This time I’m going to turn my attention to the reigning World Champion Florida Marlins. I’ve seen it proclaimed in more than one corner that last year’s model was mostly the fine work of Dave Dombrowski, with his successor, Larry Beinfest, adding only a complementary tweak or two. So let’s find out whether that’s true. You may recall that I performed a similar exercise with the ’03 Red Sox last year. The methodology will be the same this time around. Using Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), let’s see how much Beinfest’s acquisitions contributed compared to Dombrowski’s.
In the first part of our winter leagues study, we looked at what the player performances said about each league’s level of quality. In Part II, we’ll look at what player performance in these leagues say about a player’s future.
In our last report, the Round Robin playoffs were in the first week of action and the surprising Cibao Gigantes led the pack with a 4 and 1 record, with the weakening Azucareros in last place with a reversed record of 1 and 4. Meanwhile, the heavily-favored Aguilas and Licey were 3-2 and 2-3 respectively, but both were seemingly moving in opposite directions at the time. The Aguilas had won their last two games against Licey, and Licey had lost their last three, looking flat on the field and on the verge of a prolonged losing streak.
But on January 9th, second baseman Luis Castillo (Marlins) rejoined the club and D’Angelo Jimenez (Reds) was moved to shortstop for the injured Cristian Guzman (Twins), and that night Licey started a nine-game winning streak that virtually catapulted the team to the final series. The streak tied the longest in the history of the Round Robin playoffs, also established by Licey in 1998. The team had solid offensive performances from Eric Byrnes (Athletics) (.375/.434/.563, and a new playoff record 20 RBI), José Offerman (.338/.423/.500), Castillo (.442 OBP), Jimenez (.403 OBP), Timo Perez (Mets), Izzy Alcantara, and at the end of the series, Carlos Peña (Tigers) and Henry Rodriguez, each hitting key home runs in the middle of the winning streak.
On the pitching side, José Jimenez (Indians) won his four starts with a 1.13 ERA, Vladimir Nuñez (Rockies) had a 1.35 ERA in 21 innings, and veteran Rafael Roque was moved from the bullpen to the starting rotation and didn’t allow a single run in two starts. These three pitchers were key, because the Tigers lost Juan Cruz (Cubs) after just two starts with an injured non-throwing hand, and Salomón Torres (Pirates), who battled a severe case of the flu, and managed to pitch just two innings in the semifinals.