As one might expect, the success of Michael Lewis’s great new book, Moneyball, has led to a number criticisms of Oakland Athletics’ GM Billy Beane, his staff, and their entire organizational philosophy. These criticisms should not have come as a surprise: Lewis presents Beane as a brilliant visionary operating in an antiquated system peopled, for the most part, with morons. There may be a great deal of truth to this, but the idea that some of Beane’s competitors would be defensive is understandable.
The most interesting criticism of the Athletics’ success is that as impressive as their regular season results have been, their style of play cannot succeed in the playoffs against quality competition. Sure, the Athletics win 100 games every year with one of the lowest payrolls in the game, but if they can’t win in the post-season, what good is it? This turns out to be a convenient critique since the A’s have lost in the first round of the playoffs for the past three seasons.
This criticism is not new, of course. Joe Morgan has been saying similar things for the last year or so: The A’s offense, which has relied mainly on reaching base and hitting home runs, is not effective in the post-season facing quality pitching. A team needs to be able to “manufacture runs”–steal bases, bunt, hit behind the runner, etc. The A’s do not, or cannot, do these things, so they are doomed to fall short in the playoffs. Or so the argument goes.
Continuing his series on the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, Doug Pappas looks at the ins and outs of MLB scheduling.
Don’t tell anyone, but I really enjoy watching Randall Simon hit. The loose, goofy motion in his stance as the ball approaches the plate; the flyswatter swing; the big-stepping follow through, his blubber, after half a second in gelatin-like suspension, mimicking the motion of his bat. It’s a lot of fun to watch, especially when Simon manages to make contact, which happens more often than you’d ever expect.
I’ve had the occasion, however, to watch Simon against Kerry Wood a couple of times this year, and from Randall’s point of view, the results have been disastrous: zero-for-six with four strikeouts. Not just any kind of strikeouts, mind you, but ugly, pirouetting, breeze-generating, no-chance-in-hell strikeouts, the sort that make you think that Simon could face Wood 500 times and go oh-fer.
I didn’t mind this, really; Wood is one of my favorite pitchers. But this particular matchup was interesting to watch because Simon and Wood are such an odd couple: Simon swings at everything, and never draws any walks, but by virtue of his superior hand-eye coordination, manages to keep his strikeout rate very low. Wood, on the other hand, is one of the toughest pitchers in the league to make contact against–though sometimes that’s because he isn’t throwing the ball anywhere near the strike zone. In any event, Simon’s performance against Wood looked so bad than I began to wonder whether the batter isn’t at some sort of systematic disadvantage in pairings of these types of players.
To study the question, I’ll leverage from a technique that Gary Huckabay and I introduced last month in a 6-4-3 column, comparing the actual performance observed when certain types of batter-pitcher pairings occur against the results predicted by Bill James’ log5 formula. Instead of dividing players up based on groundball and flyball rates, this time we’ll look at a quick-and-dirty index of plate discipline.
Some have noted that Mike Mussina appears to be running into trouble in the fifth or sixth innings and have asked if the Velocity Project is showing anything. The answer is no. It appears more that as he begins to tire, he throws more strikes and becomes more hittable. More hittable is bad, no matter what theory you believe in. Is it an indicator of an injury? No, I don’t think so. I’m less sure that it’s not simple aging. Ask me the same question about Al Leiter and you’ll get a similar answer.
After noticing a lack of muscle tone and getting Ellis Burks to admit to both pain and numbness in his hand, a series of tests were run to try and find a cause. It turns out that his ulnar nerve was impinged and caused all the problems. It will likely need to be surgically released and could cost Burks a good portion of the remaining season. With his career near its last legs, this trip to the DL could be the one that leads off into the sunset. The Indians brought up another piece of the future, Coco Crisp, to replace Burks. Some combination of Crisp, Jody Gerut, and Milton Bradley would be one heck of a young outfield.
If you thought Jermaine Dye still didn’t look right, you’re right. His knee is still acting up and needed draining tonight between BP and the game. It’s the legs that drain power when they’re injured, so don’t expect Dye to look like the masher he has been until he fully recovers the strength in his legs. Even with that bad wheel, Dye was able to make some nice defensive plays behind Tim Hudson.
Greg Maddux is acting like a flake; the Twins are absolutely hack-tastic; and the Devil Rays’ problems aren’t just at the major-league level. All this and much more on the Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, and Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
Does Edgar Martinez belong in the Hall of Fame?
