If you’re anyone other than a key decision maker for most teams in baseball, you’re probably aware that you shouldn’t place too much emphasis on spring training stats. Besides the obvious (to most) sample-size caveats, there’s also a litany of other reasons not to take Cactus or Grapefruit League numbers terribly awfully really very seriously. For one, an inordinate amount of the playing time goes to reclamation projects, prospects not quite ready for competition at the highest level, minor league vagabond types or veteran performers tinkering around with a new pitch or reconstructed swing. It’s simply not the sort of premium level of competition you’ll find in regular season contests. While spring training numbers should be taken more seriously than, say, laundry instructions or warning labels on beer, they’re still not to be imbued with head-slapping importance. All that said, this time out I’m going to take a look at a handful of spring performances that do have a reasonable degree of import for one reason or another.
In 1980, the world witnessed a hockey Miracle. In 1999, the United States watched its down-and-out Ryder Cup team explode into a jarring celebration on the 17th green. We love international competition. In 2005, we’re hoping to see a rumored World Cup of Baseball.
So, as is our wont, we’ve started poking into some numbers. Assuming the World Cup comes to fruition, and assuming (big assumption) everybody plays, how might the teams stack up?
So far, it’s been all U.S. On the hitting side, we named eight starting position players to come up with each team’s total MLVr+D, a crude measure of hitting and defense, measured in terms of runs plus or minus Major League average. We focused only on those countries with a sufficient number of players in Major League Baseball to field teams: the U.S., the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico (treated as a separate country just for fun), and Venezuela. At the end of our analysis it was readily apparent that Team U.S.A., and even a Second Team U.S.A., had more than enough firepower to cover the competition–so we posited a “World” team made up of all other countries except the U.S. mainland.
The biggest question mark on the Angels’ postseason hopes is the back of Vladimir Guerrero. He’s the new poster boy for trunk and core strengthening, coming out of a specialized program to counteract the effects of a disc problem. Like Ivan Rodriguez before him, Guerrero worked hard and showed no signs of any recurrence. He’s been wearing a brace throughout spring training, but it’s merely precautionary. The worst-case scenario is a recurrence which could be treated through similar conservative therapy or surgery. The downside given his value isn’t that great. The biggest actual concern is Troy Glaus. His shoulder, repaired in the off-season, might force him across the diamond. That slot is now held down by Erstad, who’s better off in center according to pretty much everyone not employed by the Angels. For now, Garret Anderson, who has a bum right shoulder, takes center field and faces a situation similar to Bernie Williams’ last season. The injury causes Anderson trouble both throwing and extending his arms and could eat into his power slightly. Anderson moved over to make room for Guerrero and Guillen. Yes, Virginia, it is possible to have too much talent sometimes.
The Braves may have Hung Jaret Wright out to dry. The Twins need to find room for their 7,529 outfielders. The Devil Rays have pitching issues. These and other news and notes in this Wednesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.