It only seems like the Reds spend more time in Beacon Orthopaedic Center than they do in Great American Ballpark. Austin Kearns will go under Tim Kremchek’s knife on Thursday in order to diagnose and repair the lingering injury to the young outfielder’s shoulder. This surgery will come over a month after Kearns last played, due to an unsuccessful attempt to rehabilitate the injury without surgical intervention. The results of the surgery will determine the timetable on the young star’s return, but it will be a long winter of discontent for the Reds and their fans.
Every time you think you’ve heard everything, there’s something else. Carlos Beltran missed time after hyperextending his elbow–and more time because he forgot to take his anti-inflammatories. I’d recommend one of the cool little pill reminders that I got my grandmother a couple years back from Sharper Image, but she didn’t use it. Beltran got a good lecture and will probably not forget to take his pills. Expect him back in the lineup by Friday at the latest.
The Angels are fresh out of miracles, so Troy Glaus is heading to see Lewis Yocum for an opinion on his problematic shoulder. Conservative treatment and rest hasn’t helped and continued soreness has ended a rehab assignment for the time being. Surgery is a possibility and there’s a definite chance that Glaus is done for the season.
There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect.
I probably use that phrase a couple of times a week. It comes up a lot around trade-deadline time, as teams swap known quantities for unknowns in Double-A or lower and make a big deal about how those guys will be throwing 200 innings and saving 30 games in a few years’ time. It doesn’t happen that way.
What does it mean, though? Clearly, hundreds of young men pitch for baseball teams below the level of the major leagues, and many of them have the chance to become major-league pitchers. They’re prospective ones, so literally, the phrase is untrue. Pithy, but untrue.
I’ve already ruined any number of Padres seasons by writing columns on them right as they were peaking, so I waited on the Fish. I can’t wait anymore. Even after yesterday’s 5-4 loss to the Brewers, the Marlins are at 64-53, tied with the Phillies for the NL Wild-Card lead. It’s a great story for a team that has already provided some of the more interesting individual angles in the 2003 season. Dontrelle Willis made the All-Star team and will probably be the NL Rookie of the Year, even though he won’t deserve it. Mike Lowell, cancer survivor, is having his best season. The Fish are now managed by Jack McKeon, who is 72 years old and has never been to the postseason as a manager.
In a recent article, Derek Zumsteg recounted how bothersome it is to hear constant complaining about the Yankees dominating the game, especially because, well, they aren’t dominating the game. As Derek points out, the recent collective bargaining agreement requires that the Yankees pay their competitors for the privilege of employing Aaron Boone or, for that matter, Jose Contreras. Although the CBA does not mention the Yankees by name, much of the revenue sharing provisions will likely not affect anyone but them, and no one was really fooled by what the goal was. The recent CBA is not the first attempt to stack the deck against the Bronx Bombers.
Derek Jeter doesn’t think you can measure defensive performance. Brian Buchanan isn’t too good at laying one down. Umpire Tim Welke admits he was wrong; the Rockies don’t care. Marcus Giles wants to fight the scorekeeper. And Warren Spahn thinks the DL is for wimps. All this and many more quips for yout Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
The Marlins pitching staff has carried the team into the thick of the Wild Card race. Soriano and Jeter are heading in opposite directions for the Yankees. The Pirates’ kids are all right. These and other news and notes out of Florida, New York, and Pittsburgh in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
Once again, I watched the ESPN Sunday Night game in HD. Unfortunately, the great picture doesn’t make Joe Morgan any sharper. I had no rooting interest in the game, but hoped that I’d see something interesting. If a game-winning bomb by Albert Pujols off John Smoltz doesn’t count, maybe the unassisted triple play by Rafael Furcal does. I’d never seen one of those and if I’d blinked, I’d have missed it. The downside of HD is that TiVo doesn’t work, so there’s no pause, no rewind, no saving what I saw for posterity. I’ll file that game in my mind, with the others, and I’ll remind myself next time I say “Why am I watching this game? Sex and the City is on…” that in baseball, anything can happen, anytime.
After not getting dealt, the teams that might have traded for him have to be exhaling. Cory Lidle is dealing with both a groin problem and a “dead arm.” He’ll likely miss a start and Lidle himself has questioned what he has left for the rest of the season. The Jays have options, but won’t bring up any of their talented trio of minor league starters until at least September, if then.
The rehabbing Yanks are making progress. Jose Contreras worked a simulated game after a planned rehab start was rained out. He’ll head to the mound for that rehab start in Tampa next Monday. For Jon Lieber, he’s throwing batting practice and building up arm strength. Both could be in the Bronx by September, but while I’ll guarantee Contreras will be there, there isn’t as much reason to rush Lieber.
