The Diamondbacks lead the wild card chase–how do their chances at an NL West crown look? The Royals have opened up a 4.5-game lead in the AL Central, despite multiple setbacks. Larry Bowa, Greg Gross or both may be to blame for some of the Phillies’ offensive deficiencies. These and other news and notes out of Arizona, Kansas City, and Philadelphia in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
One of the criticisms of the various formulae used to evaluate baseball players is that they don’t take into account everything that happens on a ballfield. Runs Created, Equivalent Average, VORP, et al rely on a player’s stat line to measure his performance, and there are elements of the game that escape the statistics. (It should be noted that with the increased availability of play-by-play information, more rigorous methods which use this data are being developed.)
The issue is a minor one. As Bill James put it nearly 20 years ago, an elephant walking through the snow leaves tracks. If baserunning, or clutch performance, or leadership, or any of the things often cited as critical omissions were that important, things like Runs Created or EqA wouldn’t correlate with actual runs as well as they do. In the big picture, what we can measure dwarfs the what we cannot, and allows us to use our analytical tools with confidence.
I bring this up somewhat tangentially because I’ve been seeing a lot of ridiculous baserunning the last couple of weeks
Vin Scully broke the news that Brian Jordan has elected to have season ending surgery to re-repair his patellar tendon. Jordan has indicated that surgery likely means the end of his career, but this hasn’t been made official yet. Jordan’s loss will further cripple an already limping Dodger offense. The question of insurance may decide how Dan Evans moves forward, but the opacity of these transactions means we’ll likely never know the effect.
While there’s no hard data, there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to implicate the hard turf at Stade Olympique. Jim Thome is the latest to have problems with his back there, and the Phillies aren’t taking any chances. Thome was lifted during Tuesday’s game and was out of the lineup for Wednesday. Team sources say he’ll be back at first when the team moves on to New York.
Transaction talk isn’t my beat, but some moves say more about a team than anything else off the field. With Kevin Mench down for eight weeks while his fractured hand heals, the Rangers called up Laynce Nix. I’m sure Jamey Newberg (of the phenomenal Newberg Report) is excited to see the future in Arlington, but one problem with seeing the future is that it usually means the present sucks. Mench should return in the normal timeframe with no serious effects. There were some rumors that Mench was headed to Cleveland, but a source on both sides of that deal denied anything was close.
What I really want is a “put up or shut up” game in which a team of random players–no stars, this would be a great place to play an all-rookie game, for instance, or give some exposure to the best bench players in the league–face off against fans who say that pro players are overpaid and pampered, and if the fans win, they get a Wily Mo Pena contract and $1 million in a giant novelty check, but if they lose, they have to stop acting stupid for a year.
I love this idea, but it should be even more humiliating. When you start out, the players will score a zillion runs, as the fans go hitless, unable to hit a breaking pitch. So then you offer to reset the score and spot them a pitcher: someone decent from Triple-A, maybe, but it’s double the stakes: the fans have to shut up for two years or, if they win, get $2 million and a spot on a 25-man roster as a pinch-runner. Now it’s interesting: against major league pitching, a replacement-level pitcher’s going to give up five, six runs…with an ordinary defense, and the fans aren’t ordinary. The players bunt down the lines mercilessly and score over and over. Offer to reset the score again, and stop bunting, even spot the fans 20 runs in a four-inning game, but it’s for four times the money and if the fans lose, they can’t say a bad word about player salaries, lifestyles, or anything related for the rest of their lives.