Edgar, in conventional terms, is a weird case. His career is outstanding, but limited by organizational incompetence at the early end, and his own desire to hang out with his family on the late end. He’s fragile, earlier injured badly too often in the field, dogged as he aged with hamstring injuries that slowed him. Because of this, his counting stats fall short, while his rate stats remain amazing (Edgar could easily finish this season in the top-10 hitters all time for his career on-base percentage, and top-20 all-time for his career slugging percentage).
A friend of mine who is smart and frequently argues for the intangibles, momentum, and chemistry aspects of baseball says that his ultimate Hall of Fame standard is that a player must transcend the sport for a period of time, to almost rise above the game, and that no player should even be considered unless they have dominated and changed the game around them. I like that standard, because it means Will Clark gets in while Rafael Palmeiro doesn’t.
The Cardinals summoned Jason Isringhausen from his rehab assignment to Boston on Monday. While the assumption is that he will be activated and available when they resume play in Fenway on Tuesday, the Cardinals aren’t yet committing to the move. By the time you read this, the Cardinals will have made the move, but waiting and evaluating is the smart thing to do in this case. The usage patterns of Isringhausen will remain an open question even after he is activated. I remain unconvinced that Izzy is anything more than an injury time bomb, waiting to explode inside an unsuspecting bullpen.
While A.J. Burnett sits and waits for his elbow to heal enough to just play catch again, Josh Beckett is hoping to avoid the same fate. The Marlins appear to be cautious with the comeback of their young potential ace, but if you try and figure out what the Marlins have in mind, you’ll often find yourself grabbing nothing but smoke. Beckett was back on a mound for the first time, throwing occasional breaking balls in a 50-pitch workout. (Odd how the Marlins learn to count during rehabilitation work.) Beckett remains on target for a July 1 return, but the caution could push him back to the All-Star break or further.
Mike Hampton’s injured groin will only cause one missed start for him. For the Braves, the interleague schedule and the extra off days should help Cox and Mazzone juggle the rotation without taxing the staff. Hampton will likely be back on the mound by the weekend.
Esteban Loaiza remains a shining light in a dim White Sox season. Woody Williams has been well worth the Cardinals’ money. The Rangers’ defense remains the worst in baseball. Plus other Prospectus Triple Play news and notes from Chicago, St. Louis, and Texas.
Joe Sheehan checks in on the 2003 Mariners, and sees a lot of similarities to the 116-win powerhouse of 2001. Can Stand Pat Gillick help push this year’s club over the top?
On Saturday, Roger Clemens missed again in his third try for career win
No. 300. Clemens pitched well for 6 2/3 innings, but was forced out of the game
by an upper respiratory infection having thrown just 84 pitches. In his wake,
Juan Acevedo surrendered a monster three-run home run to Eric
Karros–not easy for a right-handed pitcher–that was the crushing blow in
a 5-2 loss.
Clemens, of course, is going to get No. 300. He’s still a very good pitcher, and there’s no reason to expect that this will turn into a chase like Early
Wynn’s. Wynn notched career win No. 297 in July of 1962, then had just two
wins in his final 11 starts that season. He returned in 1963 to win No. 300–and only No. 300, in 20 appearances–before hanging them up for good.
The interesting thing about this mini-chase is that by struggling to reach his
landmark number, Clemens is illustrating the problem with pitcher wins as a
performance metric.
Sammy Sosa explains why his bat was a little lighter than usual; Professor Robert Adair explains why it doesn’t matter; George Steinbrenner thinks the world is out to get him; Bobby Kielty reads from the gospel according to Earl Weaver; and Scott Elarton reminds us why Colorado is such a unique environment. All this and much more in the newest edition of The Week In Quotes.
Brad Ausmus has been a huge drag on the Astros’ season. The Brewers’ Richie Sexson is the best first baseman in the NL right now. The A’s are thrilled that Brad Sullivan fell into their laps. Plus other Prospectus Triple Play news and notes out of Houston, Milwaukee, and Oakland.