Bartolo Colon paused in yesterday’s game and was looked at by the training staff and pitching coach. Just a spasm, though Scott McCauley’s diagnosis of “pulled fat” drew laughter. The Sox also got the MRI results on Miguel Olivo’s shoulder and–like on the North Side with Prior–it was just a bad bruise. He’s likely out through the weekend.
We’ve collectively fallen prey to a common mistake. As we’ve been fortunate enough to reach a large number of new people, we’ve not done a particularly great job of talking about why we do what we do. Or, put another way, how come we don’t like to talk about RBI when evaluating hitters? I forget about this because of the kind of cloistered atmosphere we tend to run in, but a lot of stuff that we take as stone cold gospel is completely foreign and brand new for the vast majority of baseball fans.
So, as a service to the people who may be exploring serious baseball analysis for the first time, or who may be new to Baseball Prospectus, here’s a brief rundown of some basics of performance assessment. It’s spotty, but it’s a start. For you longtime readers, please consider this a cheat sheet you can use when discussing baseball in bars, or with Bob Feller.
Wednesday, the Yankees and Mariners swapped right-handed relievers, Armando Benitez for Jeff Nelson. At first glance, the trade seems like an exchange of headaches, given that Benitez had been erratic for the Yankees and Nelson had recently complained–not without reason–about the Mariners front office and its inability to make a deal at the trade deadline.
At first glance, the Mariners look like the big winners.
The Diamondbacks will surely plummet to last place with Mark Grace’s veteran leadership on the DL. Jack Cust gets his shot with the Orioles. Jeff Nelson’s return signals a Yankees A-Team reunion. Ray Durham opens the door for some unattractive options for the Giants. These and other tidbits in this edition of Transaction Analysis.
Grady Sizemore has usurped Victor Martinez as Impressive Indian of the Future; Hideo Nomo likes his time away from home; and Jeff Nelson gets dealt just days after criticizing the M’s front office. All this and much more news from Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Seattle in your Friday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
I woke up yesterday morning to hear NPR’s Frank Deford complain about how ineffective Bud Selig was in controlling the Yankees this year, that every fan of other teams had learned that the trading deadline was the effective end of the season. He went on to complain for a while about this year’s moves and I got up to go shave, depressed about the continued domination of New York and my home town team’s fortunes. I was then shocked–shocked!–to find out that not only did the Yankees not win last year’s World Series, they didn’t even win the year before. Why, if this keeps up, it’ll be hard to come up with, “What kind of a world is it where a man can’t whine about Yankee dominance as a back-up topic for their column, or radio bit, or appearance on whatever show Jim Rome’s hosting that week?” Deford was right–the Yankees did acquire an All-Star third baseman. But Robin Ventura’s an All Star third baseman, too, and no one’s talking about that. Aaron Boone’s really no plum, either–at press time, he was hitting .245/.304/.401 away from (as Dave Cameron called it) the Great American Bandbox. If these are the acquisitions the Yankees are going to make to take on salary, so be it.
Thanks for letting me take a day off; I needed it. I recharged my batteries by heading out to the ballpark with my dad, who’s in town for the week. It was a pretty bad game (17-1 loss for the home team), but a good time. As we head down the stretch with about 50 games left for teams, I’ll begin focusing more on the injuries that are affecting the divisional races. I won’t ignore the rest of baseball, but my focus will change slightly. Especially when rosters expand, it’s harder to track down information–the DL is used less frequently and teams begin to more actively hide injuries. It takes more time digging, calling, and analyzing, so the volume has to come down to make sure that I get you the information you need.
With slacker Barry Bonds having an off year, we don’t have the daily suspense of watching one player chase a variety of single-season records all at once. We do, however, have a fair chance that one of the game’s marks will be broken: Bobby Thigpen’s saves record of 57, set with the White Sox in 1990.
Through 113 games, the Braves’ John Smoltz has 42 saves, leaving him 15 short of tying the mark and 16 from setting a new one. In last year’s 55-save campaign, Smoltz had 59 opportunities, and 39 saves through 113 team games. He has had 45 save opportunities so far in 2003, on pace for 64.5 on the season. If that were to hold, Smoltz would have to save 16 of his last 19 opportunities to set the record, which seems well within his grasp.
Two summers ago, I wrote about the save record and what it would take for it to be broken. The primary barrier isn’t ability or performance, but opportunity…
The Diamondbacks hope Raul Mondesi can help their slumping offense. Angel Berroa deserves the Rookie of the Year award. Jose Mesa v. Pat Burrell, Phillies duel to the death. These and other news and notes out of Arizona, Kansas City, and Philadelphia in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.