Prospectus Feature: The Daily Prospectus: Saturday Night
5/20Friday evening, Sophia and I on were on our way to have dinner on the west side when she suggested that we take our friends, Shelley and E.J., to the Dodgers game on Saturday night. You could have knocked me over with an eephus pitch.
Prospectus Feature: Park Factors: Through Six Weeks
5/17The middle of May is a good time to take a look at the park factors around the league. Granted, its waaayyy too early to draw firm conclusions about these; most teams still haven't finished home-and-homes with their opponents to date, and the overall sample size is still small enough that chance has a lot to do with the results. Fact is, though, it's a fun thing to look at.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: How Sure is a “Can’t Miss” Pitching Prospect?
5/09For this study, I estimated career VORP for the BA's top 100 prospects from 1990 through 1997, that is, those who have had at least five years to prove themselves. I used the rule of thumb that 10 runs of value moves one game into the win column. This is what I found:
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Aim for the Head: Dropping the Worst Starts
5/03There's some merit to the argument that a few starts can skew a pitcher's cumulative line, and there have been attempts, such as Michael Wolverton's Support-Neutral statistics to better model the maximum impact a single game can have on a pitcher's value.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Muser Era Ends
5/01There was little joy in watching the final, desperate days of the Tony Muser Era arrive at their inevitable conclusion. Nor was there any sense of anger or frustration from knowing how much opportunity has been wasted while we waited for the axe to fall.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Sensible Revenue Sharing: One Man’s Plan
4/18One of the most complex and bedeviling problems in baseball today is understanding to what extent large-market teams have an competitive advantage over small-market teams.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: No Petty Miracle: A Light in the Tigers’ Darkness
4/16Four months ago, Adam Pettyjohn was expected to compete for a spot in the Tigers' rotation. He can be forgiven for failing to live up to those expectations. You see, four months ago, Pettyjohn weighed more than Kate Winslet. Four months ago, he had a colon.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Not-in-Book Players: Some Guys We Missed
4/12Here's what we've been able to dredge up on the 29 guys we've identified as being on an Opening Day roster but not in Baseball Prospectus 2002.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Curse of the Moose
4/09I can think of only one good thing about Ken Griffey Jr.'s injury: it's a legend in the making, right up there with the Curse of the Bambino, and it reinforces why baseball is the greatest game on earth.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Body Armor Ban: Safety Takes a Back Seat
4/04A ludicrous slippery-slope response to baseball's recent announcement that they will enforce rules limiting the wearing of protective "body armor" at the plate? Of course it is. No one wants to see batters lose their head protection, no matter how much they crowd the plate.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Numbers (Part Eight): MLB vs. Forbes
4/03Add Forbes to the ever-growing list of those who don't believe MLB's cries of poverty.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: American League Predictions
3/31Our best guess at 2002's winners and losers.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: National League Predictions
3/30Our best guess at 2002's winners and losers.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: .Baseball In Seattle
3/28The Seattle Mariners are currently one of baseball's most successful franchises, playing in a beautiful, expensive stadium they didn't pay for, and fielding a well-funded team that won 116 games last season. According to Bud Selig's Guaranteed Accurate 2001 Financial Statement, they paid $18.8 million into the revenue sharing pool, a figure that matched the Florida Marlins' withdrawal from same.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Comparing Balance: Are the Yankees Unbeatable?
3/14There is no competitive balance problem in baseball, even in the latest period of Yankee pennants. Supposedly, the Yankees play an entirely different game than other teams. If this is true, we should see this in almost any metric we choose, but it's not there.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Numbers (Part Seven): Interest-ing
3/13As noted in my last column, operating losses account for only $232 million of the $519 million Major League Baseball claims to have lost in 2001. Another $112,491,000 represents net interest expenses. Here's how the interest was distributed.
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