The good news is that Hee Seop Choi will be OK and shouldn’t have any lasting effects from his concussion Saturday. It’s a scary sight for people to see someone unconscious and “locked” as Choi was after his head whipped into the hard Wrigley dirt. After being unconscious for more than two minutes, being taken off with all precautions, and following each step the situation called for, including a night in the hospital, Choi should return in about two weeks, no worse for the wear. Concussions are an interesting beast and everyone will react differently, but it is not a football-type situation where Choi is a recurrence risk. He has as much chance of falling and hitting his head like that as you or I do–probably less. Several sources are pointing to insurance as the reason for the DL posting and this is quite likely the case. The treatment of Choi was textbook concussion management and there’s no reason that should stop when Choi left the field of play and entered the field of lawyers and actuaries. If nothing else, this is a great showcase for David Kelton…and one that could finally lead to a trade for the Cubs.
Joe Sheehan’s analysis of Joe Garagiola Jr.’s trade history included a challenge to keep an open mind. I’m trying to, especially in the case of the acquisition of Shea Hillenbrand. No trade should be analyzed by any one measure. By my favorite measure, MLVr, the Diamondbacks made out like bandits. By injury analysis, Hillenbrand’s oblique injury would cloud things, but Kim’s earlier DL stint would be ignored since it was a freak, traumatic occurrence. Trades probably can’t even be analyzed properly for three years or more, but their very nature demands that they be dissected in every column, blog, and toilet stall from Roxbury to Mesa. All we can tell in this moment is that the severity of Hillenbrand’s injury won’t decide the fate of the 2003 season for the Diamondbacks. That fate was probably sealed long ago.
B.J. Surhoff and Deivi Cruz have compormising pictures of Orioles management. Darren Dreifort’s latest injury has the Dodgers pondering his future yet again. The Brewers may have grasped the concept of sunk costs. The Phillies’ bullpen is a mess. News, notes, and Kahrlisms from 25 major league teams in the latest edition of Transaction Analysis.
There are open questions about Randy Johnson, and Friday’s UTK seems to have opened quite the can of worms surrounding the reigning Cy Young Award winner. As I reported, Johnson is having a series of injections to lubricate his knee and replace the missing cushion and lubrication that should naturally be there. The substance, Synvisc, is administered in a series of three injections, with the first performed Friday, the next scheduled on Tuesday and the final probably the next Friday. There are whispers coming from multiple sources that the Synvisc injections aren’t the solution, but merely a stopgap measure to try and get Johnson through the season. The underlying problem is rumored to be an osteochondral defect and the normal therapy for that is a microfracture surgery or reconfiguration of the bone through an osteotomy.
The problem is similar to that of Mo Vaughn, but a better recent comp is Marvin Benard. Benard had microfracture surgery, took about four months to get back into competitive shape, and has had some setbacks along the way. If Johnson can be babied through to the end of the season, he could have the more extensive surgery in the off-season. Still, despite the best efforts of a good Arizona medical staff, Johnson’s knee could flare up under the unusual stresses placed on the plant leg of a power pitcher. There’s nothing to say that the Unit can’t do it, but if you’re looking at risks, Johnson’s red light just started flashing.
In addition to the pitching problems, the Diamondbacks are placing David Dellucci on the DL after a concussion. The move is termed precautionary and was done more to add a body to the roster while Dellucci fully recovers than concern that he will take longer than expected to recover. Curt Schilling, Craig Counsell, Matt Mantei and Mike Koplove are some of the other key Diamondbacks on the DL for various lengths of time. It’s not just at the major league level either–they’re dropping like flies at the Triple-A level too. Remember that the arms still there, the ones not forced up to the majors by injury, are likely facing a heavier workload and more stress than expected.
The news on Vladimir Guerrero gets worse. The herniated L4/L5 disc is causing not only the painful immobility of his trunk and weakness and radiating pain to his legs, but there is some concern that there may be some stenosis associated with this problem. While the diagnosis of stenosis may not alter the timetable or protocol significantly, it does make it much more likely that Guerrero will be forced to undergo surgery at some point in the future. Guerrero’s response to epidural injections is now crucial. He’ll likely have at least two and perhaps three in hopes that surgery can be avoided. While the injury is comparable to that suffered by Ivan Rodriguez last season, the stenotic element makes this more concerning from a long-term perspective.
The Yankees trade for Ruben Sierra. It’s a bad deal now, just as it was a bad deal in 1995, writes Joe Sheehan. Plus Dusty Baker and his mishandling of the Cubs bullpen.