6-4-3: The American Way
5/02On Tuesday, Florida Marlins' starter A.J. Burnett underwent Tommy John surgery, after exploration of the elbow revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament. The surgery went well, and Burnett's expected to return fully healthy down the road. Previously, pitchers who have had this surgery take about a year, maybe a year and a half, to get back on the mound and eventually return to form. The procedure and rehab have become something of a commonplace miracle, despite the fact that the rehabilitation regimen's about as appealing as a porta-potty at the Stockton Asparagus Festival. The real issue here isn't Burnett, however unfortunate his injury is. We wish him the best, and I have no doubts that he'll push the rehab envelope and get back as soon as he can. The real issue here is painfully obvious--was this avoidable? You've already seen a number of perspectives about pitcher abuse, injury likelihood, and the very nature of pitching itself, so I won't go into too much detail here. I think the real interesting issue here is a long-underlying one that's been talked about, but never really addressed. That issue is the balance between performance, overwork, responsibility, and accountability when it comes to handling pitchers. So let's put aside the specific case of Burnett, and examine the issue.
6-4-3: Fun with Eddie Tufte
4/11There are lots of ways to present numeric information. In addition to just handing someone a big stack of numbers, you can create charts or graphs until the cows come home or the Tigers score five runs in a game--whichever comes first. In many circumstances, there will be some sort of an industry standard, and if you choose to diverge from that standard, you can bet that some of your very valuable time is going to be spent justifying your deviation from the norm. That's what's been going on in the baseball media and front offices for nearly a quarter century now--trying to change the norms of what information is used to evaluate players.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: What Can You Spell With Four Ps?
3/28For a long time, I've been trying to find someone who's at or near the top of the ladder in an MLB marketing department to talk to me about some of the unique challenges, opportunities, and practices in marketing an MLB club, and to give a spin-free answer to some of the tougher questions that readers have asked about MLB's policies over the years. On Thursday, I was fortunate enough to talk with the lead executive of an MLB club's marketing department, and they agreed to answer any questions I threw out, so long as I didn't give out their name.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: The Sin of the Politician
3/19There are certain occupations where mentioning the elephant in the room that everyone knows about but no one acknowledges can be hazardous to your continued livelihood. You can't find a single politician, for example, who thinks that Social Security is viable long term without significant benefit cuts or tax increases. And yet, because Joe Sheehan's assessment of Americans is, by and large, too charitable--and because we've all embraced the tragedy of the commons with such zeal--no elected official in their right mind will come out in favor of cutting Social Security benefits or dramatically raising taxes. So, instead of trying to solve the problem in advance, we'll wait until there's a crisis and do a half-assed job of fixing it down the road, when the problem's particularly acute, and the group that will take it in the shorts when that happens will be the group that's either demographically or electorally challenged. It's the way we do things. We don't often mention the elephant in the room, even though its presence is patently obvious. Last Saturday, Oakland A's owner Steve Schott flashed a spotlight on the elephant in the room.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: Draft Pickin’, Grinnin’, and Tradin’
3/14Under current MLB rules, teams are not allowed to trade draft choices. It's not a new idea, but it is under consideration, and we spoke with an AL Central executive about the potential impact of a change in the rules that would allow clubs to trade draft choices.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: Enhancing Performance
3/07Gary Huckabay goes head-to-head with a reader on the issue of performance-enhancing drugs, sets home improvement back a century, and looks forward to hazing BP's three new interns.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: Ratcheting
2/14Answering questions, overview of the league before spring training.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: 6-4-3: Accountability Corner: Part One
2/07Yes, we've missed a lot of stuff over the past eight years, and we'll miss a lot of stuff in the future. That's a large part of what makes the game so addictive and entertaining. You can make well-educated and reasoned assessments of a circumstance, and things can still end up completely surprising. It's more fun to be wrong about forecasting a player's collapse than it is to be right about it. Doesn't change the fact that we may have missed that one, but it is more fun.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: Maddux vs. Atlanta – Son of Big Exciting Contest
1/22Most people have never been involved in any sort of arbitration procedure. Arbitration is a process that falls under the umbrella of ADR, or Alternative Dispute Resolution. When people have a dispute over a contract, payment, or other agreement that they can't or won't come to a settlement on, arbitration is one of the avenues, short of a civil court, that people use to resolve the dispute.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: A Chat with Dave
11/15Since the reader response was copious and positive last time I published a rambling conversation with "Dave", I thought you all might enjoy this. Sorry about the infrequent updates, but it is the offseason, and more importantly, the BP staff is up to their collective neck in writing Baseball Prospectus 2003. Thanks for your patience. Below is an encapsulated conversation between myself and a close friend who's an insightful guy and dedicated baseball fan. Since I've mentioned him before in this space, and he's fond of his privacy, we'll call him "Dave" for purposes of this column. Dave is not affiliated with BP. Obviously, this is paraphrased, but has been run by Dave to make sure everything's on the up and up as far as he's concerned. I hope you enjoy this edited transcript as much I as enjoyed the conversation. It's long, and it's rambling, so perhaps you should check it out in small bites.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: Starvation Through Force Feeding
11/08Despite what you may have heard or read over the past several years, the information age has yet to actually arrive in business. Not a single company in the Wilshire 2000 has done anything near optimize how their organizations acquire, process, generate, and use information. Hundreds of billions of dollars have gone into investments in information technology in enterprises of every shape and size throughout the world, but overall productivity gains have been marginal.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: Whack a Mole
10/24If you truly believe that Pete Rose does not belong in The Hall of Fame, then why don't you disassociate yourself from the game completely. Baseball's ultimate honor belongs to Rose whether you believe he gambled on baseball or not. To say otherwise is to live in a world of fantasy! -- JK This guy went back to a column I wrote in June, 2001 in which I discussed the Pete Rose situation, so clearly, what he lacks in logic and a moral compass, he makes up for in tenacity.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: Versteckte Begeisterung
10/16So the team I hate the most in MLB is in the World Series. The Giants, who give me a few moments of joy with every error, and a sustained grin for upwards of 30 seconds with each loss, have earned the right to battle Disney's Hustlin' White Guys� in the World Series. I should be beside myself with either disdain or apathy.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: Reasonable Person Standard
8/02Reasonable Person Standard
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_right6-4-3: Reasonable Person Standard
8/02I got BP rolling many years ago in large part because of a forecasting system I had created called Vladimir. Vlad was basically a two-step system. The first step was categorization: What type of player is this? What is the shape of his performance? Is he a slow masher? A waterbug? A power-and-speed guy? How...
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