If you’ve taken some time to explore the depth charts that are part of our new Fantasy product, you may have noticed the team-by-team projections for run scored, runs allowed, and W-L record. There’s a lot of hard work that went into generating these numbers. Runs scored are projected through what I believe to be very accurate lineup simulator program, combining the individual hitter PECOTAs and accounting for playing time at each position and in each batting order slot. Runs allowed are estimated in a similar fashion, and a W-L record is generated by combining these two figures by using the Pythagenport formula. These are good projections. I pretty much limit my gambling activities to poker and an NCAA Tournament pool or two (Go Yellow Jackets!), but if you happen to be in Vegas or something, you could make some good money by betting on these.
One thing the original version of the projections didn’t account for is strength of schedule. That never used to be much of a concern in baseball, but given both the imbalanced divisional schedule, and imbalanced interleague matchups, it can make a palpable bit of difference, especially in the case of a team like the Blue Jays that will play nearly a quarter of its schedule against the AL East Nuclear Superpowers.
With that in mind, let’s run through the divisions and evaluate each team in these departments…
Pokey takes over at short after Nomar hits the Red Sox DL. Paul DePodesta’s old mates gift him with Jayson Werth and Jason Grabowski. Clay Condrey may need to enter the witness protection program after landing in Philly. The Pads and Cards exchange crappy, speedy outfielders. These and other happenings in a special Saturday edition of Transaction Analysis.
Choosing between the top two teams in the American League is an exercise in predicting the future. Any analysis of the current rosters is going to be inadequate, because what will separate these two come September are the relative health of the teams’ stars, what the two teams do to add players in-season, and what happens in the 19 games the two will play against each other. In light of that, my selection of the Red Sox seems a bit strange. After all, they’ll play seven games against the Yankees this month without Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon, two major parts of their lineup. Moreover, the Sox don’t have any obvious holes that they can address in the trade market, whereas the Yankees can get better by acquiring a second baseman and a starting pitcher. Moreover, the Yankees’ willingness to take on any contract at any time–a trait that should only become more pronounced after last week’s court victory that assures the YES Network of considerable revenue–means that they are a threat to acquire any player in the game. I’ll still take the Sox.