Statheads…often lament the intentional walk with an argument that usually goes like this: With a runner on third and one out, the expected runs scored for the inning are X. With the bases loaded and one out, that number is Y (higher than X). This argument normally makes sense, but in a situation where one run is all that matters, the manager should instead try to maximize the probability that no runs will score…Does walking the bases loaded with one out make sense on this basis?
As D.H. points out, the only thing that each manager need concern himself with is whether that one essential run scores. All the strategic elements of the game–hitting, baserunning, pitching, defense–are profoundly different under these conditions. What’s a manager to do?
Boyd Nation serves up the second installment in his series on college baseball and the College World Series with a guide to evaluating college pitchers (aka why Mark Prior is better than Todd Pennington).
The gasp was actually audible in Great American when Ken Griffey pulled off a swing, clutching at his shoulder. It was an emotional roller-coaster, as Griffey took the next Mike Mussina shot into the bleachers, then left the game. The worst-case scenario of a reinjured right shoulder wasn’t the case, luckily. Instead, Griffey appears to have injured his right biceps. It may not be a cascade, but likely, Griffey is using more arm in his swing or perhaps got his strength a bit out of balance in all the rehab done to get him back. He’s currently listed as day-to-day, but with the depth the Reds have in the outfield–and Bob Boone’s cluelessness in how to utilize it properly–they can afford to take their time.
Curiously, the Dodgers listed ‘strained medial collateral ligament’ as the cause when they placed Darren Dreifort on the DL today. The current thought is that the arthritic problems in Dreifort’s knee were the result of a cascade. This particular cascade was the result of the lack of cartilage causing a hypermobile joint, overstressing the ligaments. Finally, the MCL was strained a bit too much and now Dreifort once again finds himself on the DL. For now, he’ll avoid surgery and will hope that a new bracing system will help him pitch. The Dodgers are working hard to figure out how to best use Dreifort to maximum advantage while minimizing his exposure.
While it’s not a big breaking news story to UTK readers, Troy Percival is expected to return to the Angels bullpen on Saturday. The worry now is that he’s altered his motion significantly enough to endanger his arm in…yes, a cascade. There was an article yesterday that had a scout worried about the torque that Percival was putting on his arm since he’d altered the leg kick. I haven’t seen the motion, but it’s worth tucking that tidbit away. In other Halo news, Darin Erstad appears to be doing well in his rehab and is due back early next week.
The Angels’ defense has fallen hard; Sammy Sosa was caught with a corked bat (perhaps you’ve heard?); and the Tigers have to redefine the term, ‘Star Performer.’ All this and other news regarding the Anaheim Angels, Chicago Cubs, and Detroit Tigers.