th century. However, there’s been a reassessment of Rose’s value as a player over the past 15 years, as sabermetrics has advanced our understanding of how offenses work, and how teams win. As the importance of On-Base Percentage has been recognized, and measures such as OPS (On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging average) have become popular, Rose has become a poster boy for the overrated star–one whose game consisted of hitting a lot of singles, and posting a high but empty batting average. Some have gone as far as to say that Rose doesn’t deserve to be in the Hall of Fame on the merits of his playing career, even excluding any gambling controversy. But is this a revisionist history by the statheads, or an honest, updated assessment of a former star?
For the third season in a row, Barry Bonds is the best player in the National League. His overall performance is stupendous–.341/.521/.755–so good that even a peak performance by Albert Pujols–.370/.436/.686–doesn’t quite measure up. Bonds’ significant performance edge makes up for Pujols’ extra playing time, so he leads in advanced metrics like Runs Above Replacement Position (RARP) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP).
Whether Bonds will be able to win his sixth Most Valuable Player award is yet to be seen. He is the biggest reason for the Giants’ runaway in the NL West, but he’ll be fighting some biases. In recent years, BBWAA awards have become about the best story, and Pujols is seen in many quarters to be the better story. If the Cardinals earn a playoff spot, Pujols will be perceived as the reason, despite the fact that three of his teammates (Edgar Renteria, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen) are also among the 10 best players in the league.
Ramiro Mendoza mercifully heads to the DL for the Red Sox. Sandy Alomar Jr. is a waste of space for the White Sox. The Indians and Blue Jays sort through their multiple catching options. The Twins continue to jerk around their young talent. The Giants’ big lead may get a lot smaller without their starting middle infield. These and other tidbits and Kahrlisms in this edition of Transaction Analysis.
Was J.D. Drew held out of games in anticipation of a trade? That remains unclear, but according to the Cardinals, Drew has an oblique strain that he suffered during batting practice on Saturday. Drew was not in the lineup for a fifth consecutive day when the Pirates took on the Cardinals, Tuesday. It is unclear when Drew may return to the lineup.
Reports differ on the return date for Mike Piazza, but suffice it to say it will happen soon. Adding to the intrigue are published reports that Piazza intends to ask out, in order to continue catching, and to spare himself from what he sees as a long rebuilding process. Piazza had expressed interest in extending his rehab assignment in order to make sure he’s not rusty upon his return, but the call-up could come as early as Wednesday. In Norfolk, Piazza has passed every test.
Rick Reed has had his share of injuries this season, as have most of his mates in the Twins rotation. And yet, the AL Central crown is still within reach, so each injury is of magnified importance. Joe Mays took the hill in place of Reed in Tuesday’s game and was as successful as he had been earlier in the season. The Twins are surely looking on the horizon for help from Eric Milton.
The Red Sox ended Tuesday night four games behind the Yankees in the AL East. What are the odds that they can make up that deficit to take the division? And, failing that, what are their chances to edge out the A’s for the wild card?
Seriously. Grab a pencil and a piece of paper, come up with your best guesstimate, and write it down. Harder than you thought, huh? Keep reading, and we’ll have an answer for you in a bit.
Whether they realize it or not, major league teams are making calculations like this all the time. Implicitly or explicitly, they can determine the direction that a team chooses to take: whether to move prospects for veterans at the trade deadline, whether to shut a young pitcher down for the season, or try (injury risk be damned) to get as much work out of him as they can. Wins are the currency that baseball transacts in, but for many purposes, they’re only as good as the pennants and postseason appearances that they can be redeemed for. Much as some pundits like to talk about Mystique, Aura, and Veteran Leadership, the postseason is a lottery of sorts. Winning 11 playoff games is often a lot easier than winning 90 or 95 in the regular season, and many teams consider their season a success if their postseason ticket is punched, and they get to take their chance in the playoffs.
Pete Rose and Major League Baseball have reached an agreement that would allow him to return to baseball in 2004, and includes no admission of wrongdoing by Rose, Baseball Prospectus has learned. According to several sources, Rose signed the agreement after a series of pre-season meetings between Rose, Hall of Fame member Mike Schmidt, and at different times, high-level representatives of Major League Baseball, including Bob DuPuy, Major League Baseball’s Chief Operating Officer, and Allan H. “Bud” Selig, Commissioner of Major League Baseball.
Bill Mueller caps off one of the most improbable offensive nights in history; the Reds are taking steps toward changing the direction of their club; Mark Loretta and Rod Beck are playing their ways into San Diego’s future. All this and much more news from Boston, Cincinnati, and San Diego in your Tuesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.