The Orioles scored a windfall in their trade of Sidney Ponson. The Rockies’ pitching has shockingly been worse on the road than at home. The Mets need to get a first baseman’s mitt for Mike Piazza. These and other news and notes out of Baltimore, Colorado, and New York in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
If Pete Rose is, in fact, reinstated after the season, as previously reported, he becomes eligible to be placed on the Hall of Fame ballot. For many fans, his on-the-field qualifications are a foregone conclusion. As baseball’s all-time hits leader, 17-time All Star, the 1973 MVP, and key member of the Big Red Machine, it’s hard to deny that Rose has some impressive credentials. And indeed, baseball fans voted him onto the All-Century Team as one of the finest players of the 20th century. However, there’s been a reassessment of Rose’s value as a player over the past 15 years, as sabermetrics has advanced our understanding of how offenses work, and how teams win. As the importance of On-Base Percentage has been recognized, and measures such as OPS (On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging average) have become popular, Rose has become a poster boy for the overrated star–one whose game consisted of hitting a lot of singles, and posting a high but empty batting average. Some have gone as far as to say that Rose doesn’t deserve to be in the Hall of Fame on the merits of his playing career, even excluding any gambling controversy. But is this a revisionist history by the statheads, or an honest, updated assessment of a former star?
For the third season in a row, Barry Bonds is the best player in the National League. His overall performance is stupendous–.341/.521/.755–so good that even a peak performance by Albert Pujols–.370/.436/.686–doesn’t quite measure up. Bonds’ significant performance edge makes up for Pujols’ extra playing time, so he leads in advanced metrics like Runs Above Replacement Position (RARP) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP).
Whether Bonds will be able to win his sixth Most Valuable Player award is yet to be seen. He is the biggest reason for the Giants’ runaway in the NL West, but he’ll be fighting some biases. In recent years, BBWAA awards have become about the best story, and Pujols is seen in many quarters to be the better story. If the Cardinals earn a playoff spot, Pujols will be perceived as the reason, despite the fact that three of his teammates (Edgar Renteria, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen) are also among the 10 best players in the league.
Ramiro Mendoza mercifully heads to the DL for the Red Sox. Sandy Alomar Jr. is a waste of space for the White Sox. The Indians and Blue Jays sort through their multiple catching options. The Twins continue to jerk around their young talent. The Giants’ big lead may get a lot smaller without their starting middle infield. These and other tidbits and Kahrlisms in this edition of Transaction Analysis.
Was J.D. Drew held out of games in anticipation of a trade? That remains unclear, but according to the Cardinals, Drew has an oblique strain that he suffered during batting practice on Saturday. Drew was not in the lineup for a fifth consecutive day when the Pirates took on the Cardinals, Tuesday. It is unclear when Drew may return to the lineup.
Reports differ on the return date for Mike Piazza, but suffice it to say it will happen soon. Adding to the intrigue are published reports that Piazza intends to ask out, in order to continue catching, and to spare himself from what he sees as a long rebuilding process. Piazza had expressed interest in extending his rehab assignment in order to make sure he’s not rusty upon his return, but the call-up could come as early as Wednesday. In Norfolk, Piazza has passed every test.
Rick Reed has had his share of injuries this season, as have most of his mates in the Twins rotation. And yet, the AL Central crown is still within reach, so each injury is of magnified importance. Joe Mays took the hill in place of Reed in Tuesday’s game and was as successful as he had been earlier in the season. The Twins are surely looking on the horizon for help from Eric Milton.
The Red Sox ended Tuesday night four games behind the Yankees in the AL East. What are the odds that they can make up that deficit to take the division? And, failing that, what are their chances to edge out the A’s for the wild card?
Seriously. Grab a pencil and a piece of paper, come up with your best guesstimate, and write it down. Harder than you thought, huh? Keep reading, and we’ll have an answer for you in a bit.
Whether they realize it or not, major league teams are making calculations like this all the time. Implicitly or explicitly, they can determine the direction that a team chooses to take: whether to move prospects for veterans at the trade deadline, whether to shut a young pitcher down for the season, or try (injury risk be damned) to get as much work out of him as they can. Wins are the currency that baseball transacts in, but for many purposes, they’re only as good as the pennants and postseason appearances that they can be redeemed for. Much as some pundits like to talk about Mystique, Aura, and Veteran Leadership, the postseason is a lottery of sorts. Winning 11 playoff games is often a lot easier than winning 90 or 95 in the regular season, and many teams consider their season a success if their postseason ticket is punched, and they get to take their chance in the playoffs.