With three weeks left in the season, it’s the most wide-open playoff race in years. Half of the franchises in Major League Baseball are within three games of a playoff spot, and fans in places as unlikely as Kansas City, Miami, and the north side of Chicago are starting sentences with “If the postseason started today.” Of course, having so many teams in contention leads to lots of questions. What if the Yankees and Red Sox end up tied for the AL East lead? What if they have the same record as the Mariners? What if the Cubs, Cardinals and Astros end up tied for the NL Central lead? What if five teams tie for the Wild Card? Inquiring minds want to know. Many of these questions can be answered by reading through the playoff tie-breaker scenarios that Major League Baseball used to have on its Web site, but those rules have a couple of serious flaws: 1. Understanding them is about as easy as filling out a 1040 long form. 2. Major League Baseball has changed them, but hasn’t told anyone yet. Using the most current information from MLB, here are the possibilities. Additional reporting was conducted to fill in some of the gaps MLB left out.
It is an awfully good time to be a baseball fan in Chicago, with teams on both sides of town good bets to reach the post-season, something that hasn’t happened since the Cubs and Sox met in the World Series of Base Ball in 1906. In their honor, let’s take look at the dynamics of the two-team market in Chicago. It’s a well-established fact that teams that have a rival in their own market compete for scarce resources like television and radio contracts, media exposure, and fan loyalty. For those reasons, it’s safe to assume that a club in a two-team market will not make as much money, or draw as many fans, as if it had the market all to itself. But we want to get at a somewhat more specific question here: How much does the success or failure (as opposed to the mere presence) of the crosstown rival affect the success of the other club?
When in doubt, I know I have three things that always go in my favor. First, I have the crew at BP. Even when they’re working on their own incredible stuff, each member is always just a phone call or an email away. Second, I have my team of sources and advisors. Though recent events have shaken some of the weaker sources into clamming up (for now), I still have one of the best phone books in the biz. Finally, and most importantly, I have you, the subscribers. From asking for help getting velocity, to technical assistance, to the most intelligent emails, I’m always happy to look in my Inbox and find new stuff from you.
Now, I’m asking you for some more suggestions on how to turn UTK into something you want to read in the off-season. What would you like to see? Those of you that made the journey with me from UTK 1.0 last year know that the off-season is…well, pretty dry when it comes to injury info. So please send in your suggestions. Those of you that have gotten to know me in person at Feeds, through email, or vicariously through this column know that I don’t sleep, so please, keep me working through the (literally) dark days of the winter. Yes, first priority is getting the Velocity Project in some sort of presentable form and I have a big date circled for late November, but everything else…once again, I’m counting on you.
Powered by Warren Zevon in my iTunes, on to the injuries…
Will the last person out of Bank One Ballpark please turn out the lights?
The Diamondbacks have gone 21-29 since the All-Star break and look like they’ll be the next team to exit the NL’s wild-card race. With last night’s 3-1 loss to the Dodgers (and 20-year-old, MLB-debut-making Edwin Jackson), the Snakes are seven games out in the race and trailing five teams, which is as good a comp for “done” as you’ll find.
Now, the easy thing is to look at the injuries the D’backs suffered this season and excuse their disappointing performance. Twenty million or so dollars invested in Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson have produced just 36 starts with an ERA of 3.54 and an SNVA of 5.4. That’s a lot of pitching to replace, and it would be difficult for any team to recover from that.
The O’s get a return on one of the their most valuable parts. The Rockies would be wise to sell high on Jay Payton. And Jason Phillips has been a nice surprise for a Mets team that’s been out of the race since Memorial Day. All this and much more news from Baltimore, Colorado, and New York in your Wednesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.