Before claiming any success for any measure in predicting injury, we must fundamentally recognize that any PAP-style metric will be positively correlated with raw pitch counts. Pitchers with high pitch count totals will tend to have high PAP totals. If a PAP function provides no additional insight into which pitchers will be injured that pitch count totals alone, there is no reason to add the added complexity of a PAP system to our sabermetric arsenal.
Like the Mafia, or bandits like the Dillinger Gang, baseball is organized into loosely affiliated families and crews. Buddy Bell was an old associate of the Hart caporegime, so when he was out of work, he could fall in with some of his old partners in crime in Cleveland.
In my book, you can’t be an All-Star based on six weeks of good play. I absolutely hate that standard for picking All-Stars, and yet every year, we hear that some guy coming off the hottest month of his life should be an All-Star over an established star playing a bit below his level.
There was a lot of feedback on yesterday’s column, which included the All-Star ballot I filled out last Saturday. Almost all of the e-mail dealt with my choices in the AL’s outfield. The "16 outfielders" comment Hyperbole, folks. I wouldn’t really pick J.D. Drew over Manny Ramirez, but I certainly believe the NL has the…
The following article, written by Keith Woolner with Rany Jazayerli, appeared in Baseball Prospectus 2001. Analyzing PAP (Part One) PAP FAQ Table of Contents Long-term injury risk Pitch counts and injuries Data to be studied Identifying Injured Pitchers Defining Comparable Pitchers Career PAP as a Predictor of Injury The Workload Stress Metric The Injury Likelihood…