Closest Matchup (Teams with records most resembling one another): Texas @ Cincinnati
Anyway you smack the numbers around, the Reds are riding for a fall. As we all know, teams that get outscored the way they have don’t fare well in the long run. Going into last night’s game against Philadelphia, the Reds had been outpolled by 24 runs. This put them five or six games ahead of where they should be, depending on which version of the Pythagorean you want to use. Having said that, you can find that entire 24-run differential in their meltdown against the A’s last week. If you toss that series away, they’d actually be 284-284 in runs scored and runs against. This still means they’re playing over their heads, but not by as much. Are we letting one disastrous series get in the way of assessing them honestly? On the other hand, that disastrous series helped call attention to the fact that this was a team riding a little too high.
Do you miss the time when a 34-28 record was a 34-28 record? You know, back in the good old days, when they didn’t used to clog the mind by putting the number of runs a team scored and allowed right there so you could make your own value judgments. Actually, newspapers still don’t do that. Instead, they give us streak info and interleague play records. What is interesting is that the NFL standings have had the points for and against since…well, ever since I can remember. When you think about it, with a smaller schedule, NFL PF/PA can get skew a lot worse than a baseball record can. I’d like to see newspaper sport sections leap into the 21st Century and start including runs scored and runs against, wouldn’t you?
As the Reds engage in a Cubs-like June swoon, the injuries keep kicking them down. D’Angelo Jimenez was once considered the equal of Alfonso Soriano, and at times this season he’s shown why. The Reds have him benched, hoping a slight oblique strain won’t turn into anything more. With Barry Larkin slowed and Brandon Larson being…well, Brandon Larson, the Reds are shorthanded up the middle. Austin Kearns is expected back on Thursday. His return won’t stop the team’s decline or the inevitable trade of some Reds players.
I’ve heard everything from a rib injury to a groin strain, but something is clearly not right with Roy Oswalt. One e-mailer said that Oswalt appeared to strain his groin in his last start, but the Astros deny that Oswalt has had any problems since his off-season surgery. Last night Rick Sutcliffe picked up the “rib injury” baton and ran with it. I’m not sure exactly what it means, but I’ll guess it’s an oblique strain. If so, with Oswalt’s delivery, he’d be cringing on every pitch, which isn’t the case. I’m not sure what the problem is, but until we get better evidence, it’s best to just note the result and watch the performances.
In the ongoing debate about pitch counts, there’s some interesting questions that just aren’t making it into the debate. Is it about a macho attitude or risk management? Do you want an honest pitcher or a “bulldog”? At what point is your ace fatigued enough that even the worst reliever in a major league bullpen becomes a better option? Jake Peavy is one of the young players quickly developing a bulldog reputation. After missing only a couple weeks with a forearm injury, Peavy is back out throwing. His first bullpen session went 30 pitches, reporting no problems and no pain. He’ll have two more bullpen sessions this week, but Friday’s session is the most important. That’s where he’ll first try breaking balls. His slider is the pitch that causes pain. If all goes well, Peavy is about two weeks away, and will have one rehab start before rejoining the Pads rotation.
On Sunday, I was watching the Long Beach State/Arizona game, eventually won by
the Wildcats in 11 innings. There were a couple of things that popped up in
the 11th, during Arizona’s game-winning rally, that I wanted to examine.
The bottom of the inning began with Long Beach third baseman Danny Mocny
making a terrible throw on a ground ball by UA’s Moises Duran. The error put
Duran on second base with no one out. Wildcats’ shortstop Jason Donald came up
and immediately showed bunt.
Now, this is a situation we see all the time in MLB. A team gets the
game-winning run to second base with no one out, and tries to bunt him over to
third. I’m not questioning that tactic; as James Click’s recent series on sacrificing showed,
that’s a viable use of the bunt, even if everyone east of Belmont Shore knew
it was coming. My problem is with what Long Beach State didn’t do.
I don’t get along with my team. We’ve disagreed over how the team’s been run, from who’s been put in the lineup to who’s being drafting. Since the ownership group bought the team to save it from possibly moving, they’ve seemed eager to support Bud Selig and MLB in whatever crazy scheme they come up with. I would bet there are many baseball fans with similarly strained relationships with the teams they support.
The Mariners have made it clear in the past that they’re interested in acquiring only character guys who are good in the clubhouse, even at the expense of the on-field product. Someone ran some numbers and said “Lovable sells.” So the clubhouse troublemakers, the lawyers and the quiet smart guys are all purged once the team takes a dislike to them.
The problem is that the M’s are willing to do almost anything to get rid of players that fans perceive as having negative qualities or being a problem, while at the same time they’re willing to pick up good clubhouse guys with baggage if they think they can get away with it. The Mariners will pick up a guy like Al Martin, who got into a nasty tussle with his backup wife in Arizona, resulting in a lot of counseling and a pinch of jail time. Martin, for his potential legal and character issues, was and remains known for having a great work ethic, an easy guy to get along with on a team, and a good clubhouse presence. The Mariners brought in a bigamist who’d bust up a much smaller secondary wife while running their “Refuse to Abuse” campaign against domestic violence…because they wanted a left-handed bat.